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@  cointurtlemoose : (21 November 2015 - 06:39 AM) McHale might not have been a great coach, but he definitely was NOT the problem with this team...
@  majik19 : (21 November 2015 - 02:31 AM) our team is just embarassing
@  cointurtlemoose : (19 November 2015 - 07:11 AM) That was the most Corey Brewer thing I have ever seen
@  majik19 : (19 November 2015 - 04:20 AM) how the hell did that happen? maybe just switching from McHale to JB will change our bad luck...
@  Willk : (19 November 2015 - 03:58 AM) in my face
@  bboley24 : (19 November 2015 - 03:55 AM) So that just happened
@  Cooper : (19 November 2015 - 03:53 AM) got the win
@  Willk : (19 November 2015 - 02:06 AM) fire McHale! playing like crap again
@  SadLakerFan : (18 November 2015 - 06:21 PM) It's unfair, but it's the right move because it's the only move major move they had available to them. But, it seems just a tad premature - I wonder what was really said in the player meeting.
@  majik19 : (18 November 2015 - 06:03 PM) So much for building off continuity now that the core is in place... It's probably about time for another "Morey's Plan" article from Rahat.
@  txtdo1411 : (18 November 2015 - 05:26 PM) No problem. He definitely made it clear that changes will continue to be made until we are winning again.
@  cointurtlemoose : (18 November 2015 - 05:19 PM) Thanks for the link, txtdo; good words from Morey, I thought
@  cointurtlemoose : (18 November 2015 - 05:14 PM) Wow, I expected this 6 or 7 games from now if things didn't change... This seems a tad early. And they better have a replacement actually in mind and ready to hire, otherwise this seems like a misguided move
@  txtdo1411 : (18 November 2015 - 05:13 PM) Its going on right now.
@  txtdo1411 : (18 November 2015 - 05:13 PM) http://api.viglink.c...9&title=Rockets Press Conference 11am - ClutchFans&txt=http://www.khou.com/videos/news/loca...7/29/12651418/
@  slick shoes : (18 November 2015 - 05:12 PM) Anyone know where to listen in to the DM press conference?
@  DenverRocket : (18 November 2015 - 04:50 PM) Shocked too, but then again not. Something had to give. I can't see JB being given the reins f/t. Surely they have a contingency? Thibs?
@  txtdo1411 : (18 November 2015 - 04:48 PM) I wonder if the plan is to find a replacement fairly quickly, or to give JB a shot. I'm trying to understand how things would change, since JB has been in the locker room all year. The players are going to give him effort now just because McHale is gone?
@  majik19 : (18 November 2015 - 04:22 PM) just shocked. I feel like this is now a lost season. We were struggling under McHale, but do we really think J.B. can lead us to a championship?
@  thenit : (18 November 2015 - 04:19 PM) Its becoming a winner or becoming Melo, great scorer but not coachable

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#61 Mason Khamvilay

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Posted 11 May 2013 - 10:30 PM

Wow, thanks for the thorough answer. 

 

I think context is something we can't expect to be included in any statistic, it's something we have to apply on our own. 

 

Personally, I don't think the stats do Millsap justice, he has probably been the most underrated player in the league the last few years, and on the premise that he's a perfect fit on the Rockets (a very rich man's Patrick Patterson imo), I think he makes us at least 4 or 5 wins better. And a healthy Kevin Love probably makes us around 7 or 8 wins better imo. 

 

I heard Daryl Morey say on the recent podcast that he calculates 3.5 more wins next season if we were to bring back the same squad (I wish I had access to his statistics, he's probably 10-15 years ahead of what's available to the public), so I'm guessing next season we could look something like this

 

With MIllsap: 53 wins

With Love: 56 wins

 

And the season after that we would improve another few wins moving towards elite contender status. By 2016 we're champions :D


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#62 thejohnnygold

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Posted 11 May 2013 - 11:24 PM

you're right about context and statistics--which is why I've really grown to dislike most of the advanced stats.  I think I'd like to see someone keep track of plays based on quality.  Have a range from "WOW!" to "I just threw up in my mouth watching that" and assign point values.  Instead of compiling it all into one score that obscures everything simply give me a pie chart or bar graph...something!  Keep one for offense and one for defense.

 

I agree that Millsap adds wins--if only by not being a confused rookie.  I think your love for Love has you biased.  He will not produce at the same rate on our team as he has done for Minnesota...I suspect he could be a 20 and 10 guy at best, but it is more likely he is 18 and 8.  Granted, he will have nights where he may go off for 30 and 20, but the 18 and 8 will be the norm.  I actually trust Millsap to maintain his numbers more than Love.  He doesn't need plays run for him to be effective on the court and make an impact.  I do still like Love's passing abilities--those will be useful.

