Jump to content


Toggle shoutbox Shoutbox Open the Shoutbox in a popup

@  Mario Peña : (10 October 2015 - 01:12 PM) If your part if the Red94 Fantasy Basketball League check the thread to vote for the date and time for the draft event. Thanks y'all!
@  jorgeaam : (07 October 2015 - 08:47 PM) Guys we need 1 more owner for the Red94 fantasy league, if interested please comment on the post in the fantasy basketball thread
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 06:50 PM) Kobe ranked one spot higher than Ariza? Is this based on legacy or...??
@  slick shoes : (07 October 2015 - 04:13 PM) It was hard to keep up with both the Astros and Rockets at the same time. Should be interesting on Thursday with the Texans and Astros on simultaneously.
@  Mario Peña : (07 October 2015 - 04:09 PM) It was fun to have the Rockets on last night! Right now I'm watching the Celtics versus Milan and Alessandro Gentile is impressive.
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Well, thinking twice about it, I'd rather have him score less and have the team as a whole do better. Lawson should take a lot of his load off
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 07:47 PM) Loving that, hope he hits 30 PPG this year
@  thejohnnygold : (06 October 2015 - 06:15 PM) Someone is feeling confident :) : LINK
@  jorgeaam : (06 October 2015 - 05:54 PM) 10 Teams done, will need 2 more
@  Mario Peña : (06 October 2015 - 02:35 PM) Alright guys, if anyone is interested in joining the Red94 fantasy basketball league we could use one more player to get us to 10 teams (or three to get us to 12 teams). Just check the thread in the Fantasy Basketball forum. Thanks!
@  thejohnnygold : (05 October 2015 - 06:23 PM) I use leaguepass here in Austin with no problems...
@  skip 2 my lou : (05 October 2015 - 03:14 PM) Hey fellas, I'm a rocket fan but I live in the heart of Dallas. Does anybody know if I buy NBA Leaguepass if it's too close to be subject to blackouts?
@  Losthief : (02 October 2015 - 02:24 AM) tks jg
@  thejohnnygold : (29 September 2015 - 05:16 AM) FYI, it was media day today. Interviews are up at NBA.com
@  slick shoes : (23 September 2015 - 06:37 PM) kind of late in the day but NBATV is broadcasting classis Rockets games all day today.
@  SadLakerFan : (16 September 2015 - 04:37 AM) Man, as a Laker fan, I'm learning how little you care about the off season when your team sucks. Anyway, a quick moment to remember Moses. Still remember watching the 81 team as a kid - losing record, NBA Finals. I would have cried w/joy if they could have beaten the Celtics.
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) http://bleacherrepor...ist-after-crash
@  jorgeaam : (15 September 2015 - 08:30 PM) So to celebrate his new contract, Montrezl Harrell saved someone's life on monday
@  thejohnnygold : (14 September 2015 - 04:36 PM) A good article from Blinebury talking about when Hakeem and Moses used to play in the park. LINK
@  rockets best... : (14 September 2015 - 02:29 AM) I agree totally. I got to watch his Rocket days and the man was a hell of a player. BIG MO R.I.P.

Photo

The Great Stats Debate


  • Please log in to reply
115 replies to this topic

#101 thenit

thenit

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 671 posts

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 07:56 PM

    How many times have you heard someone call James Harden inefficient? I've heard it several times from several different people, not only are these people wrong, they couldn't be any further from the truth. If we take a closer look at Harden's efficiency (there's so much that FG% doesn't tell us), while acknowledging the fact he's a high volume scorer and capable passer, we will notice that he is actually among elite company--I can't stress enough how impressive this is.
     

     
    But don't just take my word for it. Here's a recent article I came across: http://offthedribble...ord-great/?_r=0
     

     
    For those who don't understand what TS% is (true shooting percentage), it's like FG% but it accounts for the value of free throws and 3's. 37% from 3 is equivalent to 55.5% from mid-range. The league average from mid-range is 39%...
     
