115 replies to this topic

[Mason Khamvilay]

Yep, it's not surprising that as soon as the Grizzlies hired a VP with a background in analytics Rudy Gay gets traded straight away lol

[BenQueens]

I think the most important role for a 5 is defense and rebounds, the biggest player who is always in the paint has that responsibility. Offensively you just take what you can get from your 5, the pick n roll is nice because big men set huge screens, and if he can do more than that it's a luxury but it's not expected because all to rounded 5s are so rare.

Post ups from big men are overrated, the main reason you want that is to suck defenses in then kick it out for open looks, but guards can create to same effect by driving and kicking. Miami and OKC have the best offenses in the league but hardly post. Grizzlies offense suck but all they do is post.

I'm not sure how FTs factor into these numbers. I have a feeling that posting up and settling for a short (3-9') jumper is overrated (it will usually be contested), but posting up for a shot at the rim has pretty good results if you factor in FTs and your bigs shoot better than 70%. I know that's reflected in TS%, but I wish we could see it broken down as eFG% for the different shot locations.

[Mason Khamvilay]

www.MySynergySports.com is where you can go to find out post-up fg%, and I can tell you without even looking that posting up is not the reason why alot of bigs have a high TS%. Just look at Tyson Chandler, his TS% is through the roof and when is the last time you saw him post up? But if you throw him a pick and roll alley oop he'll dunk it almost every time. 

 

Pick and rolls are definitely the best way a big man can contribute offensively if you're factoring in volume and efficiency, and it just so happens that Harden is in the 95th percentile at scoring on pick and rolls (and he's a good pick and roll passer too)

[BenQueens]

When was the last time I saw Chandler post up, or when was the last time I saw Carmelo pass it to him? HI-OH!

[Mason Khamvilay]

Touche.

[thejohnnygold]

BenQueens, welcome to the great stat debate !

 

Thanks for breaking down the 16-23 fg% chart--I think you're right that the better teams, while shooting fewer attempts than most teams (although almost 2x the Rockets) they shoot them at a higher clip--partially due to having better players (like West, Bosh, or Duncan) but also in the way they go about shooting them.  We've spoken at great length about Josh Smith's long two's.  Those are the bad ones.

 

I don't want the Rockets to start jacking up a bunch of mid-range shots, but 12-14 smart looks from 15 ft. or so per game I think will balance the offense and keep the defense honest.  While the efg% aspect is certainly lower, I believe it is balanced by the positive effect it can have on our shooting in the other 2 zones.  It's just an opinion, and one that leads me to the next point....

 

What kind of addition do we want to make for this team?  First, Dwight scares the heck out of me.  Still, if we sign him I foresee lots of dunks on PnR's, cuts, and put-backs plus probably 12 or so iso-post-up opportunities for him per game.  His post ups were not his strong suit last year--he shot 45% from the post and turned the ball over 18% of the time in the post while only drawing fouls 15% of the time (making 49% of those) per mysynergysports.com.  Still, I think it is a good way to rest the perimeter players while making Dwight feel involved and hopefully more energetic throughout the entirety of the game.  I think the benefits justify the cost. 

 

I was surprised by a snippet from the Bill Simmon's article that came out today--Dwight has never averaged more than 2 assists per game.  I would have lost that bet had someone offered it...in my head, he passed out to three point shooters more often in Orlando...and maybe he did, but they often made extra passes around the perimeter to get better looks...I'd have to investigate that.

 

Moving on to other ideas, it is likely that a stretch 4 is the ultimate goal--Morey has made no secret about his preference for that.  I think the only way that doesn't happen is if a star player at the 4 comes along who isn't necessarily a stretch threat.

 

Personally, given our current roster, I'm still on board with Josh Smith.  I think he affords us everything we want from the 4 (assuming our system curtails his bad habits) while giving us time to evaluate the other PF's we have.  We can then use those pieces to hopefully trade for better depth at SF or SG (although I still like Anderson at back up SG).

 

Despite Smith's faults, he is a strong finisher at the rim, a solid passer, can dribble-drive, and teams must respect his range from the right side.  This works well as Harden prefers the right side of the court--those two can run pick n rolls all day long with lots of options coming off of them given the combined skill sets involved.

