A few minutes into the scrum, a reporter asks Parsons about Portland’s sweet, soul-crushing big man, LaMarcus Aldridge. With lifeless eyes, Parsons scratches his beard and gives an answer:

…ain’t nobody in the world who can guard him one-on-one right now. You can’t even really knock Terrence, or Omer or Dwight’s defense because they’re playing him tough and contesting everything. There’s nothing much left to do besides just straight up double-teaming him to get the ball out of his hands and make their other guys beat us.

This wasn’t hyperbole. It wasn’t crazy. It wasn’t an excuse. Aldridge is out of this world right now, torturing one fan base while another dances on his shoulders. He has 89 points in 81 playoff minutes, shooting 59.3% from the floor with a 41.6 PER. Nobody has a higher True Shooting percentage or Offensive Rating. Nobody has more Win Shares. His shot chart resembles a well-manicured lawn.

Aldridge is just the third player to score at least 40 points in Games 1 and 2 on the road in NBA playoff history, joining Michael Jordan and Tracy McGrady. Furthermore: Only four other players in NBA history have scored at least 89 points in their first two games of a playoff season: Jordan (112 points in the 1986 playoffs and 105 in the 1988 playoffs), Jerry West (101 in the 1965 playoffs), Elgin Baylor (89 in the 1961 playoffs), and McGrady (89 in the 2003 playoffs). What Aldridge is doing happens about once every 20 years.

Which brings us to the million dollar question. How do the Houston Rockets stop him? Aldridge is a mid-range specialist. His sweet spot gives analytical NBA thinkers a migraine. If Omer Asik or Dwight Howard puts a knee in Aldridge’s behind and nudges him out to 18 feet, then gets a hand in his face to strongly contest an off balance jumper, there’s no shame if the ball goes in. This is good defense. But when this exact sequence happens roughly 19 possessions in a row, it’s time to try something else.

Here’s a look at how the Rockets guarded Aldridge in Game 2, and what they might want to try as the series heads to the Pacific Northwest. Let us first briefly talk about all the good Houston did. Aldridge scored 15 points with Asik guarding him, but shot “only” 53%, per SportVU. Asik bumped Aldridge, kept a hand in his face, and generally did a really good job pre and post-catch. Last night was just one of those times where a professional scorer is doing unforgettable things, and offense cant’ be tamed.

On some plays, it was physically impossible for Asik to play any better without fouling. Like this one below: Asik eclipses Aldridge’s entire body from the picture, but the shot still falls through the rim.

Watch how he makes Aldridge put the ball on the floor, then stays in front to force a difficult runner. It’s tremendous man-to-man defense.

And check out these contests from Howard:

Okay, so that just about sums up all the good stuff. Now onto the not so good. During Game 2, I’m sure millions of viewers were dumbfounded as to why the Rockets didn’t simply double Aldridge on the catch. Well, doubling essentially trades a contested long two for an open three, which isn’t ideal against a team featuring Damian Lillard, Wesley Matthews, Nicolas Batum, and the rest of Portland’s long-range snipers. It’s a really tough strategy to pull off. Kevin McHale demurred after the game about his team’s attempt to switch things up:

Tonight, [Aldridge] was picking and popping and moving and we were having a hard time running people at him because he was on the perimeter most of the time. We were trying to get the ball out of his hands as much as we could but a lot of the stuff he did was pick and pop.

This is mostly true. Aldridge went 6-for-8 as the roll man on pick-and-rolls, per mySynergySports. But Aldridge took 28 shots, leaving 20 attempts unaccounted for. Here are a few instances where Houston had plenty of time to race a second defender over and force a pass.

These were designed post-ups from the mid-range, plain and simple. The Rockets had opportunities to double with a perimeter player (James Harden haphazardly helped off his man about 6000 times during the regular season anyway!), but doing so would require weakside rotations out to the three-point line—something Houston struggled with all year long. If the Rockets continue to play Aldridge straight up in Game 3, it’s because McHale’s worried about getting shot out of the gym.

All that being said, the fact that no second defender rushed over to help out on this play is baffling. Terrence Jones can’t guard Aldridge, and shouldn’t spend another second on him in Game 3.

But not doubling was far from Houston’s biggest problem. They missed rotations, lacked communication, and showed no intensity crashing the glass. Aldridge was WIDE open—as in no Rockets were even in the beginning stages of a close out—on at least three jump shots. There’s no need in making the trip to Portland if this continues.

This is disturbing stuff. But why is it happening? What adjustments can the Rockets make? One of the easiest modifications can go to pick-and-roll defense. Howard and Asik spent most of the year dropping back on pick-and-rolls and playing a one-man zone around the free-throw line. Both are really good at it. But against point guards who can shoot (Lillard), McHale likes his guys to be more aggressive, showing or hedging on the perimeter before scampering back to proper position.

This strategy isn’t working right now. Howard in particular isn’t moving very well, and it’s allowing Lillard to pick Houston apart. Here’s one of Portland’s favorite plays: a Lillard-Aldridge side screen-and-roll, preceded by Matthews coming up to give Howard a little bump on his way to the three-point line.

Houston would love to guard this play with two guys, but Howard’s too slow recovering back to Aldridge. Jones is then supposed to slide across the lane and assume responsibility as a help defender, but he doesn’t realize it until the shot is already on its way to becoming two easy points.

Portland runs the same play moments later (with Batum and Matthews swapping position), and Lillard again easily gets around Howard. This time, Jones is ready and anticipates a pass to Aldridge. Lillard recognizes Houston’s adjustment and calmly rifles a pass to Robin Lopez (Jones’ man), who misses the bunny. Howard flies in for the rebound, but it ends up in Aldridge’s hands for an easy put back.

Overall, Houston defended this play pretty well, but in Game 3, the adjustment needs to come as soon as Lopez releases his shot. All five Rockets need to crash the glass here; defending the three-point line is key, but plays like this one are vital. Houston can’t let Aldridge’s points ever be this easy, so Patrick Beverley, Harden, and Parsons all need to get physical and put a body on someone.

Defensive rebounds fuel Houston’s transition attack. They’re important. But so is Howard’s defense. Here’s the most glaring example.

Look how Lillard eases his way around the big man, gets all the way into the paint, and hits a rolling Aldridge for one of his easiest baskets of the night. Why not try a more conservative strategy and force Portland to attack in a different way?

Here’s another play Portland loves to run. It begins as a hand off/screen on one side of the floor before turning into a pick-and-roll on the other.

Again, Howard extends himself and Aldridge catches the ball wide open in the middle of the floor. Not good. Jones does a good job reading the play and coming out to contest, but Aldridge still ends up with an open shot. The energy Howard exerts doing all that running here is appreciated but unnecessary. Here’s the exact same play a few minutes later.

Notice anything different? Instead of hedging, Howard stays put at the elbow. When Aldridge catches the pass, all Howard has to do is slide across the paint to pick him up. Portland’s spacing is jumbled up on this possession, and it’s no coincidence Aldridge badly misses the shot.

So, to recap: what should Houston do in Game 3? First, Howard and Asik need to guard Aldridge at all times. Harden, Parsons, and Jones have no business wasting even one possession trying to stop something they couldn’t hope to contain in a dream.

(A quick aside before moving on: Don’t be surprised if McHale unleashes Donatas Motiejunas on Aldridge for short spots during Game 3. He’s a seven-footer with length, speed, and athleticism, and he’s actually quite comfortable defending guys in open space. It’s not Plan A, but also couldn’t hurt.)

Second, Houston’s pick-and-roll coverage needs to change. If Howard and Asik continue to show and hedge that’s…fine, but only as long as everyone else supports them with perfect help rotations. Those aren’t likely on a team featuring Harden, Parsons, and Jeremy Lin. Houston should experiment with a little bit of everything on defense, including switching pick-and-rolls (only with Howard, even though he’s been slow of foot lately) and reverting back to the conservative “drop down” approach that helped make this a top-10 defense all year long.

Aldridge is playing out of his mind right now. Some of his shots are truly unstoppable, and those are the ones you live with. But Houston had a hand in making Aldridge’s life look easy through the first two games. They’ll need to execute solid adjustments over the next two contests, or a season that once had hope will meet a certain harsh ending.

Michael Pina covers the NBA for Sports on Earth, ESPN’s TrueHoop Network, FOX Sports, Grantland, Bleacher Report and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina. 

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Pina: Let’s start by gauging Jones’s public perception. In your opinion, is he overrated, underrated, or properly rated?

Rahat: I’d say he might be a little bit overrated.  He’s performed magnificently beyond anyone’s expectations this season, filling the team’s biggest void, and his insertion into the starting lineup may perhaps have been the catalyst for their turnaround. All of that has led many people to project him into a better player in the future than he may ever become.

I think there’s an assumption that due to his production this year, he’ll continue along a similar growth trajectory and blossom into a bonafide fringe-star. I don’t think that’s warranted because in a vacuum he’s a far lesser player than what he’s seemed this year playing next to Dwight Howard. Now, one might say that won’t matter because Dwight will always be around, but I’d counter that a problem lies with the fact that Jones struggles against teams that find a way to limit Howard without too much attention. Jones has to be able to do things on his own or we’re going to keep getting killed by the Thunder and Clippers.

Pina: Television broadcasters look at Jones’s production, and the incredible athleticism he displays on both ends, and think he’ll be an All-Star someday. I believe it’s more a case of Houston maximizing his talent right now, playing a system that suits his skills perfectly. Jones flashes open-court brilliance from time to time, but that stuff is more indicative of a superior athlete than a well-rounded player able to hold his own in a more controlled environment.

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10) Isaiah Canaan: Well, would you look at that! After Patrick Beverley sprained his knee during the second quarter of last night’s game, Isaiah Canaan did some real stuff non-garbage time minutes! Houston extended their lead from about three to double digits at half time, and Canaan’s tenacious play on both ends was partly responsible. He knocked down a contested three-pointer, took a steal the other way for a dunk (that almost didn’t go in), and generally looked like a player who belongs. Fun, fun, fun.

9) Jordan Hamilton: Hamilton barely averaged 11 minutes per game this week, and he shot 25% from the field. Not great.

8) Donatas Motiejunas: Motiejunas moves the ball like a hurried FedEx carrier delivering a package. He keeps Houston’s offense flowing when you pass it to him, which is good. Look:

7) Jeremy Lin: Nice and clean week from Jeremy Lin. Nothing crazy happened, and he put up solid 12, 4, and 4 averages. The shooting percentages weren’t the greatest, but Lin’s continues to take uncontested long twos instead of forced, contested threes, and it’s a smart decision.

6) Patrick Beverley: Before spraining his knee during the second quarter of last night’s demolition of the 76ers, Patrick Beverley had a solid week. Houston’s offense performed like a nuclear powered juggernaut with him on the court, but his outside shot cooled off a bit.

5) Omer Asik: Houston’s offense isn’t good with Omer Asik on the court. This week they averaged a pedestrian 102.7 points per 100 possessions in his 70 minutes. But on the other end? Oh boy. Good. Yes.

Here’s a clip that personifies the little things Asik does on your typical possession. Watch him slide all over the place and snuff out Charlotte’s first two methods of attack.

4) Dwight Howard: Howard looked great in his two games back after sitting a few out with that injured ankle. Last night, he swatted the crap out of Thaddeus Young early on, and I’m pretty sure tears were trickling down Henry Sims’s face midway through the second quarter. Howard ran the floor and soared high above the rim to catch lobs and what not. The competition wasn’t great, but he looked healthy destroying it.

3) Terrence Jones: During last night’s broadcast, Clyde Drexler waxed on and on about Terrence Jones’s All-Star potential. Matt Bullard took it a step further by comparing Jones to Thaddeus Young, and suggesting Houston might have the more majestic stallion today. Everyone. Let’s all take a deep breath, clear our minds, and put all the joyous things Jones does on a basketball court in the proper context. A more fair question might be “could Jones ever have Young’s well-rounded “we need two points, so throw him the ball” skill-set?” When a 21-year-old manufactures consistent production with mind-numbing athleticism, people tend to lose their minds. Jones plays in literally the most compatible environment available. He gets to play beside Dwight Howard, in a super fast offense run by guards who can pass it after sucking in the defensive help. His teammates draw a lot of attention on that end. Fit matters for 99% of the league’s players. Jones was extremely fortunate to land in the situation he did.

That doesn’t make watching him play basketball any less fun, though. On one possession, Jones grabbed a defensive rebound then took off like a windup car. With a live dribble he went behind the back to blow by Michael Carter Williams, then slaughtered Henry Sims with a nasty Euro-step before laying it in with his off hand. It was…incredible. A few minutes later he threw a gorgeous cross-court bounce pass to Lin in transition.

2) Chandler Parsons: Parsons’s week somehow felt quiet for a guy who shot 40% from the three-point line on five attempts per game, and put up averages of 14.3 points, 5.7 assists, and 4.3 rebounds in three outings. His minutes were about on average, too. He barely did anything during the first half against Charlotte, and it’s no surprise Houston struggled to do much of anything offensively because of it.

1) James Harden: Much was written about Harden yesterday, so go check that out if you’d like. He’s on top of the world right now, firing on all cylinders and scoring from wherever he wants, whenever he wants. Putting all biases aside, do you think he deserves a 1st team All-NBA nod?

Michael Pina covers the NBA for ESPN’s TrueHoop Network, Sports On Earth, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina. 

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He’s a one-man stampede in transition, a volcanic eruption waiting to happen whenever isolated on the perimeter, and only two or three guys make scoring points in the NBA look easier. If sandpaper and velvet had a baby, Harden is how that baby would play basketball. His signature step back jumper is so deadly and beautiful, it makes you want to blow air kisses at a complete stranger.

His game is tough and elegant, and combines all the boring elements of an assembly line with the pure adrenaline rush that accompanies gravity-defying dunks, courageous forays into the paint, and pull up transition threes that don’t make a lick of sense until white nylon starts to dance above the rim.

These few paragraphs hardly do justice to Harden’s nightly brilliance as his team’s best offensive player. His post game is underrated and especially effective against smaller guards. His pocket pass makes professional seamstresses cry tears of joy. Watching free-throws can be boring, but Harden apologizes for it by consistently making plays only a select few can. He doesn’t get credit for being one of the most aesthetically hypnotizing players of the past three years, but that’s okay. Credit is overrated. So is being associated with hypnotism.

But all in all is he deserving of a 1st team All-NBA nod? Let’s stack the candidates side by side.

For the two guard spots, we have James Harden, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, John Wall, Goran Dragic, and Stephen Curry duking it out. Tony Parker and Russell Westbrook–last year’s 2nd team All-NBA backcourt—miss the cut due to a variety of maladies, and Damian Lillard and Kyle Lowry deserve appreciation, but not for 1st team All-NBA this year. How about Kyrie Irving? LOL. (For fun, here’s how those other guys match up.)

Paul and Kobe Bryant filled the void last season. Bryant is obviously out of the running, and Paul may not be the best player on his own team anymore. He’ll also end the season having missed roughly 20 games, but could still end up leading the league in assists and steals per game. Paul could easily have one of the first-team spots locked up…again. He’s really good.

Wade’s played nearly 150 fewer minutes than Paul, but his unbelievable efficiency mixed with context (he’s really good, just disinterested in the regular season) puts him on the list. Wall, Dragic, and Curry are all having special years, but comb through the stats above for a few minutes, and from various angles you’ll see that none surpass Harden.

A grand total of 10 players in league HISTORY have averaged as many points per game as Harden currently is while posting a True Shooting percentage as high. Chris Mullin is the only guard. We’re talking about all-time efficiency right now. Harden’s scoring ability isn’t great, it’s freaking delirious. He’s also Houston’s best passer, by a wide mile. Outside of LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and probably Dwight Howard (more on that at some point in the future), how is Harden not a lock for this team?

His case is tighter than a vault, right? Of course Harden should be there! What could possibly hold him back? Now feels like an appropriate time to bring up the other 50% of NBA basketball: defense.

There are legitimately hundreds of examples where Harden’s lackluster defense directly leads to a basket by the other team. Here’s one from a recent win over the Charlotte Bobcats.

