The Rockets were contenders before Beverley emerged, and they are still contenders without him. There's too much talent at the top for them not to be. Offensively, not an issue. Defensively, someone, probably Harden, has to step up in the playoffs. Athletically gifted players are capable of stepping it up defensively. I remember Robert Horry basically hanging around for most of the season and then come playoff time he has 20 boards against the Spurs, and you're thinking where did THAT come from.
I'm typically a pretty optimistic person, but hanging our playoff hopes on Harden's defense seem like a bad scenario. I don't doubt for a second that he has the physical gifts to play that end of the court well, but it seems to me like he has been checked out on defense for so long that he has lost some of the rapid reaction, automatic response type defense that is so crucial. He's missed rotations and left his man wide open so often that I have a hard time believing he can just turn it on like a faucet.
With that being said, when the game slows down in the playoffs and there are less offensive and defensive possessions, maybe that will mean that Harden can afford to expend a little less energy on offense and transfer some of that energy to defense. If Lin remains aggressive and doesn't go cold from three, his increase in production and touches could lead to a slightly lower usage rate for Harden. More possessions for Howard in the post could lead to the same thing.
Even with all this said, I'm still fairly pessimistic about the playoffs now. Depending on the match-up, I'll probably consider the first round a toss-up. If we reach the second round, I'll be pleasantly surprised.