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@  Mario Peña : (10 October 2015 - 01:12 PM) If your part if the Red94 Fantasy Basketball League check the thread to vote for the date and time for the draft event. Thanks y'all!
@  jorgeaam : (07 October 2015 - 08:47 PM) Guys we need 1 more owner for the Red94 fantasy league, if interested please comment on the post in the fantasy basketball thread
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 06:50 PM) Kobe ranked one spot higher than Ariza? Is this based on legacy or...??
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 04:13 PM) It was hard to keep up with both the Astros and Rockets at the same time. Should be interesting on Thursday with the Texans and Astros on simultaneously.
@  Mario Peña : (07 October 2015 - 04:09 PM) It was fun to have the Rockets on last night! Right now I'm watching the Celtics versus Milan and Alessandro Gentile is impressive.
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Well, thinking twice about it, I'd rather have him score less and have the team as a whole do better. Lawson should take a lot of his load off
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Loving that, hope he hits 30 PPG this year
@  thejohnnygold : (06 October 2015 - 06:15 PM) Someone is feeling confident :) : LINK
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 05:54 PM) 10 Teams done, will need 2 more
@  Mario Peña : (06 October 2015 - 02:35 PM) Alright guys, if anyone is interested in joining the Red94 fantasy basketball league we could use one more player to get us to 10 teams (or three to get us to 12 teams). Just check the thread in the Fantasy Basketball forum. Thanks!
@  thejohnnygold : (05 October 2015 - 06:23 PM) I use leaguepass here in Austin with no problems...
@  skip 2 my lou : (05 October 2015 - 03:14 PM) Hey fellas, I'm a rocket fan but I live in the heart of Dallas. Does anybody know if I buy NBA Leaguepass if it's too close to be subject to blackouts?
@  Losthief : (02 October 2015 - 02:24 AM) tks jg
@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.

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Should the Houston Rockets pursue Eric Bledsoe? Part 3 - Offense


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#1 Red94

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    Posted 10 September 2014 - 12:42 PM

    New post: Should the Houston Rockets pursue Eric Bledsoe? Part 3 - Offense
    By: rahat huq

    You can read Part 2 of this series here.

    Initially, a reader has taken great exception to the fact this discussion (continued on this week's podcast) has not made mention of Bledsoe's troubling injury history.  I'll dissect that matter in the next installment.

    In Part 2, I compared Eric Bledsoe's defensive stats with those of Pat Beverley's, concluding the two players were comparable on that end of the floor.  Offense is trickier.  In that assessment, Beverley was a logical starting point because a) he's the incumbent, but b) he's elite.  With whom do I compare Bledsoe on offense?  I could do Rondo, under the discussion of trade target preference, but is Rondo the true opportunity cost?  Again, I think the best bet here again is Beverley.  If we understand the degree of disparity between Bledsoe and Beverley on offense, already having concluded similar value defensively, we can gauge Bledsoe's reasonable market worth.  (I'm fully aware I could just compare him to both Rondo and Beverley, but I don't have that kind of time).

    Here are the numbers:

    Bledsoe shoots 47.7% from the field overall, while Beverley shoots just 41.1%.  From three, the two guys are comparable with Bledsoe shooting 36.2% and Beverley shooting 36.4%.  (By the way, this figure needs to go up to 39% for Beverley for the Rockets to comfortably contend with him in the lineup).

    In isolation, Bledsoe scored on 41.6% of his tries, while Beverley scored on just 34.5% of his.  It's nice that Bledsoe can score in isolation, but it also isn't problematic that Beverley really can't.

    As the pick&roll ball handler, Bledsoe scored on 40.7% of his attempts, while Beverley scored on 47.1% of his.  I found that pretty surprising.  Bledsoe had 215 attempts while Beverley had just 77.

    On spot-ups, Bledsoe scored on 46% of his attempts, whereas Beverley scored on 35.5% of his.  Bledsoe ranked 68th in the entire league here.  But again, Bledsoe spotted up just 87 times whereas Beverley spotted 234 times.

