29 replies to this topic

[Mario Peña]

report from Royce Young at Daily Thunder: http://dailythunder....jones-fracture/

 

 

report from Sheridan hoops: http://www.sheridanh...-foot-fracture/

 

 

 

Off the top of my head obvious hurdles:

 

-This is happening in the West and with the Clippers poised to jump to the top and with the Spurs seasoned even more (if possible) and ready to attempt their final challenge, to repeat, I just don't see how the Thunder survive this.

 

-Oklahoma City will have problems with scoring and wing defense with Durant out.

 

-Scott Brooks doesn't seem to be the coach to carry this team though he has great chemistry with his players and will get much out of them I don't think he can elevate them to transcend, honestly few could.

 

-Does the talk of Durant's impending free agency get louder and how do the involved parties deal with it and though minor it doesn't move the needle in the right direction.

 

-If the Thunder sustain any more extended injuries to Westbrook, Ibaka, Jackson or Adams then Presti has a real problem on his hands since his roster construction couldn't withstand it. What team could lose an MVP type player though besides San Antonio, Los Angeles and Cleveland (probably more to do with being in the East).

[cointurtlemoose]

IF (a big if) he comes back in the allotted 6-8 weeks 100%, it's not too big of a deal, IMO. No doubt the Thunder will suffer majorly in his absence, but come April, they'll still be around.

 

And playoff seeding is less consequential in the West now. I mean, all four first round series last year were extremely competitive. OKC dropping to a 5, 6, or 7 seed would make a little difference, but not that much, IMO.

 

Like you, I'm interested to see how Brooks' coaching might change. OKC's lack of really any offensive system was mostly due to the fact that they didn't need one. Minus Durant, they will need one.

 

Also, their bench's wings might finally get playing time! They're not that good, but who knows, some experience, even in failure, could make them better in the long run.

[Dan G]

I don't think it will be a big deal unless he misses more than the 6-8 weeks, and even then it won't be a huge issue unless he misses double that time, which is unlikely.

 

I can tell you is chomping at the bit to start the season and who is ready to take just as many shots as Kobe does on a nightly basis: Russell Westbrook. His stock is now on the rise and will give a Fantasy Team a huge boost for however long Durant is out.

[timetodienow1234567]

I really look forward to perry jones finally getting some run.

[Losthief]

I really look forward to perry jones finally getting some run.

 

upvoted this cause im 100% in agreeing perry jones has a chance to fill in some big minutes.

[clydesmoustache]

I am glad he didn't play for the USA team now or all we would be hearing about is how the stress on his body was too much.

[Mason Khamvilay]

The west is so competitive now that even 50 wins won't guarantee a playoff seed, that's crazy. Mavs won 49 games last season but they will probably win more this season. The Suns won 48 games last season and will also likely win more. Holy crap, might OKC miss the playoffs?

They're saying Durant will miss 8 weeks, which is pretty much 30 games on the dot. If OKC win only half those games, OKC will have to jump straight back to their usual .720 win pace to finish with 52-53 wins, and that's assuming no rust and/or hindrance from the surgery--a questionable likelihood.

OKC no longer have a wing stopper, Thabo Sefalosha is with Atlanta now. Anthony Morrow who was thought to be the starting SG is out for a month. Perry Jones, Jeremy Lamb, and Reggie Jackson have promise but promise doesn't win games. Westbrook played 92% of his minutes with Durant, so this will pretty much be the first time he has had to carry an offense as the first option, and I'm not extremely optimistic about that. This is crazy.

[thejohnnygold]

Anything is possible.  It's possible that Kevin Durant becomes the epitome of the "Ewing Effect" and OKC soars even higher without him.  Not likely, but possible.  

 

I think Westbrook is going to impress.  I think Nick Collison still has a little left in the tank and can do good things for them.  I think Serge Ibaka will do Serge Ibaka things.  I think Steven Adams is under-rated and will work very well with Westbrook on offense and will pair well with Ibaka on defense.  Lamb could break out.  Jackson is good.  They are not devoid of talent--this isn't like LeBron's Cavs teams.  Still, anything is possible.  They could completely fall apart.  They could swing a trade....maybe Phoenix decides they need size and won't have a shot at re-signing Dragic anyways so they trade him for Perkins' expiring deal, Reggie Jackson (who OKC knows they won't re-sign) and some spare parts/draft picks move around.  (Just a hypothetical--odds are very small that trade happens, but it makes a little sense--Phoenix would be tough with Perk anchoring the middle and OKC would have a two-headed monster at guard)

