28 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Potpourri: Heat drama, Mavericks, and the waiting game
By: Rahat Huq

• So this was odd.  ESPN\'s Brian Windhorst reports on some apparent acrimony between former Heat teammates Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and Lebron James, with the two holdovers presumably harboring some resentment towards the league\'s best player.  It\'s understandable that Wade and Bosh may be hurt a bit by how things played out, with James leaving, but...really?  This is where self-awareness is invaluable.  Wade reportedly stated in a recent interview that \"he didn\'t have fun last season\", leading one to wonder if that might not have been the case had he actually suited up for a majority of the team\'s games.  As for Bosh, this gives rise to an interesting question.  Would he have preferred James stay, causing him to sign for just $10mill-$13million, or would he prefer the rich $120million extension he landed upon James\' departure?  
• We touched a little on the Kevin Durant injury in this week\'s podcast (which, as will be the case with all future podcasts, is embedded into the sidebar to the right of the page), unexpectedly finding ourselves in stark disagreement over the ramifications.  I think the Thunder toil along at .500 until Durant returns, digging a hole for themselves that will ultimately prove insurmountable.  My esteemed colleague felt OKC wouldn\'t really miss much of a beat, except against the league\'s elite.  Regardless of how things ultimately play out, the gap between Houston and the Thunder is larger than most around here believe, and that gap has only widened since the departure of key players this summer.
• As excited as I am for the season, it\'s a bit discouraging to realize we again are back at the \"waiting game\" we thought would be over by this point in time.  Any honest observer knows this team, as currently composed, cannot compete for a championship, without some significant addition.  Most feel that addition will eventually come, but developing chemistry with that missing piece will also take up valuable time.
• For the progress Houston has purportedly made on the defensive end, due to this summer\'s transactions, one underestimated consequence which is not getting enough pub is the increased offensive burden on James Harden.  Things should even out upon the acquisition of the mythical \"third star\", but in the interim, Houston will need to look to Harden to generate an even greater majority of its offense.  Because he couldn\'t create, its easily forgotten just how many plays Chandler Parsons served as the primary playmaker last season: while he can\'t beat his man off the dribble, he can set the table nicely for others when using a pick.
• The big question from preseason at the moment appears to be the matter of backup point guard where a) Nick Johnson really isn\'t a point guard (at least yet) b) Ish Smith can\'t shoot and c) Isaiah Canaan can\'t defend.  However, that far deep on the bench, you\'re not looking for warts but rather virtues.  No backup will be a complete player.  If they were a complete player, that guy would be a starter somewhere.  So the question becomes \"which one of these guys can do something better than the other guys can do something, and enough to offset his warts?\"  Initially, I think the answer is Ish Smith, especially given the overall lack of playmakers on this team.

[thenit]

I think OKC will be able to play above .500 ball until KD returns. We might get a couple of games ahead of that team except that I believe the lack of a clear cut sixth man and a proven scorer of the bench that can avg 10ppg will force us to play our stars for 40+ min a game. This will pay it's toll towards the end of the season.

I'm hopeful that we will get an addition like rondo as Rahat alluded to before the transfer window and that would make an impact both defensively and offensively. I don't think we will get a top 3 seed, just can't see us surpass any of those teams. We can hope for home court in the first round.

[Mason Khamvilay]

So the question becomes "which one of these guys can do something better than the other guys can do something, and enough to offset his warts?

Very interesting Rahut. So essentially we want the most ideal 6th man. I have found that many questions regarding choices in thr near future can be answered by looking at history, and within history I believe lies the blueprint behind this concept of an ideal 6th man.

Jamal Crawford
Isaiah Thomas
Manu Ginobili
Ben Gordon
Jason Terry
Leonardo Barbosa
James Harden

Every one of these former winners of the 6th man award share a common strength and a common weakness. Every one of them are/were capable scorers, and every one had questionable defense.

I believe that when deciding whether to start a good defender or a good scorer, most teams would lean towards the good defender in most cases. Not all cases, but most. I believe a big reasoning behind this is the fact it's a lot harder to play defense once the team is in the foul limit. With that being said, it is my belief that our most ideal 2nd string point guard is Isaiah Canaan--averaged roughly 22 ppg and 8 assists in the D-League while playing minimal defense.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I just realized I included Isaiah Thomas in that list of 6th man award winners, that was a mistake, but I do believe he fits the blueprint and is one of the favorites to win the 6th man award this season.