 

I'm guessing that Morey's stats are ideal in that they combine raw data with expert subjectivity to produce a useful surmisal of each player's abilities and contributions.  We, as fans, only have access to some of that data.  I caught a snippet recently, maybe watching last night's SA-GS game, that mentioned Sleepy Floyd is working for a sports book in Vegas....that says a lot about what the big boys use to gain an edge....cuz I'm pretty sure it's not for his accounting skills.

 

I think 50 wins is a legitimate prognostication for us next year with a +/- of 5.  I know that's a lot of leeway, but there's no telling what happens along the way...


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#63 Mason Khamvilay

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Posted 12 May 2013 - 03:06 AM

I agree that Millsap will maintain his numbers more than Love. I don't expect Love to put up 24 and 12 on the Rockets, but I don't expect him to put up only 18 and 8 either, I think it will be somewhere in the middle. 


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#64 RollingWave

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    Posted 12 May 2013 - 03:27 PM

    Yes, I agree, we were very fortunate with injuries and we can't be too optimistic because things don't always go the way we plan it.

     

    Question: I don't know much about how win shares work, but Millsap has a win share of 7.6, does that mean Millsap would theoretically add 7.6 wins if he replaced an average power forward? This is assuming he would be a perfect fit with no redundant overlaps. Not sure if you know either but I just thought I would ask, can win shares be used that way?

    It means it would add 7.6 win if we got 0 out of our PF , but we didn't, as TJG noted , our combined PF got aorund 5-6 WS , though it should be noted that Milsap obviously won't play every minute of the game, so backup PFs could still get a lot of Winshare anyway. Greg Smith and Patrick Beverly got plenty of WS this year. for example.

     

    It is not a perfect stat as noted that it's metric take a lot of team performane into account, however, in the NBA, there aren't that many things in a vacuum anyway. outside of many free throws, this is the difficult part when doing basketball stats vs baseball stats, since in baseball, almost everything can be seperated into individual events that have little to do with other players, but in basketball? not really, your 3p % can easily be effected by if your team is setting good screens or getting you open looks, your rebounding can easily be altered by how the team plays and if you have better / worse players reboudning around you.  your assist can easily be influenced by if your teamates are running well off the ball and/or finishing properly etc.. so basic stats in itself is already flawed,  Win Share try to take this into account to an extend I think ,   see it as an more elaborate way of doing +/- 

     

    Some guys still suck in Winshare on great team (see Norris Cole) some guys are do really well on bad teams (see Chris Paul on bad Hornet teams.) so it's not entirly on the team either.

     

    It's a good way to get a feel for players, but certainly basketball stats always need to be taken with a grain of salt.


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    #65 thejohnnygold

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    Posted 12 May 2013 - 04:35 PM

    I will say this--I think Greg Smith is poised to make big strides by the start of next season.  He's got great physical tools.  He has shown flashes on both sides of the ball.  I think a Summer of processing his successes and failures while working with the coaches and the team will allow him to come back and be a force for Houston--not a star-level force, but someone that will repeatedly make the opposition regret paying too much attention to the guards on offense.  I also think he will fix his mental lapses on defense becoming a solid one on one, help defender, rebounder and shot blocker.

     

    He is actually a lot like Dwight Howard.  Their bodies are similar in size (although Dwight's vertical is far superior).  Smith actually possesses a much softer touch around the rim and I fully expect his post game to show improvement--plus, I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up next year with a nice baseline jumper.  Smith isn't going to average 3 blocks a game, but he can definitely force opponents to alter their shots.  As much as I know signing Dwight is a no-brainer, part of me hopes it falls through so that we can watch Smith blossom--He's got solid contributor written all over him...it's just a matter of whether that will manifest next season or if it's still a couple of years off.

     

    Sorry, I know it's off-topic (not that we weren't already), but the last post made me think about it.


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    #66 Steven

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      Posted 12 May 2013 - 08:35 PM

      I will say this--I think Greg Smith is poised to make big strides by the start of next season. He's got great physical tools. He has shown flashes on both sides of the ball. I think a Summer of processing his successes and failures while working with the coaches and the team will allow him to come back and be a force for Houston--not a star-level force, but someone that will repeatedly make the opposition regret paying too much attention to the guards on offense. I also think he will fix his mental lapses on defense becoming a solid one on one, help defender, rebounder and shot blocker.

