Where we stand – 07/07

Y! reports that Bosh, Wade, and James will hold a conference call today to finalize their decisions.  I would not be surprised if this ‘news’ was leaked by one of their handlers – they’ve seemed to expect a near masturbatory response with each ‘breaking development.’  Suffice it to say, this entire ordeal has been a public relations disaster for ‘The Big 3.’

Update: Chris Bosh’s latest tweet….

As you’ve no doubt heard, Lebron will announce his decision upon the culmination of a one-hour special on ESPN.  The sponsorship payouts will allegedly go to charity.  Can’t complain there.

I think this course points to James staying in Cleveland; can’t see him breaking news of his departure live in front of a nationally televised audience – that would be far too sinister.  (Were this the caricature that has become Chris Bosh, one could easily foresee such a lapse of PR judgment.)

Miami seems to have gained the upper hand in the Bosh-Wade package sweepstakes.  It’s clear Bosh’s foremost preference is to remain with Wade.  If he landed in Houston, at this point, it would seem to be nothing short of a miracle – think McGrady trade miracle.

One thing seems clear and it is the status of the Knicks picks, with the free agency dust settling, possibly more valuable than ever.  Lee for Stoudemire is invariably a wash, but the bigger, more overlooked loss will be the contributions of such players as Al Harrington, Eddie House, Sergio Rodriguez, and Tracy McGrady.  Not world-beaters, but that was NBA talent that, save a push to waste what remains of their precious space, the Knicks will play without this season.  Ray Felton, recently linked to New York, will help, but that is a lottery team, East or not.

Update: ESPN reports that Chris Bosh will join the Miami Heat today.  Cue the painfully predictable “we didn’t want him anyway, Scola is better” chorus.  Diva or not, Bosh would have lifted this team overnight to contender status.  This one hurts.

Still, this team is no worse off than it had been.  With the expirings of Battier and Jeffries, I do expect Morey to make some blockbuster move before the winter ends.  The question is not ‘if’ but rather ‘when.’

Morey knew coming in that this was likely a longshot yet he still refused to parlay assets for a draft trade-up.  I think that means there is a targeted backup plan.  Who that will be remains to be seen.  For now, New Orleans will be in no hurry to deal Chris Paul after draft day maneuverings brought them back below the tax.  Still, if Hornets brass is blown away by an offer, one could see them taking the bird in the hand.

I do not think there will be interest in Al Jefferson and Carmelo Anthony could come at too high a cost.  With the Knicks threat having passed, the smartest course might just be to stand pat and make minor upgrades until something lopsided comes along.  This will all be topic for discussion over the coming weeks/months.

Update: Chris Bosh just tweeted:

What’s all the fuss about this morning? I woke up to a ton of emails, texts and missed calls.

MAYBE NOTHING’S HAPPENED!!!?  HE WOULD KNOW, RIGHT?!  WHY ELSE WOULD HE BE CONFUSED UNLESS THE REPORT IS WRONG!??!  WHAT’S GOING ON?!?!  SOMEONE PLEASE CALL JA RULE SO I CAN MAKE SENSE OF ALL OF THIS!

Give us back our Ipad and please go away, Chris Bosh.  Your fifteen minutes are now over.

This entry was posted in On the NBA. Bookmark the permalink. Post a comment or leave a trackback: Trackback URL.
Post comment as twitter logo facebook logo
Sort: Newest | Oldest

Kade,
Why would San Antonio trade Scola to a player in it's own Division?
Houston can offer more than anyone else in a combo of expirings,young talent and multiple Firsts.Even w/trading away 3 Firsts over next 3 yrs-and yes I'd do it for Paul as the Knicks picks can't be the 1,2-the Rockets would still have their own First in 2012 and the option of buying others if a player they want falls.
If Shinn is stuck w/Hornets I can see him moving the team in a couple of yrs to oh say Seattle,and at that point the League swaps OKC and Seattle Divisional Spots.

rahat huq: Kade,
Amare for Lee was a wash.Knicks picks look even better if anything.    

