67 replies to this topic

[Chichos]

Tough to see Boston being involved unless Minny gives up their first pick next year (no idea if this is even possible) and we compensate Minny with multiple firsts with minimal protection.  But great trade machine work

i havent been reading the threads, but i think this would do it

 

http://espn.go.com/n...tradeId=lpcyhdj

 

who says no to that?  Boston gets the big man they want, dump some salary and make themselves worse for this coming draft (they couldnt muster any points with that lineup).  boston gets a 2-way wing player and youth/potential.

 

we would obviously have to give up first round pick(s) as well.  not to mention we have several 2nd round picks to offer

[timetodienow1234567]

Kidd was a GREAT shooter in his 30s.

[Buckko]

I wouldn't trade lin, asik, and other goodies for Love, I would trade D12 and goodies for love and move asik back to a starter.

[Losthief]

I wouldn't trade lin, asik, and other goodies for Love, I would trade D12 and goodies for love and move asik back to a starter.

 

You know whats funny, i think most people and tv 'analysts' don't realize Howard is only playing 34 minutes a game right now. (his least since his rookie year) And I figure this is cause of health, coaches/teams long term goals. So yes, his averages per game are similar to the down year in LAL land, but her per 36 stats are actually much closer to his last 3 Orlando years. In fact, the only thing he is really below more than a marginal statistical variance is his shotblocking. And this includes a slow start to the year for him in November scoring wise.

 

Per 36 min:

                                                 FG%    FT%    ORB  DRB  TRB  Steals  Blocks AST  TOV  PTS  PF

Howard (3 years orlando)         59.3     56.0    3.5     10.0   13.5   1.2      2.4      1.6    3.3    20.1   3.2

Howard (LAL)                            57.8    49.2     3.3     9.2    12.5   1.1       2.5     1.4    3.0    17.1   3.8

Howard (Rockets)                     57.5     53.2    3.7     9.6    13.3    1.0      1.9      1.9    3.3    19.0   3.8

 

Omer (2012-2013)                   54.1      56.2    4.0     9.9     14.0   0.7      1.3      1.1    2.5    12.2   3.3

 

Also, Omer also only played 30 min a game last year without a back-up center available, and 35 minutes in the playoffs, Howard plays 34 minutes a game right now and has usually averaged just under 40 min a game in the playoffs. 5 minutes of game time is a significant drop off, especially when comparing two guys whose the one who plays more minutes provides (per 36 min.) 6.8(!) more points, 0.5 a block more, 0.6 steals, 0.8 assists more while shooting a higher percentage. This is while giving up only 0.6 rebounds less and 0.8 TOV less.** Also, you would have to pay omer after next year, which he'll demand more than 8.3 million a year, so not as much a savings moneywise over the course of the next five years as you would think versus dwight's contract.

 

**(And I could argue that 2.5 TO's is even worse for asik than dwights 3.3 TO's as he didn't lose them on post-ups like dwight but rather in the flow of the game (aka he turns it over more per touch (2.5 TO at a 12% usage rate to 3.8 at a 24% usage rate respectively)).

 

stats from here:

 

http://www.basketbal.../howardw01.html

 

http://www.basketbal...a/asikom01.html

 

Now, devils advocate, He's numbers are bouyed as much by a great december as they are hurt by the slow start in November and current slump in January. If we get December dwight (or something similar) over the next couple years, comparing asik to him is fruitless. If we get November Dwight, you have a better arguement (especially with potential $ savings) as far as value per dollar, but I'd still take dwight cause you can't keep both lin and asik moneywise going forward (after next year) if you get KLove, and Dwight plus KLove is always better than Omer or Lin plus KLove over the next 5 years in my opinion. 

Edited by Losthief, 18 January 2014 - 08:28 AM.

