62 replies to this topic

[Sir Thursday]

The Knicks are the worst in the league for this sort of thing - somehow either they or their media put out stories along the lines of "New York interested in Player X" without ever giving any indication that the team of player X is even considering their request. It's like they forget that trades require (at least) two interested parties or something.

 

ST

[linonlyfan]

I think in a strange way, after years of years of analysing how Morey does asset arbitrage to improve the longer term prospects of the team, he may have a situation now where its very difficult to extract good value and is forced to stand pat and allow the team to grow. I think Asik and Lin's contracts were actually tabled at a time when it looked like the Rockets would not be able to win in free agency after missing out on Chris Bosh and Pau Gasol. Then Harden falls into our laps, and Howard comes out of no where.

 

Now Asik and Lin have nice chunky contracts to make things happen, but at a time when teams want draft picks or flexibility. The rest would be shuffling role players. I think ultimately, the Rockets do have a sign saying "we will listen to offers for Asik or Lin, BUT this is our expectation (much higher than market right now)". A lot of the trades tabled either mess up chemistry, destroy flexibility or are risky rentals. Asik and Lin might have a better chance to be dealt next year when they become 1 year expiring pieces AFTER management actually gets a chance to see what they can do in the playoffs.

 

This Morey dude could easily have been one of the sharpest operators in a cutthroat Wall Street Bank. He may take out and out risks on draft picks but i think he has this trade thing down pat.

 

Now of course he gonna do a deal, but this is what it looks like. Either we get something unbelievable for Asik or Lin or we do nothing.

[Buckko]

They're deals are not attractive expiring contracts because they will be 15 million.

[LOFlcopter]

Any theories on why Marc Spears made that announcement about Rockets not wanting to let Lin go and then suddenly change it to say he is being actively shopped?  Are the Rockets purposefully leaking info out in a way like this to gauge his value or maybe some team did show interest later on?  Or am I just reading too much into this stuff  

[rockets best fan]

@LOFlcopter

WELCOME TO THE FORUM ...................I have a theory. not only Mark Spears, but most of the national media seems to be pulling for the Rockets not to do well. they get very little praise for their success and tons of hate articles piled on them for every failure. most of the media seems to be looking from the glass half empty point of view. every article I read about trade discussion regarding the Rockets players always starts with that players flaws..........especially Asik and Lin. every article starts with their contracts.

 

I think some of it is left over from the D-12 exit from LA. people everywhere but here seem to want Howard to fail so they can say what a big loser he is. I must admit that's part of the reason I'm pulling for him so bad not as just a Rocket player but a person. I think he is misunderstood.......he's really a good person. that may be me just looking through my Rocket colored glasses, but that's what I see. you can't stop it from happening........haters gonna hate............it's what they do

[Sir Thursday]

Any theories on why Marc Spears made that announcement about Rockets not wanting to let Lin go and then suddenly change it to say he is being actively shopped?  Are the Rockets purposefully leaking info out in a way like this to gauge his value or maybe some team did show interest later on?  Or am I just reading too much into this stuff  

 

My guess is that he put it up and then he got a tip from a source that it was wrong. Whether the source was reliable...no idea.

[datruth]

Lin is an important part of what the rockets are doing right now. A very important piece of the puzzle. 

Why trade him. We have an opportunity to win a championship. Makes no sense. Go rockets.

[Drew in Abilene]

Back to the question about Spears backtracking, I'm less inclined to believe that the entire national media has a vendetta against the Rockets. Maybe there's a little residual dislike towards Houston, but I doubt there's enough to affect the way people do their jobs.

 

I agree with ST that he probably got tipped off that his article was wrong, and wanted to change it as soon as possible. It looks bad if you're a sports writer and you write that a team is absolutely not trading someone, and then they are gone the next day or two. Occam's Razor says the simplest explanation is usually right, and I think that's a much simpler solution.

