74 replies to this topic

[slick shoes]

 

He is actually a great fit for us. Veteran leadership, pass first guard which will mesh well with Howard and Harden's demand for touches, a true floor general which we definitely lack. Understand that shooting is not something that the Rockets lack. The rumor is that any offer extended to Bledsoe will be matched by PHX which is why we either haven't chased him or every attempt has been immediately shot down.

I'd also venture to say that at this point (even with the addition of Bledsoe or Rondo) we will be ousted in the first round unless defense becomes a priority for this team.

 

 

Are you agreeing with me or just having trouble working the forum?

[houcmg38]

That makes since, I understand we need to improve our defense to go deep. Considering how tight playoff games are I (personally) don't like the idea of adding another sub 70% FT shooter. Portland series at the line was hard to watch...

[thejohnnygold]

Am I the only one who understands that it doesn't matter how many sub-par free throw shooters we have.  It only takes one...after that the others are redundant and pointless.  They will always foul Dwight.  Rondo can be on the court with him without causing us any problems.

 

Further, assuming our defense is actually worth a flip (which it should be vastly improved in this scenario for multiple reasons) shooting 50% will be fine as we will be getting stops.

 

My third point would be that, with Rondo, we would be superior and in fewer tight games.

 

Fourth, I understand that none of this will change anyone's opinion.

[timetodienow1234567]

JG with the rule change it DOES matter. Off the ball fouls count differently than fouls when you have the ball with under 2 minutes left.

[timetodienow1234567]

Of course saying that, Rondos positives outweigh his negatives.

[thejohnnygold]

Like I didn't watch us play last season....I am aware of the rules  .  Here they are: LINK

 

I fail to see how my point is not valid.  After 2:00, you shoot your fouls and receive possession for off-ball fouls.  Before that, as long as you are shooting 50% and can get some stops you are fine.  There is no foolproof method and teams with great--GREAT--foul shooters have lost leads late...including guys like Ray Allen.

 

So what do you want to do then?  You cannot cover for every single contingency.  Sometimes, things don't go as planned or by the percentages.  The world does not function on the same rules as video games--there is no vacuum and chaos reigns supreme.

 

I will repeat myself--hopefully more clearly--if a team decides to intentionally foul us prior to the 2:00 mark they are, and always will, foul Dwight Howard.  We could put 4 other bad free throw shooters out there....and they would foul Dwight Howard.  So, when I say it doesn't make one lick of difference if Rondo is out there or not--that is why.  They are going to foul Howard.  Rondo's shooting ability is so irrelevant that I can't believe we're still discussing it.  So what if they do foul Rondo?  What's the difference between him and Dwight?  This makes no sense to care one iota about.

 

Yet, I will add one more thing to think about.  If you were an opposing coach, down by 8-10 with 4-5 minutes left and wanted to slow the game down and try to catch up who would you foul on our team?  Conversely, if you were our coach, and knew the opposing team was going to try this, would you not want to field the best defensive line-up you could since offensively it isn't going to matter?

 

Am I missing something here?

 

If the concern is we are behind then we can put in an offensive unit--for instance we could sub out Rondo and put in Daniels.  I just can't see the worry here.  Rondo shot about 63%...that's nearly 2/3...it's not the end of the world.

[houcmg38]

Am I the only one who understands that it doesn't matter how many sub-par free throw shooters we have. It only takes one...after that the others are redundant and pointless. They will always foul Dwight. Rondo can be on the court with him without causing us any problems.

Further, assuming our defense is actually worth a flip (which it should be vastly improved in this scenario for multiple reasons) shooting 50% will be fine as we will be getting stops.

My third point would be that, with Rondo, we would be superior and in fewer tight games.

Fourth, I understand that none of this will change anyone's opinion.

[rocketrick]

per bleacher- it will be tough to get rondo.
http://bleacherrepor...evin-love-trade

I think a number of people may be underestimating what Morey and the Rockets have in ways of assets in a trade for Rondo or Kevin Love or Milsap:

(1) $8.3 million traded player exception (from Lin trade to Lakers)

(2) 2015 lottery pick guaranteed to be in in play for picks 4-19.

(3) Clint Capela on Draft Night was reported by Woj to draw interest from several teams in potential trades that night.

(4) Donatas Motiejunas

(5) Would Boston be intrigued by adding Dennis Johnson's nephew, Nick Johnson? Other teams might be interested in a prospect like Canaan or Troy Daniels.

