113 replies to this topic

[Steven]

The problem with the stats from 94/95 was Drexler was brought in around the trade deadline. So the rest of the players numbers are inflated. They went down after Drexler arrived.

Edited by Steven, 10 July 2013 - 03:44 PM.

[bboley24]

You all are putting way too much pressure on the little guy. I don't think Lin needs to score anymore.  Last year he definitely needed to put points on the board but not anymore.  As long as he can give us that 7 assists and 12 points maybe a three a game im game.

Lin - 12/7
Harden - 23/5/5
Parsons - 15/5/5
Jones - 8/8
Howard - 22/11/2

 

Bench making up the difference.  That to me is very reasonable within the confines of their past and abilities.

[rockets best fan]

You all are putting way too much pressure on the little guy. I don't think Lin needs to score anymore.  Last year he definitely needed to put points on the board but not anymore.  As long as he can give us that 7 assists and 12 points maybe a three a game im game.

Lin - 12/7
Harden - 23/5/5
Parsons - 15/5/5
Jones - 8/8
Howard - 22/11/2

 

Bench making up the difference.  That to me is very reasonable within the confines of their past and abilities.

you know I don't agree on Lin, but as for the stat lines t-jones will probably be closer to 12/8 and Howard closer to 20/14/2

[Mario Peña]

I like what you are putting down bboley but what Lin needs to cut back on is turnovers and help neutralize opposing teams point guards. Lin should be able to make inroads against all the elite point guards in the West now that he has a year under his belt and 48 minutes of an elite defensive big backing him up. Lin has the most to gain by Dwight Howard joining the Rockets on both ends. If Jeremy Lin stays and succeeds it will be in large part thanks to the big guy. At this point maybe Lin's biggest asset is to partner up with Parsons as the good lockerroom guys that keep the team grounded to compliment the two superstars.

(How great does that sound, we got two bonafide superstars!)

[bboley24]

You sounded like a locker room speaker!  

You are very spot on about the turnovers.  At times I can remember going crazy when Jlin would drive the lane (which was great!) and jump, subsequently throwing the ball somewhere hoping someone would be there.  He did it all season long.  It was like he wanted the defense to collapse so he could kick it out but he didn't know where or what the ball would be doing once he was in the lane.

[ale11]

Let's not forget Tyson Chandler looked unstoppable on that PnR with Lin back in NY....I agree that Howard's arrival can't do anything but benefit Lin. I don't remeber exactly, but I think he averaged something like 16 or 17 turnovers per game last season, and at least 8 had to do with Asik, a number which I expect to decrease at least to 2 given that Howard can catch a ball. It's imperative to sell Dwight on embracing playing PnR again like he did in Orlando.

[bryan22583]

Interesting stats from the Dream/Drexler era.  I'd forgotten that those guys were just 32 when they won the title -- for some reason they seemed older (maybe that simply was older during that generation, or maybe it was the latter years playing w/Barkley & Pip that left a lasting imprint).  What jumps out at me is the all too often forgotten stellar quality of their supporting cast.  A young Big Shot Bob and Sam Cassel, Otis Thorpe, Mad Max, Kenny Smith, and the underrated Mario Elie…man that's one hell of a squad.  Better than they get credit for when the best teams of all time are discussed.  I think that's mostly a result of the unfounded assumption that Jordan's Bulls would have beaten them if he'd not been playing baseball.  Looking at it now, I seriously doubt it.  Max was one of the few guys wholly unafraid of Jordan, Drexler would've occupied Pippen, and no one the Bulls could have thrown out there could've remotely slowed Hakeem.  Anyway, I've gotten pretty far afield here...

 

The point I intended to make is that the current Rockets roster is no match for that team.  It starts with Dwight: with all due respect, he's no Hakeem.  I think at times he's been close to as good defensively, but he's simply not in the same stratosphere on the other end of the court.  As excited as I am to see him play at full health this season, I'd caution against expecting too much from him in the post.  Dwight's ham-handed down there, even if he was underutilized in LA.  He's a turnover machine, and has precisely zero reliable post moves.  Remember, those championship Rockets teams revolved around Hakeem drawing double and triple teams and his elite court vision to find shooters with precision passing. Howard won't draw as much attention, nor can he approximate Hakeem's passing.  

 

Now Harden can compensate for some of the gap.  He's better than anyone who played on those Rockets squads by a significant margin.  Beyond Harden, however, only Parsons and Asik (who's as good as gone…we'll see what he garners in a trade) could've played crucial roles on those old Rockets teams.  That's a problem.  If we essentially offset Parsons with Horry (he was way better back then than in last days w/Spurs), and Asik with Thorpe (actually a somewhat apt comp.), we're still left with Cassell, Maxwell, Smith, and Elie unaccounted for.  These Rockets don't have to be historically great to win a ring, but I'm afraid that without more behind H&H, they're far behind even the most pedestrian champions.  