    So there you have it. Not only is James Harden efficient, his efficiency is legendary. Be thankful Rockets fans.


    Not a big stats guy but please explain to me how harden almost have the same ts as bird when bird shot better 2s 3s and fts. Ts looks flawed in my mind and I agree with a lot of Johnnygold statements
    • 0

    #102 Mason Khamvilay

    Mason Khamvilay

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 3,216 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 07:57 PM

    25+ points, 60%+ TS, 5.8+ assists, has happened 9 times. Jordan twice, Lebron thrice, Wilt once, Bird twice.

     

    So nice I had to say it twice  :ph34r:


    • 0

    #103 Mason Khamvilay

    Mason Khamvilay

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 3,216 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 07:59 PM

    Not a big stats guy but please explain to me how harden almost have the same ts as bird when bird shot better 2s 3s and fts. Ts looks flawed in my mind and I agree with a lot of Johnnygold statements

    Because of the volume of 3's and free throws Harden makes. It's actually a pretty basic stat.

     

    eFG% (effective field goal percentage) = FG% + value of 3's
    TS% (true shooting percentage) = FG% + value of 3's and free throws.

     

    It's all basic math. 


    Edited by 2016Champions, 22 June 2013 - 08:00 PM.

    • 0

    #104 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 09:04 PM

    I'll elaborate on the above...

     

    eFG% takes into account that a 3-pt. shot has more value and so every 3 pt. shot is equal to 1.5 regular shots. (regular shot = 2 pts.  2 x 1.5 = 3)

     

    So shooting 40% on threes would actually equate to a 60% eFG. (this is before factoring in other scoring)

     

    TS% is the same as eFG% with free throws added in.  Since free throws do not include any FGAs (field goal attempts) they can only increase a player's overall %.  It is a good way to measure a player's scoring prowess; however, as noted above it does not necessarily indicate that one is a good shooter.  Centers almost always have higher TS%'s due to lots of dunks and shooting fouls.  James Harden averages over 8 made free throws per game, so when using TS% you basically factor in an extra 8.6 points, plus an extra 2.3 points for the 2.3 threes he makes per game.

     

    Now, the actual formula, according to basketballreference.com, is this: PTS / (2 * TSA).  Points divided by 2 times true shooting attempts.  True shooting attempts are: FGA + 0.44 * FTA. (What's this coefficient?  An estimate used on all players regardless of actual performance--uh-oh!)

     

    So, Harden's TS% is simply 25.9 / 2(17.1+ .44*10.2) -->25.9 / 2( 21.6) -->25.9 / 43.2 = .5995, or 60%

     

    The coefficient skews things a little.  This GUY took the time to use each players actual coefficient instead of a generic one...not much difference really.


    • 1

    #105 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 09:17 PM

    Check this out.  It focuses on Kobe, but that's not the point.  A little ways in, the author stumbles upon what I was alluding to about calculating efficiency based on possessions...Here is the quote to look for:

     

    "One simple way to balance these two pieces of information out is to look
    at the player's points produced per team possession when he's on the
    court, which rewards both efficiency and usage volume. Here are the 2011 leaders by that metric"

     

    Unfortunately, this is a 2011 article so James Harden is not on the list--it'd be cool if he was.  It's not a perfect model, but it is interesting.


    • 0

    #106 Mason Khamvilay

    Mason Khamvilay

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 3,216 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 09:53 PM

    So where does Harden rank by that measure? You seem to have a good understanding of the statistic, so can you figure it out?

     

    p.s. The stuff you said about centers have a high TS% is a moot point, because in my short article/long post I said  "while acknowledging the fact he's a high volume scorer and capable passer" so there aren't any centers (besides Wilt) who would qualify.

     

    If I bumped down the criteria of TS% and assists down just a little bit, guys like Hakeem and Shaq would enter the discussion, but that's nothing to sneeze at. 


    Edited by 2016Champions, 22 June 2013 - 10:02 PM.

    • 0

    #107 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 10:03 PM

    So where does Harden rank by that measure? You seem to have a good understanding of the statistic, so can you figure it out?

