74 replies to this topic

[SadLakerFan]

The pick has value. There have been some pretty good players picked between 4 and 19 over the years. Think of all the great point guards!

Edited by SadLakerFan, 17 July 2014 - 07:28 AM.

[Doug]

Kdo, Howard shoots better than 50% from the free throw line. He shot almost 60% last year. That means the expected value of a possession when you foul Howard is 1.2 points, which would make us the best offense in the league. (Last year the Clippers led the league in points per possession at 1.09.)

Moreover, determining expected value for the other team is not as simple as plugging in average shooting percentages. Not every possession ends with a shot because of turnovers. Between 12 and 15 percent of NBA possessions result in a turnover for a team. Additionally, because the possession for the other team will follow a free throw, they’ll have to play offense against the other teams set defense. That’s huge.

All of that is why it almost never makes strategic sense to hack a player. Depending on the teams, the free throw shooter would have to hit an incredibly low free throw percentage to make it work -- less than 50%. Of course, that’s not to say that using the strategy will never work. But lots of dumb, counter-productive strategies work in a particular game.

[Doug]

Sorry -- I had looked at Howard's field goal percentage, not free throw percentage. He shot 55% last year (not 60%), which would translate into 1.1 points per possession. That would still make us the most efficient offense in the league.

[slick shoes]

I half agree. While I agree that sub-par free throwers aren't the cause of our problems, having more sub-par free throwers will make things worse after the 2:00 mark.

Probablility from some of our statistics suggests that it's mostly even money when you consider the following:

 

- 50% foul shooter means that every foul is an expected 1 point, but the other team gets possesion

- It's even money if they shoot 33% at the three or 50% for a FG
- League average is 36% 3P% and 45.4% FG% for the 2013-2014 season.
- Assuming the team can initiate a field goal play or 3P play 50/50 of the time, the expected value is [(45.5% * 2) + (36% * 3)] / 2 = 0.994
- So Dwight Howard shooting 50% gets us 1 point for every foul shot, results in the league averaging an expected scoring of 0.994 points in reverse

 

So essentially, "hack-a-Howard" is our achilles heel if:
- The other team shoots greater than 33% at the three or

- The other team shoots greater than 50% FG

 

If the opposing team is losing, it's an amazing tactic. The reward is worth the risk.

 

If the opposing team is relatively even in the score, it's still a favorable tactic ESPECIALLY if Houston's offensive rating is greater. "Hack-a-Howard" effectly nullifies our offensive plays.

 

It's ESPECIALLY effective considering our abysmal defense.

 

So yeah, "hack-a-Howard" exposes our weaknesses, and is arguably more effective against our team. Why do you think "hack-a-whoever" doesn't occur as often for other teams even if they have plays that shoot equal or worse than Howard at the free throw?

 

Please note, this is not a criticism on Howard, this is a criticism on sub-par free throwers on THIS Houston team, as it exposes so much of our weaknesses.

So having multiple sub-par free throwers after the 2:00 mark allows for greater chances of "hacking", especially when you have to have it in the hands of Rondo. Before, when we are at the 2:00 mark, Howard's problem is a non-issue if you don't pass it to him anymore, but with Rondo, since you facilitate plays through him, hacking effectively can continue after the 2:00 minute mark.

 

Solid post. One note to your last point regarding hacking Rondo after the 2:00 mark. The opposing team can hack RR all they want after the two minute mark as long as we have one legitimate FT shooter on the floor. Hacking RR doesn't mean he will be taking the FT. Anyone on the floor can shoot and then we retain the ball.

[slick shoes]

@rocketrick

I agree the pick is valuable and I agree we have a few assets we can move in trade, however I don't think we have enough for Love. other teams have better offer on the table. as for Rondo if we can't get some assurances he wants to hang around I doubt Morey will spend the pick on him

 

I don't see any reason to be discussing K Love any more. He doesn't want to play here so even IF we could conjure the assets to pry him away from Minny, it would only be a rental. Let him go to Cleveland. At least they're not in the west.

[thejohnnygold]

@RocketRick--you are obviously correct, sir.  My mistake.

 

@Doug--good points.

 

@Slick shoes--are you sure anyone can take the free throws?  I know possession is returned, but I can't find anything about picking the shooter of our choice.  Official Rule Book

 

Regarding the pursuit of Love/Rondo, I agree with slick shoes.  Both teams are determined to see this through to the bitter end.  They want king's ransoms (which is fine), but I don't think Morey will pay one.  If there was still 3 years on their contracts--maybe so.  I think we will wait until the dust settles on this one, or until the cost goes down--if it does at all.

 

I could see Jordan trying to swing a deal that nets him Rondo.  A Rondo/Stephenson backcourt would be ferocious.  Not sure he's got enough to swing a deal, but he might try.  Giving away all your firsts wouldn't be a terrible move as that team would most likely be finding its way to the ECF for the next few years and the picks would be very low ones.

[rockets best fan]

@JG/slick shoes

a team can only choose the FT shooter if the opposing team intentionally fouls a player without the ball.

[thejohnnygold]

@JG/slick shoes

a team can only choose the FT shooter if the opposing team intentionally fouls a player without the ball.

 

Thanks for confirming.  I think that if Rondo joins us it will be all right.  I have no doubt we will lose a game or two or even three to missed free throws and that some people will use that as evidence against having them....which would mean ignoring the other 58+ wins we got with them.