 

Finally, with regard to LIn, I agree w/@feelingsupersonic that we can expect some improvement, particularly on the defensive end.  On offense, however, I think we'll see even more turnovers on a per minute basis.  Lin is essentially a pick & roll player…Howard struggled mightily to run that play with Nash.  It resulted in a turnover nearly half the time, many of which were credited to Nash.  If I'm Lin, I shoot 500 spot up threes a day from now until October. If he does that, and improves his effort defensively, perhaps he can become one of the missing pieces to the supporting cast puzzle. 

[rockets best fan]

@bryan22583

1.welcome to the forum

2. I agree Howard is no Hakeem. but he doesn't have to be. Hakeem played at a time frame where giants still roam the paint. at the time Hakeem played Ewing, Robinson, Shaq, Kareem, Parrish and McHale (just to name a few) were all in the league at some point. that level of competition isn't present in todays league. Howard is fully capable of dominating any of the bigs in the league right now, so in that light he is Hakeem for this generation

3. the players you named as the supporting cast for the championship teams are only known to you because of the championships. all of them had their flaws. when you win the championship there's enough glory for all to enjoy. the cast we currently have on this team is on par with that championship cast. they just don't have the fame, but the talent is there.

4. as for Lin.......you're new here  so I don't want to toss the mother load of our past debates on him in your lap, but I don't believe he is the right PG for this team and I will just leave it at that 

[thenit]

Let's not forget Tyson Chandler looked unstoppable on that PnR with Lin back in NY....I agree that Howard's arrival can't do anything but benefit Lin. I don't remeber exactly, but I think he averaged something like 16 or 17 turnovers per game last season, and at least 8 had to do with Asik, a number which I expect to decrease at least to 2 given that Howard can catch a ball. It's imperative to sell Dwight on embracing playing PnR again like he did in Orlando.

 

16 - 17 turnovers? You mean the team  right? And agree there was 4-5 a game from asik dropping the balls and couldn't catch. Lin and Harden should benefit from that change to D12 look at what Chandler could do with Lin and D12 is even better than Chandler. Just hope that D12 feels like going for 15 PnRs

[thejohnnygold]

Ha--this is good.  I didn't mean to start a debate about this roster vs. that one--mostly wanted to show the supporting/role players' stat lines for reference--which, as Steven noted above, were probably even lower than what is shown due to the Clyde trade.

 

I think we all agree that turnovers are a problem--but it's not just Lin--that was a team problem.  I expect improvement from everyone in that regard.

 

I was thinking about it yesterday and I think Lin is going to get quite a few "ghost assists" next season.  By this I mean, he is going to drive and draw the defense his way and basically do a shot-pass off the backboard knowing that Howard is there to go up and put it in on the other side.  Those typically get scored as missed fga, rebound, and putback....but they are often intentional and I think Lin is selfless enough to not worry about his fg% as long as the team is scoring.

[thenit]

Its a good debate. I don't know about the stats but out backcourt must have been the most turnover prone in the league.

[miketheodio]

The pg spot doesn't have to be at an all star level. It needs a 3-5 mil type player. All Lin has to do is pass the ball. Handle it a bit. catch and shoot 3s. Drive to the basket a minimal amount. I think Lin can fill this no pressure minimized role compared to what was required of him last season. If he does, then the only negative is his salary and how it takes 3 mil away from getting a better bench/great 6th man scorer. 12 and 8 is damn fine to me especially with ghost assists.


You guys are blaming way too many TOs on asik(some were ill advised passes from harden). He'd have 1-3 fumbles a game. There seems to be some gloss on harden and Lin. Getting trapped. Jump passes and trying to sell calls.

[thejohnnygold]

The pg spot doesn't have to be at an all star level. It needs a 3-5 mil type player. All Lin has to do is pass the ball. Handle it a bit. catch and shoot 3s. Drive to the basket a minimal amount. I think Lin can fill this no pressure minimized role compared to what was required of him last season. If he does, then the only negative is his salary and how it takes 3 mil away from getting a better bench/great 6th man scorer. 12 and 8 is damn fine to me especially with ghost assists.


You guys are blaming way too many TOs on asik(some were ill advised passes from harden). He'd have 1-3 fumbles a game. There seems to be some gloss on harden and Lin. Getting trapped. Jump passes and trying to sell calls.

Agree--this all revolves around Lin's salary...it comes off the books in two years and hasn't prevented us from assembling an enviable roster.  I'm cool with it.

[rockets best fan]

Ha--this is good.  I didn't mean to start a debate about this roster vs. that one--mostly wanted to show the supporting/role players' stat lines for reference--which, as Steven noted above, were probably even lower than what is shown due to the Clyde trade.

 

I think we all agree that turnovers are a problem--but it's not just Lin--that was a team problem.  I expect improvement from everyone in that regard.

 

I was thinking about it yesterday and I think Lin is going to get quite a few "ghost assists" next season.  By this I mean, he is going to drive and draw the defense his way and basically do a shot-pass off the backboard knowing that Howard is there to go up and put it in on the other side.  Those typically get scored as missed fga, rebound, and putback....but they are often intentional and I think Lin is selfless enough to not worry about his fg% as long as the team is scoring.

team turnover problems will drop this year on this fact alone. fact: Asik couldn't catch a cold on most days  the man is a great defender/rebounder, but he couldn't catch a pass with the old NFL stickum on his hands. sometimes the turnover fell on someone else, but they should have been his. D-12 will finish these plays.

