San Antonio Spurs @ Houston Rockets on 1/27/2014

By Paul McGuire | January 28, 2014 at 7:00 am

Barring a ludicrous collapse, the San Antonio Spurs are going to win 50 games this year, if not 55.  And yet they could very well send zero players to the All-Star game this year.  Tony Parker is currently the only Spur who seems to be likely to make it, but it seems at times that his candidacy is less about his admittedly stellar play, and more about the idea that San Antonio must have someone at the game.  Contrast that with the Houston Rockets, who will definitely have two players there in Howard and Harden, but after two disappointing defeats against the Memphis Grizzlies, must rebound against a team that is five games ahead in the standings.

So how are the Spurs doing it?  How do they win, again and again?  At this stage in the careers of Parker, Duncan, and Ginobilli, San Antonio may not have the superstars that their peers in Miami, OKC, and even Indiana possess – but while they do not have their strengths, San Antonio seems to be a team without any real weaknesses.  They are a top 5 offensive and defensive team.  They can shoot.  Tony Parker can break down defenses, Tim Duncan and Boris Diaw are effective post players, and Manu Ginobilli has delayed retirement a tad longer with a bounce back season.  Most important of all, San Antonio is one of the deepest teams in the league.  While injuries and slumping players have forced Kevin McHale to run 8 or 9 man rotations, legendary coach Gregg Popovich can play 9, 10, and sometimes even 11 players a night depending on the matchups, even with a key injury to their starting center in Tiago Splitter.

Houston has defeated San Antonio in both of their earlier meetings so far, and some people have gone so far as to proclaim that  those contests show that Houston would have a good chance against the Spurs in a playoff series.  Such statements are massive overreactions.  It should be pointed out that Houston outshot the Spurs from long range in both contests, even though the Spurs are one of very best shooting teams in the league and Houston is one of the worst.  And no team in the league has a greater difference between their regular season and playoff play.  It cannot be forgotten how Houston and Dwight Howard’s Lakers fought an intense battle on the final day of the 2012-13 regular season for the privilege of facing the Spurs in the first round – and the Lakers, after winning, used this “advantage” by getting pulverized for four straight games.

In order to win, Houston must run San Antonio off the three point line, and while San Antonio is famous for their preference to get back in transition over grabbing the offensive rebound, Dwight Howard and Terrence Jones must keep an eye on Duncan, Boris Diaw, and Jeff Ayres’s effort on the boards while also staying out of foul trouble.  San Antonio has bodies to spare.  The Rockets do not.

Rotation Spotlight:

Tim Duncan

Tim Duncan

It would not be a surprise if Duncan, at the age of 37, did not make the All-NBA team this year, which incidentally was the age at which Hakeem stopped making that prestigious list as well.  After an incredible season last year, Duncan has somewhat regressed.  Part of that is due to Popovich’s program of resting as he now plays less than 30 mpg, but Duncan’s ranged game is not working quite as often as it used to, and while Duncan is a dangerous finisher and offensive rebounder, he still has a career low PER of “merely” 21.5.  Duncan is without a doubt the greatest player of his generation, but it is San Antonio as a whole which should be feared, not him.

Tip-off is at 7:00 pm CST.  This game is on NBA TV tonight.

 

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Total comments: 38
  • rocketrick says 2 months ago

    Who's big and fast enough to deny KD the ball? Maybe lebron or George? If you try to double him he can pass over just about anyone quite easily. With Westbrook out there that would kill you but even just ibaka and Jackson it's enough for them to keep up especially with their very good defense.


    I agree, trying to deny KD the ball and double teaming KD is always going to be problematic. Still, I believe I would rather force other Thunder players to produce and live with the results. It's pretty much already a given what will happen when the ball stays in KD's hands and the results are typically much better than average for the Thunder and a detriment to their opponent. The other defensive change to make is to understand the sweet spots of the other Thunder players on the floor and deny those and force their players to dribble and shoot to another spot or to pass to another weak spot on the floor.
  • Cooper says 2 months ago Who's big and fast enough to deny KD the ball? Maybe lebron or George? If you try to double him he can pass over just about anyone quite easily. With Westbrook out there that would kill you but even just ibaka and Jackson it's enough for them to keep up especially with their very good defense.
  • rocketrick says 2 months ago

    Thunder also proved how ungodly unstoppable durant is and how high the thunder's ceiling is. Best team in the NBA and the team I'm scared of the rockets getting matched up with in the playoffs and running into a buzz saw.