Houston’s entire defensive focus shifted to one side of the floor once Charlotte put Josh McRoberts in the post against Patrick Beverley, and it forced Harden to essentially be aware of two players at once: McRoberts and Gerald Henderson. If Chandler Parsons or Dwight Howard slide over to double, Harden would need to cover their guy, either an open Michael Kidd-Gilchrist or Al Jefferson. Neither of his teammates actually moved, though, so Harden comes off looking foolish, and fuel is added to the narrative that he’s sacrilegious to the Basketball Gods whenever the Rockets need a stop.

All this true, but often removed from the proper context. Yes, defense is very important, and players who aren’t good at it are less valuable than those who are. But to what degree does it matter on a Rockets team that allows 0.4 fewer points per 100 possessions with Harden on the floor? It matters that Houston could be even better, yes. And as contenders for a title, that small amount could add up to the difference between a playoff win and a playoff loss.

But to downgrade Harden from “Brilliant Offensive Maestro” to “Titanic Defensive Liability” every other time his name is uttered doesn’t seem right, and in the end it shouldn’t dislodge his place as one of the two best guards in basketball.

The Bobcats scored two points on Henderson’s shot. Harden dropped 37 on 19 shots.

Defense matters, but truth be told, the positive impact a historically efficient high-volume scorer has should outweigh his negative defensive shortcomings. Harden rarely guards the opponent’s best player, and on some possessions his assignment doesn’t even touch the ball. We talk about how significant defense is—earlier in this article it was referred to as “50% of the entire game”—but chastising Harden before acknowledging the scoring and playmaking duties he carries on a nightly basis is unfair and misguided.

Oh, also! Basketball isn’t black and white. Gray areas exist, even within the most specific categorical subset. There are so, so, so many possessions in a season, and in a perfect world each play in every game would get its own detailed transcript. Unfortunately, there isn’t enough time for that.

If someone is slapped with an “awful defender” name tag, they’re rendered as some amorphous blob that lies on the court and gets stomped on throughout the game. Harden makes some pretty egregious errors, but it’s not all bad, and that’s an important thing to remember, just as not all his offense is a decorative tour de force. He makes mistakes with the ball! Sometimes he takes 10 needless dribbles and hoists up a bad shot. Sometimes he plows into a defender who was in position long enough to sign a few autographs before drawing a charge.

This is a bit of a ramble, but the overall point is that every player has good plays and bad plays, and not all possessions be weighed equally in the basin of an 82 game regular season. Harden is not the greatest defender who ever lived. He doesn’t play both ends of the court like several of the all-time two guards we like comparing him to. But calling Harden a designated hitter or one-dimensional threat is like walking in the desert and getting agitated by the lack of snow. If he’s a designated hitter, Harden averages 14 RBI per game on an off night. Right now offense is his thing, and he’s fantastic at it. For the purpose of being a 1st team All-NBA selection, judge him on his strengths while understanding they make his weaknesses so much easier to live with.

Michael Pina covers the NBA for ESPN’s TrueHoop Network, Sports On Earth, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina. 

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Several rumors have popped up over the past few weeks, and it’s only logical to assume a fidgety general manager like Daryl Morey would see an available superstar and do everything in his power to adopt him, but in my opinion Wojnarowski’s report finally allows worthwhile speculation to begin.

A lot can happen over the next few months, but a roadmap attempting today to figure out how Houston can sign Anthony this summer won’t hurt anybody, will it? So many freaking things needs to go one way in order for this to actually happen, but these are the three easiest to write about.

1) New York misses the playoffs

The Knicks are 28-40. If the season ended today they’d be a No.9 seed without a lottery pick—the very worst position for an NBA team to be in. The pesky Atlanta Hawks are up four games with 14 to go, and John Hollinger’s playoff predictions place the odds at a seismic 6% that New York passes them.

Despite Phil Jackson’s influence (a factor that shouldn’t be dismissed) and aside from $$$, why would Anthony stay in New York? The Knicks could either be as bad or worse next season, and they definitely won’t win the title until Amar’e Stoudemire, Andrea Bargnani, and Tyson Chandler come off the books, which probably won’t happen until next summer (Bargnani and Stoudemire have player options next year, but it’s doubtful they douse gasoline on their combined $30+ million and opt out…unless Jackson brainwashes them into thinking it’s a good idea, which is entirely possible).

In essence, Anthony signing a five-year max with New York would be the equivalent of strapping plastic explosive to his prime then pounding it with a sledge hammer. He turns 30 on May 29, and would probably miss the playoffs for a second straight season while playing inside a bubble for an emotionally starved fan base. The city would be miserable. He would be more miserable.

How could making the playoffs this year matter? Well, given the incredibly low odds of it actually happening, qualifying would be miraculous and an inspiration. That’s why. It’d supply irrational hope for the future and substantiate the organization’s positive momentum. If the Knicks make the playoffs, they could argue this entire regular season was a comedy of awful, impossible-to-repeat-themselves-ever-again blunders.

“Chandler, Bargnani, and Stoudemire will be healthy next year!”

“We’ll get even more production from the still-developing Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr.!”

“Think Felton’s washed up? So do we! Let’s trade for a brand new point guard!”

“Sayonara, J.R. Smith!”

“Sayonara, Mike Woodson!”

“Hello, Steve Kerr!”

“Nice to meet you, triangle offense!”

It’s obviously wishful thinking, but nobody knows the future. And when you can throw an extra $30+ million at Anthony, a dot of brightness is all you really need. The Knicks are a capsizing ship that just spent 18 months repeatedly ramming itself into the same iceberg. An incredible playoff push will persuade everyone to look towards the heavens and think happy thoughts about the future…right as the boat cracks in half behind them.

If New York misses the playoffs none of that spin can be spun. Vultures (Houston, Chicago, Boston, Charlotte, the Lakers) will circle a little lower. It’s exactly what happened to L.A. and Dwight Howard. Nobody wants to go through a painful losing season in the prime of their career, especially if it can be avoided. Smart people will tell Anthony he’ll have to experience this all over again for at least one more year if he sticks around, and that pill might be too tough to swallow.

2) The Rockets need to win a playoff series

As an alluring player destination that’s relatively fresh, it’d be a terrible look for Houston to get bounced in the first round. Kevin McHale would be fired—giving rise to the possibility that a less fun system is implemented by a new coach—and most of the team’s pleasant chemistry vibes would shake at the core.

If Houston loses early, and winning a title is truly Anthony’s number one objective (over pride, ego, money, statistics, and his wife’s indefatigable television career), to sway free agency’s breeze towards 4 Pennsylvania Plaza, Jackson would calmly relay the obvious: Good luck getting out of the west, Melo!

Oklahoma City, San Antonio (not going anywhere for at least 20 more years), Golden State, the Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis, Phoenix, Portland, and Dallas are all very good now, and could be much better in the short-term future. (Also, Kevin Love and Anthony Davis are in the conference, and we haven’t even said the word “Lakers” yet.)

Anthony could easily make the Rockets a perennial powerhouse that looks up to zero of those teams, but it’d be a little risky unless he’s willing to take even less money than the four-year max. Those three max deals are a huge cost, and the margins to add complimentary pieces would be difficult though not impossible. Hanging over all this is the Chicago Bulls, who present an intriguing destination in their own right.

3) Houston needs to gut its roster

Yay, financial talk! Pending player options, team options, non-guaranteed contracts, and draft picks, Houston has between $60.9 and $63.2 million on their books next season, when the expected cap number will rise to approximately $61.2 million. Thus, they can’t sign Anthony to a four-year, $95.89 million maximum contract. Can they get low enough?

First, Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik have to go. That’s $16.7 million off the top right there. Then, Greg Smith needs to be renounced, Francisco Garcia would be kidnapped, Omri Casspi gets cut, and Chandler Parsons, Isaiah Canaan, Robert Covington, and Patrick Beverley would all be bought out or have their options declined.

This…still wouldn’t give Houston the necessary $22.8 million worth of necessary space. (They’d be roughly $4.5 million over.) So, unless Anthony is willing to take even less money (LeBron did it!), an outright signing is unlikely.

The more probable option is a sign-and-trade done with New York ONLY AFTER Anthony makes it clear he wants to play in Houston. Notice how complicated all this is? The Rockets could package Lin and Asik along with their 2014 first-round pick then call it a day. Or work in some other pieces like Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas, if that’s what it takes.

Is all this worth the trouble? In short: yes. As the Knicks bumble along as a laughing stock, Anthony is quietly having a brilliant season, posting career-highs in PER and True Shooting percentage. He also leads the league in minutes per game and usage rate while averaging 28 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 3.1 assists. Three-pointers are splashing through the net, his mid-range game is diabolical, and behind Kevin Durant, arguably no better scorer lives on Planet Earth. Acquiring him at any cost short of Howard and Harden is an absolute no-brainer.

But so much about this process is complicated and/or out of Houston’s control, and unless you’re Morey, none of it’s worth losing any sleep over. Instead: sit back, relax, and wait for Carmelo’s future to unfold.

Michael Pina covers the NBA  for ESPN’s TrueHoop Network, Sports On Earth, FOX Sports, Bleacher Report, and The Classical. Find more of his writing here, and follow him @MichaelVPina.

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12/13) Trisaiah Danaan

(Get it?) These two logged some garbage time minutes against the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls, aaaaand that about sums it up.

11) Omri Casspi

Casspi is now a garbage time guy. It’s sad, but necessary.

10) Francisco Garcia 

Looking for a boost (maybe?), Kevin McHale called on Francisco Garcia to light a fire under Houston as they slogged behind Oklahoma City. It actually sort of worked, with the veteran hitting some threes and drawing some anger out of Kevin Durant. That was nice.

But for Garcia to enter last night’s game before Jordan Hamilton didn’t make a ton of sense. In no way is Garcia the better player, and it isn’t the best idea for McHale to reconfigure the rotation after every little hiccup.

9) Omer Asik

Wrote a lot of nice things about Asik yesterday. But all that’s left is basketball death.

8) Jordan Hamilton

So, Hamilton’s minutes have been…interesting. He was huge against Portland, then didn’t really play in the second half against the Thunder. Francisco Garcia gobbled up some of his time in last night’s loss to Chicago, too. I wrote more about Hamilton yesterday.

7) Terrence Jones

When Dwight Howard, James Harden, and Chandler Parsons all aren’t playing well, there’s literally a 0% chance Terrence Jones will pick up the slack. His athleticism has been a revelation this season, but he’s still too dependent on those other guys to do all the heavy lifting on offense.

Defensively, there were a few plays against Portland’s large front line where Jones made a perfect rotation but was still tossed aside at the rim.

6) Donatas Motiejunas

I wrote more about Motiejunas yesterday, but would like to point out that he was the only Rocket (besides Jeremy Lin) who showed up for last night’s game. That isn’t necessarily saying a lot, but Motiejunas is beginning to come into his own as a surprisingly quick man-to-man defender.

This may be due to the confidence he has knowing either Omer Asik or Dwight Howard is standing behind him at all times, prepared to block a shot should Motiejunas’ man blow past him, but against Taj Gibson he was fantastic, taking a charge (that sent Gibson to the bench), knocking the ball away, staying grounded on pump/head fakes in the post.

It was really good to see, and probably he only positive takeaway from Houston’s most pathetic loss of the season.

5) Patrick Beverley

When he’s knocking down threes, converting tough floaters, and turning 30,000 faces a violent shade of red, Patrick Beverley is first team NBA All-Emotional Impact. I’m sure thousands of people detest his antics and wish he’d play nice, but Beverley isn’t in this league on physical ability alone. If he didn’t play the way he does, with such physicality and aggressiveness, he wouldn’t be an NBA player.

Sometimes Beverley goes too far, and turns into an uncontrollable antagonist; sometimes that notoriety bites him in the ass. Russell Westbrook Hannibal Lecter’d Beverley up and down the court last week, proving true the long held belief that unnecessarily riling up one of the best players in the league isn’t always a great idea.

But more times than not, Beverley dances on the productive side of mania. It’s a pleasure to watch whenever it happens.

4) Chandler Parsons

Parsons drove to the basket quite a bit this week, and his mid-range pull up game poses a difficult dilemma for defenses everywhere. He’s knocking down runners, getting all the way to the rim, throwing a vicious pump fake before knocking down a mid-range jumper.

He’s always adding subtle wrinkles to his offense, but the other end remains craptacular. Although, I will say his on-ball defense against Kevin Durant wasn’t terrible.

3) Dwight Howard

It’s no mystery: the Houston Rockets won’t beat the Oklahoma City Thunder until Dwight Howard plays like Dwight Howard. Kendrick Perkins didn’t even play in this go around, but Howard still couldn’t deal with OKC’s Steven Adams, Hasheem Thabeet, Nick Collison hydra dragon. This is officially a concern.

Last night, Howard didn’t really get into the game until there were a few minutes remaining in the second half. He was drawing fouls away from the ball, flying out to contest jump shots, sucking up rebounds, blocking weak dunk attempts (Howdy, Carlos!), and even throwing in a couple hook shots for good measure.

At halftime, he crawled back into his cocoon only to emerge 20 minutes later as a scary turnover monster. Meanwhile, Joakim Noah was one assist away from a triple-double. I still think it’s ludicrous to put Chicago’s center ahead of Howard on the All-NBA first team, but if last night’s the only sample you’re using to vote, then Noah is clearly the superior player.

2) Jeremy Lin

Something interesting happened with 12 seconds left in the first quarter of Houston’s win over Portland. Jeremy Lin came off a high screen, saw the big man in his face giving him a healthy cushion, and pulled up for a mid-range jumper. It went in.

For the season, only 16.7% of Lin’s field goal attempts have come between 10 and 23 feet from the basket. This should surprise zero people, since he plays for the Houston Rockets. But maybe, when he’s stuck in a shooting tailspin, Lin should tighten his range a bit. He’s not a bad mid-range shooter.

The long two is widely frowned upon, but there are instances where it might be acceptable, especially when the defense is giving him a wide open look.

All that said, he was aggressive down the stretch against Portland, and hit a monstrous go-ahead three with just over a minute to go. That Lin-Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Howard lineup is a tornado. And he was fantastic against the Bulls when nobody else came to play.

1) James Harden

Heading into last night’s abomination in Chicago, James Harden was averaging 32.3 points (on a high volume and INSANE 47.0/58.3/87.5 shooting split), 6.3 assists, and 7.3 rebounds in 40.3 minutes over this week’s games.

These games did not come in a triple-header against the Cavaliers. The opponents were tough cookies: the Indiana Pacers, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Portland Trail Blazers.

It’s fair to say Houston caught all three at the absolute best time (including the Thunder, who won), but that’s besides the point when you look at how efficient and commanding Harden’s numbers are. (It’s also a three-game sample size.)

Side bar: Only a tiny handful of players should be allowed to pull up for three off a high screen when their defender follows them above it. Harden might be number one on that list. (Brandon Jennings comes in at #467.)

It’s one of his most savagely unstoppable moments. How do you guard this without totally compromising your entire team defense? My head hurts just thinking about it.

Michael Pina covers the NBA  for Red94 and CelticsHub (ESPN’s TrueHoop Network), Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 20 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Patrick Beverley’s un-muzzled feistiness; Terrence Jones flashing his tip of the iceberg potential and doing just about everything a human can possibly do above the rim; and Jeremy Lin’s consistently inconsistent play.

These are all are narratives that have endured throughout this season, and will surely resurface here and there over the next month or two. But now that nearly everyone is healthy (sorry, Greg Smith), and the Houston Rockets are accredited title contenders, what else is there to explore with this team?

They quickly debunked the theory that beating a fatigued Miami Heat team at home didn’t mean too much by stomping all over the Indiana Pacers and Portland Trail Blazers before an uninspiring loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder on Tuesday night.

The Rockets are one of only four teams in the league with an offense (5th) and defense (9th) that resides in the top 10. Kevin McHale knows the rotation, and from here on out no drastic changes are necessary. This team has found and accepted its “identity.”

What about all we don’t know? For the sake of argument, nothing Howard, Harden, Parsons, Lin, Beverley, or Jones do in the playoffs should surprise anybody who’s watched them all year—good or bad. We know their strengths and weaknesses, what they’re capable of doing and not doing. We know tendencies and preferences. These are arguably the team’s six best players, and if any two or three craps it up in the first-round, Houston’s season could end with a disappointing thud.

Here’s a look at three relatively unpredictable contributors who could have a big impact in the playoffs, or make no noise at all.