 

Moving on, I am not yet sold on Dallas improving this season.  (Same goes for Phoenix as currently constructed).  Dallas swapped Calderon, Carter, Marion, and Dalembert for Felton, Parsons, Crowder, and Chandler.  Felton and Crowder are definite downgrades (I like Crowder, but Marion is still overall a better player).  Chandler is in a stage of his career where recurring injuries have set in--the bones in his legs are shot.  I will be shocked if he can stay healthy.  They are going to want to rest him entering the playoffs and likely won't be able to as they will be fighting for seeding.  On paper, Chandler is a huge upgrade, but I have serious doubts he will play more than 50 games.

 

As for Mr. Parsons, he is stepping into a role that was well-handled by Vince Carter (his per36 numbers were 18 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, 2 to with a healthy 39% 3fg on 6.8 attempts per game).

 

For comparison, Parsons' per36 numbers (which actually dip from his per game totals due to how many minutes he played) were nearly identical with 16 pts, 5 reb, 4 ast, 1 stl, and 2 to while shooting 37% 3fg on 4.5 attempts per game).

 

Parsons will be able to match that, but how much of an upgrade is that really going to be?  Media pundits talk like Dallas just signed this offensive juggernaut that is going to fill some void.  My prediction: Dallas fans will be pining for Vince Carter by Christmas.  Especially when they remember that Carter played better at 1/5th the cost and Dirk's "salary discount" just got blown.  Morey sends Cuban a case of red wine for Christmas with a simple note attached--"sour grapes for you" is all it says 

 

Again, anything can happen.  I'm just not convinced that Dallas' moves are as significant as most seem to think.  I think that, ultimately, they down-graded three spots and made a lateral move (at a huge cost) in the other.  I would not be surprised to see them finish behind New Orleans in the standings. 

 

One thing is certain--this season is going to be nuts.  Hyper-competitive is an understatement.  The West is so good that a team like Houston, with 2 top 10 players, is an afterthought when discussing potential WC champs.  The Grizzlies are almost forgotten in most discussions.  I could probably construct 3 different all-star starting line-ups and not use any player more than once and each would be perfectly valid.  The West is DEEEEEEEEP.  I can't wait to see it all play out.

[timetodienow1234567]

I disagree on Parsons. I think Parsons is better than VC. VC really changed his game up and while a solid player he's not the threat Parsons will be. VC was not a legit third option. His point came off of Ellis and Dirk making plays. With a legit third man, Dirk and Ellis should be more efficient so the overall effect on the team would be positive. I don't see anymore than 17-18/5/4 a game. But he will make an overall impact that helps. Marion's defense will be missed though.

[thejohnnygold]

I disagree on Parsons. I think Parsons is better than VC. VC really changed his game up and while a solid player he's not the threat Parsons will be. VC was not a legit third option. His point came off of Ellis and Dirk making plays. With a legit third man, Dirk and Ellis should be more efficient so the overall effect on the team would be positive. I don't see anymore than 17-18/5/4 a game. But he will make an overall impact that helps. Marion's defense will be missed though.

 

That's where we disagree.  I think Parsons' play-making is over-rated and he relied as much on Harden, Howard, and Lin as VC relied on Ellis and Dirk.  I guess I just don't see him getting much better than he was here.  He'll make incremental improvements as he gains experience over the years, but I think his shooting and athleticism have, more or less, peaked.  That flat shot will always inhibit his % from deep.  He's a fine player, for sure, but I think public perception has him up on a pedestal right now and the odds are he will get knocked off of it.

 

Who knows?  Maybe he explodes like Harden did and puts up 24, 6, and 6 a night....anything can happen.  Carlisle certainly knows how to get the most out of his players.

 

I can't be bothered to look for it, but recall the post I made a while back regarding Parsons and the inverse relationship his usage rate had on his efficiency and our win/loss record last season.  The higher it goes, the lower the other two go.  Again, maybe Carlisle fixes that, but for now I see it as a lateral move with a $12M bump in salary.  They did want to get younger so that helps, but those who are predicting Dallas to jump into the top 4 are reaching in my opinion.