 

If I were going to propose a conspiracy theory, I wouldn't suggest that Spears was trying to get back at the organization or the fans with the articles, but instead suggest that he did it for page views. That would be something he would be earning money on, or at least his company would. A writer could get a lot of views from posting any sort of news about Jeremy Lin, but he probably gained double views with a strong bold statement like his assertion that Lin would not be traded, then a quick recanting of that in favor of a "He's getting shipped out!" article. I'm not saying I believe that conspiracy, but I find it more believable that someone would post conflicting, possibly false reports for financial reasons rather than spite.

[Buckko]

Agreed.

[rocketrick]

The Knicks are the worst in the league for this sort of thing - somehow either they or their media put out stories along the lines of "New York interested in Player X" without ever giving any indication that the team of player X is even considering their request. It's like they forget that trades require (at least) two interested parties or something.
 
ST

Not to mention the Knicks don't have any assets that anyone wants to trade for. If the Knicks want to give away Carmelo, I'm sure they would find plenty of deals to sift through although I can't imagine a smart GM giving away valuable assets for a short term rental.

[dood]

I think in a strange way, after years of years of analysing how Morey does asset arbitrage to improve the longer term prospects of the team, he may have a situation now where its very difficult to extract good value and is forced to stand pat and allow the team to grow. I think Asik and Lin's contracts were actually tabled at a time when it looked like the Rockets would not be able to win in free agency after missing out on Chris Bosh and Pau Gasol. Then Harden falls into our laps, and Howard comes out of no where.

 

Now Asik and Lin have nice chunky contracts to make things happen, but at a time when teams want draft picks or flexibility. The rest would be shuffling role players. I think ultimately, the Rockets do have a sign saying "we will listen to offers for Asik or Lin, BUT this is our expectation (much higher than market right now)". A lot of the trades tabled either mess up chemistry, destroy flexibility or are risky rentals. Asik and Lin might have a better chance to be dealt next year when they become 1 year expiring pieces AFTER management actually gets a chance to see what they can do in the playoffs.

 

This Morey dude could easily have been one of the sharpest operators in a cutthroat Wall Street Bank. He may take out and out risks on draft picks but i think he has this trade thing down pat.

 

Now of course he gonna do a deal, but this is what it looks like. Either we get something unbelievable for Asik or Lin or we do nothing.

 

I get that Morey is considered smart and the like, but saying he could easily be one of the sharpest operators on Wall Street is hyperbole, to put it mildly... Morey may or may not be smart, but there are thousands of highly intelligent people on Wall Street (and add global firms to that), and pretty much everyone on Wall Street come from an Ivy League school. Geniuses are made and broken on Wall Street regularly, such as Scholes, Black, and Merton. They created a brilliant schotastic differential equation for option premiums, but where are they now? Two went bankrupt (LTCM..) and one is dead (well cancer, but still).

 

I'm sure it is difficult to become effective at trading NBA players but investment trading is a completely different beast, and actually involves a lot of math (well depends on your job). In fact, a lot, if not most, of trading today is done through algorithms (written by mathematicians with a finance background/degree). Also, I'm not sure what you meant by Morey's "asset arbitrage".. Arbitrage is essentially "flipping" securities by exploiting price differences and market inefficiencies, and I don't think any GM does that with NBA players.

 

On-topic: IDK whether or not Howard tarnished the Rockets' image but I'm also backing Howard. He gets a lot of criticism for always smiling and not taking the game "seriously" but I actually like that he has a cheerful disposition and enjoys the game. I mean, would people rather have him wear Demarcus's sour mug?

Edited by dood, 20 February 2014 - 03:06 AM.

[rocketrick]

I get that Morey is considered smart and the like, but saying he could easily be one of the sharpest operators on Wall Street is hyperbole, to put it mildly... Morey may or may not be smart, but there are thousands of highly intelligent people on Wall Street (and add global firms to that), and pretty much everyone on Wall Street come from an Ivy League school. Geniuses are made and broken on Wall Street regularly, such as Scholes, Black, and Merton. They created a brilliant schotastic differential equation for option premiums, but where are they now? Two went bankrupt (LTCM..) and one is dead (well cancer, but still).
 
