Should The Rockets Use Their Amnesty Option On Luis Scola?

The new CBA’s Amnesty provision is a blessing for general managers, ironic torture for owners, an escape route for players, and really, really fun for anyone who enjoys speculating the future plans of millionaire professional athletes. It’s viewed as a get out of jail free card by most, but not every franchise is crippled by a terrible contract, so there’s no chance of a situation presenting itself where all 30 teams choose to exercise their right to axe an overpaid player on December 9th. But there’s also, reportedly, no expiration date, presenting a very interesting situation for those teams who don’t have the time right now to fill their cap space up with crummy replacements just to reach the higher minimum salary floor. In doing so, teams would be clawing themselves out of quicksand by kicking their legs and flailing their arms instead of using the new provision for what it was meant to be, an overhanging tree branch.

Here are this year’s Amnesty specifics compared with the last CBA, according to ESPN.com’s Larry Coon:

Amnesty provision

• 2005 CBA: One player can be waived prior to the start of the 2005-06 season. The salary of the waived player will not count toward the luxury tax.

• 2011 CBA: One player can be waived prior to the start of any season (only one player can be amnestied during the agreement, and contracts signed under the new CBA are not eligible). The salary of the waived player will not count toward the salary cap or luxury tax. Teams with cap room can submit competing offers to acquire an amnestied player (at a reduced rate) before he hits free agency and can sign with any team.

• Who benefits? As with the amnesty provision in the 2005 agreement, this provision allows teams to kick one bad contract to the curb. The benefits to amnesty are greater now than they were in 2005 — 100 percent of the player’s salary is removed for both cap and tax purposes. The other big change is that teams are allowed to pocket their amnesty card to use later — so teams that managed their cap well to this point benefit because they don’t have to use it or lose it.

Teams with cap room can benefit greatly from the Amnesty clause by being able to submit a competing offer to claim an Amnestied player at a reduced rate. For example, if Cleveland uses its Amnesty provision on Baron Davis, a team that is $5 million below the salary cap can submit a $5 million offer to acquire Davis’ contract. If that offer is the highest, the team acquires Davis and is responsible for $5 million of his salary — with Cleveland responsible for the balance. This happens before Davis becomes a free agent and can sign on his own with a team like Miami.

If Houston were to use their Amnesty clause right now, the only logical answer would be castaway Hasheem Thabeet. But if they were to hold onto it, like the little kid who whips out the bag of chips he saved from lunch just as everyone else’s stomachs are grumbling, waiting for the bus ride home, then options are opened; things could get interesting. Looking at the team’s salary situation over the next four seasons, only one player is signed through 2015: a then 35-year-old Luis Scola. And, according to ShamSports, even though the fifth year of his $47 million extension is not guaranteed unless performance milestones are reached, at just over $11 million he’s risky.

I wrote in excess a couple months ago about Luis Scola and whether or not his best value to the Houston Rockets going forward is as trade bait. All the points in that article are still alive and well today, but in that I spoke of a trade; a guarantee of something substantive in return, in the form of another human being. Here we’re talking about Amnestying him, which would give the Rockets definite cap space and tax security, but no absolute guarentee they’d be able to improve themselves on the court by spending his due money elsewhere.

Reasons Against Amnestying Luis Scola: The case for using the Amnesty clause on Scola is a sensitive one. He’s the lone veteran on a team of rugrats, and removing him would thrust Kevin Martin into the dual role of veteran leader/leading scorer (unless Chuck Hayes is brought back, but that’s looking unlikely). At the moment Scola could be the best overall player on Houston’s roster. What he brings every night is a ruggedness that’s hard to acquire in someone so integral towards an offensive game plan, yet that’s who he is—one of the toughest players in the league to place inside a descriptive box.

Throughout his four years in the league, Scola has missed only a handful of games, showing serious durability. His usage percentage and scoring have incrreased, while his % of shots assisted went from 70% in 2009 to 64% last year, meaning he’s improving his ability to score on his own as a dependable offensive option. It sounds crazy, but Scola is improving each and every year (how many players post their best year when they’re 30?). Smart money says his game is bound to begin declining any minute now, but what if it doesn’t? What if Scola keeps himself in pristine condition for the next five years and somehow manages to incorporate an unseen crafty maneuver into his game during each offseason? His scoring numbers will fall, but what if he transforms himself from year to year and still carves out an efficient niche within the team’s offensive flow?

If they choose to use their Amnesty on him, the next question would be when. After next year? The year after? The year after that? People love playing with Luis Scola—he’s not only a willing passer, but he’s pretty good at it. He works hard on both ends to make the lives of his teammates that much easier. Losing him could make Houston a slightly less attractive destination to would be free agent signings.

 

Reasons For Amnestying Luis Scola: Right now, as I write this today, Scola is 31-years-old and scheduled to make $8.5 million. That’s not horrendous by any stretch of the imagination, but as we move ahead the contract stretches further and further away from what he’d receive on the open market. Under the assumption Scola is a human being, he’ll soon deteriorate as a basketball player, one who will be clogging up a team’s salary that should be spent on the hopeful superstar free agent. With the forward situation in Houston quickly becoming a log jam, how long can it be assumed Scola holds off Morris from taking his minutes? Or Patterson? Paying Scola $10 million to average 20 minutes a night would be disastrous.

If they choose to do it two years from now, his veteran leadership might not be needed, with Kyle Lowry coming into his own and the rest of the roster being a total toss up. There’s only so long the team can hang in the middle before serious frustration kicks in and demonstrative moves are made. If the Rockets choose to go the rebuilding route, this would be a great way to kick-start the process. It’s tough to swallow, but at some point down the line, using the amnesty on Luis Scola could be the sturdy branch Houston has been waiting for.

 

Twitter: @ShakyAnkles

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