So Lee is gone? I will be surprised if the Knicks don't sign anyone else from now until end of next season.

Kade,
Why would San Antonio trade Scola to a player in it's own Division?
Houston can offer more than anyone else in a combo of expirings,young talent and multiple Firsts.Even w/trading away 3 Firsts over next 3 yrs-and yes I'd do it for Paul as the Knicks picks can't be the 1,2-the Rockets would still have their own First in 2012 and the option of buying others if a player they want falls.
If Shinn is stuck w/Hornets I can see him moving the team in a couple of yrs to oh say Seattle,and at that point the League swaps OKC and Seattle Divisional Spots.

Jordan: I have felt for a long time that Jordan Hill is going to be a very big piece in the Rockets system . He is committed to working out, playing basketball and working on his game 3 out of 4 weeks every month. This guy is huge, he can run and jump and has a knack for rebounding, he will play very well with Yao. I know that “loosing” out on Bosh was tough but we were never really in the conversation to begin with. Jordan Hill is going to play very well for us and you can mark my words, come playoff time the Rockets will be playing longer than the Heat.  (reply with quote)  (reply w/out quote)

I like your comment. When I first saw hill play I boasted that he had the potential to be a combination of Yao Ming and Dwight Howard, with the potential of a great shooting ability as well as extroadinary rebounding and atheletism. I guess only time will tell where he will go, but the guy might become the next best PF in the league.

Jordan,

I like Hill a lot as well. I hope you are accurate in terms of his future and also us playing longer than Mia in the playoffs.

Kade,

Amare Stoudmire is a somewhat equivalent to David Lee without Steve Nash feeding him the ball, so I don't see a change for the knicks... plus they signed him for 20 mil... and they lost 5 players, including tmac and eddie house, to free agency.

I see the knicks going down instead of up.

I have felt for a long time that Jordan Hill is going to be a very big piece in the Rockets system . He is committed to working out, playing basketball and working on his game 3 out of 4 weeks every month. This guy is huge, he can run and jump and has a knack for rebounding, he will play very well with Yao. I know that "loosing" out on Bosh was tough but we were never really in the conversation to begin with. Jordan Hill is going to play very well for us and you can mark my words, come playoff time the Rockets will be playing longer than the Heat.

Why on Earth would NO trade CP3 to Houston, a team in their own division? It's safe to say that IF (huge IF here) they were to trade CP3 that a lot of teams would be interested.

The Knick swap 1st round pick looks a lot worse now before the Amare signing so what's going to have to happen is to see how well or bad the Knicks will be this year up until trade deadline. At that point though it will either be worthless (assume Knicks are better at that point than Rockets) or will be worth potentially a lot (say the Knicks are a lottery team) but at that point just keep the pick and take our chances in the draft. Anyone worth anything in a trade we'll have to take on a huge contract with it.

Charlie Boy,

Hindsight is always 20/20, but there is no doubt that adding Bosh would have put us in elite status in the West. It's now obvious that he cares more about the glamour and attention and playing with his 'boy' D-Wade rather than playing for a winner. The Heat could be a winner eventually, but if they get past the second round in the next two years I'll be shocked.

Im just glad that all of this is starting to become a lot clearer. I wanted bosh, but Im not overly upset. I think the entire charade was annoying and I think he made a bad decision (team/wins wise), but at the same time I do not blame him for wanting to go play with his boy DWade, who has a ring. Who in Houston has a ring? And who wouldnt just choose Miami over Houston when solely comparing cities? Ive lived in Houston for years, but if I could be a millionaire superstar living in Miami, I wouldnt think twice. Best of luck to Bosh.

dont know what was worse, bosh's incessant twittering, or the dick riding that went on at 'houston4bosh ... really embarrasing for alot of rocket fans who werent bending over for a bosh deal. give me a healthy yao and co. next year bringing back the 'air raid' offense from the mid 90's and i'll be a happy man. maybe add a 'wow' piece near the deadline.