[rocketrick]

I don't mean to speak on KDO's behalf, but I think the point he was trying to get across is that Rondo, as the PG, would have the ball in his hands more often than say a D12 in the final 2 minutes, making it easier for the opponent to employ "hack a Rondo" without it actually being an intentional foul, if any of that makes sense.

In certain situations, it might be difficult for the Rockets to have both Rondo and D12 on the floor simultaneously in the final 2 minutes.

But again, Harden does have the special ability of isolation plays.............which would also keep the ball out of the hands of D12 and Rondo and allow them to stay on the floor, etc.

Personally, I think a lot of this stuff is hocus-pocus. Just put your best 5 on the court and let them duke it out.

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 03:53 PM.

[Doug]

Rondo has shoots free throws at a rate of 63% and 65% over the last two years, which is at his career percentage of 62%. By fouling Rondo, the expected points per possession is 1.24 (even assuming he hits free throws only at his career percentage, rather than what he has done over the past two years). That means, if we got Rondo, and teams were fouling him, we’d score points at an insanely high rate per possession. It would essentially be like we were the best offense in the league and we would then get to play set defense every time down the floor.

The fallacy people are making is to assume that because someone hits free throws at a poor rate relative to others, trips to the free throw line for that player are a bad percentage play. That line of reasoning ignores how incredibly efficient taking free throws are. That’s one of the reasons Harden is such an excellent player.

[slick shoes]

Thanks for confirming.  I think that if Rondo joins us it will be all right.  I have no doubt we will lose a game or two or even three to missed free throws and that some people will use that as evidence against having them....which would mean ignoring the other 58+ wins we got with them.

 

I have a pretty good feeling that in that situation, we give the ball to Harden KNOWING that they are going to intentionally foul.

 

EDIT: Per your link JG:

"Away-From-The-Play Foul:
Once the game clock reaches 2:00 in the fourth period or 2:00 of overtime periods, any defensive foul prior to the ball being released during a throw-in shall be penalized with one free throw by any player in the game and retaining the ball at the same spot. Also during this time, the same penalty would apply if a defender takes a foul against an offensive player who is not part of the action. This is to prevent teams from fouling players who are not the best free throw shooters as a strategy to gain an advantage in the critical part of a game"

 

Which brings me back to us inbouding (or attempting to) to Harden/a high % FT shooter.

Edited by slick shoes, 17 July 2014 - 04:57 PM.

[kdo]

I really enjoy the discussion on stats and probabilities, I'm glad the people on this forum are math literate.

In any case, the only point I was trying to make is that "hack-a-whoever" is exploited because our offence to defense differential is high...in other words our defense sucks.

 

If our defense improves beyond the threshold that it offsets the hacking exploitation, it then really becomes a moot point whether someone is good or terrible at free throws.

 

"Hack-a-whoever" is effective against Houston because coaches see it as nullifying our strong offense, but at the same time exploiting a weak defense.

Improve our defense, and any team that continues to attempt the silly hacking will inevitably pay.

Edited by kdo, 17 July 2014 - 04:56 PM.

[rockets best fan]

one thing that some posters are overlooking is Rondo already has a ring. he knows how to handle himself at crunch time. YES he can absolutely be part of a championship team..............any questions?

[slick shoes]

one thing that some posters are overlooking is Rondo already has a ring. he knows how to handle himself at crunch time. YES he can absolutely be part of a championship team..............any questions?

 

GET BUCKETS!!!!

[thejohnnygold]

I don't mean to speak on KDO's behalf, but I think the point he was trying to get across is that Rondo, as the PG, would have the ball in his hands more often than say a D12 in the final 2 minutes, making it easier for the opponent to employ "hack a Rondo" without it actually being an intentional foul, if any of that makes sense.

In certain situations, it might be difficult for the Rockets to have both Rondo and D12 on the floor simultaneously in the final 2 minutes.

But again, Harden does have the special ability of isolation plays.............which would also keep the ball out of the hands of D12 and Rondo and allow them to stay on the floor, etc.

Personally, I think a lot of this stuff is hocus-pocus. Just put your best 5 on the court and let them duke it out.

 

I get that....it seems I continue to suffer from the same problem that plagued me in math growing up--I don't show all my work.  I don't write down the steps I think are obvious.

 

I am operating under the assumption that Rondo does not have to hold the ball or direct the offense during this time.  I know people think he is completely incompetent shooting, but he hits 40% of his mid-range overall and is +50% from certain spots.  In 2012-3 he was a +50% shooter from inside the arc excluding baseline jumpers.  The point is, he can play off the ball as a spot up shooter.  Teams will test him by helping off of him.  That is fine.  I'm sure Houston can figure out ways to burn people who do this.

 

I am also presuming that our defense is going to be better.  I get that people want to bash our defense.  That was last season--it's over.  Let it go.  The coaches, players, and front office all saw it.  They get paid tons of money to observe and adapt to this stuff--not bury their heads in the sand.  Bev, Ariza, and Howard is 3 out of 5 defensively gifted players.  Jones/D-Mo have the ability and just need to get over the mental mistakes.  Harden will do better.  It's going to happen.  I think it is safe to assume and operate under this premise moving forward.

 

I also agree with your last statement, RR.  The stats are what they are....but each game is unique.