Thoughts of the day: Lowry, Brooks, WP48, Brad Miller…

By rahat huq | July 15, 2010 at 7:01 am

The Rockets moved quickly yesterday to match the offer extended to guard Kyle Lowry by the Cleveland Cavaliers. I explained yesterday, chided along the way in the comments for my dubious use of the term ‘impact’, that Lowry’s effect on the team and relative productivity made the decision a no-brainer.

Is trading guard Aaron Brooks the the natural, logical extension to extending Lowry? While I think that avenue will certainly be explored, I wouldn’t necessarily jump to that conclusion. If Brooks can be retained at ~$8million, it very well could be that the team’s expected aggregate production with he and Lowry at the ’1′ exceeds expected output from the team with his return in a trade.
The team’s approach to Brooks will be interesting. Might they look to extend early in-season? They would relinquish flexibility but also avoid any unexpected surprises that the market may bear. The team’s decision could indicate its opinion on Brooks: if they allow things to play out, there could be an expectation of reduced production and a belief that much of last year’s was usage-inflated; if they move quickly, they might expect continued improvement regardless of the circumstances.
Wanted to get to this yesterday. Great discussion in the comments on Tuesday.

Following up on a previous diagnosis, a reader, Blake, explains:

“Wins Produced is based on regression analysis determining which box-score stats are important to wins. It can be difficult to calculate without a spreadsheet. There is a simpler metric devised by the same group called Win Score (which can be converted to WP48) which I will use to explain the statistic.

Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF

This does not produce the same numbers as WP48, but the philosophy is the same. This metric does not award value for creating a shot and is commonly criticized for overvaluing rebounds. Possessions and points are the most important outcomes in a game using this metric. Allen Iverson, for instance, rates poorly using this method, because of inefficient shooting and low rebounding numbers–he squanders possessions he uses and does not generate many for his team.

Wins Produced is not a panacea. WP48 does not take into account individual defense. It also assigns credit for a rebound only to the rebounder, disregarding any team defense that led to a missed shot. Players like Bruce Bowen and Shane Battier are likely undervalued. But as a whole, it’s an interesting tool.

WP48 is a number that represents the chance of winning a player adds to a team. A team of average players (.100 WP48) have a 50% chance to win each game and will win around 41 games. A team of stars (.200 WP48) should win every game.

Hopefully this explains Wins Produced a little better to those of you unfamiliar with it. In closing, here are the Rockets’ career WP48 numbers, for anyone interested:

To which an anonymous reader responds:

“Just to point out, Blake’s formula is used to calculate Win Score, as he said, not WP48. Speculating as to why Aaron Brooks has a low WP48 based on the Win Score formula can lead you quickly astray. Granted, the listed WP48 for Aaron Brooks is low and correct, but it’s just not calculated using this formula (Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST– FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF).

WP48 adjustments are also typically made to account for minutes and positions played to accurately account for an issue like the one Randy brought up. (Relationship between guards and assists and ultimate win contribution.) Assists, using WP48, do not carry the same weight for guards and centers in the WP48 world.

Here’s a complete explanation of WP48: http://www.wagesofwins.com/CalculatingWinsProdu…

Yao’s WP48 of .226 is valid when he plays, which isn’t as often as we need to actually contend. This is the main issue with Blake’s post (nothing wrong, just feel like the point has to be driven home). Win contributions should be calculated using the following formula ((WP48/48) * Minutes Played). To simply take a WP48 statistic and extrapolate wins without completely weighing the possibility of injury will inflate the numbers. Yao’s WP48 of .226 translates to roughly (.226/48)*2558 =12.185 wins. If Yao plays 82 games (using his 33.6 MPG average in 08-09), wins turns into 12.67. Yao, however, has only averaged 2246 minutes/season so far over his career. Even using his .226 WP48 from 08-09, an average season (in terms of minutes played) only leads to 10.57 wins. When you look further down the Rockets roster at players like Martin and and Ariza (for example), you can easily see how the 60 win prediction seems lofty (it assumes no injuries).

I’m not a statistician, so I apologize if I did anything incorrectly. While 60 wins next season doesn’t seem likely, it seems about as probable as an injury-free season.

Nice job Blake, just wanted to say, like you said, WP48 is a number that represents the chance of winning a player adds to a team. If he doesn’t play that often, the impact is limited.”

Blake clarifies:

“Anonymous, my point is that our team average WP48 could be greater than .150 even considering minutes played by the stars. The aggregate of Wins Produced becomes spread across a larger number of quality players, leaving less need for a true star. This raises the question of whether a superstar like Lebron’s .441 last year is such a necessity for a team to win games. Rahat often speaks of recreating the aggregate. This metric is one that easily lends itself to how it could be done.”

The above discussion raises interesting questions perhaps far too theoretical in nature for the majority’s taste. To what extent can aggregate production be relied upon? Outright dependence would render the traditional basketball ‘role’ obsolete. For instance, could a team of positional ‘Battiers’ with career .150 numbers but no playmaking skills overcome a team of players fitting the traditional roles (star + role players)? The hope would be for the former to overwhelm the latter through the aggregate effect in quarters 1-3 and falling back on the lead in quarter 4. I think circumstances change too greatly in the later stages of games to rely upon the standard measures for combined output, but I do suspect this difference is accounted for at the Rockets’ offices.
This is the point in today’s column where the other 96% of you can stop scrolling down and resume reading. The Rockets have made an offer to center Brad Miller. As they expect to project above the tax, they must be fairly high on his abilities at this stage as his actual price will be double of what he signs for. With that said, while Daryl Morey’s trade and drafting track record are as close to impeccable as anyone in this league, his history with veterans in free agency leaves something to be desired. Steve Francis can be overlooked as a marketing move made at Les Alexander’s behest but Brent Barry was indubitably a flop, albeit a low-cost one. However, if Miller signs for just 1 year, the risk is low with the only drawback affecting Les’ wallet. Had the team signed Bosh, I would have been all-in on Miller. As we stand though, with little to no chance at contention for the year, I would prefer to play things out with Jordan Hill getting the bulk of the minutes. Having said that, I’m sure the Rockets do not have as pessimistic of an outlook or could be hoping for a trade later on to push the team into the thick of things. (I suspect many of you will take issue with my prognosis on the team’s chances.)
D.J Foster, writing in TrueHoop, had thoughts on Chase Budinger.
Much talk at the moment of an interview with David Kahn by Chris Webber. Google it yourself as I don’t feel like finding a link but I didn’t find it as humorous as hyped. Note that I’m grumpy at this time of the day and might return later for a second viewing – don’t let my opinion deter you.
Michael Jordan recently opined on camera that out of Bryant and James, the former was the superior player of the two. The clip is making the rounds as some sort of end-all smoking gun for the classic debate. Amusing considering MJ’s well-documented struggles with talent evaluation (see: Brown, Kwame; also see: emphatic objection to Oakley-Cartwright trade.)
Tracy McGrady appears to have received an offer from the Los Angeles Clippers. Who has the most game left at the moment out of McGrady, Steve Francis, and former Rocket guard Cuttino Mobley? Answer: Juwan Howard who is actually still in the league and good for six hard fouls.