How realistic is a Houston Rockets championship?

There are many reasons to believe the Rockets might have a legitimate shot at this year’s title. They went 4-0 against the team with the best record in the league. They have two of the top 10 players. They have one of the best records in the league since January. They are recovering from a host of injuries. They have a favorable draw. They have Patrick Beverley, who will eat you for an afternoon snack.

But what are their chances really? How do they compare to teams like the Spurs, Heat, Thunder, Clippers, or Pacers? To find out, I looked at the projections from three reputable sources: Vegas Futures, Hollinger Playoff Odds, and Sports Club Stats.

According to these sources, only 4-6 teams are more likely to win the 2014 NBA Title than the Rockets. That’s the good news. The bad? The Rockets’ actual chances are about 4-6%.

Put another way, the Rockets are about as likely to win this year’s championship as Dwight Howard is to sink a half-court shot. That’s the plain and painful truth.

The chart below shows the estimated championship probabilities from the three aforementioned sources (Vegas Futures, Hollinger Playoff Odds, and Sports Club Stats). As you can see, the championship is very likely to be awarded to one of five teams: San Antonio, Miami, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, or Indiana. The Rockets are next in line, but effectively out of reach.

The bottom line: The Rockets have a very good team, good enough to challenge the best teams in the league, but in all likelihood not good enough to win 4 out of 7 games in four straight series.

2014 NBA championship odds

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Total comments: 7
  • Buckko says 5 months ago Seriously blood moon on Passover on the night they secured home court and displayed the trophies in the locker room. It has been foretold.
  • bob schmidt says 5 months ago

    The variables that exist game to game are impossible to predict, so we play the games to "find" the champion each year. Houston has enough depth and to win with even less than a perfect game each time out on the court. If OKC does not get a great game from KD, they are harder pressed to win than Houston is if Harden has a tough game, IMO. The Spurs have a similar problem, if Parker is not hot, they can find it hard to win. The Heat have to have LeBron performing to win, and so forth.

    Every team out there has potential fatal flaws in that their talent is heavily invested in just a few players, including our Rockets. I think that we have a slight edge over most of the playoff teams in that regard. Sure, we could lose. But, I'll bet that most teams in the playoffs are not anxious to face us if we are basically healthy. We have a good chance for success unless "lady luck" abandons us somewhere along the way.

    Houston is no less likely to win than anyone else in my mind, to answer the basic question of this topic. We are solid as a team, and have the talent. Now, we have to take the prize...

  • Alituro says 5 months ago

    I don't disagree with this. But then again, I'd imagine our 94/95 6th-seeded team probably had an even smaller chance of winning the championship. So there's always room for hope.

    Exactly, there is nothing certain. That team was 47-35 and 6th in the West. Our projected path couldn't be more favorable this season with our record against POR and SAS.. If we pass them, then the WCF will be tough, but hopefully the opponents are embattled enough by that time to even the playing field. We would beat whoever emerges out of the east if we get that far. SO there's 3/4 favorable matchups in our path to a ring. The teams above us can't boast the same thing, especially with SA up against MEM in the 1st round. Nor the Clippers against DAL then OKC, nor OKC against GS then LAC... Clippers against Dallas is the only other favorable 1st round match-up for the home team other than our 1st round..

    Don't get me wrong, I don't realistically expect us to get past the 2nd round, but the stars sure have lined up in our favor more than just about anyone else's this season..

  • Steven says 5 months ago 4 4 4 6
  • rockets best fan says 5 months ago

    BELIEVE AGAIN...................GO ROCKETS

  • vonsteve says 5 months ago

    I don't disagree with this. But then again, I'd imagine our 94/95 6th-seeded team probably had an even smaller chance of winning the championship. So there's always room for hope.

  • Buckko says 5 months ago

    Blood Moon Omen. I believe.