Omer Asik

One year ago, Omer Asik was arguably Houston’s most consistent player. As one-dimensional as he is large, Asik manufactured a defensive campaign that should have received more recognition by those who vote for Defensive Player of the Year. He grabbed more rebounds than everybody in the league. (Everybody!)

Then Dwight Howard came to town, and Asik’s great season was immediately swept under the rug. The hurt feelings that spawned have basically sabotaged Asik’s second year in Houston. After McHale brushed his teeth with the idea of playing his two centers at the same time—ultimately deciding it just wasn’t a viable unit—Asik demanded a trade, essentially held his team for ransom by missing a few games he was healthy enough to play in, then sat out months with a somewhat mysterious thigh bruise.

Now he’s back at what appears to be 100%. What are the questions to ask here? Well, the most important one, in this writer’s opinion, is: Should McHale revisit Howard/Asik lineups?

Since the All-Star break, Asik and Howard have shared the court in three games for a grand total of nine minutes. The numbers don’t tell a pretty story, but what do they actually know in such a small sample? McHale last deployed the two giants against Portland’s Robin Lopez/LaMarcus Aldridge tandem, and they fared reasonably well.

Jones is a very good player who may be on his way to special things, but in this year’s playoffs it’s problematic in a seven-game series for him to guard Aldridge, Blake Griffin, David Lee, Zach Randolph, Dirk Nowitzki, or Boris Diaw (yes, that Boris Diaw) in the post.

Something tells me Houston will need that Asik/Howard tandem to work at some point. But for now, maybe Asik should focus on dunking the ball?

Let’s play a game. Look at the pictures below, and try to guess whether Asik made the dunk or missed it.

Give up? He missed both. Asik will never be a reliable option in the post, but right now he’s shooting just 47.7 percent from the floor. Since basically all his attempts come within a yard stick of the basket, this is embarrassing. At least he’s (sort of) making his free-throws.

Where Asik will most likely help is as a backup center. As Grantland’s Zach Lowe pointed out earlier this week, should Howard run into foul trouble, having the option of putting Asik in the game is downright luxurious. It’s like forgetting to pack a lunch on the same day your boss orders pizza for the office.

Forget about all the hissy fits and temper tantrums, Houston’s defense operates at a top-three level with Asik on the court. He’s still that paint-clogging guardian of the rim, just in a limited dosage. Opponents shoot 42.6% at the rim when he’s the closest defender (a figure nearly as good as Roy Hibbert).

There are millions of things I can’t answer about why Asik acted out this season (it couldn’t still be discomfort from knowing his team’s decision-makers were interested in signing the best center of this generation instead of playing him—the offensive mess he is—30 minutes every night, could it?), but had he approached things differently, we might be talking about a Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

Donatas Motiejunas

Donatas Motiejunas is such an interesting basketball player. He’s tall, young, coordinated, and (sometimes) smooth. He’s fast enough to blow by lumbering bigs, and long enough to give ball-handlers and big men a headache.

But he’s yet to put these skills together. Recently, McHale has played Motiejunas at power forward beside Asik. It’s a tandem that should work, but struggles offensively (defensively they’ve been great).

Motiejunas will often be the roll man in these units, and even though he has deft foot work and a soft touch, he still rushes on the catch, either forcing a shot up or hastily shuffling a pass to nowhere.

On defense we’ve seen legitimate improvement from Day 1, and he’s much better on the boards from last season. But where he’s most intriguing as an effective weapon is when Houston chooses to full-court press. As soon as Houston makes a basket, Motiejunas will turn his back to the in-bounder and prevent any pass from coming into the closest opponent.

This may not look like much, but it makes the other team feel jumpy and disjointed. Watch this clip.

It takes Portland nearly seven seconds to get the ball over half-court, and by the time they go to a pick-and-roll with Batum, there’s only 10 seconds to go. (Batum eventually turns it over.)

Houston doesn’t need Motiejunas to reach his full potential tomorrow, but if the spurts turn into a slow trickle, this team will be a matchup nightmare come the playoffs.

Jordan Hamilton

When Patrick Beverley fouled out with three minutes to go in Houston’s recent overtime win over the Portland Trail Blazers, McHale replaced him with Jordan Hamilton.

The Trail Blazers weren’t small at the time. They had a traditional Mo Williams-Batum-Wesley Matthews-Aldridge-Lopez unit on the court. Harden, Howard, Parsons, and Lin were on for Houston. Jones, Motiejunas, and Asik weren’t “in the flow” of that particular game, each of them having been on the bench for about a quarter straight.

Was it a trust thing? Did McHale want to keep as many shooters/ball-handlers on the floor as possible? Rational aside, the Rockets outscored Portland by eight points once Hamilton took the floor. McHale’s decision may have been a surprise, but the results were not.

Hamilton is already comfortable on both ends of the floor, and is being used in myriad unexpected ways. He’s proven to be more dangerous than a typical spot up shooter, so the Rockets are running him off screens, feeding him on the move, and letting him make reads on the defense. Here are two subsequent examples from the most recent Thunder game. Hamilton comes off a pin down screen and catches a pass with his momentum carrying him into the paint. He’s aggressive, and gets to the foul line in both.

Over half his field goal attempts have come behind the three-point line, where he’s now shooting a cold 31%. But the sample size is small, and, thankfully, it hasn’t caused any hesitation in his release—especially in transition, where he’s shooting 42.9% on threes.

Hamilton’s been better than advertised on defense, though I noted he’d be an upgrade on the perimeter when Houston traded for him. In 160 minutes, the Rockets have allowed 98.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the court. Only the Chicago Bulls and Indiana Pacers are better.

It’s one tiny blip, but here he is stifling Batum on a pretty big possession.

The word “revelation” is probably a bit strong, but Hamilton has exceeded all expectations since Houston traded for him.

None of these three guys are breaking scoreboards with gaudy statistics. None of them will play heavy minutes in the playoffs (and one may even be squeezed from the rotation—Motiejunas and Hamilton were benched for the second half in Oklahoma City in favor of Francisco Garcia), but each has the potential to turn a game. Each can make a huge play, give Houston an unquantifiable emotional lift, and contribute to a championship.

The talent is there, and each of these guys seems to understand the role they’ve been given. Each one will need to be filled if Houston wants to win its last game before summer vacation.

Michael Pina regularly contributes for Red94 and CelticsHub (ESPN’s TrueHoop Network), Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina.

The post Exploring the margins of a contender appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

12) Troy Daniels 

Two minutes of garbage time that provided a zero in every statistical category. Welcome to the Red94 Player Power Rankings, Mr. Daniels!

11)  Isaiah Canaan

See above, minus the second sentence.

10) Omri Casspi

The arrival of Jordan Hamilton and a healthy Omer Asik has nudged Omri Casspi to the end of Houston’s bench. He’s barely in the rotation, and played just 16 minutes this week even though he shot the ball pretty well. 

9) Donatas Motiejunas

Interesting week from Donatas Motiejunas, who tries really hard, but looks out of his element. He’s still too timid at the rim, rushing shots when nobody’s around. This week, the Rockets averaged 80.3 points per 100 possessions with Motiejunas on the floor. Those units only knew two ways to play: fast and atrocious.

Kevin McHale is pairing Motiejunas with Omer Asik quite a bit, and it’s a fantastic opportunity for the youngster to provide spacing and show his potential on the offensive end. Rebounding won’t be a priority, and he looks comfortable as a defender on the perimeter. He has quick feet and solid instincts. It’s time he combines them. That talent is waiting to burst.

8) Omer Asik

Omer Asik is having a REALLY difficult time putting the ball in the basket. Catching passes at the rim and laying the ball in used to be OK, but his impact is now limited to setting screens and grabbing offensive rebounds.

He averaged 1.7 points this week, and shot 25% from the floor. But his defense, is, just, wow. So good. Asik finally looks like the guy from last year on that end, smothering pick-and-rolls and breaking out some imposing verticality at the rim.

He destroyed every Pistons ballhandler who dared challenge him, jumping straight in the air and sending the smaller guards crashing to the floor. Right now he’s one of the biggest luxuries in the league (no pun intended).

7) Jeremy Lin

Shooting woes continue for Jeremy Lin, who put up a 26.7/16.7/66.7 split while averaging barely 15 minutes per game this week. Unlike Beverley, who can contribute in so many different ways when his shot isn’t falling, Lin is a liability elsewhere. Here he is trying to guard Norris Cole on a simple high pick-and-roll.

He runs into D-Mo, and Cole knocks in a wide open jumper. As someone constantly looking for his own shot, Lin can be a detriment to his team when he isn’t confident and aggressive with the ball. His hesitations in the pick-and-roll led to more than a few bad turnovers, and he probably won’t see an increase in minutes until that shot starts to trickle in.

6) Jordan Hamilton

His numbers weren’t anything phenomenal this week, but Jordan Hamilton has easily tripled Daryl Morey and Kevin McHale’s expectations.

It was assumed he’d knock down the occasional open three as a catch-and-shoot threat, but Hamilton has looked so comfortable doing more on both ends.

He’s taking hand-offs into the paint, handling the ball in transition, reading the defense and reacting with smart decisions, sinking buzzer-beating runners. If I had to put the over/under on pick-and-rolls Hamilton would run this season, it’d be 2.5 and I’d take the under. This week he nearly ran one or two per game.

Hamilton’s defense has been solid, too, especially on the ball, which is exactly where the Rockets could really use some competence. On more than one possession, Dwyane Wade couldn’t get past him in the Miami game.

5) Chandler Parsons

Chandler Parsons shot just 22.2% on threes this week, but still put up solid all-around numbers: 14 points, five boards, 7.5 assists per game. He was active against the Heat, driving to the basket and showing off a nifty mid-range game, but was completely absent from the action early on in Orlando. The Rockets are a much better team when Parsons is taking the ball to the basket.

4) Terrence Jones

Do you ever feel like the Rockets are struggling when Terrence Jones is on the court? Me neither. This week Houston outscored opponents by 19.7 points per 100 possessions with him playing. He also dunked the ball 682 times in three games and demoralized Miami’s undersized front line. Here’s his shot chart from the week.

A truly horrifying moment (for the opposition) came against Orlando, when Jones broke out some extra funky handles and murdered Tobias Harris before scoring two points. Almost all his production is dependent on the play of others, but if Jones manages to make more plays like this one, the Rockets will be scarier than they already are. What starting five-man unit would be more formidable offensively than Houston?

3. Patrick Beverley

He wouldn’t agree, but this may have been the most important week of Patrick Beverley’s career. He’s been great all year, but for whatever reason this week just felt like a coming out party. The Rockets are playing exceptional basketball, and Beverley is one of their strongest personalities. More tangible rational: He shot the crap out of the basketball, filled every opponent’s heart with murderous rage, and propped his name on the national stage against Miami.

Beverley shot 47.6% on threes this week. He also attempted seven threes per game. Three games is a small sample size, but something about him doing it against the defending champs this late in the season feels significant. Surely it isn’t.

There are moments when Beverley tries pulling off just a little too much off the dribble, but in the regular season that stuff is fine. Obviously, Houston would prefer drives to the basket be handled by Chandler Parsons, James Harden, or even Jeremy Lin, but when Beverley misses a wild floater, you feel like he’ll immediately make up for it with a solid defensive play.

2. Dwight Howard

I wrote about Dwight being “underrated” yesterday, so all I want to say here is his game-opening drop step in Orlando was sublime poetry. That’s all, really. He was awesome this week.

1. James Harden

Tape of James Harden’s first quarter against the Detroit Pistons should be remembered as the basketball equivalent of Monet’s Woman in a Garden.

It was beautiful and simplistic. Harden did what he wanted. For the week, he averaged 24 points (on 54% shooting), 9.7 assists, and 4.0 rebounds per game.

He commanded stretches against the Miami Heat with isolation plays that typically aren’t desired—and nearly threw the game away (literally) with a ridiculous pass in the closing moments—but also hit some shots that superstars get paid to take and make.

One interesting development of Harden’s game has come on the defensive end, where he’s suddenly playing too much defense. He’s fouling jump shooters left and right, and picked up two early fouls against Miami and Orlando. It’s almost as if he’s acknowledging the criticism people (rightfully) keep lobbing towards his sorry defensive effort. But fouling jump shooters won’t put you in good graces with anyone.

Michael Pina regularly contributes for Red94 and CelticsHub (ESPN’s TrueHoop Network), Sports On Earth, Bleacher Report, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina. 

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 19 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Despite this article’s title, I won’t be writing about whether Dwight Howard is underrated or overrated. But after hearing a few NBA pundits, writers, and commentators speak their mind, and taking part in several first-hand conversations at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in Boston last weekend, it became fairly obvious that either people aren’t watching Howard play basketball, find it difficult to praise him in a season where so many younger frontcourt talents are rising (Blake Griffin, Kevin Love, DeMarcus Cousins, Andre Drummond, etc.), or don’t like him for reasons that have nothing to do with his performance on a basketball court.

Picking apart the words someone says on television or on a podcast makes me uncomfortable because often times those thoughts aren’t fully formed. They’re gut reflexes to questions being asked on the spot. Key statistics aren’t at the ready, hours of film study can’t be done in the five minutes someone has to cover a topic. Sometimes the entire discussion is framed around a specific narrative that would be crushed by the “right” answer.

This article, then, is my attempt to give credit where it’s due by highlighting a player whose reputation—both positive and negative—precedes everything he does on the court.

“Howard still has no post-moves.” “He isn’t as dominant defensively.” “He was one of the five best players in the league four years ago, but he isn’t as good now, so how can he still be a top five player?” Smart followers of the league know that first point is bogus, and that Howard’s still a game-changing defensive presence who plays hard 35 minutes a game. Is he one of the five best players in the league? That’s still an argument worth having.

Citing per game statistics don’t really work. Howard is averaging fewer minutes than in any season since his rookie year. The per 36 numbers paint a brighter picture, and his advanced numbers (included PER, True Shooting percentage, usage rate, and all the rebounding figures) are right around his career averages.

But one of the most interesting things we do as fans and observers is constantly compare a player to his former self instead of his present-day peers. According to Basketball-Reference, Howard currently ranks in the top 20 for the following categories: minutes, field goals made, free-throws made, free-throws attempted, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, total rebounds, blocks, points, field goal percentage, PER, True Shooting percentage, Effective field goal percentage, the three rebound rates, defensive rating, defensive win shares, win shares, and win shares per 48 minutes.

Many players in the NBA have their on-court development unfairly handcuffed to their natural growth as a person. Howard is Exhibit A.

But in the end, words like “overrated” and “underrated” bow at the altar of “reality.” And in “reality,” this season Howard is easily the best center in the NBA. If you’d like to argue for Joakim Noah (one of my favorite players in the league), here are their side-by-side statistics. Keep in mind the Houston Rockets are one of the five best teams in basketball, play in the Western Conference (tougher competition), and have won 16 of their last 21 games (with losses coming against the Golden State Warriors, Oklahoma City Thunder, Memphis Grizzlies, and Los Angeles Clippers).

The number one narrative associated with Howard is his relationship with Kevin McHale and Hakeem Olajuwon, and how now that he’s in direct contact with both legends on a daily basis, his post moves should flourish because those guys were two of the best post scorers in basketball history.

This line of thinking always struck me as odd. It reminds me of a Seinfeld episode, where Jerry wants the ever pathological George to teach him how to pass a lie detector test. George’s response: It’s like saying to Pavarotti, “Teach me to sing like you.”

Obviously, Olajuwon and McHale give Howard tips and advice—how to counter his defender’s movement, the need to attack quickly before a double can arrive, etc.—but fluid post-play isn’t transmittable. If I spend an entire year following Stephen King around Maine, drinking coffee at his side while he burrows into his next novel, peppering him with question after question, there’s a chance my writing will improve. King might make me see things differently.

But as soon as I fly back to LA, sit down at my desk and start typing away on a blank Microsoft Word document, there’s little to no chance my work will be as good or better than “The Stand.” Now or 10 years from now. There’s only one Stephen King.

Does Howard move like Olajuwon or McHale? No. There’s a great chance nobody ever will again. But he’s gotten noticeably better as the season’s gone on, both scoring against single coverage and passing out of double teams.

Howard has several moves now, where he used to only have one or two. His baseline drop step is ballet compared to last year’s rusty gate.