      He is actually a lot like Dwight Howard. Their bodies are similar in size (although Dwight's vertical is far superior). Smith actually possesses a much softer touch around the rim and I fully expect his post game to show improvement--plus, I wouldn't be surprised if he shows up next year with a nice baseline jumper. Smith isn't going to average 3 blocks a game, but he can definitely force opponents to alter their shots. As much as I know signing Dwight is a no-brainer, part of me hopes it falls through so that we can watch Smith blossom--He's got solid contributor written all over him...it's just a matter of whether that will manifest next season or if it's still a couple of years off.

      Sorry, I know it's off-topic (not that we weren't already), but the last post made me think about it.


      Greg Smith, IMHO, is a C and on this team that makes him a backup. He isn't athletic enough to play PF in this league, and doesn't have the moxy/ experience to play like Z-Bo or Duncan (non-athletic 4s).

      The 4 I see having a big improvement for next year is Terrance Jones. He is athletic enough to guard the stretch 4s in the league, and is big enough to pound with the big 4s. His last 10 games were much needed for this team. If he can improve his jumper then he provides the spacing on the court the guards need.
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      #67 Cooper

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        Posted 12 May 2013 - 10:14 PM

        An idea if we do add a powerforward, love,smith or whoever.Terrance Ross is in the block in Toronto for a powerforward send them Dmo and delfino or something for him might get it done.
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        #68 RollingWave

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          Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:30 AM

          The most interesting type of player to compare to Smith would be Tyson Chandler IMHO, a guy that can really finish inside , the problem with him this year is mainly that his defense is ehhhh,  though I think this part is generally fixable to a great extend.  

           

          I'm not sure if he can develop into a starter, but he sure look like at least a extremely good backup big.

           

          I'm not sure on Jones and how other PF develop, it could go either way, we're high on Jones mostly because he was peaking around the end, but if you look at the whole season, the 3 best Dmo game is basically the same thing as the 3 best Jones game, (and neither really have more than 3-4 good games.)  I have a feeling that if Jones had a larger sample we probably see him exposed more as well. 

           

          They're very different players, I could see the good case of either being a solid starter, but also cases where neither is really anything useful. For example, Dmo's upside would be like a Dirk lite, but he could easily be a Andre Bargani too (although he won't be allowed to kill the team for nearly as long if that happens..)


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          #69 Mason Khamvilay

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          Posted 13 May 2013 - 05:55 AM

          You guys seem really optimistic about Greg Smith's future, I don't know how I feel about that. 

           

          I think the 5 spot is the most important position to have a good defender.  He's a Tyson Chandler caliber guy offensively, but defensively he's a slow 4 trying to play the 5 and I would much prefer a true 5. Does he have the potential to be a good defender at the 5? Maybe, but he has a very long way to go.  


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          #70 RollingWave

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            Posted 13 May 2013 - 09:35 AM

            On Smith, I think again one has to look at the whole picture and not get over taken by the context of the last stretch of the season. if we use "3 best game" type of test I had on Jones vs Dmo, then Smith wins easily, big time, and not even close. I agree that from the 5 you want defense first, but let's be real here , big mans are a limited asset in the NBA, there were guys starting who probably sucked just as much if not more on D than Smith, and if that's the case, then you take the best player first, and Smith's offensive game certainly give him a big edge over your generic Cole Aldrich of the world.

            Win Share totally love Smith, seeing him as one of the best reserve big in the league this year. with a WS/48 that suggest he should start. (i think it's the 2nd or 3rd highest on the team. though WS/48 does tend to be overly favorable towards good reserves. versus average starters.) RSPM was less high on him but still see him as pretty solid. ( he was either 5th or 6th on the team in RSPM.) . given that he's signed for peanuts, that's pretty great. that he might even have a chance to get better is gravy.)
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            #71 Mason Khamvilay

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            Posted 13 May 2013 - 02:43 PM

            He's great if you consider that we're practically paying him peanuts, no arguments there. And I agree true centers who defend and rebound well are far and few between. Those are only reasons to be content with Greg Smith though, and only for the time being, like an under-privileged teenager should be content with the first car his parents buy him. 

             

            Call me crazy, but I think even Terrence Jones is a better back-up 5 than Greg Smith is. I say we keep Greg Smith around as the third string center until his contract ends, and he would be the best third string 5 in the league, but I don't see him as someone who is a key rotation player on a championship team unless he drastically improves his defense.