 

It is likely the 4 seed will be whichever of Houston, GS, Portland, Memphis, and Dallas (which I think will not be healthy enough, but I will include them) stays healthiest throughout the season.  Shoot, I think the Pellies, if they can keep their starting 5 healthy, could sneak into the 5/6 spot.  Asik is a huge upgrade over anything they rolled out at C last season and Davis gets better every day.  Holiday, Evans, and Gordon can all contribute.  If I had to choose 5 teams for league pass this would be one of them...fortunately, I do not.

[Sir Thursday]

I think the Parsons vs. VC thing is a bit off. Actually, Parsons is replacing Marion's spot in the starting lineup. I think that's going to be tough for him - Marion did all the little things defensively and Parsons doesn't quite have the experience to step into that role. He will be a better shooter though, which I guess makes up for the shooting downgrade they've had at PG from Calderon to Nelson. VC's role is likely to be covered by a mix of Jae Crowder and Al-Farouq Aminu, I expect.

 

ST

[thejohnnygold]

I think the Parsons vs. VC thing is a bit off. Actually, Parsons is replacing Marion's spot in the starting lineup. I think that's going to be tough for him - Marion did all the little things defensively and Parsons doesn't quite have the experience to step into that role. He will be a better shooter though, which I guess makes up for the shooting downgrade they've had at PG from Calderon to Nelson. VC's role is likely to be covered by a mix of Jae Crowder and Al-Farouq Aminu, I expect.

 

ST

 

I completely forgot about Nelson and Aminu 

 

I also had VC confused with Marion (my bad  ) in the starting line-up.  I thought VC started and Marion subbed in.

 

After reconsidering with this in mind.....Aminu will do a decent Marion impression as a reserve.  Parsons will do a decent VC impression as a starter....and it should still be a wash.

 

Nelson doesn't move the needle for me any more, or less, than Felton so that too is a wash.  Villanueva?  Still not impressed.

 

For me, this Dallas season comes down to Tyson Chandler's health.  Like most teams, they have almost nothing of quality behind him--which is bad news.  Brandan Wright, Greg Smith, and Bernard James.  Uh-oh.

 

They've got enough firepower to run-n-gun with anyone, but to win games they need a healthy Chandler.  I could very well be dead wrong on this, but I'm not drinking the Dallas Kool-Aid.

[Sir Thursday]

I think I agree with you on Chandler, but I'm much more bullish about them overall. Let me offer an alternative take on why I think the Mavericks are going to be good this year (as much as it pains me to say it):

 

- Of all the teams in the league, I think they are probably the most capable of withstanding the ridiculous amount of roster churn they had in the off-season. The setup with Dirk and Carlisle is stable and enduring and should mean that there's good cultural continuity even with all of the veterans (Marion, Carter, Calderon, Dalembert) moving on.

- The core of their success last year was the potency of the Ellis/Nowitzki pick-and-roll. That's not going anywhere. When you've got such a strong fundamental mechanic to build your offence around, you're always going to be decent. And those guys understand each other and know how to get the most out of it.

- I don't buy that Parsons is due for a regression. From what I can tell, he is a natural chameleon - he is able to adapt to his surroundings and become the thing his team needs. That's how he was able to force his way onto the team in the first place from being a second round pick they weren't even sure was going to play (IIRC he missed quite a bit of training camp in his rookie year due to contract negotiations), and that's how he was able to make his way through the ranks to become the kind of player that earns a $48M payday. He's been able to fit before and he'll be able to do it again in Dallas, where his role is not expanding that much more over what it was with the Rockets. He's still going to be catching off the drive-and-kick and providing secondary penetration and/or spot-shooting, and filling the channels on the break. They're probably going to need him to take on more defensive responsibilities, but I think Carlisle will be able to get him to do that. He's a coachable guy. Maybe he's not going to put up superstar numbers, but he'll be dynamic and carry some of the scoring burden and generally do what they need him to do.

- Chandler is an enormous defensive upgrade over Dalembert. He had a dodgy year last year (which I chalk up to the dysfunction that's been swirling around the Knicks for a while now) but he's a brilliant pick-and-roll partner and he will be the defensive anchor that Dalembert can't always be. Unlike Sammy he's got great defensive positioning and knows when to go for the block and when to just be big. They don't have Marion any more to fill in the holes on the perimeter, but they've now got a genuine presence inside to funnel to and that's going to help the wings immeasurably. They need him

- I like the Nelson signing a lot. He's solid, he can shoot threes pretty well (OK, maybe not as well as Calderon, but still at a decent rate), he'll give decent defensive effort and he knows how to control the flow of the game. They aren't taking a step back in this position despite the roster turnover.