You know what. After all the latest hoopla and Bosh's latest tweet, if Bosh does announce today that he is signing with Miami, I am going to root against him the rest of his career. The appearance at this point is that he's been playing with the media and enjoying seeing the whole world going gaga about him.

But if he is really confused because someone else is playing games with him and with us, then I'll forgive him. At any rate, Agent Thomas is looking more and more like a prick though, from Houston's point of view at least.

Funny,when I heard LeBron was "donating" the ESPN air-time to charity I thought it was PR cover for leaving Cleveland.
And 1 hour to say where he's going? So there's the LeBron highlight package,talking heads on what it means if he goes to so-and-so,a 5 minute explanation of his decision(and possible thank-you to Cleveland),then a uncomfortable interview w/ESPN(cause no one's going to ask the hard questions),a recap of how it efects the League and a brief interview w/the winning team and fan reaction. Bleh.

Plan B is Chris Paul.
If Shinn can't sell,Paul's gone. He has tested the waters,found no huge outcry,got Paul to sign off on a trade and just has to find best deal he can.Plus there's the CP# liked Scott,West hated Scott factor. So who did Shinn listen to?
Rockets can offer Brooks,Hill,Battier,cash and 3 Firsts(two Knicks and 2013 own)for Paul and side deal of Jeffries for Posey. NO saves @ $2.5mil in salaries,gets a ton of picks,pockets $3mil in cash and can trade Battier to whatever contender they want at deadline. Plus can do same w/Brooks if they really like Collins.
Shinn may be under tax,but will still want to save money.(And if he trades Brooks for a big,Thompson of Sac,Rudy,Pendergraph of Portland)he can afford to trade Okafor to Knicks for Curry.
Ends up in 2011 w/$30mil+ in cap space,draft picks,some young talent and can legitimately sell as rebuilding,just like NO had to do after Katrina.

rahat huq: Kade,
Amare for Lee was a wash.Knicks picks look even better if anything.    

So Lee is gone? I will be surprised if the Knicks don't sign anyone else from now until end of next season.

"Somebody please call Ja Rule so I can make sense of all this"

Hysterical. Props for the Chappelle reference.

bob schmidt's post got me to thinking: What will the Eastern Conference seeding look like?

In order to project the value of New York's 2011 pick, we should figure out the likelihood NY secures a playoff berth. If we’re banking on a lottery-quality pick, we don’t care about seeding for the Top 8, only whether NY is playoff-bound at all.

These were the standings in the East for 2009-2010:
1) Cleveland: 61-21
2) Orlando: 59-23
3) Atlanta: 53-29
4) Boston: 50-32
5) Miami: 47-35
6) Milwaukee: 46-36
7) Charlotte: 44-38
8) Chicago: 41-41

9) Toronto: 40-42
10) Indiana: 32-50
11) New York: 29-53
12) Detroit: 27-55
13) Philadelphia: 27-55
14) Washington: 26-56
15) New Jersey: 12-70

With what we currently know, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Miami should be safe assumptions for qualifying in the Top 8. For now, let's assume James sticks with Cleveland and also claims a berth. If he does not, then:
- going to Miami would only bump them up in seeding, but opens a window for one more team
- going to New Jersey or Chicago would just replace Cleveland's position (not necessarily as #1, just claiming a berth)
- he goes to New York, which would vault them into the playoffs and dramatically reduce the picks' value

(Semi-tangent: I believe that since James is making a televised announcement on Thursday, a big show to publicly humiliate Cleveland would be unlikely and way out of line to fans. I’m not a Cleveland fan and the idea he might do that sickens me. I don't think James is that dense, especially not if the whole announcement requires an entire hour.)

That accounts for six expected berths, so long as he doesn’t choose Miami.