     

    p.s. The stuff you said about centers have a high TS% is a moot point, because in my short article/long post I said  "while acknowledging the fact he's a high volume scorer and capable passer" so there aren't any centers (besides Wilt) who would qualify. 

     

    I have no idea--I never claimed any great understanding of it--just thought it was interesting.  Feel free to tackle the problem and let me know...

     

    Not sure why you don't like the mention of centers--I was helping thenit understand the stats.  Seems relevant to me.


    • 0

    #108 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 10:17 PM

    This is the list from basketballreference.com.....I see plenty of centers/post players on this list.  How are they not relevant?

     

    ...and this is Hollinger's list from this year


    • 0

    #109 Mason Khamvilay

    Mason Khamvilay

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 3,216 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 22 June 2013 - 10:17 PM

    Oh, yes it's relevant to understanding the stat. It's also important to remember that TS% is a measure of efficiency, it's not a measure of the better offensive player (which I've noticed is a common misconception among those who think it's a flawed stat). 

     

    If a player doesn't have much of a role within the offense then it doesn't matter much how efficient he is. That's why I brought PPG and APG as a criteria. Bringing guys like Tyson Chandler and Nene into the discussion ignores that criteria. 


    Edited by 2016Champions, 22 June 2013 - 10:21 PM.

    • 0

    #110 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 23 June 2013 - 03:09 PM

    I am well aware of what TS% measures--I have gone into detail on that.  It exploits a loophole in the rules to generate a perceived efficiency where one may, or may not, exist.  I agree that it is not a measure of the better offensive player--it measures scoring efficiency based on points earned vs. FGAs.  By ignoring the number of possessions required to earn those points and solely focusing on counted FGA's it skews the perception.  I haven't even brought up turnovers and their role in this--if you want to include assists (which is weird since they are not part of TS%) then turnovers must be included.  It is all a matter of how one looks to define efficiency and if we are going to look at it in a completely fair way then I believe FGAs leaves a lot to be desired.  If we instead use total possessions (akin to USG%) and look at points scored from that perspective I think it paints a better picture.  In basketball, possessions are the main currency--without them, you have nothing.  When a player turns the ball over 4 times that must be brought into consideration.  That is 4 possessions squandered.

     

    This is why I prefer eFG% if one is to be used.  It uses a clear formula without contrived coefficients to derive an accurate number.  While it still ignores total possessions used, it does not give bonuses for the loophole that FTs do not count as a possession, or FGA.  For players like Ryan Anderson or JJ Redick, TS% is probably fairly accurate because those guys only shoot 2 FTs per game, but James Harden gets nearly a full point bonus.  He jumps from .504 eFG% to .600 TS%.  That's a huge discrepancy based solely in FTs (and the loophole--as it still cost us a possession to get those points).

     

    It's fine if you don't think TS% is flawed--it is applied equally to everybody so that makes it somewhat fair; however, it clearly favors players who shoot more FT's than other players.

     

    Regarding big men's efficiency being of no consequence--regardless of their role--well, I'm surprised by this viewpoint.


    • 0

    #111 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 23 June 2013 - 03:40 PM

    Here is a quick mock-up of how I would like to view Harden's efficiency--the numbers I reached were interesting.

     

    First, here are the stats I will use:

     

    7.5 fg  17.1 fga  2.3 3fg  6.2 3fga  8.6 ft  10.2 fta  5.8 ast  3.8 to  25.9 pts

     

    So, including fta's (divided by two) we reach:

    22.2 possessions
    +3.8 tos=
    26.0 poss
    +5.8 ast=
    31.8 poss

     

    Next I will add in assisted points (assuming 2 points per assist--hard to get data on this)


    25.9 pts + 5.8*2 = 11.6pts

    +11.6 pts =
    37.5pts

     

    Next...

     

    37.5 pts/31.8 poss = (1.18 ppp) (59% eff.)

    Now without assists...