- I disagree with your analysis of their depth - IMO their bench is pretty decent. Harris, Crowder, Aminu, Wright, Smith may not be standouts, but Carlisle doesn't put them in as a platoon - he's much more savvy with the rotation. They can hold down the fort if you mix them in with the starters and all have a tangible NBA-level skill you can put them in the game for (except for maybe Harris). Crowder is the shooter, Aminu the defender/wing rebounder, Wright the shot-blocker, Smith the garbage man. Carlisle knows their strengths and will use them accordingly. Crowder in particular is going to have a good year, I expect. He's finally going to get the minutes he needs to show the world what he's capable of.

 

So, injury caveats aside, I see them doing well this year. It's going to be interesting to see who comes out with the better record between them and Houston.

 

ST

[thejohnnygold]

I think I agree with you on Chandler, but I'm much more bullish about them overall. Let me offer an alternative take on why I think the Mavericks are going to be good this year (as much as it pains me to say it):

 

- Of all the teams in the league, I think they are probably the most capable of withstanding the ridiculous amount of roster churn they had in the off-season. The setup with Dirk and Carlisle is stable and enduring and should mean that there's good cultural continuity even with all of the veterans (Marion, Carter, Calderon, Dalembert) moving on.

- The core of their success last year was the potency of the Ellis/Nowitzki pick-and-roll. That's not going anywhere. When you've got such a strong fundamental mechanic to build your offence around, you're always going to be decent. And those guys understand each other and know how to get the most out of it.

- I don't buy that Parsons is due for a regression. From what I can tell, he is a natural chameleon - he is able to adapt to his surroundings and become the thing his team needs. That's how he was able to force his way onto the team in the first place from being a second round pick they weren't even sure was going to play (IIRC he missed quite a bit of training camp in his rookie year due to contract negotiations), and that's how he was able to make his way through the ranks to become the kind of player that earns a $48M payday. He's been able to fit before and he'll be able to do it again in Dallas, where his role is not expanding that much more over what it was with the Rockets. He's still going to be catching off the drive-and-kick and providing secondary penetration and/or spot-shooting, and filling the channels on the break. They're probably going to need him to take on more defensive responsibilities, but I think Carlisle will be able to get him to do that. He's a coachable guy. Maybe he's not going to put up superstar numbers, but he'll be dynamic and carry some of the scoring burden and generally do what they need him to do.

- Chandler is an enormous defensive upgrade over Dalembert. He had a dodgy year last year (which I chalk up to the dysfunction that's been swirling around the Knicks for a while now) but he's a brilliant pick-and-roll partner and he will be the defensive anchor that Dalembert can't always be. Unlike Sammy he's got great defensive positioning and knows when to go for the block and when to just be big. They don't have Marion any more to fill in the holes on the perimeter, but they've now got a genuine presence inside to funnel to and that's going to help the wings immeasurably. They need him

- I like the Nelson signing a lot. He's solid, he can shoot threes pretty well (OK, maybe not as well as Calderon, but still at a decent rate), he'll give decent defensive effort and he knows how to control the flow of the game. They aren't taking a step back in this position despite the roster turnover.

- I disagree with your analysis of their depth - IMO their bench is pretty decent. Harris, Crowder, Aminu, Wright, Smith may not be standouts, but Carlisle doesn't put them in as a platoon - he's much more savvy with the rotation. They can hold down the fort if you mix them in with the starters and all have a tangible NBA-level skill you can put them in the game for (except for maybe Harris). Crowder is the shooter, Aminu the defender/wing rebounder, Wright the shot-blocker, Smith the garbage man. Carlisle knows their strengths and will use them accordingly. Crowder in particular is going to have a good year, I expect. He's finally going to get the minutes he needs to show the world what he's capable of.

 

So, injury caveats aside, I see them doing well this year. It's going to be interesting to see who comes out with the better record between them and Houston.