    Coming off the screen, Bledsoe scored on 41.7% of his attempts, while Beverley scored on 27.3% of his.  Bledsoe had 12 attempts; Beverley had 11.

    Off a hand-off, Bledsoe scored on 41.4% of his attempts, while Beverley scored on 43.8%.  26 to 16, Bledsoe-Beverley in total number.

    On cuts, Bledsoe scored on 64.3% of his attempts, whereas Beverley scored on 38.5%.  14-13 in attempts.  I would have thought that figure would be much larger.

    On offensive rebounds, Bledsoe scored on 56.3% of his attempts, whereas Beverley scored on 61.5% of his.  The number of attempts is 26-16 in favor of Beverley.  Beverley, in fact, ranked 9th in the entire league in efficiency here.

    In transition, Bledsoe scored on 54% of his attempts, while Beverley scored on 49.5% of his.  187 to 105 in favor of Bledsoe here, in total number of attempts.

    And last of all, for "all other plays", whatever that means, Bledsoe scored on 37.5% of his 48 attempts, while Beverley scored on 38% of his 50 attempts.

    The above data was pulled from Synergy Sports.  I wanted to check out a few other things, so I turned to BasketballReference next

    Bledsoe shot 75% last year on 2's, and 34% on 2's from between 0-3 feet.

    By comparison, Beverley shot just 47% on 2's and just 20% on 2's between 0-3 feet.  I had not realized how low this figure was and am actually finding this highly disturbing.

    I'm not looking at assists at all because Bledsoe had a USG% of 25; Bledsoe also, obviously, gets to the line more often.

    A point of relevance: this is what makes the Rockets great at what they do.  It's not about having data or having access to data.  It's about knowing how to properly apply it and draw the right conclusions.  Every person/organization will have a different opinion on which set of figures above holds the greatest relevance.  Whereas I may gloss over the 2% difference in hand-offs, someone else might see that as indicative of something far greater.  And this is how multi-million dollar corporate decisions are made.  At the margins.

    Bledsoe's clearly the superior player offensively, but we already knew that.  Is he $11-$12million better?  Absolutely not.  But that conclusion is skewered when remembering that a) Beverley will hit the market next summer and b) the Rockets have to make an upgrade somewhere, at some point.

    Ultimately, I don't even know what to think.  As I've been saying all along, I just wish there was a power forward available out there, because that would make the perfect sense.  If Beverley could just improve his three point shooting slightly, and the Rockets could pick up a veteran power forward upgrade, I think that route would represent the greatest gain.  At the moment, I'm not entirely blown away by Bledsoe.  Having said that, if there are no other alternate avenues for improvement, I would be satisfied with the move.


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    #2 thejohnnygold

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    Posted 10 September 2014 - 04:39 PM

     

    Bledsoe shot 75% last year on 2's, and 34% on 2's from between 0-3 feet.

    By comparison, Beverley shot just 47% on 2's and just 20% on 2's between 0-3 feet.  I had not realized how low this figure was and am actually finding this highly disturbing.

     

    I would just like to make a small correction as I think you may have mis-read the chart from basketball-reference (it's easy to do--I have done the same)

     

    Bledsoe took 75% of his total fg's from 2--not shot 75% on 2's (that would be insanely good) and took 34% of his shots between 0-3 ft. making 67% of those.  (a very solid number)  Bledsoe's shot chart

     

    Beverley took 47% of his total fg's from 2 and took 20% of his shots from 0-3 ft. making 57% of those.  Beverley's shot chart

     

    Bledsoe drove to the rim much more than Beverley, but that is to be expected given the difference in the roles and usg% for each.

     

    The thing that seems to have been glossed over regarding their overall percentages is the huge disparity between the number of three pointers Beverley took versus the number Bledsoe took.