Of the remaining teams, Charlotte has not made any major off-season moves, so to gain a starting point, let’s assume it hovers around par, or 41-41, to establish a baseline for comparison.

Can Chicago beat that? Possibly. They did before, though current cap space signings would have to be taken into consideration. Very possible #7 or #8 again.

Those would be the two for New York to beat. But can anyone else steal the show?

Toronto was close in 2009-2010, but by unloading Bosh, they’re probably not getting anything substantial enough in return to make a definite playoff push. They should drop in the rankings to the lottery. Turkoglu would have to really, really steal the show.

Indiana picked up a few interesting pieces from the draft, but can the rookies lift them by 9 games from a 32-50 season to at least 41-41? 50-50 on lottery chances.

The same is likely to apply to Washington and Philadelphia: even though they picked up some excellent pieces, it’s incredible to suggest that Wall or Turner is a +15 WARP as a rookie, so I believe they are lottery bound.

Detroit is a definite lottery team.

Until New Jersey’s FA situation becomes clearer (and possibly more competitive to New York), we have to assume it’s not a player for a berth in 2010-2011. If they do land a big FA not named James, then New Jersey will be a great contender for #7 or 8, and lock out yet another berth from New York.

We return to the question, then: can New York beat Chicago or Charlotte for a #7 or #8 seeding, given their 29-53 record in 2009-2010? Even if they *don’t* lose Lee, does Stoudemire account for +12 WARP? If they do lose Lee and claim a second FA not named James, Wade, or Bosh, can they really achieve better than 0.500? What if New Jersey gets a decent tier 2 FA?

I think with Wade and Bosh's announcement to Miami (if true), and James's expected announcement to stick with Cleveland, New York will stay a lottery team for 2011.

That's based on a lot of assumptions though, but what's the off-season for if not rampant and unfounded speculation?

The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in times of great moral crisis maintain their neutrality...and Chris Bosh.

We'll be fine. At least now we don't have to worry about the gaping hole at SF we probably would have had if a trade had happened. I also would have been very upset if Morey had totally screwed over Ariza. I'm just gonna see what happens at the trade deadline. If we don't dig a huge whole prior to the trade deadline like last season we should have some playoff success.

This FA season is beginning to amuse me.... Everyone is holding their breath as Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Cleveland, and Miami try to win next year's championship without playing a game. Is everyone forgetting that the championship series goes through the West?

Just as last year proved that King James was not rewarded with a ring after posting the best record in the NBA, this year may very well prove that every single team is only one injury from ultimate failure in capturing the elusive prize of a championship. I will happily suggest that the West will once again produce a champion when the shouting is over after the upcoming season has been played.

It never fails that one of the unpredictable variables messes up everyone's plans. An injury, an unforeseen mid-season trade, or the birth of a new young star performer. As for the Rockets, we have a great depth of talent to work with and are well positioned to jump if an opportunity arises. I am ready for whatever surprises are forthcoming. (Bosh and Wade surrounded by mediocrity will not produce next year's champion.)

Other than point guard, center, shooting forward, and bench, that Miami team will be without a significant weakness...

...and then depression set in....

This will probably come across as sour grapes but I will be laughing when the Heat turn out to not have enough to contend even with Wade and Bosh. It's really not a very smart organization and Bosh going from Toronto to Miami feels more like a lateral move for him than a forward one.

Once Bosh joins Wade, Miami is primed for the December fire sale.

I think we're better off with Scola anyway...

All kidding aside, at least we gave it a shot. Like it has been said, unless by some freak accident Miami lands LeBron too, we are not witnessing the immediate emergence of a new contender. Merely a round of musical chairs is all. I have found it interesting to watch as the east is scrambling to put together a dynasty. Something they've been lacking since MJ. I think only the Spurs and Lakers can lay such a claim for the past decade or more.

