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@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Well, thinking twice about it, I'd rather have him score less and have the team as a whole do better. Lawson should take a lot of his load off
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@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
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@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK

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Realistic PF targets, and why LMA isn't one of them.


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#1 RollingWave

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    Posted 15 August 2013 - 02:27 PM

    I know the talk of LMA is all the fad, but looking at it more and more, I find it to be both unlikely and not nearly as practical of a move as most people assume.

     

    It's not only a matter of the cost to get him, which might end up requiring Parsons, but it's also the issue that LMA's best ability (scoring, especially in iso) is likely to be limited by the fact that he wont' get enough touches and the team's current style seem to fit poorly with his skill set.  if he's not shooting enough , it becomes very dubious if he's worth that sort of money.

     

    If you don't believe me , just take a look at Chris Bosh and Ray Allen's FG attempt per game or per 36 after they formed the big 3.  Bosh gets a lot of flak these days but in reality what really happened is that he lost about 3-4 shot attempt going from Toronto to Miami and thus had his greatest value , scoring .. reduced.

     

    LMA is essentially a slightly more watered down version of Bosh, which may shock folks who never seen Bosh in his Raptor days, so there's a very significant chance that he becomes a water downed version of Miami Bosh if he comes to the Rockets, which would be pretty ugly.

     

    Ray Allen also saw this too, he went from 26 points on 21 shots in his last year in Seattle, to 17 points and 13 shots in the next year in Boston (granted, he also played fewer minutes, but the drop was amazing. he essentially went from amazing to merely solid . ) 

     

    So , beware of what your getting,

     

    I'm of the opinion that Asik and Howard is at least worth experimenting for half a season if not a full season and I see reasons why it could work out, but if it doesn't work out,  and the team really aims to trade a full time PF, the following guys is who I see as seriously underrated and probably a great fit with the team.

     

    All of them are at least solid defensively.  can hit mid range shot or more effectively, an does a lot of off ball things really really well. and they're cost and situation is at the point where they are at least theoretically tradable to us without us losing a Chandler Parsons in the process. and all of them are not too old to the point where you fear they see massive decline quickly.

     

    My list is

     

    1. Paul Millsap

    2. Thaddeus Young

    3. Ersan Ilyasova

    4. Amir Johnson

     

    of the group,  Millsap seems like the most obvious candidate in terms of trade lineup, because the Hawks have long expressed a desire to push Al Horford to the 4 and pair him with a great , he just signed so the trade can't happen for half a season, but like i said we most certainly want at least half a season to see what happens as well.  Millsap is a very complete player who do a lot of things, and his defense have also been raved on, he was probably the best player on those post Williams Jazz teams,  that was generally fairly competent.

     

    The next one in terms of lineup is probably Thaddeus Young, in that... he's almost certainly available... and that the phone between Houston and Philly is surely wide open,  Young has been basically the one good player on a bunch of disastrous philly teams,  last year.. Jrue Holiday made the all star team, but if you look at the season , Young was almost certainly their best player.   the dude can shoot (added bonus, he's also lefty ;)  ) and he can defend pretty well too,  he just screams of a guy that should do well in a better situation. and what's more sad is that he actually did shoot the 3 reasonably... until Doug Collins apparantly decided that was a bad idea ... oops.

     

    Ersan Ilyasova is another guy.. he's leathal from 3, just a step down from Ryan Anderson, but almost certainly more of an asset on defense.  I don't see how a trade lineup with the bucks at the moment, seeing that you wouldn't want to pair Asik with Larry Sanders, but I suppose theoretically a trade involving Lin might interest them. Though that really depend on a lot of things that hasn't happened yet.

     

    And finally there's Amir Johnson, he's been in the league for a long time but only 25, he plays a very physical style but also have a decent touch from mid range, is the best rebounder of this group, and generally been buried in Toronto, which is unfortunate , but it's not hard to see his ability, especially a great offensive board guy.

     

    Trading Johnson seem to be the hardest to lineup, seeing that the Raptors have center and PG locked up, and with their current roster configuration and now finally with a competent GM, I figure they'd more likely keep Johnson than trade him. unless the package is overwhelming.

     

    Another guy who's a step below these 4, but almost certainly easier to get, would be Jason Thompson, for him, you might not even need a Asik or Lin, trading a Jones or Dmo or pick + random pieces might do. and most certainly if you offer Asik it happen easily and we might get other things in return.  I suppose a trade of Asik +Jones for Thompson + Chuck Hayes a 2nd rounder might be kinda interesting. I would hope for the price of Asik we'd get someone a bit more proven though. like the 4 guys I'd named above.

