The chart above was produced using data from an excellent site called Sports Club Stats. The site predicts playoff seeding by simulating the rest of the NBA season millions of times. You can read about how the simulations work here, but I’ll give the gist. The simulations take into account performance to date, strength of schedule, performance of other teams in the division/conference, home vs. away, difficulty of the remaining schedule, and league tie breaker rules. Pretty much the only thing the simulations don’t account for are unpredictable things such as Derrick-Rose-like injuries, trades, or lineup changes.
The detailed results of the simulations allow us to make specific statements like the following:
- To be more likely than not to make the playoffs out of the Western Conference, the Rockets need to win at least 43 games.
- 92% is the current estimated probability that the Rockets will win at least 43 games.
- To comfortably earn a playoff spot (i.e., to have a >99% chance), the Rockets need to win at least 46 games.
- 73% is the current estimated probability that the Rockets will win at least 46 games.
- To be more likely than not to earn one of the top 4 seeds, the Rockets need to win at least 49 games.
- Estimated 43% chance.
- To comfortably earn one of the top 4 seeds, the Rockets need to win at least 53 games.
- Estimated 11% chance.
- To be more likely than not to earn the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 54 games.
- Estimated 7% chance.
- To have a >90% chance at earning the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 58 games.
- Estimated 0.5% chance.
- To have a >99% chance at earning the top seed in the West, the Rockets need to win at least 61 games.
- Estimated 0.04% chance.
Putting it all together graphically looks like this:
Overall, the Rockets are currently estimated to have a 47% chance of earning one of the top four seeds and a 22% chance of earning one of the top two seeds.
I know people will question the small sample size – and it’s true that the estimates will become more precise as the season gets further along – but you’d be surprised at how clear of a picture you can get after 19 games of an NBA season. (MLB and NHL are a different story because their games are much more random.) If you don’t believe me, have a look at previous seasons (which are available in the sidebar of the NBA page). Teams have hot streaks and cold streaks, but it’s not often that you see an NBA team’s outlook dramatically change after 19 games.
(Note: John Hollinger estimates playoff probabilities in a similar way [shown here; explained here] but I prefer the Sports Club Stats estimates because (1) my buddy Ken runs the site, so I’m biased, and (2) the estimates are much more detailed [e.g., showing expected seed and changes over time] and are derived from much larger simulations.)
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