I can see us making a move for Brad Miller. He's a cagey veteran who will fit in well backing Yao up, can defend, can hit the jumpers and he's already played within the Adelman system so there'd be no acclimation period. He could also be had at a reasonable price, MLE? anyone know? Unlike getting Bosh, though, a minor move like this makes the Rockets success ride on the health of Yao, where we still have the talent to be right there in the mix at the top of the west, but without the big man, we're back down to a max of 42 wins. So, Miller is available, what other big men are out there available being overshadowed by the James/Bosh/Wade hype? Gortat, Kaman, Camby? Any other possibilities worth considering for Yao backup?

Kade,
Amare for Lee was a wash. Knicks picks look even better if anything.

"Morey knew coming in that this was likely a longshot yet he still refused to parlay assets for a draft trade-up. I think that means there is a targeted backup plan."

Agree and disagree.

Disagree with the former -- Morey most definitely wanted to trade up during the draft, but no one really wanted to part with their picks. We were close to a deal with Philadelphia for the #2, but it was the 76ers who backed out. Morey wanted to deal -- he publicly mused whether or not the cost was too high -- but he wanted to do it.

Agree with the backup plan. There was a thread on clutchfans for a season ticket holder luncheon in which Morey spoke, and he noted 6 specific plans of action for this summer's FA pool. Bosh must be one, and Stoudemire was rumored to be another. I don't know if Miller was part of the consideration as a plan in itself, but we certainly need a true backup Center. That still leaves several yet-unaccounted-for contingencies.

I'm content enough with our current team. They're eager, hungry, and will get some great development time before the trade deadline. Like I noted before, if Yao is healthy, we can still afford to make a big mid-season splash and be instantly thrust into serious contention.

Jordan: I have felt for a long time that Jordan Hill is going to be a very big piece in the Rockets system . He is committed to working out, playing basketball and working on his game 3 out of 4 weeks every month. This guy is huge, he can run and jump and has a knack for rebounding, he will play very well with Yao. I know that “loosing” out on Bosh was tough but we were never really in the conversation to begin with. Jordan Hill is going to play very well for us and you can mark my words, come playoff time the Rockets will be playing longer than the Heat.  (reply with quote)  (reply w/out quote)

I like your comment. When I first saw hill play I boasted that he had the potential to be a combination of Yao Ming and Dwight Howard, with the potential of a great shooting ability as well as extroadinary rebounding and atheletism. I guess only time will tell where he will go, but the guy might become the next best PF in the league.

Jordan,

I like Hill a lot as well. I hope you are accurate in terms of his future and also us playing longer than Mia in the playoffs.

Kade,

Amare Stoudmire is a somewhat equivalent to David Lee without Steve Nash feeding him the ball, so I don't see a change for the knicks... plus they signed him for 20 mil... and they lost 5 players, including tmac and eddie house, to free agency.

I see the knicks going down instead of up.

I have felt for a long time that Jordan Hill is going to be a very big piece in the Rockets system . He is committed to working out, playing basketball and working on his game 3 out of 4 weeks every month. This guy is huge, he can run and jump and has a knack for rebounding, he will play very well with Yao. I know that "loosing" out on Bosh was tough but we were never really in the conversation to begin with. Jordan Hill is going to play very well for us and you can mark my words, come playoff time the Rockets will be playing longer than the Heat.

Brendan,

I'm pretty sure playing with Wade gives him that chance as well. It's a lot easier to fill role player holes and get solid veterans when you have one of the top 2-3 guys in the league, plus another top 15 guy.