 

To come back full circle to the mid-range idea.  One of these wrinkles in said pick n roll would be a pull up jumper by Harden from about 16-18 ft.  One, if it's an open look it's not a bad shot.  The better part is that J.Smith can still roll off the screen and once Harden elevates he can dish to the rolling Smith for a very high percentage shot (roughly 70% according to mysynergysports.com as I would count that as "cutting to the basket" as the pick n roll man he shoots 50%--so let's call it 60%).  Part of why this is extra useful is the opposing bigs often get caught shot-watching on pull-up jumpers and try to get into rebounding position early once they see the shooter pull-up.  This will allow Smith relatively little resistance as he goes up for the finish at the rim.  If Harden does pull the trigger then Smith is already in perfect position to go get the rebound (where he scores at a 60% clip as well).

 

I could go on and on about the different plays and sets I think we could run with Smith--many a bit unorthodox--but I think that, like Lebron, Smith has the size, speed, and skills to run these plays.  Not saying he is as good, but paired with Harden I think the two could be very lethal on offense.  Their potency would also alleviate defensive pressure from guys like Parsons and Lin allowing them to get lots of open looks.  Meanwhile, Asik will spend lots of time getting rebounds and put backs as so much focus will be on stopping Harden/Smith--Also, I think Asik will get quite a few easy buckets from little passes at the rim as the defense must shift to stop the initial attack....Ha, look at me...still going on and on and on...

 

OK, one last thing--Smith also suits our team philosophy because he is an able and willing player in transition.  Going back to mysynergysports, Smith scored 69% of the time on 255 opportunities while getting fouled 14% of the time--he has a curious 21% turnovers in transition...not sure what that's about...maybe trying to be too cute with his passes?

[Mason Khamvilay]

Dwight's PPP on post ups  (0.74) is very bad. Dwight's PPP on pick and rolls (1.29) is crazy good. The fact he posted up on 45% of his possessions and only pick and rolled on 11.4% of his possessions is truly head scratching. 

[BenQueens]

Dwight's PPP on post ups  (0.74) is very bad. Dwight's PPP on pick and rolls (1.29) is crazy good. The fact he posted up on 45% of his possessions and only pick and rolled on 11.4% of his possessions is truly head scratching.

This is what I was trying to get at when I was talking about FTs earlier: Howard doesn't have a refined post game, and he can't shoot FTs, so it's hardly surprising that his TS% from the post is so low (basically 37%, right?). I'm curious how craftier big men with better FT% look (eg Duncan or Randolph) by the same measure, or even just better FT-shooting bigs. Much to my shame, I can't figure out how to see PPP by shot type on stats.nba.com

The things about the efficiency-driven 3: They're almost always assisted, and generally wide open. Of course they're worth more. On the other hand, they draw no fouls, and are a more difficult shot. Plays in the post are also usually assisted, but they're rarely open. However, the ones that end at the rim draw fouls on easier shots, so given the right personnel I can see how it might approach the effectiveness of a "good" 3 (in the same way you need the right personnel to make the 3 efficient). I just can't find the reports on that stats site to answer my question.

Of course, it appears to be easier to find athletes that can hit an open 3 35-40% of the time than it is to find big men who can hit FTs 70-75% of the time, so there's also that.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I understood most of what you're trying to say, and here are some things that came into my mind after I read your post:

 

The most efficient ways to score (based on league averages):

 

free throws

shots in the paint

3's

mid-range shots

 

So I can see where you're getting at, free throws is right at the top of the list but that's only if the player can make them. 

 

For anyone interested, here's Dwight's offensive Synergy stats:

 

So as you can see, Dwight gets fouled 23.2% of the time on PnR's, 15.1% of the time on post-ups. I don't really know if that means anything because Dwight is such a bad free throw shooter, but despite that flaw he's still ranks in the top 10 on pick and roll efficiency. I think defenders are intentionally fouling Dwight because you would rather give him one point at the line than two easy points at the rim, but the silver lining to that is it helps Dwight's team get into the penalty alot quicker and defenders are going to get fouled out. If Dwight sends for example Marc Gasol to the bench, that gives Dwight's team a huge advantage.