[PhillyCheese]

"... the gap between Houston and the Thunder is larger than most around here believe, and that gap has only widened since the departure of key players this summer." I agree with that statement.  OKC beat the Rockets without Westbrook, and I think they can do the same without Durant.  That team is deep.  Houston needs to find one more playmaker to even get back to last year's level.  I don't think the defensive improvements are sufficient to offset the loss in offense, unless Harden decides he needs to play both ends of the court and the PF spot gets to league avg level defensively.

[Steven]

Agreed the Rockets improved their team, while the Thunder got worse. The gap is defiently widening.

[Willk]

"... the gap between Houston and the Thunder is larger than most around here believe, and that gap has only widened since the departure of key players this summer." I agree with that statement. OKC beat the Rockets without Westbrook, and I think they can do the same without Durant. That team is deep. Houston needs to find one more playmaker to even get back to last year's level. I don't think the defensive improvements are sufficient to offset the loss in offense, unless Harden decides he needs to play both ends of the court and the PF spot gets to league avg level defensively.

the Rockets improved their defense and rebounding ,then they got rid of their two softest players (Lin and Parsons). OKC lost their best player, yep the gap is widening.

[Alituro]

There's a huge difference in being without Westbrook than being without Durant. That's like saying Miami could be a contender this year even with a fully healthy Wade. OKC will still make the playoffs, but probably won't have home court which will be their demise. I just don't see the huge gap between us as stated. Especially if the "3-star" model is a big factor, because OKC has no 3rd star and the next in talent behind RW and KD is Ibaka who is not leagues, if at all better than Ariza. From there down I don't see any edge in OKC's favor. The biggest advantage they have over us, like SA, is that they've been together for so long as a unit (they're not as well coached though). Oh, and I like the idea of Ariza guarding KD (or anyone else for that matter) much, much better than Mr. Pretty Boy. So, we have a huge offensive advantage at the 2 and 5 vs OKC, and our counterparts to their stars in Beverley and Ariza are defenders capable of hindering their stars' game. They don't have defensive answers for Harden and Howard (they could play Perkins if they want,  ). Personally, as built now, I think we are designed to beat OKC, specifically. LAC and SA may be different stories though.

 

"... the gap between Houston and the Thunder is larger than most around here believe, and that gap has only widened since the departure of key players this summer." I agree with that statement.  OKC beat the Rockets without Westbrook, and I think they can do the same without Durant.  That team is deep.  Houston needs to find one more playmaker to even get back to last year's level.  I don't think the defensive improvements are sufficient to offset the loss in offense, unless Harden decides he needs to play both ends of the court and the PF spot gets to league avg level defensively.

 

*OKC beat a Howard-less Rockets without Westbrook.

 

We did not lose any "playmakers" this offseason.

 

I saw a stat flash across the screen in last nights game that stated Jones as 3rd among 2nd year players in points in the paint.

So, we've got that going for us, which is nice.

[redfaithful]

Personally, as built now, I think we are designed to beat OKC, specifically. LAC and SA may be different stories though.

 

There's the issue of getting to play SA or LAC, which might involve playing MEM, DAL, GS or POR which didn't work well last year.

[rocketrick]

"... the gap between Houston and the Thunder is larger than most around here believe, and that gap has only widened since the departure of key players this summer." I agree with that statement.  OKC beat the Rockets without Westbrook, and I think they can do the same without Durant.  That team is deep.  Houston needs to find one more playmaker to even get back to last year's level.  I don't think the defensive improvements are sufficient to offset the loss in offense, unless Harden decides he needs to play both ends of the court and the PF spot gets to league avg level defensively.

OKC is deep? Really? Alrighty, we shall find out by Thanksgiving. Gobble, Gobble.....pass the Sweet Potato Casserole Please..............

[Buckko]

They also improved their shooting.

