43 replies to this topic

[Richards]

For stats watchers, check Lin's FG%, AST, and STL for last night, he was better than most.

McHale never pull Parsons and Harden when they play bad. For Lin, a bad shot or a bad TO and he was out.

 

Coach can start Bev if he wish. But he must be consistent with the way he is treating players, especially LIn.

[Richards]

As we all knew, Lin fanartics has been hitting the "McHale hate/distrust/mis-use Lin" drum for some time.

Within last two weeks, three well known and respected sport sites including this (Red94) openly wonder McHale's logic to bench Lin.

 

I don't buy "hate" logic. All I can think of is McHale was given what he doesn't want. I also think that McHale had little or less input when is come to players trade. I admit that I don't know the fact. My thoughts are just based on McHale's comments.

 

 Morey has very keen eyes than most. I wonder what he was thinking now!

[Mason Khamvilay]

Beverley has a better PER and TS%, that means he's more productive and he's more efficient. He turns the ball over less resulting in less fast break opportunities for the other team. Even though he's a rookie, he has alot of experience in Europe where he won the Eurocup's MVP award in 2012. Add all that to the fact he's a better on-ball defender who applies full court pressure and brings relentless non-stop energy every night, it's really not that hard to understand why McHale likes him.

[RollingWave]

I guess the rational is that because Lin overlaps with Harden too much in terms of skill sets, so when the two of them together isn't working and your going to choose between one of them, then you'd usually go with Harden and start adjusting from there. but yeah, Harden was getting killed yesterday as much (and probably more so) than Lin. and perhaps more importantly the team completely fell into the Pacer's pace (pun!) 

 

There's been a lot of cry on wanting McHale to at least try to stack the Lin / Harden minutes somewhat, right now Lin is almost never on the floor when Harden's not, which seems  like a baffling way of doing things. because then your either running Harden into the ground or leaving a 2nd unit out there with no play maker at all.

 

I can see some of the general logic, but the execution isn't exactly great. you'd figure a Lin / Smith PnR combo especially against opposing 2nd team should be down right electric. why not try to play that out more?

 

To Lin's credit, he's done a lot to try to adjust to playing off the ball with Harden, his 3p% per month is shockingly good in terms of progress. as he's clearly trying to become a much better catch and shoot guy. But it's still a struggle, but then again, as other pointed out, Durant / Westbrook and even Lebron / Wade still took more than 1 season to figure it out.

. 

I think McHale on a marco level has done epic things with this team, but yeah, on a detail level there are still plenty left to be desired. But it's just a microcosmo of the things he needs to think through, D-Mo has been horrifically bad last few games, Parsons cooled off and generally speaking we have no one that can remotely take his spot in most cases which means his minutes is also insane, Harden's defense is sometimes decent but often breaks down badly, Omer Asik's finish (or lack their of) is probably giving him a heart attack at times.

 

To everyone's credit though, at least no one's calling out other guys on the team . but yeah, I'd hope to see the team try and stack the minutes a bit better between Harden / Lin / Parsons. though in Parson's case that might need them to find someone who's faster than Delfino. which the current roster lack, the closest we had was probably Marcus Morris.

[RollingWave]

Beverley has a better PER and TS%, that means he's more productive and he's more efficient. He turns the ball over less resulting in less fast break opportunities for the other team. Even though he's a rookie, he has alot of experience in Europe where he won the Eurocup's MVP award in 2012. Add all that to the fact he's a better on-ball defender who applies full court pressure and brings relentless non-stop energy every night, it's really not that hard to understand why McHale likes him.

 

This is a somewhat flawed way to look at it though, as much as I love stats. you do realize that James Anderson and Greg Smith have better TS% / PER  / WS/48 than Beverly (and the 3 have better than all the non-Harden Starters, in fact, Anderson / Smith actually top Harden in some of those stats ).   But no one's arguing for Greg Smith over Omer Asik. why? because everyone obviously knows that the 6'10 Smith is probably going to get killed by most starting center in the league.  (though one does wonder why Anderson isn't seeing more time.)

 

Basketball stats is more complicated than baseball once, you can't just put the line out there and expect that can be reproduced no matter that situation .

[Mason Khamvilay]

It's only a flawed way to look at things if you're ignoring intangibles (for example defense is an intangible outside of blocks and steals), however I'm well aware of Lin and Beverley's intangibles and I see no reason to think Lin's intangibles outweigh Beverley's--if anything it's the other way around.  

 

As for Greg Smith, if you're asking me why he doesn't start over Asik despite the fact he's far better statistically, let me remind you that Asik is a far better defender--that's something you can't say about Lin in comparison to Beverley.

 

Everyone knows that statistics have flaws, but scouts still use them in their scouting report. Do you know why? Because they don't use them out of context, and neither did I. 

[Heredia]

Bill and Matt said Anderson has been killing it in progress and he got maybe 5 minutes. He did good too, plus I'd rather have him play than Delfino. He's not selfish, and plays defense. 