 

funny you should mention ghost assist. are you trying to give Lin another angle in ways he can be valuable? because anybody can toss it off the backboard. we just had a stat comparison in the other thread and now you are pointing out a way to circumvent the stats.........hmmmm. that's part of my argument with looking at stats only.......sometimes they don't give you a clear picture. YES they are useful, but not a know all be all evaluation

[miketheodio]

Asik was barely the cause of 16 turnovers. It was less than a quarter of that avg at the most.

[rockets best fan]

Asik was barely the cause of 16 turnovers. It was less than a quarter of that avg at the most.

if we had 16 a game and he was just a quarter that cuts us to12. that along is a nice improvement

[timetodienow1234567]

You guys are as bad as Kobe fans. They(ESPN) believe a miss by Kobe is better than miss by other players. I actually read a few quotes last year detailing their explanation. It was so ludicrous that I burst out laughing.

[miketheodio]

if we had 16 a game and he was just a quarter that cuts us to12. that along is a nice improvement

it was 1-2 a game. i said "quarter" for a max figure. harden and lin were more turnover machines than asik.

[bryan22583]

@rocketsbestfan: Thanks for the warm welcome.  I see what you're saying about the different level of competition for big men these days.  But doesn't that do more to undermine than promote the idea that Dwight's this generation's Hakeem?  That is, against inferior bigs, shouldn't Dwight be even better?  It's not just that he's not better, it's that he's markedly worse.  Watching him operate in the post against anything other than one on one defense in a clear out is actually a lot like watching MWP in the post.  Neither has much of a plan for what to do with the ball, and both resort simply try to out-brute the defender, which often results in offensive fouls.  Fortunately, Dwight's 6'9 and not 6'6, so he has a higher success rate.  

 

I'm with you on Lin, but I'd have to disagree re: the supporting casts.  Titles certainly boost reputations, but only Elie's fame is drawn from those Houston titles. Horry, Smith, Thorpe, and Cassel were all quite legitimate high level players in many other contexts --- Smith, Thorpe, and Cassel even All-Stars I believe.  Besides, who on this roster could rival Kenny as a commentator?  

[webattorney]

Let me start by reminding that I am not some starry-eyed Lin devotee that thinks he hung the moon and is infallible.  I am looking at this as a Rockets fan--plain and simple....

 

I get the calls for upgrading the PG position--it is always good to be open minded about upgrading the team.  What I don't get is what anyone thinks is actually going to be better.  For those who think Bev is the answer--do consider the shift in USG% over the course of an entire season plus better scouting reports and the necessary shift in defensive energy to be able to play starters minutes throughout the season.  Further, Bev is a SG with good handles and a decent floor general, but he is not a player capable of running an offense--his per 36 numbers are not as good as Lin's and those extrapolations are often better than reality for high-energy reserves.

 

Here is a list of the league's PGs

 

Bearing in mind the salary cap and who is actually available (meaning their team would be willing to part with the PG we want) I can't see a single player that is an obvious upgrade at this time.  Most of the best PG's are either entrenched on their teams (like Tony Parker, CP3, Derrick Rose, etc.) or are on rookie contracts and are cornerstone pieces for their franchises (Kyrie, Wall, etc.).

 

After that we have to look at fit.  I think most agree that a strong spot-up shooter with above average defense that can create off the dribble and play some pick n roll while gladly deferring to Harden and Howard is the ideal.  Funny how much that sounds like Lin (presuming his shooting stroke resembles the second half of last season or better)...

 

Before anyone says Goran Dragic--I don't think so.  They are nearly identical players and the loss in team chemistry would not justify that exchange.  Phoenix only makes that trade if we include other assets--not a good deal.  Based on their per 36 numbers from basketball-reference.com, the difference is 1 point and 1 assist per game extra for Dragic, but with a higher usg%.  Lin also sports a better 3 pt.% for the season.  To me that is a wash.

 

Are we talking Alexey Shved, Jimmer Fredette, Mo WIlliams, etc. to replace Lin?  (Actually, Jimmer is intriguing....but I still think Lin's overall package is better.)  Is Greivis Vasquez available?  If so, what's the price tag on that?  Does New Orleans make that trade?

 

I think Lin is going to do very well this year with so much talent around him.  Yes, his $8.3M cap hit is a little higher than people would like but it's not that far out of line and there is a solid chance he re-signs for a more palatable amount once that contract expires.

 

I honestly expect to see him flirting with 40% 3pt., and a solid 15 pts, 8 assists per game with a better assist/turnover ratio.  I just don't see a better fit that's available.  Maybe Canaan or Bev can take the starting role from him in time, but for now it appears to be his spot.

 

As for the rest of the team....I hope they are preaching strong defense across the board, but especially to the PF's.  I'd be content if they scored zero points a game as long as they play strong D and clean the glass like champs.  Parsons, Harden, Howard, and Lin will provide the bulk of the scoring load followed by Bev, Garcia, and Asik. 

 

Good points.  Do you interpret Lin's silence regarding Howard's joing Rockets as an indication that Rockets has told him that they are shopping him around?