     

     

     

     


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    #2 CC.

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    Posted 15 August 2013 - 07:35 PM

    Why didn't you include Ryan Anderson in your list though? I'd take him over Amir Johnson, personally.


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    #3 Buckko

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      Posted 15 August 2013 - 07:56 PM

      Why would we pay that much for a 5th option PF. Completely redundant. All we need them them to do is rebound, defence, and hit a 3. That's it. We don't need to pay 8-10 million for a guy to score 8-10 points when we have jones, demo, and casspi  to do that.  


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      #4 Buckko

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        Posted 15 August 2013 - 08:00 PM

        I know the talk of LMA is all the fad, but looking at it more and more, I find it to be both unlikely and not nearly as practical of a move as most people assume.

         

        It's not only a matter of the cost to get him, which might end up requiring Parsons, but it's also the issue that LMA's best ability (scoring, especially in iso) is likely to be limited by the fact that he wont' get enough touches and the team's current style seem to fit poorly with his skill set.  if he's not shooting enough , it becomes very dubious if he's worth that sort of money.

         

        If you don't believe me , just take a look at Chris Bosh and Ray Allen's FG attempt per game or per 36 after they formed the big 3.  Bosh gets a lot of flak these days but in reality what really happened is that he lost about 3-4 shot attempt going from Toronto to Miami and thus had his greatest value , scoring .. reduced.

         

        LMA is essentially a slightly more watered down version of Bosh, which may shock folks who never seen Bosh in his Raptor days, so there's a very significant chance that he becomes a water downed version of Miami Bosh if he comes to the Rockets, which would be pretty ugly.

         

        Ray Allen also saw this too, he went from 26 points on 21 shots in his last year in Seattle, to 17 points and 13 shots in the next year in Boston (granted, he also played fewer minutes, but the drop was amazing. he essentially went from amazing to merely solid . ) 

         

        So , beware of what your getting,

         

        I'm of the opinion that Asik and Howard is at least worth experimenting for half a season if not a full season and I see reasons why it could work out, but if it doesn't work out,  and the team really aims to trade a full time PF, the following guys is who I see as seriously underrated and probably a great fit with the team.

         

        All of them are at least solid defensively.  can hit mid range shot or more effectively, an does a lot of off ball things really really well. and they're cost and situation is at the point where they are at least theoretically tradable to us without us losing a Chandler Parsons in the process. and all of them are not too old to the point where you fear they see massive decline quickly.

         

        My list is

         

        1. Paul Millsap

        2. Thaddeus Young

        3. Ersan Ilyasova

        4. Amir Johnson

         

        of the group,  Millsap seems like the most obvious candidate in terms of trade lineup, because the Hawks have long expressed a desire to push Al Horford to the 4 and pair him with a great , he just signed so the trade can't happen for half a season, but like i said we most certainly want at least half a season to see what happens as well.  Millsap is a very complete player who do a lot of things, and his defense have also been raved on, he was probably the best player on those post Williams Jazz teams,  that was generally fairly competent.

         

        The next one in terms of lineup is probably Thaddeus Young, in that... he's almost certainly available... and that the phone between Houston and Philly is surely wide open,  Young has been basically the one good player on a bunch of disastrous philly teams,  last year.. Jrue Holiday made the all star team, but if you look at the season , Young was almost certainly their best player.   the dude can shoot (added bonus, he's also lefty ;)  ) and he can defend pretty well too,  he just screams of a guy that should do well in a better situation. and what's more sad is that he actually did shoot the 3 reasonably... until Doug Collins apparantly decided that was a bad idea ... oops.

         

        Ersan Ilyasova is another guy.. he's leathal from 3, just a step down from Ryan Anderson, but almost certainly more of an asset on defense.  I don't see how a trade lineup with the bucks at the moment, seeing that you wouldn't want to pair Asik with Larry Sanders, but I suppose theoretically a trade involving Lin might interest them. Though that really depend on a lot of things that hasn't happened yet.

         

        And finally there's Amir Johnson, he's been in the league for a long time but only 25, he plays a very physical style but also have a decent touch from mid range, is the best rebounder of this group, and generally been buried in Toronto, which is unfortunate , but it's not hard to see his ability, especially a great offensive board guy.