[Mason Khamvilay]

Anderson really should be given more of a chance, he does play defense like you said. I'm sure his PER and TS% is inflated because we're looking at a small sample, plus he's not great at creating his own shot (although neither is Delfino) so it's not like we can ask him to shoot 20 times a game and still be that efficient. I just want to see him be given a chance though. 

[RollingWave]

It's only a flawed way to look at things if you're ignoring intangibles (for example defense is an intangible outside of blocks and steals), however I'm well aware of Lin and Beverley's intangibles and I see no reason to think Lin's intangibles outweigh Beverley's--if anything it's the other way around.

As for Greg Smith, if you're asking me why he doesn't start over Asik despite the fact he's far better statistically, let me remind you that Asik is a far better defender--that's something you can't say about Lin in comparison to Beverley.

Everyone knows that statistics have flaws, but scouts still use them in their scouting report. Do you know why? Because they don't use them out of context, and neither did I.

The deeper flaw is that your basing this on a very small sample, of him mostly matching up against opponent B teams. if there is anything that baseball stats and basketball stats have in common, it's that sample size is very important. If this Beverly's current ability can hold in bigger volume , he's Ray freaking Allen (aka career 3p shooter over .400) , that seems rather unlikely.

We know that Beverly's game is different from Lin's he doesn't take nearly as many shots. per 36 min scoring he's consistently 2 to 5 points lower than Lin. mostly due to him taking much less shots and see less USG%. he's also drawing less fouls and fouling more (A lot more) per 36 min.

The question is, are the shots Beverly not taking really going into better plays? right now, the answer seem to be yes, but how much of that is matchup remains to be seen.

I would say that Beveley's style make more sense with Harden though. You'd figure should they try to stack Harden Bev with Lin / Anderson more.

Edited by RollingWave, 29 March 2013 - 04:04 AM.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I don't know what Beverley's +/- is in comparison to Lin's, but I feel like the Rockets play better with Beverley just based off what I've seen. I wouldn't mind if McHale experimented with bringing Lin off the bench, I wouldn't be surprised if we look more fired up in first quarters if Beverley was starting. 

[Mason Khamvilay]

The deeper flaw is that your basing this on a very small sample, of him mostly matching up against opponent B teams. if there is anything that baseball stats and basketball stats have in common, it's that sample size is very important. If this Beverly's current ability can hold in bigger volume , he's Ray freaking Allen (aka career 3p shooter over .400) , that seems rather unlikely.

We know that Beverly's game is different from Lin's he doesn't take nearly as many shots. per 36 min scoring he's consistently 2 to 5 points lower than Lin. mostly due to him taking much less shots and see less USG%. he's also drawing less fouls and fouling more (A lot more) per 36 min.

The question is, are the shots Beverly not taking really going into better plays? right now, the answer seem to be yes, but how much of that is matchup remains to be seen.

I would say that Beveley's style make more sense with Harden though. You'd figure should they try to stack Harden Bev with Lin / Anderson more.

Small sample or not, neither of them are proven. At the beginning Lin practically got his starting job by default (Toney Douglas is horrible offensively), but now there's actually someone to battle him for minutes and quite frankly I think Lin is losing that battle. 

[phaketrash]

I have to agree on the sample size issue. For the season, Bev started hot, then had a few bad games, then had a few good ones recently (also see primacy and recency effects haha). Lin has had stretches of good games longer than Bev's, but also stretches of bad games longer. I can understand certain situations when McHale puts Bev in over Lin -- 4th quarter vs. Spurs, I expected that. But other times, even when Lin is doing adequate or better than Bev, he'd rather go with the latter. I think this perplexes Rockets fans because Lin is the starter and most believe he should be given that respect; plus he's paid to play those minutes (in a sense). Lin is also good at certain things that Bev can't do as effectively (a la certain things Lin overlaps w/ Harden on). 

[Mason Khamvilay]

How many times has McHale chosen Beverley over Lin when Lin plays better? I've watched every Rockets game and I think that has happened arguably once, and that was probably because we needed to stop dribble penetration which is something Beverley does better. Lin's not a bad defender, he's a very good help defender for a pg, but Beverley clearly applies more pressure on the ball. 

[Heredia]

Yea, I just want to see Anderson given the opportunity. I feel like he would excel.

[datruth]

we can all disagree to agree, but I have seen guys have a +10 while on the floor and they was 0-8 from he floor. With no rebounds and no assists. So the plus and minus ratio is a team thing not individual thing. So we need to be careful when were  trying to judge players individual performance by what everyone is doing on the floor. Back to bev and lin.  I like bev and he plays hard, but Bev is not a playmaker.  Not sayin Lin is, but he gives us the best chance to win nightly. Last week their was a game that Lin shot about 70%, but barely played 30 minutes. The next game after helping his team win a must win game against the jazz the kid played 20 minutes. Where was the love for the kid. he just had 3 straight games of 20 or more points and everything seemed to be turning around for the kid. Then he plays 20, 27 and 20 minutes the next three games.  I know someone is going to say he shot poorly, but he shot great and only played 30 minutes. Then others players shoot poorly and play 40 minutes almost double the minutes lin playing. Again , this is only my view, maybe my eyes are deceiving me.