(6) European players Rockets have player rights to: Sergio Luoll, Gentile, Papanikolaou

Looks like a pretty deep shopping list to offer teams like Boston, Atlanta and Minnesota as the Trade Deadline nears in February and those teams start worrying much more about simply losing a key free agent in Unrestricted Free Agency Summer 2015.

What do you think? Do the Rockets have enough assets to offer for our last big move? Who else and/or what other assets would you add to the list above?

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 03:45 AM.

[houcmg38]

Ok, you got me. Rondo only averages 2.4 FT attempts per, so I'll go along. That would make an exciting starting 5. Rockets could use a veteran leader. If only we were in the East...

[rocketrick]

I forgot to mention in the case of a potential Rondo trade, Patrick Beverley could be included.

[timetodienow1234567]

The way you worded number 2 was wrong. It's protected from picks 1-3 and 20-30, so if the Pelicans stay healthy and make a jump forward into the playoffs, that pick is worthless depending on the W-L record. So it's not "guaranteed".

[rocketrick]

The way you worded number 2 was wrong. It's protected from picks 1-3 and 20-30, so if the Pelicans stay healthy and make a jump forward into the playoffs, that pick is worthless depending on the W-L record. So it's not "guaranteed".

I disagree. I suppose you could add "mostly" in front of guaranteed if you desire.

Why?

What are the chances of the Pelicans making it into the NBA Western Conference Playoffs? Very low probability as the West is loaded. So unless they completely stink it up and end up with one of the 2 or 3 worst records in the entire NBA (very unlikely in my opinion), I think it's a pretty safe bet that this will turn into a draft pick slotted between 4th - 19th.

Besides, if the pick ends up being in the top 3 or New Orleans ends up with one of the top 10 records in the entire NBA (what is the likelihood of that?), then the pick just reverts to the next season and to the next season.

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 04:15 AM.

[kdo]

Am I the only one who understands that it doesn't matter how many sub-par free throw shooters we have.  It only takes one...after that the others are redundant and pointless.  They will always foul Dwight.  Rondo can be on the court with him without causing us any problems.

 

 

I half agree. While I agree that sub-par free throwers aren't the cause of our problems, having more sub-par free throwers will make things worse after the 2:00 mark.

Probablility from some of our statistics suggests that it's mostly even money when you consider the following:

 

- 50% foul shooter means that every foul is an expected 1 point, but the other team gets possesion

- It's even money if they shoot 33% at the three or 50% for a FG
- League average is 36% 3P% and 45.4% FG% for the 2013-2014 season.
- Assuming the team can initiate a field goal play or 3P play 50/50 of the time, the expected value is [(45.5% * 2) + (36% * 3)] / 2 = 0.994
- So Dwight Howard shooting 50% gets us 1 point for every foul shot, results in the league averaging an expected scoring of 0.994 points in reverse

 

So essentially, "hack-a-Howard" is our achilles heel if:
- The other team shoots greater than 33% at the three or

- The other team shoots greater than 50% FG

 

If the opposing team is losing, it's an amazing tactic. The reward is worth the risk.

 

If the opposing team is relatively even in the score, it's still a favorable tactic ESPECIALLY if Houston's offensive rating is greater. "Hack-a-Howard" effectly nullifies our offensive plays.

 

It's ESPECIALLY effective considering our abysmal defense.

 

So yeah, "hack-a-Howard" exposes our weaknesses, and is arguably more effective against our team. Why do you think "hack-a-whoever" doesn't occur as often for other teams even if they have plays that shoot equal or worse than Howard at the free throw?

 

Please note, this is not a criticism on Howard, this is a criticism on sub-par free throwers on THIS Houston team, as it exposes so much of our weaknesses.

So having multiple sub-par free throwers after the 2:00 mark allows for greater chances of "hacking", especially when you have to have it in the hands of Rondo. Before, when we are at the 2:00 mark, Howard's problem is a non-issue if you don't pass it to him anymore, but with Rondo, since you facilitate plays through him, hacking effectively can continue after the 2:00 minute mark.

Edited by kdo, 17 July 2014 - 04:28 AM.

[rocketrick]

The way you worded number 2 was wrong. It's protected from picks 1-3 and 20-30, so if the Pelicans stay healthy and make a jump forward into the playoffs, that pick is worthless depending on the W-L record. So it's not "guaranteed".

I wouldn't characterize the pick as "worthless" either as it is structured such to protect the team that acquired it (and of course protects New Orleans if they end up in the lottery and win the lottery ball contest with a top 3 pick).