@Brendan - I completely agree. Aside from their championship run a few years back, MIA hasn't shown they can put together a competitive team and that has lead to Wade putting alot of miles on his odometer. Of course having Bosh will really help but at what cost? What supporting cast do you now have and do you have the flexibility and know-how to put together a cast that can help you go deep into the playoffs or is it a two-man show? With HOU those answers are already provided: you have the infrastructure and roster in place, you just simply have to insert yourself. Exactly like you said, it seems he wants to play with his friend in a nice city...and in a sense I get that as he's still young and were I in his shoes, I'm not entirely sure I'd disagree with that. But I don't think they're championship material, they'll make the playoffs but they simply don't have depth and the playoffs will expose that.
And like Rahat said, of course it does hurt because he would've made us legitimate contenders, but that doesn't mean we still can't get there through different means. I really think Morey is looking at a 1-3 year picture of team flexibility whilst others are looking at the immediate, and so his patience will definitely pay off for us.

He has said all along he was about winning a championship....but this move does not reflect that. To me this says he wants to play with his friend and live in a nice city.

Why on Earth would NO trade CP3 to Houston, a team in their own division? It's safe to say that IF (huge IF here) they were to trade CP3 that a lot of teams would be interested.

The Knick swap 1st round pick looks a lot worse now before the Amare signing so what's going to have to happen is to see how well or bad the Knicks will be this year up until trade deadline. At that point though it will either be worthless (assume Knicks are better at that point than Rockets) or will be worth potentially a lot (say the Knicks are a lottery team) but at that point just keep the pick and take our chances in the draft. Anyone worth anything in a trade we'll have to take on a huge contract with it.

Charlie Boy,

Hindsight is always 20/20, but there is no doubt that adding Bosh would have put us in elite status in the West. It's now obvious that he cares more about the glamour and attention and playing with his 'boy' D-Wade rather than playing for a winner. The Heat could be a winner eventually, but if they get past the second round in the next two years I'll be shocked.

The worst kept secret in NBA Free Agency leaked out early this morning that Chris Bosh would announce that he will be joining Dwyane Wade on the Miami Heat.

Wade and Bosh are expected to announce their decision on Wednesday, according to the source.

It was not immediately clear whether Bosh will sign with Miami outright or join the Heat through a sign-and-trade deal. Bosh could earn $125 million over six years via sign-and-trade, but only $96 million over five without it.

"Either way, he's definitely going to Miami," the source said.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=5360134

Im just glad that all of this is starting to become a lot clearer. I wanted bosh, but Im not overly upset. I think the entire charade was annoying and I think he made a bad decision (team/wins wise), but at the same time I do not blame him for wanting to go play with his boy DWade, who has a ring. Who in Houston has a ring? And who wouldnt just choose Miami over Houston when solely comparing cities? Ive lived in Houston for years, but if I could be a millionaire superstar living in Miami, I wouldnt think twice. Best of luck to Bosh.

Stephen,

Not a chance in hell we give up Brooks, Hill, Battier, AND 3 draft picks. Thats way too much.

dont know what was worse, bosh's incessant twittering, or the dick riding that went on at 'houston4bosh ... really embarrasing for alot of rocket fans who werent bending over for a bosh deal. give me a healthy yao and co. next year bringing back the 'air raid' offense from the mid 90's and i'll be a happy man. maybe add a 'wow' piece near the deadline.

You know what. After all the latest hoopla and Bosh's latest tweet, if Bosh does announce today that he is signing with Miami, I am going to root against him the rest of his career. The appearance at this point is that he's been playing with the media and enjoying seeing the whole world going gaga about him.

But if he is really confused because someone else is playing games with him and with us, then I'll forgive him. At any rate, Agent Thomas is looking more and more like a prick though, from Houston's point of view at least.

Funny,when I heard LeBron was "donating" the ESPN air-time to charity I thought it was PR cover for leaving Cleveland.
And 1 hour to say where he's going? So there's the LeBron highlight package,talking heads on what it means if he goes to so-and-so,a 5 minute explanation of his decision(and possible thank-you to Cleveland),then a uncomfortable interview w/ESPN(cause no one's going to ask the hard questions),a recap of how it efects the League and a brief interview w/the winning team and fan reaction. Bleh.