[Mason Khamvilay]

I agree that Bev isn't a playmaker and that's my biggest gripe on him too, but with Harden I don't think we need a playmaker. For example Mario Chalmers isn't a playmaker, Steve Kerr and Ron Harper weren't play makers, Derek Fisher wasn't a play maker. History has proven time and time again that if you have a superstar who can score and and be a playmaker, a traditinoal pg is not necessary.

[RollingWave]

how much of that perception is real though? Lin started the season really really bad probably due him still recovering from injury, if we take a look at their # since the start of February, the results might surprise you.

 

Lin: 30 Minute per game, .574 TS, 17.9% TOV 31.5% assist

 

Bev: 18.8 Minute per game .565 TS, 17.3% TOV 23.9% assist

 

Bev does show considerably better result when he's on the floor during that span though, his Offensive rating minus defensive rating during that time is +13 while Lin's only +2, so the question is, how much of that is matchup and how much of it is legit skill?

 

I do think that at least right now, Bev tend to mix better with Harden as there is less conflict of skill set and his more aggressive D (part of it is his willingness to foul though. he average more than 4 foul per 36 min, you can't do that with starter min or your going to foul out a lot.) helps out Hardens often suspect D better. but again, how much of this is sustainable if he's playing 30 instead of 15-20 min?

 

In the end,  I don't see McHale's decision really as much as hating Lin as I suspect it's him giving Harden too much of a leash and things unfold base on that.  I see Bev as a legitimately great backup and his peak is clearly better than Lin's valley, but find claim of him being able to do the same as a starter questionable at best.

[kevingan]

Patrick Beverly has wonderful skills on defense, and he can also score, obviously; but I think that Lin brings an extra quality to the team and the game, namely a temperament that combines often brilliant playmaking and a fierce will to win--unusually fierce, actually, to the extent that I think Lin is going to be a vital piece of a championship team some day.  I watched him emerge with the Knicks--saw every game, I think--and it was his hunger for the ball at the big moments that made an indelible impression.  An ultimate team player, I think, and what he made of those not-very-talented Knicks was quite miraculous.  (Now they have more talent, and so much less heart. Boring and depressing.)

 

Yes, Lin's streaky, especially the way he's being used; but I think his grit will pull him through, and that he will continue to develop into a winning team player: if not here, somewhere.  (I hope here!)  And even with all these ups and downs and McHale's preference for another style in his guards  (he's a post-Cousy Celtic, after all!), he and Harden are still the highest scoring backcourt in the league, and Lin's defense has improved by leaps and bounds.  Again, that improvement shows his great heart and court intelligence, which is how he gets all those steals.

 

No less an expert than Clyde Frazier, asked about the growing pains of the Lin-Harden duo, reminded us that people said he and Monroe wouldn't be able to play together either; even the reference is a great honor.  I hope the Rockets figure out how to use Lin optimally: it's so great to watch thinking players with a team concept, and the Rockets seem to have more than the average NBA team.  That, more even than the uptempo style and the great shooting, is what makes them fun to watch.  Or so it seems to me!

[Richards]

We don't know how well Beverley can play if he was used starter minutes. He played so aggressive and fouled a lot. I wouldn't be surprised he fouled out if he played starter minutes.

[Freebird]

I think everyone has made some valid points here.  It's true that Lin was basically going to be used like Harden is now, methinks - until Harden dropped into our laps.  Suddenly, we have a duplication of skills that don't naturally work well together without significant effort - mostly by the coaching staff, adjusting their game planning to the skills they have to work with.

 

McHale and company seemed to be blessed with abundant talent, but don't always seem to agree on the best way to utilize it all.  As NBA coaches, they seem to be growing and learning, as well.  Albeit a bit more slowly than we, as fans, would like. 

 

Comparing Lin and Bev is somewhat futile.  I think both of their games need work, and both will become much bettter, but they have a different skillset.  Lin has been relegated to a spot up shooter and the occasional driver, but when he does drive, it seems like he does a good job of finishing - either 2 points, a nice kick, or a foul.  Bev is one of those smack defenders - more of a Gary Payton type (he used to roll his head and DARE the opposing guy to do anything!).  I think Bev can be like that, defensively.  Does that make him better suited to start?  Probably not until he gets closer to that point.

 

They are both in their first full season - and that means Lin, Bev, AND McHale.  Let's see what happens after an off-season of working things out in a more relaxed manner - rather than a game-day, on the fly decision.