Heading into the second half tonight, 34 games in, the two major themes we’re looking at are ‘sustainability’ and ‘trades.’ Sustainability has been a key factor so far this season: Sam Dalembert could not sustain his initial production and became difficult to discern from Jordan Hill. Kyle Lowry initially supplied elite production, leading many to wonder if he was amongst the game’s very best point guards. As he tapered off, it became clear that that clearly is not the case, but we do now have a sufficiently sizable sample size to conclude that he’s All-Star caliber.
The questions now are whether Parsons can sustain his defensive production and whether the team as a whole can sustain its current pace.
I’d answer in the affirmative to both questions. When rookies hit the wall, it’s typically due to tired legs affecting their shots. Parsons hasn’t exactly been setting the world ablaze with his offense; his value to this team is as a defender. While the slightest bit of fatigue can affect a jumper–players start overcompensating, using less lower body on their shots–you normally don’t see a good defender start getting burned because he’s ‘kind of tired.’ It takes a lot more than such a low standard (ie: third night of back-to-back-to-back etc.) I think Parsons will be ok.
As for the team, 34 games in, we have a pretty good indication of what to expect. It’s a pretty good team that will usually win, is sometimes susceptible to clunkers, but it almost never blown out. They’re average defensively (15th in the league) and around the upper echelon on offense (9th). They have absolutely no answer for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Barring a trade or some unforeseen injury, the Rockets will finish somewhere between 5-8. Depending on the matchups, they could win a playoff series, or even two. I cannot recall such a great state of parity in the West since I’ve been following the NBA.
The question on everyone’s minds pertains to trades. Will Gasol finally be reeled in? It seems now almost as if everyone is holding their breaths, expecting the inevitable. The Lakers clearly want to part with Pau, but no one else seems too willing as a taker; Gasol is 31.
Regardless, you can almost expect that a deal of some sort will be made. Such has been par for the course in the Morey regime. Will Kevin Martin finally be dealt? The guard was acquired to pair with Yao and force teams early into the bonus. He seems a bit out of place with this current squad but still has value. How about Scola? The clock is ticking on the window to bring some return on the deteriorating power forward. And the biggest questions will surround Courtney Lee and Goran Dragic, both free agents this summer. Last season, of its three free agents, the team opted to trade Aaron Brooks and Shane Battier, and hold onto Chuck Hayes. Brooks did not fit in and regarding Battier, they were, at the time, out of the race. This year, the Rockets are firmly in the playoff picture with Dragic and Lee each playing major roles yet each finding themselves behind higher-priced starters. Management has interesting decisions to make. In 2010, I wondered aloud if teams could afford two high priced options at the same position (with Aaron Brooks’ impending free agent status and Kyle Lowry already resigned.) Again, that issue faces us squarely in the eye.