He’s powerful, too, turning either shoulder into a snow plow and clearing out whoever’s standing between him and the rim. This power is paired with coordinated explosion possessed by zero players his size. Howard’s first step is a thing of beauty, and he’s comfortable facing an opponent up on the wing, then attacking baseline (instead of drifting towards the free-throw line, which he still does from time to time).

The entire defense is on pins and needles whenever Howard catches the ball with his back to the basket. He puts opposing big men in foul trouble, and draws three second violations regularly. In February, Howard averaged 22.8 points and 12.9 rebounds per game. He shot 65.4% from the floor and 60.7% (hooray!) from the free-throw line. Those numbers are truly devastating if sustained the rest of the season.

As SB Nation’s Drew Garrison wonderfully pointed out earlier this week, Howard is one of the five most efficient scorers near the basket, but his post numbers, courtesy of mySynergySports, won’t blow your mind away (he’s ranked just outside the top 100). Explaining why the eye test doesn’t align with Howard’s 0.76 points per possession average is difficult, but silly turnovers and poor entry passes earlier in the season might begin to explain things.

Howard’s work elsewhere is dominant and unquantifiable. The attention he draws as rolling thunder through the lane after setting a high screen remains huge for Houston’s three-point shooters. He’s the third most efficient roll man in the league, the second most efficient scorer when catching a pass on a cut, and the fifth most efficient scorer in transition.

Howard still gets in trouble trying to make a “home run” pass when a double team comes and hitting the nearest open man will do, but he’s more than capable of connecting on cross-court daggers—Patrick Beverley appreciates this more than anyone else on the planet.

This play happens at least once a game: Beverley enters the ball to the post, then cuts along the baseline to the opposite corner, but his man sticks to Howard.

See Beverley on the left-hand side? Waving his arm to get Howard’s attention while Mario Chalmers tries to get the steal? A second after this photo was taken, Howard flipped the ball across the court, and Beverley calmly sunk a wide open three.

Houston scores 109.3 points per 100 possessions with Howard on the court (second best in the league) and allow 101.6 (seventh best in the league) on the other end. Given the strengths and weaknesses of Howard’s teammates (most notably the gaping holes on the perimeter left open by Chandler Parsons, James Harden, and Jeremy Lin) that second number is extremely impressive. He probably won’t win Defensive Player of the Year, but only two or three players are more deserving.

Opponents shoot 47.8% on 9.2 field goal attempts per game at the rim when Howard is the closest defender, per SportVU. That number isn’t better than Roy Hibbert, Serge Ibaka, or Andrew Bogut, but it’s still very good.

And unlike most bigs, Howard is marvelous shuffling his feet against smaller, quicker players on the perimeter whenever he’s forced to switch. He’s stifled Goran Dragic, Dwyane Wade, and Arron Afflalo. Here he is on Wade.

Dwight Howard isn’t a flawless basketball player, but for reasons that (I suspect) have little to do with basketball, the perception of his play hasn’t been very honest this year. He’s the best center in basketball, the most irreplaceable two-way cog on a title contender. Would the Rockets trade him for anyone not named LeBron James or Kevin Durant? Probably not, because they’re smart enough to know exactly what they have.

Michael Pina regularly contributes for Red94 and CelticsHub (ESPN’s TrueHoop Network), Sports On Earth, Bleacher Report, and The Classical. His writing can be found here. Follow him @MichaelVPina. 

The post Is Dwight Howard underrated? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

(That trade came at the price of Danny Granger’s feelings, when the Indiana Pacers removed his heart using the world’s sharpest grapefruit spoon, shipping a one-time franchise great from the only team he’s ever known—and a title favorite—to basketball’s own Ural Mountains. Feel better, Danny.)

Rajon Rondo did not end up in Houston. Omer Asik did not end up anywhere else. Names like Luol Deng, Iman Shumpert, Harrison Barnes, and Thaddeus Young were replaced by LaVoy Allen, Eric Maynor, Jan Vesely, and Andre Miller.

The league’s current Collective Bargaining Agreement has seen to it that draft picks and rookie scale contracts are treated with the utmost respect. Second only to the cross-cultural superstars recognized by your mother, young players who can contribute and produce without an eight figure salary are what the league is all about today. Most teams have no interest in acquiring a high-priced long-term contract, and that’s exactly what was for sale. This is fine, except when it compromises a trade deadline that at one point was entertaining theatre.

How was yesterday for Houston? The Rockets have Daryl Morey as their general manager, so of course they can proudly raise their hand as one of only a few teams to participate in an actual trade. As you already know from reading the opening line of this very article, Houston’s lone deal was uninspiring.

In exchange for third-string point guard Aaron Brooks, the Rockets received Jordan Hamilton, a below-average shooting guard from the Denver Nuggets.

A lot about this deal makes sense. With Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley comfortably holding things down at the point, Brooks was shut out of Houston’s rotation. They didn’t need him. Hamilton, on the other hand, is seven inches taller, six years younger, and can beef up what sometimes resembles a regrettable caliber of weaponry on the wing.

So, it’s time to learn more about Hamilton: strengths, weaknesses, what role he might fill, can he help in the playoffs, why his Twitter handle is so amazing, etc.

This has been Hamilton’s third season in the NBA, and his first with regular playing time. He’s appeared in 39 games with the Nuggets and started 11, averaging pedestrian numbers and shooting under 40% from the floor. The field goal percentage is bad, but shouldn’t be vilified. Even though he’s only shooting 34.9% from behind the arc this season, Hamilton’s three-point shot is likely what caught Morey’s eye. For every two field goals Hamilton attempted, one three-pointer was launched. Good news, considering he’s an eagle eye from the corner (46.7% on 30 attempts).

Thanks to Dwight Howard’s presence and Houston’s up and down style, Hamilton should see more open looks than ever before. He was already 39.5% on catch-and-shoot threes while playing in an average offense with no real playmakers aside from Ty Lawson and (maybe) Evan Fournier. That’s decent, not great. But it should rise even higher once he’s afforded more open looks off the play-making genius of Harden, Parsons, and Lin.

On defense, Hamilton’s numbers from mySynergySports are solid. He doesn’t get lost, makes timely help rotations whenever needed, possesses awareness that’d make James Harden blush (on second thought, this isn’t hard to do), and has assumed various assignments throughout the season, taking on Ricky Rubio one night and Luis Scola (for a brief stretch) the next. I guess you could call that versatility.

He isn’t a psychological pest like Tony Allen or Avery Bradley, but Hamilton does a sound job forcing his man to take jump shots off the dribble (except, according to lots of footage, when that man is Lance Stephenson). All in all he’s a so-so defender, but that still qualifies as a major upgrade over what Houston already has.

Brooks is the better player, but Hamilton brings Houston half a millimeter closer to a title, which is obviously why the deal HAD to be done. He’s 6’7” and an unrestricted free agent once the season ends, two factors that make him more valuable to Houston than Aaron Brooks, even though he isn’t fully realized as a talent.

But will Hamilton even play? The Nuggets were much better on offense with Hamilton on the bench. When he sat their efficiency level was equivalent to a top-10 unit. With him on the floor that figure dropped to the other end of the spectrum.

Ultimately, Omri Casspi and Francisco Garcia should pay the closest attention to this trade, as its one of those two (particularly Garcia) who Hamilton could eventually supplant in the rotation. Both have been inconsistent this season, and, in Garcia’s case, nearly useless when shots aren’t falling.

Hamilton’s ceiling appears to be that of a modestly athletic 3-and-D guy, which is exactly what Houston needs the most. The trade was uneventful, but that doesn’t mean Hamilton won’t have a moment in the playoffs.

Michael Pina is a writer for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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11) Aaron Brooks (Last week: N/A)

There’s a comfort in knowing Aaron Brooks is your third point guard. Is he the best backup to the backup point guard in the league? Is that even a compliment?

Brooks knows how to score, can stretch the floor, and is capable of a surprising jolt of athleticism from time to time, whether that be some insane offensive rebound, an unexpected block from the weak side, or staying in front of John Wall. (It feels like he’s really old, but Brooks just turned 29 in January.)

He played 11 minutes this week, all coming against the Washington Wizards on Wednesday night. Even though Patrick Beverley is clearly the better player on both ends of the floor, seeing Brooks replace him isn’t the worst thing in the world.

10) Omri Casspi (Last week: 8)

It’s true. Omri Casspi failed to score a basket this week despite 20 minutes of action. If/when Houston strikes before the trade deadline, expect at least one trade they participate in to bring back a dependable bench player on a short-term deal. Casspi has moments of awesomeness, but it’s unclear where he’s consistent enough to be in Houston’s rotation during the playoffs. (If the postseason started tomorrow, Donatas Motiejunas would probably get a chunk of Casspi’s minutes.)

9) Omer Asik (Last week: N/A)

ASIK BACK! Sort of. We saw tiny blips of Asik’s old self this week, but he (understandably) looked exhausted after the first three or four trips up the court. Against the Timberwolves he was tasked with covering Kevin Love for one stretch, and instead of sticking around the rim, Asik had to worry about covering the perimeter (not his forte). Love burned him. A dunk happened, though!

8) Francisco Garcia (Last week: N/A)

With 8.5 seconds remaining in the first half against Washington, John Wall tried to inbound the ball from his own baseline. He couldn’t. Why? Francisco Garcia was hopping up and down in front of his face, waving his arms and being a general nuisance. There are other reasons why that five-second violation occurred, but noting them would distract you from Garcia’s only accomplishment of the week.

7) Terrence Jones (Last week: 2)

Tough week for Terrence Jones. He couldn’t guard Kevin Love (who can?) without fouling, and committed a few costly turnovers towards the end against Washington. Jones didn’t have his typical impact on the glass, either, and on offense wasn’t good for more than an occasional high-flying alley-oop. Have we reached the point where Jones should refrain from any more three-point attempts?

6) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 7)

Donatas Motiejunas was better than Terrence Jones this week. For Houston, that’s better news than heading into the All-Star break on a seven-game win streak. Not that Jones struggling is a good thing, but for them to have two super cheap, young guys contribute and show week-to-week improvement is fantastic. Motiejunas was aggressive off the dribble (somehow he caught Jan Vesely in a torture rack out at the elbow), made quality defensive rotations, and, generally speaking, looked like a player who deserves legitimate minutes.

There was one play against Minnesota when Motiejunas sprinted up the floor, caught a pass over his shoulder while going full speed beneath the basket, and still managed to lay it in. This was marvelous. Also, Bill Worrell said “3-Mo for D-Mo” when Motiejunas made a wipe open three, and it made me laugh. Who isn’t enjoying this season of Rockets basketball?

5) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 4)

Lin’s defense was nothing short of great this week. He was up on his man time and time again—whether it be J.J. Barea, Ricky Rubio, Brandon Knight, whoever—thwarting drives to the hoop and sticking tight off the ball. This was good to see.

On the other end, Lin wasn’t bad. He nearly shot 50% from the floor and 40% from the three-point line, but Houston scored 8.1 more points per 100 possessions with him on the bench.

4) Patrick Beverley (Last week: 6)

Beverley made seven threes out of his 13 attempts this week, most of them wide open. How many times did he turn it over? Zero. That’s a good number, right?

For the second week in a row, Houston has played out of their minds when Beverley is on the court. He missed Wednesday night’s game against the Wizards, but was fantastic in the other two, driving to the basket, creating shots for himself and others. The Rockets were 20.5 points per 100 possessions better than the Bucks and Timberwolves with Beverley on the floor this week. That number is monstrous, and firmly attests to Beverley’s maniacal brand of complimentary basketball.

3) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 3)

Okay, so Parsons was awesome this week with the ball in his hands. It appears he’s finally mastered the lob to Dwight Howard, and in all three games connected on several from different spots on the floor. Parsons was aggressive in traffic and shot 51.4%, too. I say this every week, but whatever, here goes again: he’s SO GOOD ON OFFENSE. Okay, now onto a couple defensive mishaps.

That first screen shot came moments after Jeremy Lin made a three on the other end. It’s not doctored, and I don’t even know how to use photoshop. Why Parsons (or any of his teammates) didn’t get back on defense on a routine play is beyond me.

The second screen shot came after Parsons poked the ball away from Nene and, thinking he had a steal, rushed out to the other end for a fast break opportunity. Instead the Wizards recovered the loose ball almost instantly, and Nene found a wide open Bradley Beal on the wing. Houston’s defense is ranked in the top-10, but both these plays are symptomatic of a lingering issue that will probably prevent any true success in the playoffs.

2) James Harden (Last week: 5)

My weekly criticism of Harden’s defense will commence shortly, but first: Does it really need to be said that Harden’s positive impact on offense GREATLY outweighs his negative impact on the other end? I wrote something similar last week, but sometimes it feels like Harden and Dwight Howard are the two best players in the league who have their weaknesses talked about more than their strengths. I’m guilty of doing this, as you’ll read later, but whenever I write something critical I just sort of assume people understand how great these guys are on a consistent basis, and how awful their team would be if they didn’t play.

A freaking Euro-step with four seconds left to win the game? Are you kidding? Who does that? The timing and body control was breathtaking. The calmness of it all. Harden turned it over a bunch this week, but he also averaged 25.3 points per game and was automatic at the free-throw line. His strength on drives to the basket is incredible, as is his ability to stop on a dime (does anyone know the meaning behind that saying?) and float a lob pass to Howard or Terrence Jones. (He tried to toss one to Asik, but there was little chance he was jumping up for it.)

Anyway, Harden is really awesome and the Rockets wouldn’t be in the playoff hunt without him, atrocious defense and all.

Speaking of atrocious defense…

…Trevor Ariza made 10 three-pointers during Wednesday’s game, most coming with Harden as his defender. This was one.

1) Dwight Howard (Last week: 1) 

Howard was great this week. He made his free-throws (67.9%!), hoarded rebounds against two solid rebounding teams (and the Bucks without Larry Sanders, who played five minutes before breaking a bone in his face), and ate Vesely and Gorgui Dieng whole. But this week, Howard’s most impressive plays were passes. His assists weren’t simple kick-outs, either. When double teams came he repeatedly found an open shooter spotting up on the weak side. These passes crippled the Milwaukee Bucks, and usually ended up as three more points for the Rockets.

When Howard sat Houston’s offense was beyond atrocious. Only 30 minutes, but still, 75.7 points per 100 possessions? That’s “three Bud Lights deep before the opening tip in my rec game” bad.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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An open layup or dunk will always be the number one option for an offense and the number one priority for the defense, because the object of the game is to put the ball in the basket and the closer to the hoop you are the easier it’ll be. (Did you know uncontested layups are easy? Crazy but true.)

But while shots at the rim are the most effective and desired, the corner three is the most strategically intriguing. Stopping it is increasingly central to all key defensive principles because offenses have correctly identified it as a shot they should fall in love with. Veterans across the league work to develop their range from a baseline 15-footer out to the corner, knowing it’ll increase their careers and make them a more valuable commodity (which means more $$$). Chris Bosh and Serge Ibaka are two popular examples, but remember Patrick Patterson? Just a hunch, but there are more players in the league today who can hit this shot consistently than ever before.

Heading into this season, Houston’s coaching staff preached how important it was for their defenders to improve their rotations on the perimeter, become aware of both the ball and their man, and, most importantly, close out on open shooters in the corner. Improvement here was mandatory.

Last year they were awful. Opponents imposed their will from the corner, hitting 43.8% of their shots, which was the second worst defensive mark in the league. They allowed 5.7 attempts per game: eighth highest. On the other end of the floor, the Rockets launched the third most corner threes despite ranking 28th in accuracy. The team clearly knew how important the shot was, and is.

Fast forward to now. Houston’s foes are currently shooting just 33.8% from the corner, which is the second stingiest percentage in the league. Only the Oklahoma City Thunder are better, and coming in third behind them are the Indiana Pacers.

So, just so we’re all on the same page, Houston is giving up the same number of corner three attempts as last year, but teams aren’t making them at the same rate. This is fantastic, but how is it happening? Is it just dumb luck? Or are they actually that much quicker to contest?

Dozens and dozens of wonderful examples exist, but here are just a few showing how decisive and quick Houston’s perimeter defenders are when bum-rushing the corner. The first two (both shot by Avery Bradley) went in.

