- First, to touch on some of the comments. A reader, Blake, writes:
Not sure if any of you are familiar with the Wins Produced per 48 minutes (WP48) metric of David Berri. The Rockets next season will run two-deep at 4 positions with guys with career WP48 .150 or greater, or 50% better than the average player (.100 WP48). If a team is all .150 WP48 guys, you can project over 60 wins. According to this method, provided we stay healthy, stop playing Aaron Brooks big minutes (according to the metric, he is a less-than-average player), and maintain historical production, the Rockets could top 60 wins.
It’s an unusual situation, and I don’t think the Rockets use this metric, but by at least one statistical metric, we look good next year.
- On Wade being small: most of the older players, Jordan and Kobe, could go to the post when the athleticism failed them and maintain efficiency. But at 6’4, even with a very solid frame, that won’t be an option for Wade.
- On the Rockets needing a playmaker: it’s a huge concern, especially for an old-school guy like myself who firmly believes that element is necessary. But it seems they feel the synergistic passing effect can override that, similar to the Sacramento Kings of yesterday.
- On Yao not being elite: if you have not yet, read my piece on Yao Ming where I explain my thoughts in depth. To me, an elite player is someone who can be relied upon to deliver nightly in the playoffs. If we had a game 7 tomorrow, and I asked you, “is there a better chance Yao gives us 30 and 15 or 10 and 5?” my guess is that the overwhelming majority would pick the latter. Yao is simply too easily neutralized to be considered ‘elite.’ I view him as more of a weapon – he can explode in certain circumstances and should be milked to death in those instances, but otherwise, should not be the focal point on offense as he has been in the past.
- On Lebron as a passer vs. shot-maker: I get the sense that James is much more comfortable setting others up. This isn’t to say that he can’t score, only that I don’t foresee any clash between he and Wade. Furthermore, Lebron has never had the consistent mid-range jumper possessed by all of the elite wings and practically necessary in the playoffs when defenses pack the paint and 3point line – you might even prefer Wade shooting in those situations.
- Michael Jordan just killed a deal that would have sent Boris Diaw, Leandro Barbosa, and Tyson Chandler to the Raptors, with Hedo Turkoglu going to Phoenix and Jose Calderon to the Bobcats. First thought: can’t believe Phoenix was that dumb. Second thought: didn’t know Colangelo was that smart. Third thought: 9 years after Kwame debacle, Jordan getting wiser.
- Al Jefferson has been traded to the Utah Jazz for a trade exception. This brings to mind a lot of points. First, expiring contracts are not nearly as valuable in today’s age as they were in the past. They were valuable last year because teams were looking to clear cap space for Lebronothon. But in general, since the recession, teams have wanted the instant savings offered by partially guaranteed contracts and TPE’s rather than the cap space yielded from expiring contracts. Expiring contracts have much more value towards the deadline when the balance owed is half the original amount and the remainder can be partially offset by cash. But for now, I would not expect to see the Rockets make a big move before February.
- Second point on Jefferson, which needed its own bullet, pertains to the Jazz. That team now employs possibly the two players in basketball who give Yao Ming the biggest fits. It remains to be seen how much Al has left in the tank but its fascinating to me how far someone can fall off.
- That brings us to our next point, and it pertains to guaranteed money. Anyone wondering why the 6th year was crucial for a lot of these free agents should look no further than Al Jefferson. There’s no way he would command his current salary on the open market. As a rule, unless you’re an aging vet, I think money should always be the foremost concern, considering that these players have what basically amounts to a ten year shelf life. Any economics professor would readily counter that most people would choose to live at the location of their desire rather than the alternative of living in Alaska for $15,000 more, citing the neutralizing value of ‘happiness.’ The distinction here however, in the NBA, is that players can be traded with impunity and are traded the second management deems it convenient. It’s mind numbingly stupid for younger players to take less money to play at their preferred destination. Cuttino Mobley comes to mind as someone who turned down a larger offer sheet and was later traded.
- Along those lines, if I recall correctly, Jefferson actually turned down a larger salary from the Wolves claiming he didn’t “feel [he] was worth the max yet.” Now, humility is a great virtue we should all strive to teach our kids, but so is common sense. I still find it hard to believe that report was true simply because I can’t quite grasp the utter stupidity behind it. We see how that altruism worked out for Al as he is now a proud resident of Salt Lake City. Always take the money. Always.
- …except if you’re an aging vet. I can understand Haslem’s decision in turning down $14million more to remain with the Heat because he’s at a point in his career where the “experience” of success is enough of an incentive to risk the possibility of being traded. He’s also at the point where a player’s age makes them less attractive in a trade.
- The Heat seem to have filled out their roster with the Haslem and Miller signings. Like Jordan and Pippen, they now have the two best wing defenders in basketball. Can Bosh and Haslem be as good defensively as Rodman and Longley?
- Update: The Dallas Mavericks just landed center Tyson Chandler for a package centered around the partially guaranteed contract of Erick Dampier. This is interesting for two reasons. First, we see the primacy of partially guaranteed deals over expiring deals. It’s instant real-dollar savings that teams place a premium upon – not cap space. Second point is my amazement – heading into the summer, I thought surely the Mavs would couple Dampier with Beaubois and haul in a major star. Instead, they were only able to acquire Chandler who, while certainly an impressive pick-up, is a bit of a let-down from that early prediction.
-ESPN Houston Rockets Affiliate- Rahat Huq - founder, editor email: rahathuq@red94.net
Silly jazz fans make me giggle. I am going to hop in my Delorean go back to the 90's and watch our Rockets win championships and the Jazz fail time and time again.
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