Plan B is Chris Paul.
If Shinn can't sell,Paul's gone. He has tested the waters,found no huge outcry,got Paul to sign off on a trade and just has to find best deal he can.Plus there's the CP# liked Scott,West hated Scott factor. So who did Shinn listen to?
Rockets can offer Brooks,Hill,Battier,cash and 3 Firsts(two Knicks and 2013 own)for Paul and side deal of Jeffries for Posey. NO saves @ $2.5mil in salaries,gets a ton of picks,pockets $3mil in cash and can trade Battier to whatever contender they want at deadline. Plus can do same w/Brooks if they really like Collins.
Shinn may be under tax,but will still want to save money.(And if he trades Brooks for a big,Thompson of Sac,Rudy,Pendergraph of Portland)he can afford to trade Okafor to Knicks for Curry.
Ends up in 2011 w/$30mil+ in cap space,draft picks,some young talent and can legitimately sell as rebuilding,just like NO had to do after Katrina.

"Somebody please call Ja Rule so I can make sense of all this"

Hysterical. Props for the Chappelle reference.

bob schmidt's post got me to thinking: What will the Eastern Conference seeding look like?

In order to project the value of New York's 2011 pick, we should figure out the likelihood NY secures a playoff berth. If we’re banking on a lottery-quality pick, we don’t care about seeding for the Top 8, only whether NY is playoff-bound at all.

These were the standings in the East for 2009-2010:
1) Cleveland: 61-21
2) Orlando: 59-23
3) Atlanta: 53-29
4) Boston: 50-32
5) Miami: 47-35
6) Milwaukee: 46-36
7) Charlotte: 44-38
8) Chicago: 41-41

9) Toronto: 40-42
10) Indiana: 32-50
11) New York: 29-53
12) Detroit: 27-55
13) Philadelphia: 27-55
14) Washington: 26-56
15) New Jersey: 12-70

With what we currently know, Orlando, Boston, Atlanta, Milwaukee and Miami should be safe assumptions for qualifying in the Top 8. For now, let's assume James sticks with Cleveland and also claims a berth. If he does not, then:
- going to Miami would only bump them up in seeding, but opens a window for one more team
- going to New Jersey or Chicago would just replace Cleveland's position (not necessarily as #1, just claiming a berth)
- he goes to New York, which would vault them into the playoffs and dramatically reduce the picks' value

(Semi-tangent: I believe that since James is making a televised announcement on Thursday, a big show to publicly humiliate Cleveland would be unlikely and way out of line to fans. I’m not a Cleveland fan and the idea he might do that sickens me. I don't think James is that dense, especially not if the whole announcement requires an entire hour.)

That accounts for six expected berths, so long as he doesn’t choose Miami.

Of the remaining teams, Charlotte has not made any major off-season moves, so to gain a starting point, let’s assume it hovers around par, or 41-41, to establish a baseline for comparison.

Can Chicago beat that? Possibly. They did before, though current cap space signings would have to be taken into consideration. Very possible #7 or #8 again.

Those would be the two for New York to beat. But can anyone else steal the show?

Toronto was close in 2009-2010, but by unloading Bosh, they’re probably not getting anything substantial enough in return to make a definite playoff push. They should drop in the rankings to the lottery. Turkoglu would have to really, really steal the show.

Indiana picked up a few interesting pieces from the draft, but can the rookies lift them by 9 games from a 32-50 season to at least 41-41? 50-50 on lottery chances.

The same is likely to apply to Washington and Philadelphia: even though they picked up some excellent pieces, it’s incredible to suggest that Wall or Turner is a +15 WARP as a rookie, so I believe they are lottery bound.

Detroit is a definite lottery team.

Until New Jersey’s FA situation becomes clearer (and possibly more competitive to New York), we have to assume it’s not a player for a berth in 2010-2011. If they do land a big FA not named James, then New Jersey will be a great contender for #7 or 8, and lock out yet another berth from New York.