         

        Trading Johnson seem to be the hardest to lineup, seeing that the Raptors have center and PG locked up, and with their current roster configuration and now finally with a competent GM, I figure they'd more likely keep Johnson than trade him. unless the package is overwhelming.

         

        Another guy who's a step below these 4, but almost certainly easier to get, would be Jason Thompson, for him, you might not even need a Asik or Lin, trading a Jones or Dmo or pick + random pieces might do. and most certainly if you offer Asik it happen easily and we might get other things in return.  I suppose a trade of Asik +Jones for Thompson + Chuck Hayes a 2nd rounder might be kinda interesting. I would hope for the price of Asik we'd get someone a bit more proven though. like the 4 guys I'd named above.

        Honestly I think they want to keep young for a veteran in his prime when they MCW, Noel, probably Wiggins and someone like Aron Gorden or a PF in full swing.


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        #5 Cooper

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          Posted 15 August 2013 - 08:33 PM

          Why would we pay that much for a 5th option PF. Completely redundant. All we need them them to do is rebound, defence, and hit a 3. That's it. We don't need to pay 8-10 million for a guy to score 8-10 points when we have jones, demo, and casspi to do that.

          our current pf is the 5th option just because they aren't that good, getting a millsap young etc they wouldn't be the 5th option.
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          #6 Buckko

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            Posted 15 August 2013 - 08:45 PM

            our current pf is the 5th option just because they aren't that good, getting a millsap young etc they wouldn't be the 5th option.

            We don't need another huge scorer. Lin and Parsons together will be 30 points a night at least, Howard will be 20-23, Harden 23-27 (Will become more efficient and get more open looks), add in 10 points for jones.

            You would get around 70-90 points from your starters. I will even go light with 60-80 then you still have bench scorers in Garcia, Beverley, Demo, and Williams.

            Adding another major player would just force our other players to shoot and scorer less which would make it completely redundant and makes this "star PF" an severely overpaid role player. Along with the fact of destroying our 2nd unit's defense and killing our Howard insurance in trading asik.


            Edited by Buckko, 15 August 2013 - 08:46 PM.

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            #7 RollingWave

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              Posted 19 August 2013 - 03:25 AM

              Well, you can never score too much in reality, and your scoring assumption has a few risk in that your probably underrating some potential issue with usage, aka, everyone scores more when they're the 1st option, but you can't have  team where everyone's the #1 scoring option.

               

              BUT, the guys I've picked out on the list are mostly guys I see as good complimentary player, where they can score a little in certain fashions that'll help the team, who'll remain relatively effective even as the 3rd / 4th options . And most of them brings at least above average defense.

               

              As it is now, the team looks like they'll almost certainly just stay with this group next season , probably for the whole season, because that Asik / Howard thing will probably work ok in the regular season (because almost anything pulled by competent teams work ok in the regular season.)  the real question is will it work in the playoffs? I don't think anyone really knows.


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              #8 Buckko

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                Posted 19 August 2013 - 03:46 AM

                Well, you can never score too much in reality, and your scoring assumption has a few risk in that your probably underrating some potential issue with usage, aka, everyone scores more when they're the 1st option, but you can't have team where everyone's the #1 scoring option.

                BUT, the guys I've picked out on the list are mostly guys I see as good complimentary player, where they can score a little in certain fashions that'll help the team, who'll remain relatively effective even as the 3rd / 4th options . And most of them brings at least above average defense.

                As it is now, the team looks like they'll almost certainly just stay with this group next season , probably for the whole season, because that Asik / Howard thing will probably work ok in the regular season (because almost anything pulled by competent teams work ok in the regular season.) the real question is will it work in the playoffs? I don't think anyone really knows.

                it would be excellent for closing out games.
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                #9 John P

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                  Posted 19 August 2013 - 01:50 PM

                  I think I am coming around to this way of thinking.

                  LMA is awesome and I am a big fan but you have to look at the team as a whole and see how a player would fit.

                  Wade and LeBron took some time to learn how to mesh their similar games....and adding LMA (half court game) with the runners of Houston would also require some awkward period of transition.

                   

                  I do think a player that is great on D with a good jumper would be ideal.  ...sort of take Josh Smith, make him a smarter shooter, and with a more mature attitude and you get success.