     

    Bev took 53% of his shots from deep.  That means his 36% 3fg mark has a profound affect on his overall fg%.  He shot 47% overall from 2, but that number gets dropped nearly 6 percentage points due to the volume of 3's taken.  His eFG% of .509 paints a better picture of his offensive efficiency.

     

    Bledsoe took only 25% of his shots from deep.  Combine that with his sterling fg% at the rim (which accounted for nearly 1/3 of his shots) and you will get a much higher overall fg% (48% overall); however, when you take into account the three point shooting, his eFG% is only slightly better than Bev's at .522 (a +.013 difference).

     

    Beverley also held a superior edge in the 3-10 ft. range.  Bev took 20% of his shots from 3-10 and made 46% of those.  That's a solid number.  Bledsoe, by comparison, took 14% from there while making 38% of those tries.  I think this brings some balance to the disparity they have on shots at the rim.

     

    Truly, the question becomes this: do we want a player who gets to the rim often and finishes well in doing so, but turns the ball over a bit more (about 3x as much) (Bledsoe), or do we want a guy who is content to spot up from 3 and takes care of the ball?  (I do agree that we would benfit greatly from a slight up-tick on his 3fg%, but given everything else I can live with the 36%).

     

    Again, this "basketball decision" winds up becoming a "money decision".  Given the max contract with the question of that pesky knee plus the narrow disparity between him and Beverley there just doesn't seem to be any kind of rationale for trading for Bledsoe that I can see.  Like Rahat said, it is likely somebody on Morey's staff is delving into the 12th dimension of layers of data to find that rationale one way or the other.  

     

    By keeping Patrick, we get another season to see how he has improved (which I think he will) and the inside track on re-signing him or sign+trading him if we see fit at season's end (a bridge we can cross at that time).

     

    Whether it is Bledsoe, Rondo, or Beverley I think we should wait until after this season to make a move--each player has question marks and I don't think we are so desperate that we need to gamble without kicking the tires a little more.

     

    Besides, Ryan Anderson could be that PF Rahat wants....I am convinced he gets moved sooner than later.  He is Kevin Love Lite--which isn't bad at all.


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    #3 Losthief

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    Posted 10 September 2014 - 11:51 PM

    to your pf comment, thoughts on the hawks ferry possibly getting fired/forced out by new ownership group making horford or millsap available to bidders? And could we get either.* Millsap is on the last year of his 2 year deal, making it possible they move him for something instead of letting him walk if the hawks organization continues to burn down around itself.

     

    *before im called crazy horford was shopped around last trade deadline, but the price was really high (it was in a zach lowe article somewhere in the summer)


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    LoSTHieF

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    Posted 11 September 2014 - 12:43 AM

    @Losthief

    forget about Milsap................now Horford on the other hand :wub:


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    you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own B)


    #5 Losthief

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    Posted 11 September 2014 - 01:04 AM

    @Losthief

    forget about Milsap................now Horford on the other hand :wub:

    yeah...i really like horford at the pf spot alot too, but not sure we'd have enough to get in the discussion.


    Edited by Losthief, 11 September 2014 - 01:04 AM.

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    LoSTHieF

    I'd Rather Be Lucky Than Skilled


    #6 rockets best fan

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      glad you're on board, but I been on this boat since it left

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    Posted 11 September 2014 - 01:29 AM

    @Losthief

    I think we can if the right situation panned out. while their will be many suitors and possibly a couple with better offer than us......never say never


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    you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own B)


    #7 Alituro

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      Posted 11 September 2014 - 12:15 PM

      I'm still not high on Bledsoe. I think any positive disparity in his stats versus Bev are a product of his usage and the system. He is turnover and injury prone and costs too much. He is not the guy worth going all-in for, mostly because he is not filing a desperate need. If our starter was AB, he who must not be named, or Alston, then it would be a different situation.

       

      I'm with you guys on pursuit of a new PF taking #1 priority, and worth holding out for.


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