From Monday night’s victory over Minnesota, here’s one play where Terrence Jones and Patrick Beverley simultaneously convince Kevin Love to pass up an open three. It’s great effort, and smart basketball. Rubio’s three rimmed out moments later.

The largest difference between this season and last is Dwight Howard. For all the talk about a developing post game and whether he’s stunting James Harden’s offense in any way, shape, or form (I’m actually not sure if anyone talks about this, but I think about it from time to time), Howard’s defense remains non-fictionally impressive.

With Howard on the floor, opponents are shooting 32.9% from the corner. When he sits that number jumps to 36.4%—still 10th best in the league, but that’s obviously not the same as first.

He forces offenses to do things they don’t want to do, and allows his teammates to play with less hesitation and more aggressiveness. They can/should also be able to stay at home on the perimeter more often, even in situations where doing so is already obvious.

Here’s one. Timberwolves point guard J.J. Barea—who always looks like he could use a good night’s sleep—has a mismatch above the arc against Donatas Motiejunas. Minnesota recognizes it and clears out three players on the weak side (none of which are actually capable of spacing the floor).

Look at Beverley, who’s guarding Alexey Shved in the strong side corner. Should Barea drive, Beverley must velcro himself to that corner. This sounds easy, but players slide off all the time when that guard starts moving towards the paint. Should Howard fail to rotate off his man, Barea will get a clean layup, and a subconscious part of Beverley will probably feel like he could’ve done more to stop it. He’s helpless.

Like the good defender he is, Beverley does his job and stays put. This is where the trust factor comes in. Howard does slide over because that’s what annual Defensive Player of the Year candidates do, and the ball winds up behind Houston’s bench.

Some corner three attempts are unavoidable: shots that come in transition (when a big runs the floor and forces a guard to protect the rim) or amid the chaos that ensues after an offensive rebound.

What’s funny is Houston should be even better defending it than they already are. Here are two examples where even though Howard’s on the floor (and guarding the freaking ball), Chandler Parsons and Harden feel the need to over help.

Now seems like a good time to point out that Houston’s opponent’s shoot less than 30% from the corner when Harden is not playing. That’s 3000 miles from being a coincidence.

The Rockets do this type of thing far too often, which partly explains why they’re still above league average in corner threes allowed. But still, their overall improvement from last year is absolutely incredible, and should only get better as Omer Asik returns to form (count me among the four other people who believe Houston will keep him, and that a Howard/Asik frontcourt will have its revenge in the playoffs).

Houston’s corner three defense went from second worst to second best. Howard and Beverley are two contributors who should receive thanks (Beverley for helping limit dribble penetration, which keeps promising drive and kick situations to a minimum), but the overall group has bought into the idea that in order to actually win a playoff series this season, they’ll need to make offenses uncomfortable.

The coaches treated corner three defense as a priority in training camp. It appears the players were listening.

Michael Pina writes for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Sports On Earth, Bleacher Report, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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9) Robert Covington (Last week: 10)

27 seconds of action towards the end of Wednesday night’s victory over Phoenix. That’s Robert Covington’s badge for entry on this week’s list, though it’d be nice to mention he was named a D-League All-Star on Monday.

8) Omri Casspi (Last week: 9)

Casspi can be really fun, particularly when he’s moving up the floor with a live dribble, flanked by two teammates. He generally makes the right decision in these situations, and most of the time that decision is to pass. He’s so unselfish, even his perfectly-timed cuts into the paint feel more like assists than baskets after he bails out a teammate who either lost his dribble or is about to be double-teamed.

Unfortunately, he can’t be counted on for more than six or seven points a game at this point, and defenses are starting to smile whenever he launches a three. But the Rockets generally play better on both ends when he’s out there. He seems like such a pleasure to have as a teammate.

7) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 7)

I really don’t enjoy writing about a player’s “confidence” because who the hell knows what a guy’s thinking except the guy, and even then, sometimes, the answers aren’t easily identifiable. But Donatas Motiejunas had several post-touches midway through the shot clock against Phoenix and instead of making the move he’s capable of in single coverage, he opted to pass out and force Houston to scramble for a good look elsewhere.

Motiejunas post-ups aren’t the most desirable shot in the world, but it’d be nice to see him take what the defense is giving. And when Alex Len is guarding him 10-feet from the basket, it’s a sign that the defense is giving him an opportunity to score.

6) Patrick Beverley (Last week: 8)

He went scoreless against the Cavaliers, missing all five shots while pointing nearly all his focus on Kyrie Irving instead. Against the Suns he was more aggressive on offense, and still managed to stick with Goran Dragic and Leandro Barbosa on the other end.

Beverley finished that game with eight points in 31 minutes, but his five assists were something to marvel at. On one play midway through the third quarter he drove away from a high screen, fooling his man and forcing help defenders off teammates as he raced toward the rim.

Chandler Parsons was the lucky recipient of Beverley’s pinpoint kickout, and Houston ended the possession with a wide open three-pointer. It’s all gravy when Beverley creates like this. He’s probably the most overlooked player on the team, and when his three-pointers are opening up driving lanes all over the court, the defense is in humongous trouble. Containing Dwight Howard and James Harden is enough (not to mention Parsons). When Beverley is active the Rockets are a complete and total nightmare.

5) James Harden (Last week: 6) 

When evaluating James Harden, one must acknowledge that the points will always be there. (It’s almost impossible for them not to be. When the final horn sounds Harden will have his 23 points on 15 shots. It’s clockwork.

They can’t be taken for granted—points will always be important—but they also can’t overwhelm the senses.

He scored 51 points in this week’s two games. Those points are appreciated, but he’s hijacking more and more of his team’s possessions with insane isolations that have no business in an NBA offense.

Here’s one example from Wednesday night.

On the very next play he did the exact same thing. No other Rockets touched the ball.

Harden is such an incredible passer, and for him not to capitalize on that gift is a shame. Superstars aren’t superstars because they make scoring look simple, they’re superstars because they make it look simple for their teammates.

To be as fair as possible, Harden’s in a difficult position right now. The team’s offense revolves entirely around a dominant center who demands low post touches that, I’m sure, have the potential to take everyone else out of rhythm. Harden still leads the way in usage percentage, but his scoring opportunities aren’t the same as last year. Maybe he feels he needs to insert himself in the game’s flow another way, but the fit isn’t right for shots like the one above.

For Harden to fill the space that remains between his current state and his eventual ceiling, he needs to eliminate those random dribble dribble dribble dribble shoot possessions altogether.

While we’re here, his defense on Ish Smith, and Leandro Barbosa was borderline bench worthy:

Harden also lost track of Gerald Green over and over again through screens in the half-court. So yeah, defense is still a problem.

4) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 3)

How about that triple-double against Cleveland? Just an awesome performance from Lin, who notched 15 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in just under 30 minutes of action. He’s been fantastic for quite a while now, and continues to excel as a change-of-pace option off the bench. Good things tend to happen when Lin drives to the basket.

Defensively he had trouble with Goran Dragic, either getting beat in transition, dropping too low on high screens, or fouling to prevent penetration. Considering Dragic has done this to just about every opposing point guard in the league all season, this isn’t that big a deal.

3) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 1)

Parsons was benched for the final 20 minutes of Houston’s win over Cleveland. Reason being: porous defense. This is nothing new. Parsons has made mistakes on that end all season long, primarily as a rotating defender on the perimeter and guarding pick-and-rolls. How he bounced back against the Suns (on offense) was fantastic.

In a game-high 41 minutes he had 19 points, seven rebounds, and six assists. He looked for his own shot in most of the pick-and-rolls he ran, and missed only four of his 12 field goal attempts. That pump fake remains in mint condition.

2) Terrence Jones (Last week: 4)

“The T.J.” is when someone blocks a jumper, runs down the court, catches a pass, and dunks it all in one smooth, well-choreographed motion. This is also no longer the most impressive part of Terrence Jones’ game. 

He was a flawless monster in the first quarter against Phoenix, taking over just about every inch of the floor. For lack of a better word (though I doubt there is one), the performance was imperialistic. He took what he wanted, when he wanted it, blocking shots, running the floor, showing precise vision in transition, scoring coast to coast, throwing alley-oop passes, finishing with both hands in the post, sliding over to box out Dwight Howard’s man whenever the big fella drifted to block a shot.

It was all so wonderful to watch. I wrote a couple weeks ago that Jones might be playing himself out of Houston as the team’s primary trade chip, but I now believe the exact opposite to be true. Who knows how good a player he’ll be next year and the year after that? They’d be crazy to deal him.

1) Dwight Howard (Last week: 2)

Howard has had moments of pure domination against just about every center he’s squared off against this season (except Kendrick Perkins). But what he did to poor Suns rookie Alex Len was on another level of command. With Jeff Hornacek refusing to double Howard in the post (a strategy that once co-aligned with common sense, but could be out of vogue sooner than later), Houston’s center went to work over and over again, with enough time to make a move, gather himself, and finish at the rim with no resistance. It was embarrassing.

He finished that game with an efficient 34 points and 14 rebounds. Not everybody will look as overmatched as Len and Plumlee did, but there’s a shift coming in the way teams will have to start guarding Dwight. He’s too good down there, making free-throws (18-for-26 this week) and getting better in nearly every facet of the game.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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During a recent nationally televised broadcast on ESPN between the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets, Jeff Van Gundy went on one of his signature mini-rants about Asik’s spotty playing time:

Van Gundy: [Omer Asik] is basically holding the Houston Rockets hostage because he is not starting. I don’t care what anyone says, he’s still not unable to play and it’s wrong. So much of this game is mental. Asik was one of my favorite players because of his defense and rebounding ability, but if you’re not mentally right, you can be of no help.

Breen: And that’s a question mark with Bynum.

JVG: Exactly. Now it’s a question mark with Asik. Play for your team, play for your teammates. It’s been three months.

This was the first time I can remember hearing anyone publicly acknowledge what’s felt so obvious these past two months, but before we go there let’s break down three possible explanations for Asik’s absence.

1) He’s perfectly fine and purposefully sitting games out to force his way from Houston in one of the least professional ways possible.

2) The Rockets aren’t playing him for fear of a serious injury occurring before they can find a suitable trade offer.

3) Asik is actually hurt.

Speculating on someone else’s tolerance for pain is always dicey and rarely a good idea. But putting all his general unhappiness aside for a second, for Asik—a player who’d missed zero games heading into this season—to sit just over two months with a thigh bruise after demanding several trades is cause for inquiry at the very least.

His absence is suspicious in a way that totally makes sense, but it’s also possible he physically can’t play. I’ve never bruised my thigh and don’t know how badly it hurts. It sounds like the opposite of pleasant.

That said, the three scenarios listed above are the clearest and most probable. This is far from a witch hunt. We have context and all speculation is rational. There are few facts to support any one over the other, but none qualify as a conspiracy theory.

After an incredible breakout season that saw him grab more rebounds than anybody in the entire league last year—most of them in traffic and even more obtained well over seven feet off the ground—Asik was deflated when Dwight Howard was given a max contract to play his position on his team.

That’s understandable in your world or mine. But it’s laughable in professional sports. Asik felt disrespected by the same team that signed him to a mammoth $25 million offer sheet in June 2012. Before Howard handpicked the Rockets, the team was happily willing to fork over approximately $15 million next season ($8.3 million cap hit) for a big man who’s steadier than a dial tone, and somehow less interesting.

He’s a man of his time, truly appreciated for all the non-traditional box score goodness he brings to the table every night. All being grateful for his impact requires is research and two eye balls. But that contract was always part bargain, part albatross depending, frankly, on how often you watched Asik play.

It’s indisputable that Houston would be a better team if Asik pitched in every once in a while. But if he’s actually sitting games out as a means to hold the same team hostage that gave him a life-changing offer sheet before he proved himself capable of living up to it 30 minutes every night, then there’s something seriously wrong here.

If the case, Asik used to be one of my favorite players, too.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Omer Asik: The Unsightly Obstacle appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

11) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 10) 

One minute played. Zero everything on the stat sheet.

10) Robert Covington (Last week: 11)

The rookie jacked up four three-pointers in garbage time against the Memphis Grizzlies, making two. That’s great news! Not so great news is how open he was on one of them.

9) Omri Casspi (Last week: 6)

Casspi shot 22.2% from the floor and 42.9% from the free-throw line this week. Once again his playing time was spotty. There shouldn’t be such an obvious correlation between these two sentences, but there is. Casspi only plays well when granted big minutes. Weird but true.

8) Patrick Beverley (Last week: 4)

Tough week offensively for Patrick Beverley, whose numbers were comparable to Aaron Brooks’, despite Brooks playing about 15 fewer minutes per game. Beverley shot 28.9% from the floor, and both Houston’s offense and defense were better when he sat.

7) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 8)

Pleasant news alert! The numbers indicate Donatas Motiejunas made Houston better on defense this week! Some of this is hopeful and nice, but it’s also relative to how the Rockets played when Kevin McHale chose to go super small (playing James Harden at power forward when Zach Randolph is on the floor isn’t the best call). Motiejunas is tall, and so he helped.

6) James Harden (Last week: 2)

His lowest appearance of the season, James Harden appeared in two games this week and didn’t look himself in either. He had 13 assists against the Grizzlies on Friday night—his most since joining the Rockets—but went 2-for-11 from the field in a one point loss.

Houston dropped both games Harden played in and won both he missed. It’s ultimately a meaningless tidbit of information, but still doesn’t look very good. With Harden in a flowery shirt and navy blazer, the Rockets scored 18.5 more points per 100 possessions than when he wore a red basketball jersey. Those two performances were against a banged up San Antonio Spurs squad that lost Manu Ginobili mid-game, and the defensively inept Dallas Mavericks, so take them with a grain of salt.

5) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 9)

Brooks logged 55 minutes through three games last week. In that time the Rockets scored an insane 121.4 points per 100 possessions. A lot of his playing time came because of Harden’s injury, but Brooks made a solid case for regular minutes in the future. He shot 46.2% from behind the three-point line, giving the Rockets a capable scorer off the bench and helping them fill a widening hole. (Since Jan.1, Houston ranks 22nd in 3-point percentage.)

4) Terrence Jones (Last week: 5)

Terrence Jones is doing special things, everyone. He’s slowly developing effective moves in the post, and broke them out against Dirk Nowitzki and the Mavericks. If he can become a reliable option down low Houston’s starting lineup might be the best in basketball before the season’s over.

Jones averaged 13.5 points on over 50% shooting from the floor this week, but struggled badly at the free-throw line. Hopefully that doesn’t become a lingering long-term issue.

3) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 7)

I wrote at greater length about Jeremy Lin yesterday, mostly focusing on why his skill-set/contract may not suit Houston’s long-term needs. A lot of people disagreed on Twitter, which is fine, but let it be known (as I said in the article) that I like Lin and think he’s a nifty player.

Lin’s play is a good barometer for how Houston’s doing on the whole; it’d be nice if he were more consistent. He was extremely effective scoring in transition in the two games Houston played without James Harden.

2) Dwight Howard (Last week: 1)

Howard absolutely abused Sam Dalembert yet again, forcing the Dallas Mavericks to double from the top whenever he got it in the post. He was impressive turning, finding, and passing to open teammates throughout that game (minus a few hiccups).

Thanks to Hack-a-Dwight, Howard also sparked a 345 minute second half against the San Antonio Spurs. (There’s a solid chance the Rockets would’ve lost that game had it not been for the stream of intentional fouls summoned by Gregg Popovich.) Howard drew nine personal fouls per game this week, and resumed his status as a hypothetical MVP candidate.

1) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 3)

Chandler Parsons can make a complicated game look so simple. This week he led Houston in scoring with 19.3 points per game on 45.9% shooting, showing off so much more than an ability to heat up behind the three-point line.

SPEAKING of the three-point line, as I’m sure you’re well aware, Parsons set an NBA record that should stand for a very long time. Not only did he make 10 threes in 24 available minutes, but they all came in a row! Stupefying. It’s like a street performer who believes nobody appreciates his chainsaw juggling until he sets them on fire, too.

