Glance at Ariza’s Scoring Efficiency this Year

2010 January 31
by durvasa

Just a quick look at Ariza’s scoring efficiency (in terms of true shooting%) over the course of this season:

The red line represents league average true shooting% (about 54%).  It is rare indeed when Ariza is able to match this number; he has done it only 9 times this season.

And here we show the distribution over these games:

The “norm” curve represents the expected distribution of TS% for 45 games, the number of games Ariza has played thus far, based on season average TS% (about 46%) and the standard deviation (about 13%).  The green curve represents the corresponding expected distribution for the following 6 comparable players: Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, O.J. Mayo, Andre Iguodala, and Caron Butler. They were chosen because they are the 6 wing players who’ve played at least 1000 minutes this season that get the closest number of scoring attempts per game to Ariza (about 17).  Over the games for these 6 comparable players, the mean TS% for them was 52% and the standard deviation was 13%. You can think of the green curve as representing the distribution of TS% we should expect from Ariza considering how often he shoots.

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  • physicsgeekandrocketsfan
    Uhhh... You're holding ariza up to some pretty high standards if you're comparing him to those guys, most of them are the top scorers on their team. Is that we're expecting from ariza?
  • durvasa
    Given the frequency of his scoring attempts? Yes. If he was just slightly below average efficiency-wise, his scoring rate would be on par with those players. That is he very clearly not in their class as an offensive player should tell us that he is getting way too many shots in our offense.
  • mezla
    Beautiful! Nothing quite like maths to make a point... that point being: use Ariza... but don't use him to *attempt* to score quite as often. In my opinion he needs to get a few less minutes. Those minutes should be made up predominantly by Luis Scola, with a mixture of others.
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