165 replies to this topic

[Mason Khamvilay]

I'm not surprised, Mbah Moute has been one of the most underrated defenders in the league for several years now. 

[thejohnnygold]

Anyone looking at the Clippers-Grizz series might want to take a gander at this Sportsbooks' website

 

Looking at Clip's home vs. road scoring and they sport one of the bigger drop-offs when on the road at -6 points per game.  Memphis, on the other hand plays the same home or road.  Watch out Mr. Paul...

 

Indiana has the same home/away spread as the Clips which might allow Atlanta to think they have a chance...

[Sir Thursday]

So everyone and their dog already has the Heat pencilled in to the finals spot in the East. And I get it - they won 66 games on the year and had that awesome winning streak, they look good. But I'm not so sure - I think the Pacers can beat them. And this may be that I peversely kind of enjoy watching these guys play and overrating them because of it, but I think they pose a matchup problem for the Heat. To get my prediction in early (because I'm anticipating a Pacers - Heat conference finals and I want to say this before they send New York home with their tails between their legs), here are the reasons why I think this will happen:

 

• Miami has nobody who can guard Hibbert. He's got a huge height and size advantage over Bosh and Anderson, and there aren't really any other post defenders who are going to see significant minutes against him (Joel Anthony?). Early in the year the Pacers struggled because Hibbert was not able to hit his shots offensively due to a wrist injury. But now he's back to full capabilities he has those nice hook shots that are pretty much impossible to guard if he's hitting them.
• The Pacers boast the league's best defense, and are packed full of enough long and athletic defensive types that they should be able to defend Wade and LeBron as well as anyone in the league. I'm thinking particularly of George Hill and Paul George here, but almost nobody playing big minutes on that team is a minus defender.
• Attitude-wise the Pacers have a snarling, fear-nobody approach that means they shouldn't be overawed by the occasion. There's extra fuel for them to work with given that they lost against the Heat last year. This team plays with an edge, and are not afraid to junk up the game in a manner that will be detrimental to the Heat.
• Paul George is a tough cover because he doesn't do things that make him easy to disrupt. With someone who needs the ball in their hands, you can send someone to double team them. But George tends to make his moves quickly off the catch and with a minimum of intervening dribbles, making that difficult to do.
• The Heat will kill you if you leave their shooters open as part of your defensive scheme. Allen and Battier both thrive off the attention they don't receive because of how difficult LeBron and Wade are to guard. But the Pacers are the best team in the league at closing out on three point shooters (particularly Gerald Green - every time I watch these guys play he seems to have at least one time where he blocks a three point attempt by an unsuspecting shooter just by jumping really high on the close out). Opposing teams shoot just 32.1% from behind the arc against them - you either take a contested three pointer or you step in and shoot the inefficient long two. They will make it difficult for those killer three balls to fall.

My opinion is that the success of New York has meant that the majority of the national media has just forgotten about Indiana completely (I was listening to Simmons and Lowe discussing the playoffs and Lowe had to remind Simmons of the Pacers existence). We've been pining after a good defense for the whole year...well we could learn a thing or two from these guys. I realise the Hawks-Pacers series is not for everyone, but I for one will be tuning in with relish.

 

What does everyone else think?

 

ST

[Mason Khamvilay]

Pacers have the best chance to beat the Heat, they match up better than the Thunder do, but it's not going to be enough. The Pacers have improved, but so have the Heat.

[thejohnnygold]

I think you are right on and I am looking forward to this series.  Hibbert is a huge problem for Miami and I think the referees will have an impact on this series based on how they call the contact around the rim.  Surely Miami recognizes the mismatch and will try to get him in foul trouble early and often.  If the refs "let them play" then Miami is in trouble.  However, if Lebron and Wade get the "star" treatment then Indiana will have a tougher task as they don't have any other match-ups that I think they can win outright.  I will also say that Lance Stephenson has been playing great on both ends and may be able to take Wade out of his comfort zone.

[Steven]

Pacers can't score. They aren't beating the heat without Danny Granger v

[Sir Thursday]

Pacers can't score. They aren't beating the heat without Danny Granger v

 

That's an outdated stereotype based on the first month or so of the season and is no longer true.

 

Back at the beginning of the year, Hibbert was struggling with injury and Paul George hadn't figured out how to adjust to his expanded role without Granger around. But if you look at their stats since the New Year, their Offensive Rating is 103, which while not quite at the level of the top teams, is solidly in the 10-15 range in terms of rank league-wide (I struggled for a while to try to find an exact number for where they rank exactly, but failed. I'm sure I remember a website that would calculate a team's stats and league rank for a given time period but can't for the life of me remember what it was...anyone care to refresh my memory?). They can score just fine, especially given how stifling their defense is.

 

ST

[Steven]

Ok when the Heat average drubbing of them is by double digits. You would have heard it hear first.

[Mario Peña]

Just watching the Clips and Griz game and notice how the depth of the Grizzlies lacks enough quality rotation players just so that their starters can get rest to match the game intensity. The Clippers are so deep with quality players that there is little to no drop off when the second unit is in for DelNegro and the assault of athleticism and physical play just seems to wear on the Grizzlies as time wears on.

[Mario Peña]

Of course right after my post above the Grizzlies pull away and Randolph manages to get through the half with just one foul.

[Mason Khamvilay]

A good bench is probably the most overrated requisite of a good playoff team imo, especially if your starters can play 40+ minutes--something that is made easier to do in a slow pace.

 

And for whatever it's worth, I thought Daryl Arthur was the most underrated 6th man in the league before his injury, and I think Bayless is also underrated.

[Mario Peña]

No I completely agree. There is generally no need for a bench in the playoffs and of course you shorten your rotation and all that but I think the Clippers are the exception to the rule. No accepted rule applies 100% of the time.

I can't believe the Bulls are up. Thibodeux is one bad man.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I agree, I don't know how the Bulls are doing it. They're just so tough and gritty.

 

Speaking of one bad man, I think Brook Lopez has quietly exploded into the top 5 center conversation.

[Mario Peña]

I was wrong about this game though the Grizzlies have been dictating the pace and have neutralized Paul.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I just read over my post and noticed something: "quietly exploded" doesn't sound right does it?

[Mario Peña]

You're good, it's an oxymoron.

[RollingWave]

Hey look , a bad Chris Paul game, maybe they should trade him and seriously  consider if Bledsoe is a better option (sarcasm)

 

it should be noted though that Paul has done worse in the playoffs than in the regular season in general, though this year 's first 2 game certainly look like he was snapping that trend. then this game happened. (granted it's not over yet.)

[Mario Peña]

No matter which way it goes it is just one game. And what Paul brings to an organization cannot be measured with any kind of statistic, come on it's the playoffs.

[Mason Khamvilay]

Yeah, I was going to say "quietly emerged" but "quietly exploded" sounds more deadly--like chemical warefare 

[miketheodio]

Wow the nets bulls game was insane.