And what happens when you make 10 straight threes in a half, upping your season average to a career-best 39.5%? Lots and lots of this:

There are weaknesses, of course, but when he’s aggressive on offense, working an effective in-between game that keeps the defense off balance, Parsons’ shortcomings on the other end are almost acceptable.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

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Lin lost his spot in the starting lineup but the presumption was he’d be a little better than last year, thanks to fewer responsibilities in a role more suited to boost his skill-set. He entered December shooting nearly 50% from the floor and 40.3% from deep, commanding Houston’s second unit with fearless drives to the basket and unstoppable pick-and-rolls with Dwight Howard and Omer Asik (remember him? Good times!).

There were no legitimate criticisms to be had about his performance. Over the past few weeks, things have been less…better.

Lin is missing wide open three-pointers on a regular basis, forcing drives into the teeth of the defense, and scoring nearly all his points in transition. In his defense, Lin was yanked in and out of the starting lineup with various parts of his body aching at any given moment, but since New Year’s Day he’s made just 26.2% of his three-pointers (out of a mushy 42 attempts). Lin’s per game numbers shouldn’t be better than last year, but his jumper is a critical weapon in Houston’s offense; for it to stall out is very troublesome.

On a team built around a dominant low-post scorer and his killer pick-and-roll partner, all members of the supporting cast need to be snipers. Lin can be as dynamic off the dribble as he wants, but if defenses don’t respect his shot everything and everybody else is affected negatively. Most players (such as Jeremy Lin) have a difficult time functioning with the ball when the defense is one giant Weeping willow across the paint.

They need space and room to operate and breathe. What you need then are sharpshooters, and without falling too deep down the rabbit hole that is Houston’s lack of capable three-point shooting, let’s just say Lin appeared to be apart of the solution earlier this winter. Today that’s uncertain, and the more he plays, the less his game looks suited for the half-court rigors of a playoff series. Houston’s net rating with Lin beside the four regular starters is 8.1 points per 100 possessions worse than when Patrick Beverley is in there.

Lin’s effective play earlier this season also diverted attention away from his unsightly contract—the exact same deal Asik, a better player who failed to draw much interest on the trade market earlier this season, signed. Right now Lin’s deal looks worse than ever. He holds an $8.3 million cap hit next season, but whichever team has him will have to pay just under twice that figure in actual money. ESPN.com’s Amin Elhassan analyzed a hypothetical trade Houston could make with the Toronto Raptors to land former Rocket and legitimate All-Star Kyle Lowry, and yesterday our own Rahat Huq expanded on the idea. Lin would be the biggest name going out in that deal.

This trade probably won’t happen, but it does speak to where the Rockets are, and just how expendable Lin really is. He’s far from the worst point guard in the league, but Houston is in an extremely difficult spot as a franchise. They’re trying to go from capped out pseudo-contender to champion, the most difficult leap in the league.

In two years Dwight Howard and James Harden are essentially the only players guaranteed money, and Chandler Parsons could very well join them with a lucrative/deserved long-term contract. (Terrence Jones and Donatas Motiejunas have team options, and Beverley is up for a qualifying offer. None of the three are guaranteed to be around by then.)

Recent struggles aside, it’s difficult to envision Lin as a heavy contributor on that team under the type of contract he’s sure to draw on the open market.

His skills are evident. Few guards in the league are better taking the ball from their own free-throw line to the opposing rim. But he’s inconsistent with pronounced weaknesses. Lin can still throw a mean no-look pass, but his overall court vision is patchy. He’ll miss cutting teammates on drives to the basket, making him somewhat too predictable coming off a pick-and-roll. All that said, he’s unquestionably the team’s second best passer, and has a better effective field goal percentage than Harden.

With Dwight Howard behind him on defense, Lin doesn’t need to be Tony Allen. But despite having lateral quickness and fast hands, his play on that end appears to be getting worse instead of better. There have been no improvements defending guards in the pick-and-roll, and his effort heading back in transition can at times be inexcusable.

Here he faces the Memphis Grizzlies with an unenviable task: contain the fabulous Mike Conley Jr.

Some of Lin’s problems aren’t an isolated disease, but instead a team-wide epidemic. Last weekend there were several mismatches forced on Lin (and a few other Rocket guards) by the coaching staff. Lin’s already a poor defender, and when Houston goes small (aka without Howard) things get much, much worse.

Here’s a strange situation from the same game. This isn’t even Lin’s fault, and his role in the play ultimately proved inconsequential. But it should still be highlighted for no other reason than to point out how ludicrous some of Houston’s lineups were in both those excruciating losses.

The Rockets missed James Harden in their past two games, but both were still wins against the San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks. Lin was a fantastic replacement in the starting lineup.

From night to night Lin can be a dazzling force. The way he finishes at the rim—so often amid utter chaos—is hypnotizing. But as an integral piece on a team trying to win the title, he doesn’t deserve his price tag. Houston would love all the cap space they can find trying to build a championship team around their two center pieces. A trade over these next few weeks is unlikely, but Lin and Houston will part ways sooner than later.

Michael Pina flips cars at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post What’s wrong with Jeremy Lin? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

12) Isaiah Canaan (Last week: 12)

Canaan averaged two points per minute this week. An outstanding number. (Related: he played one minute.)

11) Robert Covington (Last week: N/A)

Robert Covington debuts on this power ranking with a brief appearance in all three of this week’s games. He scored the first five points of his career against Sacramento. Congratulations on both achievements, Robert!

10) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 10)

With Chandler Parsons healthy, Brewer spent most of the week on the bench. He had 0 points, 0 assists, 0 blocks, 0 steals, and one rebound in 10 total minutes.

9) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 7)

Similar to Brewer, Brooks is all but out of the rotation now that Jeremy Lin and Patrick Beverley are healthy. But should he be? Brooks might be the second or third best three-point shooter Houston has, especially off the dribble, where he’s shown an ability to create his own shot (something Francisco Garcia definitely can not do).

It’d be nice to see Kevin McHale find space for Brooks in extra tiny lineups. He averaged just 3.3 points per game this week.

8) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 9)

Donatas Motiejunas averaged 5.7 fouls per 24 minutes this week, disqualifying himself from both starts in place of an injured Terrence Jones. It’s clear, however, that he can play professional basketball on the offensive end. He’s a serious threat from the corner and makes smart interior passes. He’ll be in the league for a very long time because of those skills, but he’s still a step slow on almost all back line defensive rotations. Gotta love that effort, though.

7) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 5)

Early in the fourth quarter against Portland, Trail Blazers rookie C.J. McCollum had back to back scoring opportunities in transition, beating Jeremy Lin on both. Thomas Robinson was called for offensive interference on the first, and McCollum scored a layup on the second.

Lin isn’t as effective on offense when those free coast to coast paths to the basket tighten up. He shot just 36% from the floor this week.

6) Omri Casspi (Last week: 8)

CASSPI BACK! Sort of. This was his finest week in quite some time. In three games (29 minutes per) he averaged 13.7 points on 48.6% shooting, and 8.0 rebounds. The Rockets were an insane 20.4 points per 100 possessions better than their opponent when Casspi took the floor and the defense (of all things) was a disaster when he sat. The lesson, as always, is to PLAY CASSPI as much as possible.

5) Terrence Jones (Last week: 1)

Jones cracks the top-five despite missing two games because he blew fire from his mouth against the poor Milwaukee Bucks, scoring 36 points on 70% shooting from the floor. For more on why Jones is a special dude, I wrote about him yesterday.

4) Patrick Beverley (Last week: N/A)

The most unexpected stat related to Houston Rockets basketball this week: when Patrick Beverley played (62 minutes in two games—he missed the Bucks) the Rockets outscored opponents by 44.0 points per 100 possessions. 44 freaking points.

The Rockets were outscored by 7.6 points per 100 possessions when he sat. This all includes a 2-for-9 shooting performance against the Sacramento Kings (where he also had six rebounds and eight assists).

Beverley has his good days and his bad, but when he’s wreaking havoc in all the ways only he knows how, the Rockets are a damn good basketball team.

3) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 4)

Houston should consider switching on every single pick-and-roll where Parsons’ man is the screener. Seriously. It isn’t ideal, but the consistent gutting that takes place whenever Parsons hedges or traps has to stop. That being said, he was phenomenal with the ball all week, averaging nearly 20 points (on 50% shooting) and 10 rebounds in 114 total minutes.

2) James Harden (Last week: 3)

What Harden did to the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday night was brutal, weaving up and down the court for baskets at the rim whenever he wanted them. Michael Malone’s time-outs were his team’s best defense, and Harden steamrolled through those too. Here’s his shot chart from that game.

Harden averaged “only” 22.7 points per game this week, but his off the ball defense was better than normal.

1) Dwight Howard (Last week: 2)

Howard wasn’t named an All-Star starter even though he’s clearly one of the five best players in the Western Conference. Oh well. He made a three this week. That was cool. He also displayed some of his most disruptive defense against the pick-and-roll, and showed how intelligent he can be on that end of the floor.

Here are a few photos that will show what I’m talking about. All were taken from Houston’s impressive win against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Rockets set themselves up for failure in the play’s opening seconds, when Parsons and Howard switched. It ends with Batum knocking down a three from the corner. Here’s the same sequence from later in the quarter.

See the difference? Portland tried to run the same play but Howard sniffed it out and made a super smart adjustment. Great play from a great player.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 13 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Jones has also notched a double-double in four of his last five games, scoring 25 points to go along with eight rebounds and six blocks in the one that missed out. He’s an omnipotent, versatile, athletic compliment who’s been asked to back up Dwight Howard at center and guard some larger power forwards in the post. He hardly ever turns the ball over and never complains about anything. The natural follow up question here would of course be: Is Jones playing himself out of Houston?

Earlier this season it felt like Jones was more a product of his environment than a beastly, developing individual talent. And as a scorer some of that’s still true. He scored 36 points against the Milwaukee Bucks last Saturday, but according to mySynergySports, 11 of his 14 made field goals came via a cut into open space, a put back off an offensive rebound, or in transition.

He’s far from the stage where Kevin McHale is calling plays to get him open, but that’s perfectly fine. As the fourth option in a starting lineup that already has two All-Stars and a budding third, right now the Rockets need Jones to be efficient in opportunities others create for him. Not the other way around.

And efficient he has been. Only seven players in the entire league average more points per possession in transition, and he’s shooting 65.1% on cuts. He might be the most athletic player on the team—it’s tough to name 10 guys who’re able to do more with their body, especially above the rim, in the entire league.

Jones has fallen back to earth after starting the season on flames from behind the three-point line. He’s now down to 28.3% after shooting 47.6% in November. But this hasn’t been to much of an issue so far.

Jones makes up for it with fantastic timing away from the ball; he does a wonderful job flashing into open space off Howard post-ups and high pick-and-rolls that draw his man’s attention (which is a vast majority of Houston’s offense).

Here’s his shot chart.

The more he plays the better he gets, opening the possibility for two different futures Daryl Morey will choose from.

He can either acknowledge Houston probably isn’t winning a title as currently constructed this season, stay the course, hold onto Jones and let this Rockets core grow together, take their postseason lumps and improve around the margins. (This scenario is independent of whatever the Rockets get for Omer Asik, who remains the number one trade asset on the roster, if they trade him.)

Or he can do Daryl Morey things and package Jones in a deal to upgrade some other part of the roster. This is the less patient option, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. If you’re of the thought that Houston should “go all in” and try to win a championship every year until James Harden and/or Howard are no longer elite players, then moving the second most attractive asset to get better wouldn’t be that much of a sacrifice.

The decision is ultimately based on two things: how well Jones fits beside Houston’s franchise center, and how high his new-ish ceiling stands. So far, so good on issue number one. The offense has scored 1.6 more points per 100 possessions than their average in the 818 minutes Jones has shared the court with Howard. (Interestingly enough, Jones’ field goal percentage is actually 4% higher when Howard’s on the bench.)

The Rockets’ defense has stayed the same with both out there, which is to say they’re a top-10 outfit. Jones isn’t perfect on defense (he can’t protect the rim—yet—and tends to get bullied in the post) but he’s improving as a pick-and-roll defender, finally learning how to use his speed and length as an advantage.

At the rate Jones is getting better, even if Houston fails this postseason they could come back next year with Howard, Harden, Chandler Parsons, their 2014 first round pick, whatever can be had for Omer Asik (again, if he’s not dealt before the deadline), and be a better basketball team.

They’re incredibly young, have spent this season battling myriad injuries, and are still 29-15. They’ll be better next year even if no trades are made. But “better” doesn’t mean they’ll be good enough to win a title.

Trading Jones would be an interesting proposition. If the Rockets really wanted to, they could package him with Asik and their 2014 draft pick to create an incredibly enticing bundle. I’m just not sure anyone out there is willing to offer anything substantial in return.

The good news is that there’s no pressure to do anything. Jones is on a cheap rookie scale deal for the next two seasons. He’s very good, with a skill-set that fits inside Houston’s scheme on both ends.

Jones could very well be on his way to making the same developmental leap Parsons did. Who knows. He’s been Houston’s most pleasant surprise either way.

Michael Pina has written for Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Is Terrence Jones playing himself out of Houston? appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

12) Isaiah Canaan (Last week: 12)

Canaan picked up three fouls in nine minutes of action against the New Orleans Pelicans, but saw some time in the fourth quarter of a close game. That’s nice. His one shot was a contested three that bricked off the back rim. We’ve yet to see much from the rookie.

11) Greg Smith (Last week: 9)

Smith played 24 minutes in two games this week and in those 24 minutes the Rockets were stomped on, allowing 116.9 points per 100 possessions. This assessment is harsh, but it’s difficult to evaluate a player who hasn’t been able to stay on the floor. And I really like Greg Smith! I think he can help!

10) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 10)

Brewer is the epitome of a player who murders offense. Except this week the exact opposite happened. No thanks to Brewer, who shot 25% from the floor in 47 total minutes, but the Rockets were hyper-efficient in that time he played. Brewer’s 11.5 net rating was best on the team.

9) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 11)

Thanks to Greg Smith’s injury and Dwight Howard’s penchant for foul trouble, Donatas Motiejunas was finally unleashed this week, and the results (on offense) were encouraging. He was Mayor of the Corner early on against Oklahoma City and flashed a few pretty passes in the paint as well.

The Rockets love running a play where Motiejunas comes high to screen for the point guard (usually Aaron Brooks) then, instead of rolling towards the paint, drifts to the wing and immediately sets a screen for a scorer (usually James Harden). It’s a pretty cool secondary action that causes defenses to scramble a bit. Houston ran it against the Hawks and Motiejunas got an open look at the rim.

8) Omri Casspi (Last week: 7)

Most Incredible Fact of the Week: Omri Casspi only played 12 more minutes than Ronnie Brewer. On first glance it cannot be real. But sadly it is. Once a vital member of Houston’s bench, for whatever reason Casspi’s falling out of favor. He scored zero points on zero shots in just six minutes against the Thunder last night. It should be mentioned that Casspi shot 62.5% from downtown last week (on eight attempts, but still).

7) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 8)

I have more confidence in a three by Aaron Brooks than just about anybody on the team right now. He nailed three bigs ones against the Thunder and was over 40% on threes for the week. He turns it over as much as he finds someone for an assist, though, which isn’t the best attribute to be found in a backup point guard.

6) Francisco Garcia (Last week: 5)

Another week, another highlight reel of inconsistent shooting from Francisco Garcia. In five games this week, Garcia averaged 2.2 (!!!!) points per 17 minutes. He still doesn’t contribute anywhere else on the floor. Now midway through the season, Garcia’s minutes aren’t deserved.

5) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 4)

He shot 14.3% from the three-point line this week, but still managed to average a solid dozen points per contest. Lin had an extremely rough go against the Thunder and Reggie Jackson, scoring just six points in a little under 25 minutes of action. His previous four outings were impressive, though. He feasted on Jordan Crawford and the Boston Celtics and laid out a sleeping bag on the free-throw line against the Wizards.

4) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 6)

I’d like to use this space to ask a question. Which player do you believe will make more money as an unrestricted free agent: Chandler Parsons or Lance Stephenson? The similarities between the two nearly end with where they were drafted, but both commandeer second units with a confidence and superiority that helps give their teams a boost.

(I personally think the answer is Stephenson—he’s more athletic, younger, and seemingly has higher upside, but it’s close.)

3) James Harden (Last week: 1)

2) Dwight Howard (Last week: 2)

Before last night’s loss to the Thunder, the Houston Rockets outscored their opponents by 17.3 points per 100 possessions in the 183 minutes Dwight Howard played this week. Their defense, especially, was “best in the league” dominant.