    No player in the current NBA is completely unstoppable. For instance, with KD the defense should (1) strive to deny KD getting the basketball and when that fails (2) immediately double team KD and force the Thunder's other players (right now, sans Westbrook) to beat you.
  • Buckko says 2 months ago Thunder also proved how ungodly unstoppable durant is and how high the thunder's ceiling is. Best team in the NBA and the team I'm scared of the rockets getting matched up with in the playoffs and running into a buzz saw.
  • Steven says 2 months ago

    At first I laughed at that line up. Then I thought for a minute....and now I really want to try it out. We would be compromised on defense with a lack of speed (we could play zone though), but if they actually use a SG to defend Parsons we can post him up all day long...he's a good enough passer that once they double team it'll be dunk city on the weak side!

    It would probably wind up a disaster, but I'd love it if we tried it next time we play Brooklyn or Milwaukee--just to see.

    And Jones is athletic enough to go up against a bigger 3. Take the Heat. Howard on Bosh, D-Mo on Battier, Jones on LeBron, Parsons on Wade, and Hardin on Chalmers. Yes LeBron will put up 30+, but like the Thunder proved tonight, you keep LeBron off the boards, assist, and steals stats and you have a good chance to win.
  • thejohnnygold says 2 months ago

    At first I laughed at that line up. Then I thought for a minute....and now I really want to try it out. We would be compromised on defense with a lack of speed (we could play zone though), but if they actually use a SG to defend Parsons we can post him up all day long...he's a good enough passer that once they double team it'll be dunk city on the weak side!

    It would probably wind up a disaster, but I'd love it if we tried it next time we play Brooklyn or Milwaukee--just to see.

  • thenit says 2 months ago

    That's one big lineup. Not sure it would work though. But it would end the debate

  • Steven says 2 months ago Wish the Rockets would go

    Howard
    D-Mo
    Jones
    Parsons
    Hardin

    Then we could end the Lin/Bevely debate.
  • thenit says 2 months ago

    Stop talking about Lin needs the ball in his hand we all be better off. There is only one ball on the court.

    Like discussed in the chat, Lin is the same type of player as Harden. Good at driving at the rim with a decent midrange game and acceptable 3 point shot while getting to the FT line. The difference is Lin is a Volvo, a good car almost luxury level, but Harden is the Mercedes. Lin does all the things Harden does, but on a lower level. That is nothing to be ashamed off.

    Lin's numbers are good when he is either the 1st option guard, but he isn't now since we got a better one. There is a reason they put Bev next to Harden because they are just better fit than Lin and Harden.

    I have been under the impression that Lin had a short leash and that McHale didn't like him as a player but he has been fair in my opinion and played tough love with Lin. He had played a lot of minutes and last night Lin played the most minutes out of any rocket if I recall correctly. From Lin's perspective as a selfish player he is unfortunate that someone else is just better at doing what he does best. However he is not selfish and he understand that Harden is better. Like he said in interviews that of course he wants to start but he will do whats best for the team. The best of the team is for him to have the freedom running the 2nd unit and play as 3rd 4th option when he is on the floor with other starters when Harden is on the court.

    Lin is a luxury to have if either Bev or harden goes down, since he is more of a combo guard. Yes the record of him starting without Harden is good but its a small sample size, and I don't think anyone in their right mind can argue we take Lin over Harden.

  • Buckko says 2 months ago

    He's not faking, and he'll be back soon.

  • John P says 2 months ago

    Lin starting vs. not,...usually the rotations work out what is working on any given night. We all know the PG is our weakest spot now (see discussion of a possible Lowry trade in other articles)...and in my mind I would rather just let Harden play PG and get a 3 and D player to be the SG...like the spurs use/d.