                   

                  Bosh would actually be perfect, as a great jump shooter, or Love even better, but they already have Pek, so it would require a 3rd team

                   

                  Maybe a trade with Portland (give them Asik), TWolves get LMA (good alternative to Love) and we get Love

                  Just sitballing

                   

                  anyway, Millsap could be the one....lets just hope Atlanta wants Asik more than Millsap


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                  #10 Buckko

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                    Posted 19 August 2013 - 10:05 PM

                    I think I am coming around to this way of thinking.

                    LMA is awesome and I am a big fan but you have to look at the team as a whole and see how a player would fit.

                    Wade and LeBron took some time to learn how to mesh their similar games....and adding LMA (half court game) with the runners of Houston would also require some awkward period of transition.

                     

                    I do think a player that is great on D with a good jumper would be ideal.  ...sort of take Josh Smith, make him a smarter shooter, and with a more mature attitude and you get success.

                     

                    Bosh would actually be perfect, as a great jump shooter, or Love even better, but they already have Pek, so it would require a 3rd team

                     

                    Maybe a trade with Portland (give them Asik), TWolves get LMA (good alternative to Love) and we get Love

                    Just sitballing

                     

                    anyway, Millsap could be the one....lets just hope Atlanta wants Asik more than Millsap

                    You guys do remember how Howard fared with another big man in the paint, you know Gasol and the lakers? We have our shooters and our stretch 4s. There is nothing in the league we could get on a return value for asik and his commitments. You want to trade our premier second unit defense and Howard insurance for more pointless scoring and another big to get in Howard's way? Fine, you can talk about it, but Morey would never pull something like that, he's too smart. Also a LA or Love trade would just be fantasy friend. You need something someone else wants before you can even think of making a trade. 


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                    #11 Cooper

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                      Posted 20 August 2013 - 01:18 AM

                      Millsap wasn't in Jefferson's way and he does even more post work than Howard.
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                      #12 timetodienow1234567

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                      Posted 20 August 2013 - 01:24 AM

                      Millsap's a good player. The stats say he's near elite. The eye test says he's above average. But I'd rather have LMA, Bosh, Griffin, ZBo, Horford, and a few others before him. But I do think he's a steal at what the Hawks are paying him. I can't believe he signed that deal. He had to know that he's HUGE trade bait.


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                      Why so Serious? :D


                      #13 Buckko

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                        Posted 20 August 2013 - 04:23 AM

                        Millsap wasn't in Jefferson's way and he does even more post work than Howard.

                        Jefferson isn't Howard and Howard has proven he can't work well on a regularity with another man packing the paint. Plus we have enough offense but we need asik's defense. 


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                        #14 Drew in Abilene

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                        Posted 21 August 2013 - 12:52 AM

                        I agree with the general premise of this post. I also think acquiring Aldridge would cost more than his talents would be worth in our system and surrounded by our personnel. I think that the Rockets would do well to trade either Terrence Jones or D-Mo, Greg Smith, and maybe a pick for a power forward who would be a slight improvement over our current power forward duo. Leave whichever of the two we don't trade as a back-up, and don't expect the PF position to become the third of a Big 3.

                         

                        Maybe I'm way off base here, but it seems to me like Asik coming off the bench to dominate defensively is more important than significantly upgrading our starting power forward. I'd rather have elite defense the whole game than lose Omer and gain a stronger 4 if that means that our interior defense goes down the drain whenever Dwight steps off the floor.


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                        #15 Buckko

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                          Posted 21 August 2013 - 01:16 AM

                          I agree with the general premise of this post. I also think acquiring Aldridge would cost more than his talents would be worth in our system and surrounded by our personnel. I think that the Rockets would do well to trade either Terrence Jones or D-Mo, Greg Smith, and maybe a pick for a power forward who would be a slight improvement over our current power forward duo. Leave whichever of the two we don't trade as a back-up, and don't expect the PF position to become the third of a Big 3.

                          Maybe I'm way off base here, but it seems to me like Asik coming off the bench to dominate defensively is more important than significantly upgrading our starting power forward. I'd rather have elite defense the whole game than lose Omer and gain a stronger 4 if that means that our interior defense goes down the drain whenever Dwight steps off the floor.

                          I agree but I believe we need to let our PFs some time on the floor before we think about a trade.
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                          #16 Drew in Abilene

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                          Posted 21 August 2013 - 02:24 AM

                          I agree but I believe we need to let our PFs some time on the floor before we think about a trade.

                          Yeah, I'm with you. My proposed trade would be if after the season it was clear that an upgrade was needed to be a championship-quality team.