This pick just reverts to the following seasons until the pick ends up somewhere between 4-19. Definitely a valuable pick in my opinion.

Unfortunately, Boston has been holding out for 2 such picks. Maybe with a long list of young prospects, Boston can have their arm twisted for one lottery pick and extra prospects? They certainly won't have to take back much salary because of the $8.3 million TPE which is going to be attractive to any team going forward in not having to take back bad contracts (not that the Rockets really have any to offer right now anyway!)

[timetodienow1234567]

Oh I didn't know about it rolling over into next years. Where did you read that?

Edited by timetodienow1234567, 17 July 2014 - 04:42 AM.

[thejohnnygold]

RocketRick, your points have some merit--and I am not claiming that it will never bite us in the butt.  My points are:

 

One--it happens to every team--even the ones with good free throw shooters.  Every team fouls at the end of games to prolong them.  Sometimes it works.  

 

Two--I am operating under the assumption that we will be better at defense.  Ideally, we hold teams beneath that average more often than not.  Ideally, Howard/Rondo shoot 60%+ from the line.

 

Picture it, we could realistically roll out Howard, Jones/Motie, Ariza, Rondo (who has the size to cover SG's), and Beverley.  That's 4 known defensive commodities and Jones/Motie are getting there.  On paper, that line up should be up in the Bulls/Pacers/Grizzlies stratosphere of def. scoring efficiency.

 

Three--Rondo does not have to run the offense at the end of the game--Harden has some experience with that.  Like I said before--if it's that big of a concern we can sub in Bev, Daniels, or whoever for those 2 minutes.  If Rondo doesn't like it he can learn to shoot free throws like a coordinated human being.

 

Geez, so much concern over, what, 10 percentage points on free throws?  Maybe we should wait until he's on the roster to be this concerned about it... 

[rockets best fan]

@rocketrick

I agree the pick is valuable and I agree we have a few assets we can move in trade, however I don't think we have enough for Love. other teams have better offer on the table. as for Rondo if we can't get some assurances he wants to hang around I doubt Morey will spend the pick on him

[rocketrick]

RocketRick, your points have some merit--and I am not claiming that it will never bite us in the butt.  My points are:
 
One--it happens to every team--even the ones with good free throw shooters.  Every team fouls at the end of games to prolong them.  Sometimes it works.  
 
Two--I am operating under the assumption that we will be better at defense.  Ideally, we hold teams beneath that average more often than not.  Ideally, Howard/Rondo shoot 60%+ from the line.
 
Picture it, we could realistically roll out Howard, Jones/Motie, Ariza, Rondo (who has the size to cover SG's), and Beverley.  That's 4 known defensive commodities and Jones/Motie are getting there.  On paper, that line up should be up in the Bulls/Pacers/Grizzlies stratosphere of def. scoring efficiency.
 
Three--Rondo does not have to run the offense at the end of the game--Harden has some experience with that.  Like I said before--if it's that big of a concern we can sub in Bev, Daniels, or whoever for those 2 minutes.  If Rondo doesn't like it he can learn to shoot free throws like a coordinated human being.
 
Geez, so much concern over, what, 10 percentage points on free throws?  Maybe we should wait until he's on the roster to be this concerned about it... 

JG,

You addressed me (RocketRick) but I believe your response actually was for KDO.

I am in agreement for the most part with your take on the FT shooting and have nothing more worthwhile to add.

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 06:42 AM.

[rocketrick]

@rocketrick
I agree the pick is valuable and I agree we have a few assets we can move in trade, however I don't think we have enough for Love. other teams have better offer on the table. as for Rondo if we can't get some assurances he wants to hang around I doubt Morey will spend the pick on him

RBF, I think that goes without saying for any major player that is soon to be a Unrestricted Free Agent the Rockets decide to trade for. We can't afford to empty our cupboards for a 3-4 month rental only!

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 06:44 AM.

[rocketrick]

Oh I didn't know about it rolling over into next years. Where did you read that?

Feigen reported that in his article on Chron.com the other day when the trade was announced. The Rockets actually described the lottery pick as a "near guarantee" after the end of the upcoming season. I should have included "near" in my original post. I think Woj tweeted the same thing awhile back when the trade was first announced way back when. The Pelicans needed some time to clear cap space before making the trade for Asik final.

Edited by rocketrick, 17 July 2014 - 06:47 AM.