    The main issue I see is that the team looks noticeably different without Harden on the court. not necessarily better but the flow is better to get to the open man and the perimeter D is much much better. I have given up home that Harden's D will ever be that good but if we can build more fluidity into the O when Harden is in...rather than him taking tough shots while being well defended, the team will benefit more.

    And where the hell is Asik? I guess the team doesn't want to say or can't say if they think he is faking it but really...is he just waiting to heal until the trade deadline?

  • thejohnnygold says 2 months ago

    The Rockets, with Lin playing alongside Harden, have won a lot of games over the past year and a half. They have a higher winning percentage than the team has with Beverley starting. When McHale is willing to play Lin for 44 minutes and put the ball in his hands, it's pretty clear he understands Lin's talent. It's hard to figure out why McHale can't make a commitment to playing the two players together.


    I love posts like this--just make up stats to prove my opinion. Well, let's take a look shall we. Below are the totals for Lin and Beverley including this year and last year (as quoted above)--regular season only.

    Lin starter: 16-7 + 45-37= 61-43 - 58.6% Lin reserve: 8-6 - 57.1%

    Bev starter: 18-11 - 62.1% Bev reserve: 23-18 +1-0= 24-18 - 57.1%

    Since I suspect someone will cry to use the OKC series here are the amended numbers.

    Lin starter: 61-44 - 58.1% Lin reserve: 8-7 - 53.3%

    Bev starter: 20-14 - 58.8% Bev reserve: 24-19 - 55.8

    patrick_beverley_18.jpg

    "Look at it, Jeremy. Look at my winning percentage"

    jeremy_lin_patrick_beverley.jpg

    "What!?! Noooooooooo!!!! What will my fans think of me!?!?!"

    199937-310-253.jpg

    "LOL j/k...we don't care what anyone thinks...we care about winning, not whining."

    *edit - those numbers are so close. Aside from the 4% regular season difference as starters, they are nearly identical.

  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago

    "The team high 12 goes to Donatas Motiejunas, somehow. D-Mo may have been the worst Rocket to take the floor, and he still went 2-3 on field goals and grabbed 6 boards."
    Not sure what you mean by this. Neither Casspi nor Brooks was as effective as Motiejunas in this game.
    Terrence Jones really stepped up. That's nice to see from such a young player.


    Bigtkirk, that happened to be in reference to the Rocket players +/- results versus the Spurs if I am not mistaken.
  • timetodienow1234567 says 2 months ago Some writers have players they dislike DMo, Lin, Asik, etc.... And their biased are clear. But I still like reading the articles, I just know where they're coming from. Don't expect objectivity from a subjective occupation. Just be happy we have great writers.
  • Bigtkirk says 2 months ago

    "The team high 12 goes to Donatas Motiejunas, somehow. D-Mo may have been the worst Rocket to take the floor, and he still went 2-3 on field goals and grabbed 6 boards."

    Not sure what you mean by this. Neither Casspi nor Brooks was as effective as Motiejunas in this game.

    Terrence Jones really stepped up. That's nice to see from such a young player.

  • redfaithful says 2 months ago

    New post: Houston Rockets 97, San Antonio Spurs 90 - So that's what defense looks like
    By: Forrest Walker

    Tony Parker got a mismatch with Dwight Howard seemingly forty times during the game, but was unable to capitalize.

    Guess it's not a mismatch from the Rockets' point of view...

  • rm90025 says 2 months ago

    The Rockets, with Lin playing alongside Harden, have won a lot of games over the past year and a half. They have a higher winning percentage than the team has with Beverley starting. When McHale is willing to play Lin for 44 minutes and put the ball in his hands, it's pretty clear he understands Lin's talent. It's hard to figure out why McHale can't make a commitment to playing the two players together.

  • rocketrick says 2 months ago

    Rockets passing was stagnant, and even though Lin missed many jumpers some of which he should have made, he came in and started making good assists which got Rockets' offense flowing and elevated TJones' game especially. Actually, Lin wasn't even ball dominant today, but because Harden was out and Lin's passing was needed, he got additional time on court. Once Harden returns, Lin will go back to the corner for below 10 points and 4 assists stats.


