A brief rundown: the Rockets made a multi-team trade with the Knicks and the Kings last February.
On the Rockets-Knicks side, Houston got the right to swap first round picks with Knicks in 2011 as long as it is not the number one overall pick, and the Rockets lay claim to the Knicks 2012 first round pick as long as it is outside the top five picks (in which case the claim is rolled over to the proceeding draft and so on until 2015 when it turns into second round picks).
The Knicks got Tracy McGrady. And his desire to succeed despite all obstacles.
The Rockets got Knicks’ 2009 First Round pick, Jordan Hill, and Jared Jeffries bloated contract.
The Knicks got enough cap space in the summer of 2010 to raise and, subsequently, crush the hopes of their fans like a piñata at a Quinceañera party. Except instead of candy, out spilled five future years of mediocrity.
(Seriously, what is the difference between Amare Stoudemire and Allan Houston at this point? This is not a rhetorical question…Both played for absurd contracts that essentially pay by the point. Expectations of returning the team to glory of years past are the same. Both players missed significant time due to injury…The answer is, as Alex Trebec would say: “Height. We were looking for height.“ By the way, if you enjoy laughter, it is worth watching the 4:40 mark of that video.)
Besides making a large group of Northerners feel worse than they already did, the real value for the Rockets is the right to swap picks in the 2011 draft. Yes, Jordan Hill has potential. But he is a known commodity after a year of NBA service. If the Rockets are using the pick as a piece of a trade, nothing entices a stupid GM like the projected potential of a high draft pick. Below are some more reasons the 2011 pick is the most valuable of what the Rockets got from the Knicks, in the context of a potential trade.
No. 1 The picks are assets that do not count against the salary cap until the summer of their respective draft. You can think of them as liquid assets that are easily transferrable unlike players with contracts that must be fit within certain parameters. If something is easy to move, it has that much more value.
No. 2 The second Knicks’ pick is top five protected. Historically, value decreases significantly after the 5th pick. This is well described by Elena Bergeron: “No-brainer picks at the top of the pile typically account for an estimated wins average somewhere between 7.5 and 4.5 every year. Between picks 6 and 10, the difference in how a potential draftee will sway a team’s fortune barely varies more than a single game. So, even if your team has a lottery pick, the talent available once the first five are off the table isn’t comparable.”
No. 3 The Knicks would seem to be more likely to have a worse record in the 2010/11 season than subsequent seasons, having had only one off-season to improve their roster (see reason 4) from a pathetic 29-53 campaign.*
By the 2012 draft, the Knicks will have had two summers to rebuild and improve their record. The Knicks will have about $42 million in committed salary heading into next summer. That allows them about $16 million to upgrade their roster further, depending on where the cap is next year.
No. 4 The Knicks did upgrade their roster heading into this season…just like your friend upgraded his living situation from a rent he couldn’t afford to his parent’s house. If Amare’ Stoudemire, Raymond Felton, Ronny Turiaf, and Anthony Randolph are considered upgrades, then who were they running out before?
To answer that question, the Knicks’ most heavily used starting rotation last year was Chris Duhon, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, Jared Jeffries, and David Lee. Better combinations could be found in a port-o-john. This upcoming season, the Knicks could conceivably start Ray Felton, Bill Walker, Gallinari, Anthony Randolph, and Stoudemire.
Felton is good at…um…running fast while dribbling. He continues a long line of Tar Heel ineptitude at the PG spot (video of one of my favorite basketball moments ever).
Bill Walker was going to be good, and I hope he overcomes all that bad luck. After this season.
Danilo Gallinari is a prototypical Euro import: shooter, long, white, and no defense (which could lead us to an inappropriate prophylactic joke (as opposed to the appropriate ones)). His 42.3 FG% is undermined because most of his shots are from behind the arc, where he sports a 57.2% eFG% (a measure that weighs made 3 point shots 1.5x more than made 2 pointers because, well, they are worth 1 more point which is 0.5 the value of a 2 pointer). His rebounding improved to almost five a game last year, his second in the NBA.
Randolph has the potential to be like Chris Webber – a PF who can score and pass and call timeouts. But how many performers reach their potential after 3 years of disappointment? Besides Lindsey Lohan.
Stoudemire is good if you like efficient scoring…on both ends of the floor, because he does not play defense (just like Allan Houston).
In summation, the Rockets took advantage of the Knicks’ desperation to sign a star this summer past. Houston’s only negative in the trade last season, Jared Jeffries’ contract, is now an asset. Besides his contract expiring after this season, Jeffries is a great defender who can defend four positions. Any team hoping to contend with the Heat or Lakers could use some of that. The draft picks are fantastic assets because of the hope they inspire. And the 2011 pick inspires more than the 2012 option.
*The Knicks spent $2,918,208 for each of their 29 wins last season on player salaries alone. For comparison, the Rockets spent $1,649,472 for each of their 42 wins, and the Cavaliers spent $1,391,957 for each of their league leading 61 wins.