[Buckko]

Those are interesting stats. However Asik has been the far better Defender  this year, and yes you would lose Howard's ability to deter shots at the rim but you would have better Defense and defensive rebounding due to asik never leaving the floor and the best defensive rebounding in the game with love and asik. Not to mention asik would want more, but no where near 12.1 million per year more, along with keeping one of the best 6th men in lin who we can resign few a few million less and still have some change for quality role players.

[Cooper]

Dwight with Love would be great. Asik with love would be overall worse than we are now because you don't have to bother guarding asik if you want to double team love.

[Mario Peña]

I think we can all agree in reality Dwight is not getting traded away. Does anyone really believe that is realistic?

As far as Asik goes I hope the Rockets trade him as soon as the right deal presents itself. His poor character is inexcusable in my opinion.

It's just my opinion but I'm not real high on Love. He doesn't seem as loyal to his team (not saying he isn't) as he is committed to his statistics. Though just speculation, there are those that speculate he is positioning for rebounds before shots go up. It's nothing new but it causes me to view his numbers with some skepticism. I prefer Milsap over Love for team fit/character reasons because of course Love is the better player.

[thejohnnygold]

Good post, Losthief.  You inspired me to go take a look at Howard's numbers when he exceeds 34 minutes.  Here is the rundown:

 

 

Dwight's averages in these games:

 

Points: 22.7

Rebs:  13.8

Blks:      1.8

 

As previously noted by Losthief--all that has really dropped off are his block numbers.  Otherwise, his numbers are pretty much as good as the year they went to the finals ('09) and his overall best year ('11).  Don't forget to note those fg%'s.  Only three of those 18 games have him shooting less than 50% and lots are considerably higher.  His free throw percentage is also better in these games with 9 (exactly half) of them shooting above 60% and 13 games at, or above, 50%.  Our record in these games: 9-9 .

 

Also of note is there are only three upper echelon teams in that list: Portland, Golden State, and the Clippers.  Our record in those games: 2-2.

 

Not sure what it all means, but one could easily infer that we are better as a team when Dwight plays fewer minutes.  We are 17-6 when Dwight plays 34 minutes or less.  (if someone wants to comb through the games and find other correlations feel free--I am sure there are quite a few)

[rockets best fan]

totally agree Feelingsupersonic D-12 isn't going anywhere anytime soon so discussing that is a moot point. now as for the K-Love issue I would have to disagree. he is much more than a stat stuffer. I have watched him for years and the best comparison I can make is a much better version of Scola. he is smart. he doesn't jump the highest or overwhelm his opponent with athletic ability, but he's crafty. he is an excellent passer and makes good decisions without turning the ball over. IMO the only PF's better than him are LMA and A-Davis. because his game does not depend on athletic ability so much he will remain effective for years to come. don't get me wrong I love what T-Jones is becoming right now, but if the Rockets get a chance to go for K-Love they have to jump at the chance. problem is trying to keep T-Jones and Parsons out of that deal. surely Minny will be trying to get one or possibly both away from the Rockets. if we could not keep them out of the deal I say NO DEAL. we have a slight chance to get him this year if Minny continues to collapse approaching the trade dead line. however any deal we could do would have to involve a third team making our path to him more complicated. just like we don't want to deal Asik within the western conference I'm sure Minny feels the same way making the need for our offer to obtain him tastier than what other teams are willing to give up. that's a hard sell, but still possible. I wish making trades was as easy as playing around on the trade machine. however reality is much more complicated. I think our team can survive without K-Love. watching the Rockets this year so far has lead me to believe we need to address two areas before the dead line. we need an A-Affalo type wing player to fill in behind Harden and Parsons and we need to figure out how to get Asik reengaged. if we can not get Asik reengaged trade him in a package that nets us a replacement backup center in addition to other assets. I suspect any deal we do approaching the trade dead line will involve Philly because they have just such a player in S-Hawes. if we are to get K-Love we stand a better chance of getting him in free agency, because we likely can't pay the price Minny is likely to be asking without dismantling some of what we have built. I know Morey recently made reference to us needing that third player on a championship team.......and most people seem to intrepid that statement as him saying we need a third star........I don't. I think he means we need another player who provides impact. that doesn't necessarily mean said player needs to be a star. I think what we need is A-Affalo, a reengaged Asik and good health to make a run    