    I'm not sure what you mean by the Rockets passing was stagnant tonight. It seemed more fluid than usual (when Harden is on the court doing his thing). The Rockets were doing a good job of feeding the post, whether it be T Jones or D12. And for sure there were times tonight when the Spurs were making an effort to deny Lin the ball for obvious reasons. He continued to attack the basket the entire game, of course not every single time down the court, but consistently throughout the game.

    I hope you're wrong that Lin will average below 10 points and 4 assists once Harden returns for the sake of our team. I believe Lin can become the integral 6th man for the Rockets that every successful team has on their roster once the Rockets return to full health. Sure would be nice to have Asik and Greg Smith in the rotation, too.
  • webattorney says 2 months ago

    Nice post, fun to read. However, just wanted to clarify that Lin played the role as SG tonight in place of Harden. Beverley and Brooks pretty much handled PG. Although with this team, SG and PG roles are interchangeable.

    I think Lin's good game was due to being matched up to smaller guards and not being on the court with a ball dominant player like Harden.

    It was great to see Lin do so well tonight. It was great to see the Rockets do so well tonight and beat the Spurs for the 3rd time this season!

    Rockets passing was stagnant, and even though Lin missed many jumpers some of which he should have made, he came in and started making good assists which got Rockets' offense flowing and elevated TJones' game especially. Actually, Lin wasn't even ball dominant today, but because Harden was out and Lin's passing was needed, he got additional time on court. Once Harden returns, Lin will go back to the corner for below 10 points and 4 assists stats.

  • Buckko says 2 months ago

    This is a game that shows lin's value as harden insurance like asik is howard insurance.

  • Buckko says 2 months ago

    I just want too see lin work with "Real" big men like asik and smith in the paint in the 2nd unit. Sorry demo doesn't have the size and strength to bang and battle in the paint like those 2 brutes. Get the muscle healthy.

  • rocketrick says 2 months ago

    I know I'm in a minority among Rockets fans, but it seems blindingly obvious to me that the team is better when Lin plays a traditional PG role--I believe they're 5 and 1 with him starting in that role this year, and it would be 6 and 0 if James Anderson hadn't hit an unconscious game winner. When Lin is PG, the team seems to play with a plan, with purpose. Other lineups seem to just make it up as they go along--and with so much physical talent, they win more than they lose, but the ceiling isn't that high. Can't say for sure until all the injured players are back, but that's how it seems to me.

    Everyone talks about the greatness of the Spurs, and they are: but we have an analogous cast of players, if the coaches would play them Spurs style (setting multiple screens and finding the open man: what a concept!). There are differences in talent levels in the following comparative list, but they're not huge, and the point is to notice the type of player who could fill each position.

    Lin is like Parker
    Hardin is like Green/Ginobili
    Chandler is like Leonard
    TJones is like Duncan
    Howard is like Splitter

    And the Spurs have the much better bench: Bonner and Diaw especially. I think of Manu as a starter, really, they split the time at SG.

    But in the comparison, we win at SG, SF, and Center; TJones is catching up fast at PF, and Lin could get closer to Parker if they'd let him play. And we're younger, of course.

    I don't know--I think we could do a lot worse than to stop all the experimentation and the role confusion and just try to be like the Spurs: which we sort of are already, it seems to me!


    Nice post, fun to read. However, just wanted to clarify that Lin played the role as SG tonight in place of Harden. Beverley and Brooks pretty much handled PG. Although with this team, SG and PG roles are interchangeable.

    I think Lin's good game was due to being matched up to smaller guards and not being on the court with a ball dominant player like Harden.

    It was great to see Lin do so well tonight. It was great to see the Rockets do so well tonight and beat the Spurs for the 3rd time this season!
  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago Kevingan, we know your a Lin fan, we get it. I like Lin ok but I am a Rockets fan first and foremost and well I think your wrong, we have discussed this before at length here and what can I say, I choose to deal with reality which is Lin leads the second unit.
  • kevingan says 2 months ago

    I know I'm in a minority among Rockets fans, but it seems blindingly obvious to me that the team is better when Lin plays a traditional PG role--I believe they're 5 and 1 with him starting in that role this year, and it would be 6 and 0 if James Anderson hadn't hit an unconscious game winner. When Lin is PG, the team seems to play with a plan, with purpose. Other lineups seem to just make it up as they go along--and with so much physical talent, they win more than they lose, but the ceiling isn't that high. Can't say for sure until all the injured players are back, but that's how it seems to me.