[thenit]

I don't think the gap is widening, however  we are still way behind in terms of depth and talent. They have a good young proven backup PG in Jackson, Ibaka is a force in the paint and has a mid range shot. They have 2 top ten players which are slightly better than ours at the moment. Harden may push that in our favor with improved D, but Howard isn't getting better nor younger.  2 Centers that can keep Howard in check.

 

I think the gap is closing but we are still a trade away to make it close. I just don't see us beating Clippers or OKC with full squad unless 2 of our young rotation/bench players takes a huge leap and we also get another player via trade. Spurs ; I just don't know, we match up well against them and eventually they have to run out of steam but the water they are drinking over there is the fountain of youth. So we will still end up as a 4 seed or maybe lower in my opinion. I love to be wrong though

[Alituro]

There's the issue of getting to play SA or LAC, which might involve playing MEM, DAL, GS or POR which didn't work well last year.

Well, having to beat good teams is always the path isn't it? A couple shots going in or out last playoff series, could have made for a different story (for any team). I think we are a better team this year than the 4 you mentioned and better than an OKC that has no KD.

[clydesmoustache]

Though I am not going to argue that the okc gap has widened after they just lost the second best player in the world, I do think we still can't take them lightly. Beverley is a hawk defensively but cannot contain westbrook (i know most cant but he creates nightmares for me) and Jackson usually plays well against us (You can't hide harden on defense with those two). Perkins is a bum unless he plays Dwight Howard. I thought the officiating was a disgrace last year how perkins and adams were riding Howard but will that change come playoffs? Ibaka vs TJones worries me as well. Two years ago when okc beat us without westbrook, sefolosha was in form as a harden stopper. That is our main mismatch as i dont see that void being filled and our bench! Will McHale use it though?

[Cooper]

KD isn't out that long they're still a lock for a top 3 seed. Perkins lives in Howard's head and Adams is working on getting a lease we would need an unreal Harden performance to take okc to 7 in a series. Hard to overcome the 2nd best player in the world + westbrook and Ibaka with a big mismatch on what we've seen from jones, with only one proven shot creator and your second best player for the most part ineffective.

[thejohnnygold]

Maybe we should play a few games in the regular season before we map out the playoffs.  

 

The season will bring injuries to key players, trades that catapult teams into contention (which may include us), and surprise teams--both in how good and how bad they are.

 

Meanwhile, we have a team that, to me, could find some really good synergy fast.  I think the pecking order on this team is much clearer this season than last.  Like the term or not, our role players know their roles.  We've got 3 high caliber defenders and as long as Jones isn't in ISO he's not bad.  As long as Harden can remember he's playing in an NBA game on that end we should be solid on D.

 

I keep hearing concerns about the stress on Harden to create more now that Lin and Parsons are gone.  Is this really true?  If Harden gets tired can we not sit him, plug in Troy Daniels, and let Dwight go to work in the post surrounded by 3 point bombers like Ariza, Canaan, Beverley, Papa, etc.?  It's not pretty, but it is an effective offense.  No way teams can sag off and double team Dwight and few defenders can hold him in the post.

 

I also believe people are neglecting that just because Ariza has settled into his 3&D role does not mean he can't perform some of Parsons' role as Grade B creator off the dribble.  There is also D-Mo who can clearly get it going in the post.  It just seems like a doom and gloom view that Harden must generate all of our offense or the rest of the guys will start running around like screaming chickens.

 

 

I'd love to see some sets with Jones or D-Mo working in the mid-high post with Dwight lurking on the opposite baseline.  I think this could be very interesting as both can put the ball on the floor, can score near the rim, and make nifty passes to a charging bull named Dwight Howard if his man tries to double them.  Plus, having Dwight crashing the offensive glass can't be a bad thing--ever.

 

Like Alituro said above, the path to the finals is going to be riddled with good teams.  I mean, look at the likely 7-8 other teams who will join us in the post season and try and pick an "easy" path.

 

Does anyone think Portland, Golden State, and Dallas would be a cakewalk?  Nope...and that's about as "easy" as it's going to get.  Sure, you can argue that it's easier, than San Antonio, the Clips, and OKC, but there is no guarantee those guys go far either.  Don't forget, all three of them were taken to 7 games in their round 1 match ups last year.