[Buckko]

I never said I believed in trading Dwight, just stating the possibility. However, we have had this discussion before on bringing in love would weaken our defense while limiting touches and overall scoring for other players. Basically sure we could move up from #2 to #1 offense but we would drop way out of the top 10 in Defense and kill our depth. If you want a 3rd star, I would go for unloading Lin and asik to get Bosh who wouldn't demand nearly as many touches and is a superb defender thus bumping us to championship level on both sides of the floor.

[rockets best fan]

@Buckko

BOSH??????? who is better Love or Bosh? if you said Bosh you haven't been watching basketball recently. while I will agree the gap between them isn't that great.......Love is clearly better. I like Bosh, but let's not get it twisted.............besides Bosh is a action movie hero..........the invisible man

Edited by rockets best fan, 18 January 2014 - 09:47 PM.

[thejohnnygold]

I never said I believed in trading Dwight, just stating the possibility. However, we have had this discussion before on bringing in love would weaken our defense while limiting touches and overall scoring for other players. Basically sure we could move up from #2 to #1 offense but we would drop way out of the top 10 in Defense and kill our depth. If you want a 3rd star, I would go for unloading Lin and asik to get Bosh who wouldn't demand nearly as many touches and is a superb defender thus bumping us to championship level on both sides of the floor.

 

Glad to know my post about Love's improved defense was well-received.  It's right here if anyone cares to re-visit it.

 

Getting back to the weird correlation between Dwight's best performances and our lousy 9-9 record in those games I think I found an answer--margin of victory.  In the games where Dwight plays 34mpg or less we were 17-6 (23 total games) 8 of which were decided by single digits.  In the 18 games where Dwight played extra minutes there were 11 games decided by single digits.  Pretty logical really.  In blowouts he is going to play less.

 

This is going to throw fuel on the McHale-is-a-bad-coach fire.  Of those 11 single digit games where Dwight dominated we only won 3.  11 of our 15 total losses have been by single digits.  It's easy to point the finger at the coach--and I agree that he does need to shoulder some of that blame--but it has been a team effort in these losses.  Poor execution has hindered us as much as anything.  Experience will shift the balance of this in our favor as time goes by.

[timetodienow1234567]

What about trading Asik/Filler for Tyreke Evans? He'd be our starting PG and play backup SF. We might have to give up Bev though.

[Losthief]

I think we can all agree in reality Dwight is not getting traded away. Does anyone really believe that is realistic?

As far as Asik goes I hope the Rockets trade him as soon as the right deal presents itself. His poor character is inexcusable in my opinion.

It's just my opinion but I'm not real high on Love. He doesn't seem as loyal to his team (not saying he isn't) as he is committed to his statistics. Though just speculation, there are those that speculate he is positioning for rebounds before shots go up. It's nothing new but it causes me to view his numbers with some skepticism. I prefer Milsap over Love for team fit/character reasons because of course Love is the better player.

 

I do really like Milsap's and Bosh's fit better than Love to be honest with the current team.

 

But I also like the fact Love is only 25 years old (bosh is 29, milsap 28). Which just fits with Parsons and Harden's window. As the TNT guy said the other night, we are the 4th youngest team in the league, thats a huge advantage.

 

@ johnnygold, great post, good info there. Quick numbers thing I ran before digging into it too much, our point deferential is 3.06 in the sample set you provided, our year to date point differential is 3.17. Basically the same play, so if you subscribe to the idea that point deferential better fortells future win/losses than actual record, the 9-9 record might just be a red herring of a small sample size. However, in the sample size when Howard shoots over 15 attempts we are 2-4 with a point differential of 1.0. Which would say to me as his offensive usage goes up, our team does worse.