 

ST

 

Nice post.  I agree with most of this.  I think my main point, which I am sure I muddled, was to argue against the general consensus of the media pundits that the Mavs have greatly improved.  Your points that they have not regressed are well-stated and I concede that may not be the case (although, having had Tyson Chandler on my fantasy team last season I am still bitter and jaded about his health and am not convinced he is the same guy as his reputation--we'll see).  I think they are roughly the same as last season and, if Tyson Chandler does falter, will be in big trouble.  I will definitely be keeping an eye on them as the season progresses.

 

Regarding Parsons--I agree with you.  He will do Chandler Parsons things.  I still hold that it is not a significant upgrade over the VC/Marion combo from last season.  So glad to have real NBA basketball to talk about again 

 

I also can't pass up the opportunity to point out the complete hypocrisy of Mark Cuban who somehow got away with being the pot who caled the kettle black without anyone seeming to notice.  Completely overhauls his roster while talking about loyalty, chemistry, and continuity.  Whatever, "Cubes" 

[Drew in Abilene]

-If the Thunder sustain any more extended injuries to Westbrook, Ibaka, Jackson or Adams then Presti has a real problem on his hands since his roster construction couldn't withstand it. What team could lose an MVP type player though besides San Antonio, Los Angeles and Cleveland (probably more to do with being in the East).

 

And suddenly, OKC is in a nightmare scenario. Down Durant and Westbrook, it's within the realm of possibility that they could miss the playoffs completely. 

 

If OKC is 5-15 after 20 games -- and that or worse is in play -- have to go 44-18 rest of way to hit 49 wins it took for No. 8 last season. - Zach Lowe

[timetodienow1234567]

This might be a blessing in disguise. It will make Ibaka their number one and hopefully he will grow from that. Also they will be able to see what they have in Adams and Perry jones. They might come out stronger, maybe not this year but next year. Also, could they grab a late lottery pick for Reggie if they showcase him? What about trading Durant for Beal/Gortat? If they believe that he will leave anyways, why not? That gives them a legit SG and C. They would have to find a SF, but they could offer Kawhi the max(SA might not match).

There are so many possibilities and if this is a lost season I think they come out okay. Sam Presti is pretty good(except when it comes to his coach's in-game adjustments. But how can you fire him when their three best players have improved so much(Westbrook, Ibaka, and Durant)?

[Sir Thursday]

I don't see it taking 49 wins to get into the playoffs this season. Last season was a perfect storm of 8 really good teams and a putrid Eastern conference, and the historically high bar for playoff entry reflects that. This year the East isn't quite as bad and the Pelicans and the Nuggets are better, which means there are going to be fewer wins to share around. On the plus side for OKC, that means they don't need as many wins to get to level needed for playoff entry, but on the downside wins aren't going to be quite as easy to come by this year. I reckon the bar is going to be more like 46-47 wins this time around.

 

ST

[thejohnnygold]

This might be a blessing in disguise. It will make Ibaka their number one and hopefully he will grow from that. Also they will be able to see what they have in Adams and Perry jones. They might come out stronger, maybe not this year but next year. Also, could they grab a late lottery pick for Reggie if they showcase him? What about trading Durant for Beal/Gortat? If they believe that he will leave anyways, why not? That gives them a legit SG and C. They would have to find a SF, but they could offer Kawhi the max(SA might not match).

There are so many possibilities and if this is a lost season I think they come out okay. Sam Presti is pretty good(except when it comes to his coach's in-game adjustments. But how can you fire him when their three best players have improved so much(Westbrook, Ibaka, and Durant)?

 

I think that if Presti traded Durant for anyone not named Lebron James or Anthony Davis he would be dragged into the street and beaten by the fans--and even then they still might.  No, it would have to be a Herschel Walker type deal to even get Presti to pick up the phone.

[timetodienow1234567]

Beal is pretty good and while he's not Durant, when coupled with Gortat and 3 1sts, that's a pretty good haul.

Of course, they probably won't do that, choosing instead to go for 2 shots at the title rather than do that, but there's no guarantee Westbrook is here to stay either so it's extremely unlikely to happen.

[thejohnnygold]

Beal is pretty good and while he's not Durant, when coupled with Gortat and 3 1sts, that's a pretty good haul.

Of course, they probably won't do that, choosing instead to go for 2 shots at the title rather than do that, but there's no guarantee Westbrook is here to stay either so it's extremely unlikely to happen.

 

Would you trade Harden for that haul?

 

Unless Durant flat out tells Presti he is leaving, which I doubt he will do, Presti has to hold out and try to re-sign him.