    Everyone talks about the greatness of the Spurs, and they are: but we have an analogous cast of players, if the coaches would play them Spurs style (setting multiple screens and finding the open man: what a concept!). There are differences in talent levels in the following comparative list, but they're not huge, and the point is to notice the type of player who could fill each position.

    Lin is like Parker

    Hardin is like Green/Ginobili

    Chandler is like Leonard

    TJones is like Duncan

    Howard is like Splitter

    And the Spurs have the much better bench: Bonner and Diaw especially. I think of Manu as a starter, really, they split the time at SG.

    But in the comparison, we win at SG, SF, and Center; TJones is catching up fast at PF, and Lin could get closer to Parker if they'd let him play. And we're younger, of course.

    I don't know--I think we could do a lot worse than to stop all the experimentation and the role confusion and just try to be like the Spurs: which we sort of are already, it seems to me!

  • Steven says 2 months ago

    I hate +/- stats, because even though Jones kept us alive the first half, the rest of the team played like crap, thus giving him a bad score on that stat. Jones was great 1st half, lin and howard finished the game and good job demo for the big play down the stretch.

    Game to game the +/- stat is a bit volatile but over a course of the season it is a good metric. Especially when compared too the +/- stat when you are on the court vs when you are off.
  • rocketrick says 2 months ago It's great watching D12 battle. There is no doubt in my mind he desperately wants a ring.
  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago I still think Howard is crucial even when he struggles making the shot. The thing with post play is that with each post up Howard is breaking down the opposing defense, getting fouls and wearing opposing big men out, in this case that was Duncan. There is no measurement for that but it effects the game and the players on both teams.

    I am glad to see McHale emphasizing post ups.
  • thenit says 2 months ago I disagree that DMo was the worst rocket. I think everyone played a solid game. The 3pgs did a good job on containing the shooters and DMos tip on a missed ft was huge when it was a 4 point game which resulted in Lin scoring a bank shot with 1.30 left i believe in the 4th. That sealed the game for us. Great defensive effort and hopefully we can get this going tomorrow with or without harden.
  • Buckko says 2 months ago

    I hate +/- stats, because even though Jones kept us alive the first half, the rest of the team played like crap, thus giving him a bad score on that stat. Jones was great 1st half, lin and howard finished the game and good job demo for the big play down the stretch.

  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago The originator of hack-a-Shaq is Nelly right?

    I agree, this team showed potential as a defensive team tonight.
  • Red94 says 2 months ago New post: Houston Rockets 97, San Antonio Spurs 90 - So that's what defense looks like
    By: Forrest Walker

    The Rockets and the Spurs were in a bind. Houston hadn't lost three in a row all season, and San Antonio hadn't lost two in a row before. Either Houston was going to win and ruin things for the Spurs, or San Antonio would give the Rockets their longest losing streak yet. Given that James Harden sat out the game with a bruised thumb, and given how poorly the Rockets lost to the Memphis Grizzlies, things looked bleak for Houston. Something remarkable would have to happen for Houston to pull this off. And then that something happened: the Rockets played defense.

    This was something the Rockets had been leading up to the entire season, and their recent struggles with defensive-minded teams were a dead giveaway that they were about to lay out this development. And then, when they announced that James Harden was out to go along with Ömer Aşık, Greg Smith, Francisco Garcia and Ronnie Brewer, the pieces were all in place. The time to put all their eggs in the defensive basket had come. It turns out that those eggs hatched, or sold, or whatever it is you hope the eggs do in that idiom. Houston won again, and this time they won because they played some D.