We return to the question, then: can New York beat Chicago or Charlotte for a #7 or #8 seeding, given their 29-53 record in 2009-2010? Even if they *don’t* lose Lee, does Stoudemire account for +12 WARP? If they do lose Lee and claim a second FA not named James, Wade, or Bosh, can they really achieve better than 0.500? What if New Jersey gets a decent tier 2 FA?

I think with Wade and Bosh's announcement to Miami (if true), and James's expected announcement to stick with Cleveland, New York will stay a lottery team for 2011.

That's based on a lot of assumptions though, but what's the off-season for if not rampant and unfounded speculation?

The hottest places in hell are reserved for those who in times of great moral crisis maintain their neutrality...and Chris Bosh.

This FA season is beginning to amuse me.... Everyone is holding their breath as Chicago, New York, New Jersey, Cleveland, and Miami try to win next year's championship without playing a game. Is everyone forgetting that the championship series goes through the West?

Just as last year proved that King James was not rewarded with a ring after posting the best record in the NBA, this year may very well prove that every single team is only one injury from ultimate failure in capturing the elusive prize of a championship. I will happily suggest that the West will once again produce a champion when the shouting is over after the upcoming season has been played.

It never fails that one of the unpredictable variables messes up everyone's plans. An injury, an unforeseen mid-season trade, or the birth of a new young star performer. As for the Rockets, we have a great depth of talent to work with and are well positioned to jump if an opportunity arises. I am ready for whatever surprises are forthcoming. (Bosh and Wade surrounded by mediocrity will not produce next year's champion.)

Other than point guard, center, shooting forward, and bench, that Miami team will be without a significant weakness...

...and then depression set in....

This will probably come across as sour grapes but I will be laughing when the Heat turn out to not have enough to contend even with Wade and Bosh. It's really not a very smart organization and Bosh going from Toronto to Miami feels more like a lateral move for him than a forward one.

Once Bosh joins Wade, Miami is primed for the December fire sale.

I think we're better off with Scola anyway...

All kidding aside, at least we gave it a shot. Like it has been said, unless by some freak accident Miami lands LeBron too, we are not witnessing the immediate emergence of a new contender. Merely a round of musical chairs is all. I have found it interesting to watch as the east is scrambling to put together a dynasty. Something they've been lacking since MJ. I think only the Spurs and Lakers can lay such a claim for the past decade or more.

I can see us making a move for Brad Miller. He's a cagey veteran who will fit in well backing Yao up, can defend, can hit the jumpers and he's already played within the Adelman system so there'd be no acclimation period. He could also be had at a reasonable price, MLE? anyone know? Unlike getting Bosh, though, a minor move like this makes the Rockets success ride on the health of Yao, where we still have the talent to be right there in the mix at the top of the west, but without the big man, we're back down to a max of 42 wins. So, Miller is available, what other big men are out there available being overshadowed by the James/Bosh/Wade hype? Gortat, Kaman, Camby? Any other possibilities worth considering for Yao backup?

Trackbacks

  1. [...] with HeatDime MagazineNBA: Chris Bosh joining Dwayne Wade in Miami (Breaking News)DigitalJournal.comRed94 (blog) -ProBasketballNews.com -Bleacher Reportall 770 news [...]

  2. [...] Chris Bosh Will Reportedly Sign with HeatDime MagazineDigitalJournal.com -Hot Cappers -Red94 (blog)all 2,148 news [...]


  •  
  •  
  • "New Post - Kevin Martin and flopping: http://t.co/Mn5vpnEH"
    2 days ago
    "im gonna be livid if its celtics-spurs like i have a feeling its going to be"
    2 days ago
    "New Post - The second round begins: http://t.co/tvz5Gepj"
    3 days ago

  •  
  • All-time Keepers

    A collection of our best from over the years.
  •  
  • Archives

    • 2012 (219)
    • 2011 (428)
    • 2010 (461)
    • 2009 (49)
  • Categories

  •