Unfortunately, that number feels more a case of small sample size theatre. He still averaged 18 and nine on the week, but Howard wandered through extended stretches in three of the weeks five games.

He tortured his former teammate, Marcin Gortat, to within an inch of his life in Washington, and that was good to see, but Howard’s overall energy and effort levels were severely lacking against the Atlanta Hawks, Oklahoma City Thunder, and New Orleans Pelicans. He struggled with when the right time was to pick up a foul, and when the right time was to back off. It felt like he chose wrong repeatedly, and it cost him.

1) Terrence Jones (Last week: 3)

This week, averaging 15.6 points and 11.6 rebounds in five games, Terrence Jones made me think long and hard about how good he can be. He’s vulnerable on the pick-and-roll, and isn’t much of a rim protector even though he has the wingspan, athleticism, and instincts to thrive there. But Jones has been so impressive in so many different areas. A ton of his production comes off action by his teammates, but Jones is also showing tiny little flashes that make you think he’ll someday be a legitimate option. (Those running right-handed floaters, for instance.)

He’s not a bad shooter from the outside and doesn’t look completely lost on drives to the hoop after he blows past a closeout. Away from the ball is where he’s used most often, and if he understood spacing dynamics a bit more Houston’s starting lineup would be one of the league’s most unstoppable.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 12 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Houston’s fallen to the Sacramento Kings (twice), been blown out horribly by the Oklahoma City Thunder (sans Russell Westbrook) and the Indiana Pacers, and lost to a hobbled Atlanta Hawks team that bravely scrapped 83 points together, all in the past month.

They’re far from bad, though, sporting the league’s fourth best offense (including its third best team True Shooting percentage) and 10th best defense. Some of their struggles in individual contests can be explained by the myriad lingering injuries to key players like Jeremy Lin, Chandler Parsons, James Harden, Patrick Beverley, Omer Asik (yes, he’s a key player), and Greg Smith.

The one constant, however, has been a revitalized Dwight Howard. Once again he’s the very best his position has to offer, and to date he’s been Houston’s Most Valuable Player. Howard’s the rock on 14 of Houston’s 15 most utilized five-man units, and over the past couple months he’s unleashed a devastating (and surprisingly varied) post game.

But it’s on the other end where Howard’s most had his work cut out for him. On some nights the three-time Defensive Player of the Year appears to be headed for a fourth trophy, while on others there are critical, preventable lapses (mostly not his fault) that send Houston into a momentary spiral.

The Rockets’ overall defense is top-10 with Howard on the floor and about average when he’s off. He plays a ton, too. Kevin McHale refuses to remove Howard from the game in Hack-a-Howard situations and usually lets him play through threatening times early on after he’s picked up multiple fouls.

When defending pick-and-rolls Howard sags back into the paint, either forcing a mid-range jumper from the guard or a pass back to the screener, also for a mid-range jumper. Sometimes, if Howard closes out hard, his man will try to take him off the dribble. Due to Howard’s awesome ability to slide while keeping his hands above his head this rarely works out well for whoever has the ball.

But most often he’s perfectly content receding back to the paint and waiting for the rebound. Letting someone take an open shot isn’t the best strategy in the world, but there are much worse options. (When Howard’s on the floor Houston’s opponents are 6% more accurate from the mid-range, according to NBA.com. They also attempt shots from that zone 4.4% more often.)

His unwillingness to leave the paint for fear of absolutely no Rockets protecting the rim or grabbing a rebound is somewhat fair, but that doesn’t make it helpful. At least a couple times this season there’ve been moments where Howard won’t go after a loose ball that’s literally rolling on the ground a few feet outside the paint.

It’s a trust issue, and teams with bigs who can knock down an outside shot (New York Knicks, Indiana Pacers, Dallas Mavericks, etc.) have given Houston issues.

Another spot where Howard’s presence, or lack thereof, is felt is in the corner. A serious area of weakness for them last season, opponents are shooting 34.4% from the corner when Howard plays and 35.9% overall. Only the Thunder, Mavericks, and Pacers defend it better than that first number, and the second places them seventh in the league.

Things turn into The Purge when Howard heads to the bench. There are no laws, no discipline, and all semblance of morality and human decency is abandoned in the worst way possible (maybe forget that last point). Every opponent turns into Shane Battier circa Game 7 of the 2013 NBA Finals, and shots fly into the hoop at a 40% clip when launched from the corners; good for 19th overall.

Some of this is due to an increase in offense rebounds. But most of the time Houston’s players are simply too concerned with protecting the paint. The rate of corner threes attempted doesn’t change when Howard sits, but the quality of the shot is drastically improved.

In both pictures every Rocket is either in the paint or a foot away.

Ironically, the one area where Howard’s made his mark as an elite player is also Houston’s greatest concern: the restricted area, where opposing teams connect on 61.3% of their shot attempts, making Houston one of the 10 worst teams in the league.

Howard isn’t lackluster as an individual defending shots at the rim, and a lot of these struggles are more symptoms of Houston’s still-hilariously-awful perimeter defense than anything else.

The Rockets will consistently miss a rotation when Howard’s the help defender on 1-3 or 1-4 pick-and-rolls involving wings or power forwards. It’s a painful weakness that smart teams will easily exploit over and over again in a seven game playoff series.

Here we have Parsons and Beverley guarding a 1-4 high pick-and-roll against George Hill and David West. Not the smoothest “hedger” in the world, Parsons bangs into his teammate as West lumbers free into the lane. Beverley manages to cut Hill off at the elbow but West is still wide open. Why? Worried about leaving Paul George open on the perimeter, Harden doesn’t slide far enough over from the weak side to muddle West’s progress.

Why doesn’t Howard do something about it? Well, he’s busy guarding this guy named Roy Hibbert. In a world where God is a Rockets fan, Parsons would take Harden’s responsibility out on the perimeter and the two would switch. It isn’t the best situation—there’s a good chance Parsons’ miscue at the beginning screwed them from the start—but nothing is worse than an open layup. Had Harden everyone rotated properly they wouldn’t have given one up.

Houston’s frontcourt personnel is another reason why they’re wet toilet paper near the basket. Howard has zero teammates who can really hold their own defensively in the post. Smith and Asik can, obviously, but both horrifically devastate Houston’s offensive spacing when paired beside Howard on the other end. (Also, at least one of them is always hurt.)

As hard as they try, Omri Casspi and Terrence Jones are far too small to bang down low. Howard will leave his assignment (and his feet) to help, but when he doesn’t get the block his man is left waiting to grab the offensive rebound for a point blank put back.

Teams have also done a good job attacking Houston quickly, before Howard can get back to where he’s most comfortable. Most of the time they use a big up top to direct traffic.

Here’s Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut lobbing a pass over Howard’s fingertips to David Lee, who has Jones completely sealed. See Harden on the weak side block? Think he slides over to take the charge? Haha. Of course not.

As you can see a lot of this isn’t Howard’s fault. But a few times this season he’s made the mistake of fronting his man in the post, or coming up far too high on the pick-and-roll. The consequences of doing so are swift and unpleasant.

Howard’s doing a pretty good job fronting DeMarcus Cousins in the picture above, but if Isaiah Thomas can hit his large teammate with a bounce pass…

…see what happens? Cousins waltzes past Jones for the easy layup.

Howard’s having a phenomenal first season as Houston’s center, but his margin for error is nonexistent playing alongside so many teammates who’re either outmatched or outwitted on the defensive end. Still, as time goes on he’ll need to trust guys who you’d like to think can’t stay incompetent forever.

It was mentioned earlier in this article that Houston’s defense is still average when Howard takes a seat, but those minutes largely come against opposing benches for less than 15 minutes every game. It’s scary to think how far this team would fall if Howard wasn’t there.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Dwight Howard’s defensive impact remains humongous appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

12) Isaiah Canaan (Last week: 10)

The rookie logged a little over 90 seconds of action this week. Aaaaand just about nothing transpired.

11) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 9)

That D-Mo D-League stint I pined for in this space finally happened. Now there’s a very legitimate chance he’s traded sooner than later. What value does Motiejunas have on the market? He’s young, cheap, and offensively skilled. This deserves a deeper look.

10) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 12)

This picture is why Ronnie Brewer can’t play big minutes in the NBA anymore. For some reason (I realize Chandler Parsons was hurt) Kevin McHale started him against the Lakers on Wednesday.

Brewer logged 23 minutes that night, and in those 23 minutes well over a dozen snapshots like the one above could’ve been taken. In the picture, Terrence Jones has the ball beneath the rim, while Brewer’s man, Nick Young, doubles down to assist Pau Gasol in preventing Jones from doing anything productive. Brewer is a boa constrictor to Houston’s spacing. No Laker paid any attention to him whenever Houston had the ball, and it should come as no surprise that he scored zero points.

9) Greg Smith (Last week: N/A)

Greg Smith grabbed one rebound and drew one foul in 10 minutes of action last week. That’s it. But he still gets the nod over Brewer because defenses don’t treat him like Nicholas Brody treated his only son.

8) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 7)

Aaron Brooks has been such an experience this season. From looking washed up, to competent, to vintage, back to washed up, to competent, etc. It’s gotten to the point where I expect every one of his threes to go in, and every one of his drives to end in a turnover.

Speaking of turnovers, Brooks averaged two per game this week. Not really acceptable when his assist average was one. He shot under 30% from the floor but 40%, exactly, from behind the three-point line.

7) Omri Casspi (Last week: 6)

His play is declining in quality as the season goes on, and this week the numbers were brutal, as was his playing time. I wrote more in-depth on Casspi yesterday, so check that out if you haven’t already.

6) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 2)

He sat out the Lakers game with myriad aches and pains, but earlier in the week Parsons was a monster against the New York Knicks. He played 44 minutes (a good chunk guarding Carmelo Anthony), scored 17 points, and grabbed 11 rebounds. I more than enjoyed the suit he wore on the bench Wednesday night.

5) Francisco Garcia (Last week: 8)

Garcia made two shots last week, and both came from behind the three-point line. It was a little strange to see Ronnie Brewer in the starting lineup over him on Wednesday.

4) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 5)

Lin isn’t in a shooting “slump,” per se, but it feels like he isn’t as willing to launch one now as he was earlier in the season. When you can attack the rim like Lin does, stroking it like Reggie Miller isn’t as consequential. Still in the starting lineup while Patrick Beverley nurses his hand, Lin pushed the pace this week. A lot of the time that led to him attempting a shot really close to the basket.

Here’s his shot distribution shot from last week.

It’s only two games. But this isn’t a two-game trend. Lin is obsessed with getting to the rim now more than ever before, even on two-on-one fastbreak situations.

3) Terrence Jones (Last week: 4)

It’s getting to the point where Jones may be Houston’s second best two-way player, behind Howard. He averaged a 10.5 points, 11.0 rebound double-double this week. The jumper was a little bit of a struggle, but more of Jones’ offense is created on his own around the basket. He can leap higher than just about everyone on the court, and he’s getting better using that skill on the glass.

2) Dwight Howard (Last week: 1)

Dwight Howard’s free-throw shooting reared it’s ugly head against the D-Fenders, when Mike D’Antoni opted to do that Hack-a-Howard thing down the stretch of a game L.A. barely had a shot at winning. Still, can’t hurt trying, I guess.

Howard shot 43.3% from the free-throw line last week, averaging a generous 15.0 attempts per game.

Against the Lakers he kept drifting off his man (Gasol) to try and swat shots from the weak side. An un-blocked out Gasol ended up with the rebound more than a couple times. It’s a little bit of a trust issue, and will be so until the Rockets employ a power forward who can hold his own in the post.

1) James Harden (Last week: 2)

During the first half of Wednesday night’s thrashing of Los Angeles, James Harden once again had serious trouble staying with his man off the ball. That man was mostly Jodie Meeks, who, when not on the bench with foul trouble, found himself wide open along the baseline in several instances.

But honestly, I’m burying the lede, because when you’re dropping 75 points in two games sometimes defense doesn’t even matter. Harden eviscerated the Lakers to the tune of 17 third quarter points on Wednesday. He got into the paint at will, knocked down a couple threes and shooting over 60% from the floor.

His 38 points tied a season high and was one more than the 37 he scalded on the Knicks last Friday, another contest he basically took over late.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 11 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

That moment right there is how some people would describe how it felt to watch Omri Casspi play basketball in November. He was incredible, a nightly pleasure twice as enjoyable because nobody expected it. He made 42.9% of his threes that month, and posted a 59.9 True Shooting percentage, good enough to tie Kevin Love for 18th overall right now.

Casspi was so much more than a shooter; almost everything he did was unconsciously brilliant. He passed, ran, dribbled, shot, rebounded, and competed. Houston’s offense scorched the Earth in his 341 minutes of action. But the numbers said something totally insane about the other end of the floor: Houston had the second best defense in the league whenever Casspi the Great played. When he sat the Rockets played down to a Brooklyn Nets/New York Knicks level of atrociousness.

The offense was nice no matter what, sure, but it also scored more points per 48 minutes with Casspi on the court than any other player on the team. He kicked the season off as Houston’s “Break In Case of Emergency” secret weapon of sorts, even if few recognized it while it was going on.

To say Casspi slipped closer to his original expectations in December would be fair. But it’s not like he decomposed in a horrible crash or anything. All he did was stumble. A crash would not translate to successfully converting two thirds of all his attempts in the restricted area, but a slumping three-point shot would qualify as a slip.

He’s still impacting the game everywhere else, but for someone who only gets 20 minutes a night to mark his tree, if Casspi isn’t knocking down threes in an offense designed around the point creation of Dwight Howard and James Harden, then he’s not coming through in what still amounts to one of his foremost offensive responsibilities. (Another pleasant surprise: he’s exceptional when Howard and Harden are both on the bench, according to NBAWowy.)

Casspi signed with the Houston Rockets back on July 16, a few days after the team acquired Dwight Howard. The team’s primary attraction to the player was probably value. Casspi will make about $21,000 more than Chandler Parsons peanuts this season, and has a non-guaranteed second year on his deal that’ll either cost Houston $1.06 million or zero million.

Over the team’s past 10 games Casspi barely shot 40% from the floor. As of late the Rockets are depressing on offense when he plays. They’re scoring a measly 103.6 points per 100 possessions, 7.0 points worse than when the team’s running without him. In the long run offense isn’t where Casspi creates concern. He has such wonderful feel with the ball in his hands in the open floor, knowing when to push with a pass and when to dribble it up himself—it’s not a coincidence that Houston averages 2.0 more points off turnovers with Casspi on the floor. He’s already proven to be so much more than the spot up shooter many people thought Houston was getting.

But defensively? When Howard plays with Casspi the Rockets all perform like they’re wearing jerseys made of Kevlar. The defense is impenetrable. The numbers: 96.6 points per 100 possessions have been allowed by units with Casspi and Howard over the past 10 games. That drops even lower to 94.0 when you add the 24 games before that.

There should be two questions that immediately come to mind: 1) How is this possible, and 2) Why doesn’t Kevin McHale play Casspi more often? Casspi hasn’t been impressive defending the post (opponents are shooting 48.6% on post-ups, according to mySynergySports), but that’s expected. He’s constantly going up against bulkier monsters who outweigh him by more than one or two trips through Wendy’s drive thru.

But he’s disciplined down there. He stays low, doesn’t fall for fakes of any kind, and typically musters enough strength to force his man into a shot over the top and outside the restricted area. Casspi works hard down there, fighting for position. He does a good job denying the ball and making his man work. In the end, that shooting percentage he allows is too high; more problems exist beyond it. Oftentimes Howard will leap over to help Casspi out and try to block his man’s shot. This leaves Howard’s man wide open with first dibs on a possible rebound.

He’s a solid defender on pick-and-rolls though. He can hedge up high then recover back to his man. Here are two clips from the same game that show how versatile Casspi can be out there.

Right now Casspi’s PER, True Shooting percentage, and usage rate are all career highs. The Rockets are obviously better in several numerous and important areas with him on the floor. There are flaws and slumps, but he’s constantly tweaking his own game, in the precious minutes he has, to get things right. (For example: As his struggles behind the three-point line persist, Casspi’s increased the percentage of his shots that come in the restricted area.)