I'm sure it is difficult to become effective at trading NBA players but investment trading is a completely different beast, and actually involves a lot of math (well depends on your job). In fact, a lot, if not most, of trading today is done through algorithms (written by mathematicians with a finance background/degree). Also, I'm not sure what you meant by Morey's "asset arbitrage".. Arbitrage is essentially "flipping" securities by exploiting price differences and market inefficiencies, and I don't think any GM does that with NBA players.
 
On-topic: IDK whether or not Howard tarnished the Rockets' image but I'm also backing Howard. He gets a lot of criticism for always smiling and not taking the game "seriously" but I actually like that he has a cheerful disposition and enjoys the game. I mean, would people rather have him wear Demarcus's sour mug?

Yeah, those tens of thousands of highly intelligent people on Wall Street damn near cratered the world economy, not to mention the USA economy, back in 2008. How many prestigious firms are shuttered now? Bear Stearns, check, Lehman Brothers, check, etc.

Asset arbitrage is alive and well in the NBA. Some owners undervalue certain players, smarter owners and coaches scoop them up and are able to maximize their talents. By doing so, this increases the value of those particular players for later moves. It's often hard for the average fan to understand monetizing asset values in the NBA because of trading players for draft picks, 2-1 player trades, 3-2 player trades, etc.

I don't get it, how does D12 tarnish the Rockets image? People that say that have never attended a Rockets game in person this season and seen with their own eyes the determination and heart shown by D12's effort this season.

Edited by rocketrick, 20 February 2014 - 04:08 AM.

[linonlyfan]

Well Morey is starting to become a bit of a victim of his success. His philosophy is starting to spread through the NBA through his staff being recruited away, and a lot of bad GM's are starting to go out of business.

 

Rocketrick nailed what i meant by asset arbitrage, and can anyone really say Morey hasn't been inflating assets and selling high (although sometimes the asset goes higher - Lowry/Dragic, sometimes not - Aaron Brooks). A lot of times I remember experiencing heartbreak when the Rockets put a clear underdog (Lowry - small not particularly atheletic) in a starting position, he gets successful and you grow to love him, then gets traded. Im sure if I thought harder I could find more examples, but selling high is a clear Morey thing.

 

Unfortunately Wall Street is a clear example of how very smart people sometimes do very stupid things, especially collectively. I do however believe Morey actually as a pre NBA CV which would have gotten him into the best of the Wall Street firms. Fortunately for us, he chose a far more interesting career in sport management.

 

*Morey graduated from Highland High School in Medina, Ohio^[2] before receiving a bachelor’s degree in computer science with an emphasis on statistics from Northwestern University,^[3] as well as an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management.

[Sir Thursday]

So, Aaron Brooks for Jordan Hamilton, it sounds like. We've got the wing depth we wanted! Sad to see Aaron go, but it always was something of a luxury to have him as the 3rd string PG (and I guess nobody wanted Brewer ).

 

ST

 

[And he was on my list! ]

[redfaithful]

So ST, are you getting any fee?

[Drew in Abilene]

Rockets trade Aaron Brooks to Denver for SF Jordan Hamilton. Hamilton has averaged 12.6 MPG over his career, but has increased to 17.2 this year for the struggling Nuggets. His 3pt% is .357 for his career and .349 for the year. He was drafted in the late first round by Dallas in 2011 out of the University of Texas.

[Cooper]

Hamilton is a solid addition, decent scorer, passable defensively with his length but needs development obviously. 

[Chichos]

Ok don't waste your time looking up Jordan Hamilton highlights... its pretty bare.  Looks like we traded AB for Garcia insurance.

[Sir Thursday]

So ST, are you getting any fee?

 

I should think so! I'm not that expensive though, 1% of total salary will do me...

 

ST

[redfaithful]

I'm definitely on your side.