 

*we are 3-5 overall this season in games where he shoots at least the 15 attempts with a -3.75 point differenential (mostly due to the -33 indy game he only played 31 minutes in). Which says to me, Howard playing more isn't necessarily bad, howard getting a higher offensive usage rate however, is bad for us.

 

Also interesting to note, we win, and we win big when Howard goes to the free throw line alot regardless of percentage (which says and backs up eye test, aggressive Howard is better Howard), AND we win alot of games when Howard shoots a high percentage on his free throws regardless of attempts. Just imagine if he ever got to shooting say 65%-70% consistentally, I honestly think we could be THE elite team with our current team and that development. Morey should find a way to fix that like hypnosis or something...anything.

 

@ rbf A-Affalo would be an incrediable fit honestly, but i don't see them giving him up for less than tjones or parsons, which I don't think would be worth it.

 

What do you guys think about this:

 

Houston trades Asik and Brewer and 2014 1st

 

Denver trades T. Mozgov (27 years old), Randy Foye (30 years old), and Wilson Chandler (26 years old).

 

http://espn.go.com/n...tradeId=my2f24u

 

I think this solves all our needs as far as I can see. I'd even throw in there choice of g smith, dmo, Omri (i think Chandler would take some of his minutes as the small ball 4) or a 2nd rounder to grease the wheels. However, this does elimate potential cap space 2 years from now, as all 3 guys have 3 year contracts.

 

edit; Ahhh....i toook to long to type, johnny gold basically just said what i took a paper to say, in like 1 paragraph lol!

Edited by Losthief, 18 January 2014 - 10:22 PM.

[thenit]

Howard's fts attempts in winning games doesn't really correlate with him being aggressive. His numbers are hugely inflated when we are winning by hacking him.

[Cooper]

@Buckko
BOSH??????? who is better Love or Bosh? if you said Bosh you haven't been watching basketball recently. while I will agree the gap between them isn't that great.......Love is clearly better. I like Bosh, but let's not get it twisted.............besides Bosh is a action movie hero..........the invisible man

.
I'd take bosh just because he's used to the whole big 3 thing where as love might come in and still want to be "the guy". Plus I'd speculate bosh would be a little easier to get.

[Cooper]

What about trading Asik/Filler for Tyreke Evans? He'd be our starting PG and play backup SF. We might have to give up Bev though.

The Pellies do desperately need a big maybe something like that could work.

[Losthief]

Howard's fts attempts in winning games doesn't really correlate with him being aggressive. His numbers are hugely inflated when we are winning by hacking him.

 

fair enough...though I remember reading when he was on orlando that that still helps the team, because it enduces the penalty for our other players, in our case harden and lin, but aggression might not correlate . I honestly think the best way to get rid of hack-a-big schemes is to get the 4 fouls for the bonus, then IMMEDIATELY after sub out the said big. Then just drive the ball every single time via pick a roll and back picks with your good free throw shooters. The other team still gets the short-term impact of the strategy but you make them pay long term by using the result to get an advantage later. Dunno how practical that is though.

Edited by Losthief, 19 January 2014 - 12:09 AM.

[thenit]

fair enough...though I remember reading when he was on orlando that that still helps the team, because it enduces the penalty for our other players, in our case harden and lin, but aggression might not correlate . I honestly think the best way to get rid of hack-a-big schemes is to get the 4 fouls for the bonus, then IMMEDIATELY after sub out the said big. Then just drive the ball every single time via pick a roll and back picks with your good free throw shooters. The other team still gets the short-term impact of the strategy but you make them pay long term by using the result to get an advantage later. Dunno how practical that is though.

I agree but problem would be that we don't have Asik right now. Also I don't think mchale would sub Howard out either because of his impact on d and status on the team.

[Buckko]

I'd say asik is a far more reliable free throw shooter in the clutch (just ask Scott brooks) and the D would actually get better. Just another way he will help us when he gets back.