[clydesmoustache]

Does anyone think Portland, Golden State, and Dallas would be a cakewalk?

Ha! Isn't that the truth! Maybe worrying is in my DNA but i never felt comfortable against Phoenix or Memphis as well.

Edited by clydesmoustache, 15 October 2014 - 08:56 AM.

[Alituro]

Other than Ariza, our starting 5 has played together long enough to know each others game. In their first season together, this is a unit that was able to compete with the class of the league as evidenced by our good record against those teams last season, (4-0 against SA for example). There is no logical reason to believe that we would fare any worse, because no team in the west got significantly better. But did we? I think so. Like Johnnygold was alluding to, our guys this season absolutely know their roles. We don't have an expensive center pouting, moping, depressing the bench and faking injuries (who also happened to be an ill-fit to our new system), nor an expensive guard trying to re-create a flash-in-the-pan stint of greatness once experienced (who also happened to be an ill-fit to our new system). Now we have a bench full of young guys, and a vet or two (one who surely can light it up particularly in the Toyota Center). But who put those young guys there? That's right, our savior, the one and only, Daryl Morey. The same guy who recruited, signed or traded for so many gems in the rough over the years. 2nd round draft picks and overlooked talent riding pine in the dregs of the league. See: Dragic, Lowry, Landry, Budinger, Patterson, etc, etc., all guys who ended up being solid contributors on NBA teams. Forget Jones and D-mo for now, but if any one or two of: Johnson, Papa, Daniels, Black, Capela, Covington and maybe even, finally, Dorsey can elevate to even near the levels as some of the others in the past, then we will definitely be a force to reckon with this season, as much or more so than last (this is NOT a stretch). If you spend the season pining for that ever elusive "3rd star", which has a fat chance of happening this year, and not continuing to enjoy the development of young recruits, then you're going to have a bad time. We will be in the mix come playoff time, will be competitive against any opponent, and nothing is guaranteed there for any team.

[thejohnnygold]

Agreed Alituro.

 

Troy Daniels is the real deal people.  He is going to look like a rookie at times--because essentially he is one.  Somehow, it has yet to be mentioned that this guy with all the question marks is shooting 53% from deep in 4 games averaging over 4 attempts per game.  He's also notching a steal and a couple of rebounds in 18 mpg.  Did you feel that?....That was Daryl Morey grinning from ear to ear.

 

 

Daniels has elite 3&D guy written all over him.  Consider that his shooting will likely only get better.  Strength will increase.  IQ will increase.  This guy, barring a major trade, is going to be knocking down threes for us for a long time.  Here is his work against Phoenix:

 

 

So, there's one solid piece off the bench.

 

I'm also still on the Canaan train.  He's definitely got some.....short comings.  Still, he can ball in this league.  He can also run our offense while our "playmakers" sit.  I'll keep saying it until people remember that not all offense must be created outside-in the way Harden, Lin, and Parsons did it.  Which brings me to......

 

Donatas Motiejunas.  Canaan is quite capable of getting him the ball in the post.  Motie is a very good passer and a very good post man.  Surround him with some three point bombers (Daniels, Canaan, Papa) and a guy like Adrien, Black, Dorsey and that squad can do some serious damage.

 

Just watch these highlights and tell me you're still worried about running offense through D-Mo (against other back-ups no less).

 

 

Wow, we're up to 3 bench guys.  Maybe the sky isn't falling....

 

Jeff Adrien.  Go wander around his stats at basketball-reference.com.  His per36 numbers are reminiscent of some guy named Omer Asik (back when he was in Chicago) and one could argue slightly better.  Since he has entered the league he has been buried on benches behind veterans and high draft picks.  If he was 3-4 inches taller he'd be close to all-star level.  Sadly, there is a chance he doesn't make the roster--I hope he does.

 

We're also completely ignoring some guy named Jason Terry.  Last he was healthy, as he purportedly is for the first time in a couple years, he was a 6th man of the year caliber guy off the bench.  He can contribute to the cause.

 

By season's end, I think this bench (barring a cupboard clearing trade) will be one of the best in the league.

[timetodienow1234567]

If we're relying on the JET, we are in massive trouble.