Should he play more? Probably, but it’s tough to rationalize removing Terrence Jones from the floor now that he’s The Terminator. It wouldn’t hurt Kevin McHale to play Jones, Casspi, and Howard together, though. They’ve logged just seven minutes at the same time all season.

Casspi is still an integral member of the team, even if his per game numbers don’t indicate it. He’s fantastic at finding open space when Howard’s posting up, and could be a strong pick-and-pop partner for Harden, Jeremy Lin, or Chandler Parsons this postseason.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Evaluating 34 Games of Omri Casspi appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

Also, there were no rankings last week due to holiday traveling/celebration by yours truly. So, sincerest apologies for that. This week I’ll only be covering Houston’s past three games: A victory over the New Orleans Pelicans, followed by two bad losses against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Sacramento Kings.

11) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 12)

Brewer registered two (count ‘em, two) defensive rebounds in six minutes of action this week. Onward and upward.

10) Isaiah Canaan (Last week: N/A) 

The rookie makes his debut on the Red94 Player Power Rankings by scoring the first four points of his career in garbage time against the Oklahoma City Thunder. The first two were free-throws that bobbled above the rim before falling through. His first field goal came at the expense of Thunder second year forward Perry Jones, who tried but failed to ice a side pick-and-roll. Canaan saw the mistake and drove baseline for a nifty layup. I know very little about this player but have a strange feeling he’ll contribute in a meaningful way at some point this season. 

9) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 11)

He can’t play defense right now, and has yet to display an understanding of how to time a hedge—and control his body—defending the pick-and-roll. He can’t backup Dwight Howard because he can’t do this, he can’t protect the rim, and he isn’t a very good rebounder for someone that tall.

There was a quick two play sequence against the New Orleans Pelicans that pretty much sums up why Motiejunas spends most of his time on the bench. Houston started the second quarter with him on the floor instead of Howard. The Pelicans ran two straight pick-and-rolls with Jason Smith and Tyreke Evans, springing Motiejunas and James Harden into action.

On the first play, Motiejunas extends too far out and fouls Evans.

Moments later the Pelicans run the exact same play, and there appears to be a miscommunication between Harden and Motiejunas.

After setting the screen, Smith rolls towards the paint and Harden shadows him. This decision surprises Motiejunas, who believes he’s supposed to hedge then recover. Harden either thinks the two are switching, or is woefully out of position on purpose (entirely possible).

After hedging on Evans too long, Motiejunas races back to Smith while Harden stays in no-man’s land around the free-throw line. It’s difficult to put all the blame on Motiejunas for this play—which ends with an easy basket by his man—but he could’ve executed it better.  In the 20 minutes Motiejunas graced Houston with his presence this week, the Rockets allowed 125.0 points per 100 possessions, worst on the team.

8) Francisco Garcia (Last week: 5) 

Francisco Garcia shot 12.5% from behind the arc this week, but who cares? He drove baseline past Quincy Acy during the Kings game and scored a layup. GREAT STUFF, SISQO!

7) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 8)

Aaron Brooks continues to do some neat stuff on drives to the basket. More often than not the ball doesn’t go in the hoop, but at least it’s entertaining. After getting called for a travel in the fourth quarter against New Orleans, Brooks slammed the ball against the backboard in truly impressive fashion, earning himself a technical foul and, to me, his most memorable moment in weeks.

6) Omri Casspi (Last week: 6)

Casspi’s offense has waned a bit, but his defense is getting better. He’s now much more stable in the post, pushing back on forwards who outweigh him by 30-plus pounds. Casspi has also looked more comfortable hedging on pick-and-rolls. He slides quickly out on the perimeter then seamlessly recovers back to his man. This was an issue earlier in the year, but last week Casspi was nearly flawless.

5) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 9)

In the absence of Patrick Beverley, Lin ran with the starters this week. He didn’t look very comfortable finding his own shot early on in any of the three games, but as they went on Lin did a fantastic job pushing the pace off missed shots and looking for his own opportunities in transition. During the fourth quarter of Houston’s win over New Orleans he was also amazing from the outside, sinking 73 three-pointers in approximately 25 seconds.

4) Terrence Jones (Last week: 7)

Officially my favorite player on the team, Terrence Jones led Houston with a 56.5% field goal percentage this week. He was effectively a walking double double, and impressed on both ends of the floor with insane blocks and game-turning coast-to-coast runs that left defenses flat-footed and in awe. As athletic as Anthony Davis is (he’ll probably be the best player in the league five years from now), Jones held his own when the two former Kentucky Wildcats squared off. He’s getting better by the week.

3) James Harden (Last week: 2)

He made a season-high five three-pointers against the Kings, but was invisible on the other end all night long. Harden scored 38 points in that contest, two nights after an eight-point egg in Oklahoma City. The three-point shot lingers as a dilemma for both him and the team; I wrote a piece yesterday about how Harden’s trying to compensate by expanding into the mid-range, but he isn’t as dangerous as he can be until those shots from deep start to fall on a regular basis.

It doesn’t feel right being overly critical of a player who’s so fun to watch with the ball, but top-12 players must be held to higher standards than everybody else.

2) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 3) 

It’s kind of crazy how much better Houston’s offense is with Chandler Parsons on the floor. The guy almost never makes mistakes and can do many different things it’s become difficult to keep track of them all, but at the same time writing them out feels cliche.

Parsons sat just 30 minutes this week, and in those 30 minutes the Rockets turned into dysfunctional zombies and shot 31.5% from the floor. Parsons wasn’t perfect though. In Houston’s two losses against Sacramento and Oklahoma City he attempted 13 three-pointers and made only three. But nobody played well against the Thunder, and on the whole he’s been the team’s most consistent offensive player. Parsons was unfortunately burned on the other end of the floor by Tyreke Evans a couple times, and remains Saran wrapped to screeners when defending a pick-and-roll. Not a compliment.

1) Dwight Howard (Last week: 1)

Dwight was a shell of himself against old friend Kendrick Perkins when Houston played the Thunder, but toss that performance to the side and he’s been one of the five or six best all around players in basketball. At the beginning of the second half against New Orleans, Howard had back to back plays where he caught an entry pass with his back to the basket, took a few dribbles, then spun and dunked it. That type of offense is invaluable.

He also had eight turnovers in that game, and was frustrated by DeMarcus Cousins during Houston’s embarrassing home loss to the Kings. But overall Howard’s been Houston’s best overall player. He’s number one on this list for, like, the fifth straight week. And I’m not sure he’ll ever leave.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 10 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

These happen to be the most desirable scoring locations on a basketball court, and nobody uses them with more uncompromising concentration than Harden. Now 34 games into the season, Harden’s offensive repertoire is expanding to an unlikely area: the mid-range.

As last season dragged on, the already low percentage of Harden’s points coming from the mid-range got smaller and smaller. In March it dropped down to 4.5%. In April (eight games), 2.9%. During six playoff games against the Oklahoma City Thunder, just 2.5% of all Harden’s points came from the mid-range. These numbers are downright admirable in their absurdity for someone who shoots and scores as often as Harden does.

(Harden was at 4.6% in his last season with the Thunder, and 7.8% the year before that.)

Here are two shot charts that map out the slight redistribution of Harden’s offensive output from last year to now. The first comes from the 2012-13 season.

As expected, a huge chunk of Harden’s attempts came from behind the three-point line and nearly half came in the paint.

The difference between the two distribution charts is both minor and significant. Harden’s attempts from the mid-range are up 3.4%, with fewer forays into the paint and even more shots from deep. Thanks to the addition of Dwight Howard, the increase in threes was to be expected. But did anybody think one out of every five shots attempted by Harden would be a long two?

Look at how Harden performed last season from the mid-range.

Now compare the red splotches found inside the three-point line with what’s taken place so far this season.

The sample size is particularly small here—it’s unlikely he remains as poor from the right side as he is lights out from the left—but this may indicate that Harden is on his way to establishing another area of his offensive game.

There are pros and cons to be found. For starters, there’s the hopeful finding that he can be just as dangerous a scorer from less coveted areas as he is from the spots his name has become synonymous with. Defenses know how Harden likes to attack, and what we may be seeing this season is a young All-Star adapting to those adjustments and still thriving as one of the league’s top offensive weapons.

Harden’s PER remains above his career average and his overall field goal percentage is slightly higher than last year. He still attacks the rim. The free-throw line remains his best friend; Kevin Durant is the only player to make more free-throws than Harden this season. But he’s been disappointing from behind the three-point line, hanging on to the 30% mark like George Clooney did floating space debris in Gravity.

According to mySynergySports, he’s also utilizing the post a bit more; a fair amount coming against smaller guards who allow Harden to shoot over the top or bully them down low. Here he’s shown fantastic timing, refusing to make his move until a helping big slides back to the opposite side of the paint to avoid a three-second violation.

He’s a scorer, and the best scorers need to utilize as much of the court as possible. Harden’s fallen in love with a sugary step back jumper that’s just about impossible to block and seemingly affords wide open looks whenever he wants them (like the LaMarcus Aldridge baseline turnaround or the one-legged Dirk Nowitzki fall away).

Here are a few looks where Harden receives a high screen then reads the defense perfectly. The first two happened moments apart in a game against Portland earlier this season.

And here’s the same thing against the Spurs. Harden recognizes the space Tim Duncan has given him, sees there are four Spurs in the paint to prevent a drive to the rim (or an effective role by Howard), and figures an open jump shot from the foul line is as good a look as Houston will get on this possession. He’s right.

Not all is perfect with the increase in mid-range shots, though. We all know a long two isn’t better than a three. But not all long twos are the same. Some are necessary. Unfortunately, Harden’s been prone to jack up a fare share of shots that could best be described as “not necessary”—contested attempts that come with the shot clock winding down on possessions where Houston’s offense show absolutely no movement or action to make the defense work.

Almost all Harden’s long twos come off the dribble, too, which is less accurate than a spot up shot. He does almost everything by himself. Screens are used, sure, but only 2.6% of all his made field goals are assisted.

Both of these designed clear outs are the type of look Houston (and all teams, for that matter) should avoid as much as possible. Both are cases where Harden settles on the perimeter. In the first clip against Denver he has Evan Fournier on him with plenty of time and space to attack the rim and draw a foul. He does not attack the rim and draw a foul.

This is hero ball. A tiny bit of it never hurt anybody, but too much—even from an extremely gifted scorer like Harden—can seriously damage a team’s offensive rhythm. The modification to Harden’s game isn’t enormous, but change still exists. Long twos are not sought after on a team wide scale, but for individual scorers they remain an important part of the game.

Houston can’t race up and down the court on every possession. Games get slower in the playoffs, when the league’s very best defenses will have ample time to strategize ways to prevent Harden from doing what he wants—which, primarily, is still driving to the rim and shooting threes. Half-court possessions won’t be easy, and Harden will need to prosper in other, less ideal ways. Given his troubles behind the three-point line, it’s certainly positive that he’s been able to take a few steps in and knock down jump shots.

His game is growing. Good news for any basketball player, especially a young one on a max contract. But given Harden’s offensive responsibilities—the countless ways Houston depends on him to create various scoring opportunities—it’s tough to say whether this trend is costly or profitable until we see his productive means unfold in the playoffs. Right now it’s a little bit of both.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post James Harden’s Offensive Expansion appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.

I had the good fortune of attending Friday night’s contest in Oakland, my first time in the Oracle, and the last time I’ll ever see Dwight Howard sink a corner three. Many of this week’s observations will be taken from that experience.

Also, semi-related: this week was another hectic travel period for me (hopefully my last of 2013?), so PPR won’t be as in-depth as I’d like it to be. Thanks for understanding, and hope all Red94’s readers enjoy a Happy Holiday!

12) Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 11)

Two nights ago against the Chicago Bulls, Ronnie Brewer converted a nifty reverse layup against his former team. It made Jeff Van Gundy say nice things about Houston’s depth. Go Ronnie Go!

11) Donatas Motiejunas (Last week: 10)

He isn’t getting better on the defensive end, and he isn’t getting minutes. Why not let him get some burn in the D-League? Seriously, send him down there, let him ball, let him improve Someone explain why that’s a problematic idea?

10) Greg Smith (Last week: N/A)

If someone not named Dwight Howard or Omer Asik is capable of improving Houston’s standing as the 20th ranked defensive rebounding team in the league, it’s Greg Smith. Nobody talks about Smith, but he’s an efficient big with nice hands and solid touch, and him playing well casts a wider net on what the Rockets can ask for while shopping Asik.

He scored 10 points in 34 minutes this week, but it’d be nice to see him get to the free-throw line.

9) Jeremy Lin (Last week: 8)

Lin can’t stay healthy. Upon returning from a knee injury, he immediately found himself sidelined after the Warriors game with back spasms. In that contest he was understandably underwhelming, scoring eight points and turning it over four times in 21 minutes.

8) Aaron Brooks (Last week: 7)

Jeremy Lin was out, but Brooks wasn’t able to take consistent advantage of an expected minutes increase. He scored 13 points on eight shots against the Kings, but followed that up with two points on five missed shots against the Bulls.

7) Terrence Jones (Last week: 3)

I wrote this last week, but it carried into this week so I’ll write it again. It isn’t fair to play Terrence Jones at center. At times it’s also irrational. In Golden State, Kelvin Sampson opted to play Jones at the five whenever Howard needed a rest, even though a perfectly healthy seven-foot tall Donatas Motiejunas was on the bench.

Golden State’s Marreese Speights turned into Karl Malone, abusing Jones and the rest of Houston’s undersized frontcourt. Again, this isn’t Jones’ fault, but it’s not like he made up for it on the other end. In three games last week Jones averaged 4.7 points on 26.3% shooting. No threes were made, either.

Jones is a super young energy guy, and playing him out of position is starting to damage other parts of his game.

6) Omri Casspi (Last week: 4)

This was easily Casspi’s least impressive week of the season. He shot 35% from the floor and posted a negative number in plus/minus. There’s nothing to be too concerned with, though. Casspi simply missed some threes that he’d spent the season sinking. They’ll fall again.

5) Francisco Garcia (Last week: 9)

Finally used as something more than a streaky spot-up up shooter, Garcia was incredibly effective down the stretch against Golden State as a pick-and-pop partner with James Harden. On almost every trip down the court, Garcia would screen Harden’s man and either force a switch, create an open shot for himself, or a slick driving lane for Houston’s leading scorer.

4) Patrick Beverley (Last week: 6)

Safe to say this was the best week of Patrick Beverley’s season. Numbers aside (including 12.3 points on a 56/40/71.4 shooting split), it was when he showed up that leaves a mark. Beverley was sensational in the 4^th quarter against Golden State, taking four shots and missing none of them. Despite an insane crowd and the endless threat of delirious wizardry from Stephen Curry, the Rockets were seven points better than the Warriors in the nine minutes Beverley played during that frame. The 7.00 assist to turnover ratio doesn’t hurt.

3) Chandler Parsons (Last week: 5)

From this moment forward, Chandler Parsons is no longer ChandlerBang. Instead, in his moments of on-court glory, we will shout “Buffalo Jeans!”

Anyway, Buffalo Jeans was a (basketball) stud this week, with all-around numbers that settled above the clouds. He was Houston’s second leading scorer (20.3  points per game) and trailed only Dwight Howard in fouls drawn, with 4.3 per game. 

2) James Harden (Last week: 2)

Sinking two free-throws while balancing on one foot in Sacramento was aristocratic, but dropping 19 points on 13 shots in 35 minutes three days later against the Chicago Bulls was mesmerizing. Harden led all players with a +22 in that one, by the way.

1) Dwight Howard (Last week: 1)

The aforementioned three-pointer was great, and moments after it went in, the hush that befell the crowd reminded me of one time back in the 7^th grade when a kid in my Spanish class sprayed several square feet of the room with vomit while our teacher distributed the Final exam.

Howard’s three wasn’t as gross, but it hypnotized the room. He spent the rest of the week on a tear, making 61.9% of his free-throws and 71.4% of his shots from the floor, most of them coming on the prettiest post-moves Howard’s made in a few years.

Michael Pina has bylines at Red94, CelticsHub, The Classical, Bleacher Report, Sports On Earth, and Boston Magazine. Follow him here.

The post Player Power Rankings: Week 8 appeared first on Red94 | Houston Rockets news and musings.