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            #72 RollingWave

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              Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:17 PM

              again, I'm not ready to be sold on Jones based on a couple games at the end of the season, I hope he proves otherwise of course, and there are facades to really like about his game, but at the end of the day, it's hard to not like this.

               

               

              because you know what Dwight Howard shot in the paint in his last great season?  63.5% , guys finishing at that rate isn't very common at all. I was actually a bit surprised that they don't try to run pick and rolls with Smith as the roll guy with that sort of ratio.


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              #73 thejohnnygold

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              Posted 13 May 2013 - 03:52 PM

              There are definitely lots of ways to look at this.

               

              First, we must remember that this year was basically his first as a "full-time" pro.  So, comparing him to Tim Duncan and Zach Randolph regarding maturity and experience is like comparing my bank account to Donald Trump's.  It's just not fair.  To me, Smith still has "puppy" syndrome--he doesn't realize that he is bigger and stronger than most of the players he is going to face--at least, at the 4.  I think the coaching staff is going to give him a healthy dose of confidence this Summer and see if he can't take that and turn it into stronger play.

               

              On defense, I think he has the ability to be a strong defender--Nothing flashy like Ibaka and not the headiness of Gasol--but solid nonetheless.  Again, once he is finished with the deer in the headlights stuff and the game slows down for him a little bit I expect him to maintain good defensive positions and rotations--pair that with his size and wingspan (7' 3") and he should have no trouble playing solid NBA defense.

               

              Back to offense...he is quick for his size and opposing teams have already shown a reluctance to get in his way once he's got the ball with a head of steam going to the rim.  I think some film study this Summer (for him and the guards) will increase the efficiency of the pick n roll as each will gain a better understanding of where to be to get the ball and when to deliver it--all that subtle nuance stuff.  In this regard he can be as devastating as Blake Griffin without the Kia commercials.  In post up situations, my memory recalls pretty good footwork and the ability to get his shots off.  Most of the ones he missed came up short which is something he will adjust as he gets used to the strength of NBA defenders.  His shots have arc and aren't awkward, line-drive chucks at the rim with fingers crossed (you can see this shot watching Omer and Dwight).  Once Smith calibrates that touch a lot of those shots are going to fall in.

               

              Here is a quote from an interview (you can find it on the above link) with Greg Smith last January:

               

              "JT: Do you feel you still have more room to grow athletically? Is that something the Rockets' staff emphasizes with you?


              GS: I believe so. They tell me a lot. I'm not even done growing,
              that's the crazy part about it. They know that my body's still maturing
              to grow up, and that my muscles are still coming and my shoulders are
              getting wider. And I'm losing a lot of fat and gaining more muscle, so
              I'm getting stronger, and it's helping a lot.
              "

               

              If this kid gets a little taller, and those shoulders broaden, and he adds more muscle--well, wouldn't he look just like Dwight Howard?  Yikes!  His vert will increase, his speed will increase, his awesomeness will increase.....

               

              My vote is to keep him, let his body finish developing while getting tutored by McHale.  Worst case: he is a big body that can crash the boards and finish at the rim.  Best case: He is a bigger body that dominates the boards, posterizes players every game, and has smooth, yet powerful, post moves to round it all out.

               

              Check out his offensive stats from mysynergysports.com


              greg%20smith.JPG

               

              Let those numbers soak in.  Then remember how many silly turnovers there were (most of which will go away with experience)....think about Lin and Harden improving their passes to him.....think about him being bigger, stronger, and more confident.....The guy has the potential to be a nightmare in the paint....which leads me to the rest of the PF's...

               

              I like them too.  They have skills Smith doesn't.  However, none of them can do what Smith can do.  With Asik setting high screens and Smith coming back door I think the Rockets can get a lot of easy buckets.

               

              I say Smith is better next year and then I think it clicks for him near the end of the season or the year after....We've got a potential stud on our hands and he just needs a little fine tuning and time to realize he not only can compete at this level, but can dominate.

               

              This is what teams are going to have to do next year to try and stop him...

              greg-smith-rockets.jpg


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              #74 Mason Khamvilay

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              Posted 13 May 2013 - 06:54 PM

              Oh I like him alot on the offensive end, I was already aware of those synergy numbers which are reflective of his high TS%. When it comes to finishing off cuts and pick n rolls he is elite. I can see what you're saying about how he has the potential to do some of the things Dwight and Blake do in terms of finishing, and getting deep position with his strength where he can power move his way to an easy two points, but mentioning Greg Smith in the same sentence as those two guys just seems wrong to me. There is so much more to their games than power moves and finishing, Griffin has very skilled handles and passing ability, and like you said Dwight is more athletic. 