 

When I think about how Harden ranks 5th at handling the pick and roll, and Dwight ranks 10th at being the pick and roll man, I start drooling at the thought of how unstoppable the Harden/Dwight pick and roll will be. I'm not getting my hopes up on Dwight coming to Houston, but if he does I might have to consider changing my screenname to 2014201520162017201820192020champions. Just kidding, I know that screen name not possible. 

[thejohnnygold]

I can't argue with that.  While Dwight doesn't bring a lot to the offensive end besides dunking and rebounding--those two things are done extremely well....well enough to be able to ignore the rest.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think we could be the best offense and best defense, or at least very close, especially if we do a S&T for a competent PF too. 

[Steven]

I think we could be the best offense and best defense, or at least very close, especially if we do a S&T for a competent PF too.

Don't need a PF. Have one already, just have to play him.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I think Millsap and Smith are top 20-30 players. Our current PF's are top 100-200 at best. Don't get me wrong, I'm very high on D-Mo and Terrence Jones becoming top 50 players one day, but if we get Dwight we want to win now, why wait?

[Steven]

Millsap and Smith are top 20-30 PFs.

[miketheodio]

I think my biggest problem with 2016 is i really hope morey doesn't have that stance. the "3&3" philosophy is great. i think it is a great foundation to build on, but that isn't to say it is complete. what house is complete with only the foundation? I'd like to see growth and a more complex offense with a base in the "3&3".

 

I have huge problems with being a live or die by the 3 team.

[Mason Khamvilay]

You realize we're 2nd in the league at points in the paint right? And we're 4th best at free throws attempted...

 

At the end of the day, if we rank 4th in TS% and 6th in offensive efficiency then we're doing something right. If you have a problem with that that's up to you, you're allowed to have problems with whatever you want, but I feel pretty damn good about where our offense is heading. 

[miketheodio]

rockets struggle when the 3s aren't going in. points in the paint get reduced vs great defensive teams. in the regular season it's fine. problems come up in the playoffs.

 

if the offense remains the same, i dont see a championship happening.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Grizzlies and Nuggets hardly take any 3's, how did that work out for them in the playoffs? Spurs and the Heat take alot of 3's, I guess logically you can't see them winning a championship either?

 

And for whatever it's worth, when Hakeem won championships for Houston in 1994 and 1995, we led the league in 3's both years. 

 

Now go find me a team that led the league in mid-range shots while winning championships. 

[miketheodio]

Grizzlies and Nuggets hardly take any 3's, how did that work out for them in the playoffs? Spurs and the Heat take alot of 3's, I guess logically you can't see them winning a championship either?

 

And for whatever it's worth, when Hakeem won championships for Houston in 1994 and 1995, we led the league in 3's both years. 

 

Now go find me a team that led the league in mid-range shots while winning championships. 

Where did i say i want to lead the league in mid range shots? I don't know why you think I have the stance of a completely new offense. I have said the current offense is a very good base. I think it should have more layers to it is all. instead you bring up a polar opposite strawman.

 

the heat and spurs aren't dependent on 3s to win. they find other ways to win. they can deal with shots not going in. they do not rely strictly on 3s, FTs, and shots at the basket. The spurs offense is the offense I'd like the offense to grow into.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I was just pointing out that teams that take a lot of threes have been successful. And alot of teams struggle when their 3's aren't going in, Spurs and Miami are the same way, so that's just silly to insinuate that we're the only team that does that.

 

We don't have the personnel to play the way the Spurs do, and I think the fact our offense rivals theirs despite alot less talent on our squad is a testament to how impressive our offense is. Fixing something that isn't broken just seems weird to me. 

 

I do agree we can take some things from the Spurs though, like their defense, their lack of turnovers, the way they don't change what they do in crunch time, but I think those things will come in time. We can't compare a core that has been together for about a decade to a core that has been together for one year. 

 

By the way, I'm not really a fan of debates but this is a thread that's titled "The Great Stats Debate", so making a comment like "if the offense remains the same, i dont see a championship happening" without any statistical support just seems a little underwhelming.