     

    25.9/26.0= 1.00 ppp (50% eff)

     

    What's cool is that, including assists his efficiency was almost exactly what his TS% is and without assists his efficiency is almost exactly (off by .04) of what his eFG% is.  In this model, players with more assists get rewarded, but that's ok because that's the point of the assist stat in the first place.

     

    Despite reaching essentially the same numbers, I prefer this method because it does not allow for any exemptions.  I know it somehow seems like I am anti-Harden and call him inefficient or whatever.  I don't believe I ever said that directly nor do I believe it.  Instead, this helps support both of our notions that he is an amazingly efficient offensive player when it comes to putting points on the scoreboard.  I still believe his fg shooting is sporadic, at best, and unreliable.  I see many other players get panned for this, but for some reason Harden gets a free pass (probably because of the free throws).  I actually do see this as a positive--like I have said multiple times, I expect him to improve on this.  If/when this happens imagine what his efficiency numbers will look like....without 15-20 games of 5-17 FGs to weigh him down those numbers will be through the roof and the more important stat--WINS--will benefit as well.  :)


    • 0

    #112 Mason Khamvilay

    Mason Khamvilay

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 3,216 posts
    • LocationVirginia, USA.

    Posted 23 June 2013 - 03:47 PM

    PPG + TS% combined is a simple way of comparing scorers, and that's good enough for me. I'm not bothered by the fact TS% rewards guys who get to the line (if I was, I would just use eFG%). 

     

    A good scorer would typically score 1 PPP (point per possession). Every time Harden gets to the line he's a 1.85 PPP guy...


    Edited by 2016Champions, 23 June 2013 - 03:53 PM.

    • 0

    #113 thejohnnygold

    thejohnnygold

      Veteran

    • Moderators
    • 4,128 posts
    • LocationAustin, TX

    Posted 23 June 2013 - 04:35 PM

    wait, how do you combine ppg and ts%?  25.9 + .600 = 26.5?  I'm not being snarky--I truly don't get it.

     

    You have to remember that throughout this discussion I have a lingering concern about Harden's ability to continue getting foul calls at the rate he is getting them.  Without this context my perspective may seem bizarre--I just don't believe it is sustainable--I may be wrong, but if that happens he will come crashing back to earth real fast based off of his other performance numbers.  Remember, this is what happened to Kevin Martin to some degree.  It can happen.

     

    The guys on top of that list you posted all have very high ft rates--both in # taken and made--Larry Bird's two best TS% seasons just happen to correspond to the two seasons he took the most ft's (albeit still far less than the others).


    • 0

    #114 Steven

    Steven

      Veteran

    • Members
    • PipPipPipPipPipPip
    • 2,008 posts

      Posted 23 June 2013 - 05:13 PM

      Stats are like Rahat's take on Leonard, so so so overrated. ;)
      • 0

      #115 thejohnnygold

      thejohnnygold

        Veteran

      • Moderators
      • 4,128 posts
      • LocationAustin, TX

      Posted 23 June 2013 - 05:44 PM

      Fair enough... :)

       

      They do provide a language, or framework, with which to base comparisons/observations--but you're right--they are inherently flawed. The thing I dislike most is the lack of context.  An assist is an assist on paper, but an unguarded 15' pass on the perimeter followed by a made jumper is way different than a 40-foot bounce pass on a fast break that splits two defenders and hits a cutting teammate right in the hands for an easy dunk.

       

      Bearing that in mind, I do recognize that any criticism I make towards Harden must take into consideration his situation on the court--which is largely why I am optimistic about him improving on the things I nit-pick him for.


      • 0

      #116 Mason Khamvilay

      Mason Khamvilay

        Veteran

      • Members
      • PipPipPipPipPipPip
      • 3,216 posts
      • LocationVirginia, USA.

      Posted 06 July 2013 - 01:01 AM

      Randomly came across this interesting article and thought I'd share it incase anyone else finds it interesting: Live by the 3, or die - by Henry Abbott


      • 0




      1 user(s) are reading this topic

      0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users