               

              Defensively Greg's short comings don't really come from size, length, or athleticism, but rather the mental aspect of his game. I think he's often late, often a couple of steps away from being in the right place at the right time. He doesn't do a great job of jumping straight up so he fouls alot. Broader shoulders and a lower body fat percentage aren't going to fix these things. He's extremely physical and aggressive for someone who's practically a rookie, so I don't think he has a "puppy syndrome", he's just not a smart defender. He's still young so maybe he'll get it, but then again maybe he won't. The jury is still out imo. 

               

              Terrence Jones on the other hand may not have played many games but he has already shown great defensive instincts and intelligence, he is very quick to get in good position on help defense, he is absolutely fantastic at jumping straight up from a standstill to contest shots with elite timing, very strong and understands the angles of how to use that strength, 7'2.25 wingspan. I might not be judging off the biggest sample size here, but I think I've seen enough to know that Jones is the better defender which is very important if at the 5 spot. 


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              #75 thejohnnygold

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              Posted 13 May 2013 - 09:25 PM

              I certainly won't argue Jones's defensive instincts--those are obvious.  In my mind he is smaller than Smith, but it isn't really the case.  I should say, that my preference is to keep them both and use them as a great change of pace at PF or C.  (although, I'd rather get a true back-up center if we can).

               

              On the puppy syndrome--I agree that he does go strong to the hoop and rebounds aggressively already--I also think he can do so much more.  I'm envisioning the way A'Mare used to come down the lane and Nash would get him a pass and then watch out...players just stopped even trying to block him once he got the ball near the hoop.  This is the future I see for Smith. (well, that I hope to see).

               

              Regarding Smith's defense, I mentioned that I think he will get coached up this Summer and fix a lot of those problems.  He doesn't need to be an elite defender--just a solid one.  Combine that with his off-the-charts finishing abilities and what's not to like? (Besides three point shooting--I know you love that ;) )

               

              My stance is Smith is worth keeping regardless--He will either be a great back-up...or possibly a great pick n roll partner for our guards who can get his own shots in the post at times.  It's true, he doesn't have Griffin's dribbling skill--not even close--but I do think he can develop a reliable 12-15 ft. jumper to keep defenders honest and punish them for leaving him open.

               

              It's tough, but right now I'd say D-Mo and T-Rob are the odd men out....of course, I'm sure that will change once Summer League starts :)


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              #76 rockets best fan

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              Posted 14 May 2013 - 12:31 AM

              @thejohnnygold

              I agree with all, but your last statement. I think the rockets are still high on d-mo and t-rob. both have a higher ceiling than smith. remember smith had the advantage of a year in the system and knowing what the coaches were looking for that the other's didn't. I think the rockets will only move a PF in the summer if that stands between them and signing D-12 or some team falls off the rocker like the kings did with t-rob and allow the rockets to acquire a star via said trade. outside of that I expect the rockets to continue to allow the four PF's to fight it out for PT next season and then trade the ones who get beat out in the process. I agree jones is out front. but it's still to early to predict a clear cut winner.


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              you can only warn a man that the bridge is out.....if he keeps driving he's on his own B)


              #77 Mason Khamvilay

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              Posted 14 May 2013 - 04:46 AM

              I agree with RBF that D-Mo and T-Rob have a higher ceiling than Greg Smith. 


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              #78 RollingWave

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                Posted 14 May 2013 - 10:28 AM

                yeah, but Smith have a much higher probability of reaching said ceiling, and that ceiling would still make him a very solid player. where as Dmo and T-Rob could go anywhere between star caliber(ish) to nothing, but of course, we really don't know, Smith was buried in the D League last year as well. I would love to see how these young player (pretty much the whole team really, even the starters this year) would look next year.


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                #79 thejohnnygold

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                Posted 14 May 2013 - 03:51 PM

                Yeah, it's all conjecture.  I think I favor Smith some because I like having a guy like that on the team.  He is easy money on offense (presuming the guards can get him the ball in the right places) and I think can become a solid defender.

                 

                Some guys can finish around the rim and some can't--with Smith, he either finishes or gets fouled the vast majority of the time.  I want that on the team--even if it is as a sub behind Jones or D-Mo.  T-Rob has great physical tools and instincts, but is very unpolished.  I'm not sure we can wait for him to develop fully....he looks like trade bait.


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                #80 Mason Khamvilay

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                Posted 14 May 2013 - 04:49 PM

                We will need to pay him more than peanuts eventually, and if he does become a solid defender it won't be cheap.  


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