    James Harden sitting isn't really a coincidence. He's a flamethrower on offense but takes a more relaxed approach on the other end. Yes, his poor defense was part of the equation, but missing his offense made the team need to play the other end of the floor even more. It's also no coincidence that a Spurs team missing Kawhi Leonard, Tiago Splitter, Danny Green and Manu Ginobili for half the game would do poorly on offense. Comparing injury reports is a fool's errand with these two teams, however, so it's best just to take a solid win for what it was.

    The Rockets were willing to switch on some pick and rolls and not on others, and it was good to see them rotate with more confidence. Shooters still got open and mismatches were still found, but Houston was largely able to avoid punishment on those fronts. Tony Parker got a mismatch with Dwight Howard seemingly forty times during the game, but was unable to capitalize. The Rockets closed out on shooters most of the night, and they were rewarded with a win even though began to cough up the ball with reckless abandon.

    Winning with defense is a step in the right direction, as is Terrence Jones metamorphosing into a quality starting player. He scored 21 points on 9-12 shooting, grabbed 9 rebounds and had only 1 turnover. He also played solid defense and is able to dribble the ball like a guard at times. He also had a team low +/- of -3. The team high +12 goes to Donatas Motiejunas, somehow. D-Mo may have been the worst Rocket to take the floor, and he still went 2-3 on field goals and grabbed 6 boards.

    Dwight Howard was the most notable player, as he began the night being utterly dominated by Tim Duncan on the block and ended up as a force of nature. His 5-15 shooting looks poor, but included a 0-9 start and a 5-6 finish. His 23 point finish included 25 free throws, of which he hit 13. He's staying about 50% on free throws, which is sort of vaguely good enough in smite-a-Dwight situations, and that came up yet again. The originator of hack-a-Shaq tried his hand at the common strategy but found little purchase to climb out of the hole the Spurs were in.

    Nothing went right for the Rockets in the first quarter, but they stayed with it and were eventually able to find what worked. What worked, in the end, was putting their energies into trying to deny the Spurs their preferred shot, working the ball inside and passing around to the open man. They finally faced a team that doesn't openly pummel other teams inside and finally played the way they've talked about playing. Even without James Harden, even against a team like the Spurs, it was enough. Sometimes, you win with defense.

  • Cooper says 2 months ago Certainly a quality win, especially without harden and no one shooting especially well except jones. I remember during the heat spurs game Sunday Jeff van or someone mentioned the spurs hadn't beaten any of the top teams from the west if that is correct not a good sign for them over half way through the season.
  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago Good win for the Rockets. Dwight steady as rock despite a rough first half offensively and Jones and Lin stepping up in Harden's absence was a good sign. I like the few plays where the Rockets got the momentum/lead with Beverley's steal/shot and Howard's dunk (Lin assisted).

    That Parson's dunk in response to Manu's dunk was a great response.
  • Steven says 2 months ago Jeremy Lin had a nice game tonight since Hardin wasn't able to go. Hopefully it shows teams what he can do when he gets to dominate the ball. Rockets are now 3-0 against the almight Spurs with the last game back in the Toyota Center. When was the last time the Rockets swept the Spurs in the regular season?
  • SDrake says 2 months ago

    Terrance Jones has been the MVP of this team so far this season. Howard and Harden get most of the attention, but without Jones, this season would be a lot worse. He's been consistent with his performances every game. He just needs to stay healthy. Another strong game tonight.

  • feelingsupersonic says 2 months ago So no Harden tonight and some key Spurs are missing as well.

    Also of note, the Rockets have not lost 3 in a row and the Spurs have not lost 2 in a row so something has to give as Harden said earlier today.

    I would like to see the Rockets feed Dwight with Lin as his Robin tonight. Jones and Parsons need to rebound and get out on the wings. My hope is that the Rockets have enough confidence against the Spurs that they execute defensively down the stretch. Beverley needs to pester Parker and foul trouble could break any Rocket momentum.
  • John P says 2 months ago

    ...I still fear Tim Duncan on his own...and his team. Just saying...

  • rocketrick says 2 months ago The game is NOT on NBA TV if Rockets fans live in the Houston region and do not subscribe to Comcast. Just saying.....