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                          #17 RollingWave

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                            Posted 21 August 2013 - 03:05 AM

                            Given out money situation, it's very unlikely to upgrade at the 4 without trading one of Lin or Asik, the money simply won't match. though I guess they're could be for a Jason Thompson who makes only 5M or so. but it's going to be tricky.

                             

                            If it's only for Jason Thompson , then we need to only shell bout about 3 m in contract (or more obviously.) but that's kinda doable with a Dmo + something,  Thompson deserve to be rescued from the Kings really, and he won't complain much on relative limited role, so that might actually be nice.

                             

                            I feel though, if the Asik thing actually works, then the 4 isn't a huge issue anyway, Asik would probably take up 10 min or so of the PF position, you go small for another 10 min, then you split the remaining 28 min or so between 3 guys, it's hard to be that bad in such a small window. if the Asik thing works really well you might even increase his time there.


                            Edited by RollingWave, 21 August 2013 - 03:09 AM.

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                            #18 Buckko

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                              Posted 21 August 2013 - 03:45 AM

                              Given out money situation, it's very unlikely to upgrade at the 4 without trading one of Lin or Asik, the money simply won't match. though I guess they're could be for a Jason Thompson who makes only 5M or so. but it's going to be tricky.

                              If it's only for Jason Thompson , then we need to only shell bout about 3 m in contract (or more obviously.) but that's kinda doable with a Dmo + something, Thompson deserve to be rescued from the Kings really, and he won't complain much on relative limited role, so that might actually be nice.

                              I feel though, if the Asik thing actually works, then the 4 isn't a huge issue anyway, Asik would probably take up 10 min or so of the PF position, you go small for another 10 min, then you split the remaining 28 min or so between 3 guys, it's hard to be that bad in such a small window. if the Asik thing works really well you might even increase his time there.

                              Howard would play the 4 which I have been saying all summer.
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                              #19 timetodienow1234567

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                              Posted 21 August 2013 - 03:52 AM

                              Howard would be the 4. Howard said it. Mchale said it. Morey said it. Stop putting Asik at the 4 in your lineups.
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                              Why so Serious? :D


                              #20 rockets best fan

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                              Posted 22 August 2013 - 01:57 AM

                              @Rollingwave

                              totally disagree with the idea LMA is less of a player than bosh. the four replacement PF's you mention for the Rockets to pursue, none would be worth the investment because they are not enough of an upgrade over the youngsters we have. I also disagree with the idea that LMA is not worth pursuing and is impossible to obtain without including Parsons. that would be the same line of thinking that many thought would keep D-12 from coming here.  LMA is the perfect match long range shooting big man to pair with D-12. true there will be a reduction in his shot attempts from what he is use to taking now, but there will still be plenty of shots to go around, especially if you reduce the shots for ineffective players. assuming Lin, Asik and G-Smith would be gone in any such deal would leave a few shots that need to be absorbed. enough IMO to keep the big three happy. I am not against us waiting a little to see if the youngsters we have are capable of fulfilling that role first as in that could very well happen. I would like to see Lin hit the road, but would rather keep Asik. if that appears unlikely then Lin should be attached to any attempt to move Asik. as for Asik some seem to discount his value. Asik is a defensive anchor elite rebounding 7 footer capable of putting up a double doulble every night who has no lingering injury problems. those are hard to find. if Asik was on the open market right now he would easily command 12-13 per year, yet he is paid far less. that's a steal for any team he would be moved to. I keep hearing people talk about Ryan Anderson.......first off the Rockets have already been offered Anderson and turned it down and rightfully so. Anderson is nothing more than a glorified role player. what was he able to do last year without D-12? that's why the Pelicans are willing to move him. IMO both T-Jones and D-Mo have a higher ceiling than him. they simply have not yet had the same opportunity. so he would be a waste of time and money. in addition we would be creating a monster at our backdoor by allowing the Pelicans to obtain the one thing they need.........a legitimate center. that's a lose IMO.....they are in our division you know. we don't want to make the same mistake OKC did do we? of course not, so any deal sending Asik to the Pelicans is a none starter to me. should the Rockets pursue LMA..........YES, but right now IMO the following players are off the table.....D-12, Harden, Parsons, D-Mo and T-Jones. we are not in a position of weakness....we are in a position of strength. so if the deal isn't something we like we are free to walk away. however I don't see many teams out there right now who could out bid us. so when the dust clears we may just be the last man standing


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                              you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own B)





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