The Rockets are in a tough spot right now. Unlike many boom or bust teams, our management seems to be tight roping the fine line of combining a “win now” philosophy with “rebuilding.” We have a unique combination of both players in their prime and young players with room to grow. This approach can only be maintained with an advantaged eye for talent, manipulating drafts and trades to acquire new prospects while still winning each season. The biggest risk of this strategy, unfortunately, is prolonged mediocrity; maintaining a good team year after year, but never acquiring the top-level talent required to be a great team.
After a rough start, the Rockets may be showing signs of life, but we are still sitting at 3-6. The mentality of a Rockets follower this season is quickly shifting from “what are our current prospects?” to “what are our future prospects?” And the progression in the latter thought process immediately becomes “who are our prospects?” After all, having young prospects waiting to break out is a comforting feeling, especially during a season short on optimism. Of the players I consider prospects on the Rockets, the biggest names right now are Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, Patrick Patterson, Ish Smith, and Jermaine Taylor (and maybe Lowry and Lee, depending on your definition). Here is a quick overview of these players*:
Budinger – As far as potential is concerned, his ceiling may be limited. Last year, 85% of Budinger’s field goals were assisted. So far this year, he is sitting at 75%. In a nutshell, he either cannot or will not create his own shots. I believe it is the former, which limits him to a solid offensive role player at best in this league. There have been many examples of athletic, unselfish shooters helping championship teams, such as Rick Fox, Bruce Bowen, and Trevor Ariza. The difference is that Budinger has not been able to consistently translate his athleticism to the defensive end. With a backcourt already short on defense, Chase’s minutes will continue to be limited unless he can prove to be a reliable defender.**
Patterson – He had a respectable summer league, but obviously limited data restrains any statistics-based analysis for him at the NBA-level. I do think it is interesting that we used a lottery pick on an “NBA-ready” player, only to stash him away in the D-League.
Smith – His scoring efficiency is terrible (31.7 FG%, 35.4 eFG%). Generally hand size and arm length are negatively correlated with outside shooting and positively correlated with inside scoring (think Rondo vs. Stojakovic), but Smith seems to be both a poor shooter (39.7 eFG% on jump shots) and ineffective around the rim (14.3% on inside shots). On the other hand, Smith has shown the potential to be an elite passer. With 18 assists on the year and only one passing turnover (ratio of 18.0), he is among the top passers in the league. Compared to Chris Paul (17.3), Rajon Rondo (5.4), Jason Kidd (4.2), and Steve Nash (2.7), there is a lot to like and it will be interesting to see if he can stay in the rotation when Brooks comes back.
Taylor – This is a sad story, as he really hasn’t had an extended opportunity to shine (minus one 3-game stretch last March when he averaged 14.3 points in about 30 minutes/game). Jermaine has the potential to fit the off-the-bench spark mold of Von Wafer, but after almost getting dumped for Dampier, his future as a Rocket is in jeopardy.
Hill – I saved the best for last. Jordan Hill was selected 8th overall in the 2009 draft, ahead of budding stars DeMar DeRozan, Brandon Jennings, Jrue Holiday, Ty Lawson, and Darren Collison. With his size, athleticism, and quizzical flashes of brightness, he has perhaps the most potential of these listed players. However, Hill is still learning the game and has some major areas in need of improvement.
Let’s talk offense first. Hill is the best offensive rebounder on the team, with an ORR of 9.7. That doesn’t say much, however, as that number is good for 29th in the league among qualified power forwards. He has a 45.8 FG% this year, which is poor for a post player. Looking a little deeper, his shooting percentage from inside is excellent (70.0%), but only 42% of his attempts are inside. The rest (58%) are jump shots, and he is shooting a shameful 28.6 FG% in that category. This is about the clearest indication of poor shot selection that you will ever see. Given his age and basketball experience (he picked up the sport in the 9th grade), his poor shot selection is most likely a combination of a) the offensive system putting him in bad locations on the floor, and b) the coaching staff encouraging him to expand his game and perhaps complement Yao more effectively. Either way, for now the coaching staff is responsible for working to make things simple for Hill on offense and putting him in position to play to his strengths. Jordan, please stick to the dunks and hook shots.
As for defensive rebounding, Hill is considerably less productive than Scola with a DRR of 15.2 (48th among PF) versus Scola’s 24.0 (12th among PF). For Hill’s size and athleticism, this is a cause for concern. Why is he rebounding at such a low rate? You could argue that he is being drawn away from the basket to contest shots, but that doesn’t seem to stop Dwight Howard. You could argue that our defensive rotations leave him away from the rim during shot attempts, but that doesn’t stop Scola. If there is an easy explanation, I haven’t found it yet. Generally the propensity to get “50/50 balls” is largely a product of intangible attributes such as hustle, will, and intensity. This may be something to pay attention to in the future, as a player devoid of those attributes ultimately has a limited upside.
On a positive note, Hill’s most positive contribution on the court has been shot blocking. The 6-10 forward is averaging 4.75 blocks per 48 minutes. That’s good for 5th in the league among qualified players, better than Dwight Howard (4.41), Josh Smith (4.35), and Tim Duncan (3.30). I’ll dive deeper into blocks another time, but his defensive presence cannot be understated. One of his biggest weaknesses defensively is his awareness on defensive rotations. He is mentally slow on the court, which is probably a product of his late start in basketball. If he can get those rotations down, his minutes will increase significantly. Overall, in terms of current value-add and potential for growth, Hill is the Rockets’ best prospect. There is little doubt he has the physical abilities to be an impact player, so his ceiling will only be limited by his work ethic and focus.
Looking at this list, I am feeling, at best, mildly optimistic about our young crop of players. The odds of any of them emerging as stars on in this league are minimal. The best chance of developing a star in the next few years is probably via our draft picks (assuming they are not traded), but 2011 will be a weak draft class, and there is always the potential for both the Rockets and Knicks to have non-lottery picks.
It may be premature to say that we are rebuilding. But if we’re not rebuilding, then we’re trying to win now, right? After 9 games, it sure doesn’t feel that way. A trade to land another star would cement a “win now” approach, but every day we hold on to those picks, we move a little bit closer towards ”rebuilding” with up to three mid-first round selections in the next two drafts. At some point, management will have to commit to a direction for this team’s future. Until that happens, Rockets fans may be in for an insufferable period of prolonged mediocrity.
*Stats updated through Saturday; taken primarily from ESPN.com and 82games.com. The holdup was 82games, so I didn’t update anything else to keep it consistent. Hill’s ORR fell to 8.4, DRR rose to 15.8, and BLKP48MIN fell to 4.10 after 16 minutes of action Sunday night.
**After a few more weeks, there will be enough data to start looking more closely at Budinger’s ’10-’11 defensive and other advanced statistics, but for now, take my word for it.
