2013-14 Regular Season Retrospective

It is the nature of modern sports coverage and fandom to be constantly looking onwards to what is to come. The playoffs are going to be awesome this year, some of the kids in the draft are going to be superstars and you’d better have one eye on your cap sheet for when all the free agents become available. But often this focus on the future at the expense of the past leaves us makes us forget the context of the situations we find ourselves in. People erase the predictions that went horribly awry and re-adjust their expectations based on current performance. So to avoid falling into that trap, let’s take a look back at some of the big questions that surrounded the Rockets before the season began and see where the team got to in achieving them.

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The Rockets Daily – April 16, 2014


The Perfect Roster - Brad Doolittle put together an ideal roster, based of this year’s production and cap number, that would not only play great together, but also fit under the constraints of a typical GM’s allowance (75.7 mil).  LeBron was, of course, the main attraction and the rest of the list was made of guys you’d expect like Kevin Love, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson.  The starting point guard and “Glue Guy”, though, may have caught some by surprise.

Glue Guy: Patrick Beverley

Few people seemed to realize the magnitude of the blow the Houston Rockets nearly suffered when it appeared that they’d lost Beverley for the season with a knee injury. Beverley leads the Rockets in RPM at plus-4.88, and also has posted 2.8 WARP on the season. His ability to hound opposing star point guards is essential, and while he’s not a traditional playmaker, he doesn’t need to be on this roster. Nevertheless, Beverley’s ability to knock down corner 3s gives him offensive utility. Finally, with a salary of just $788,872, Beverley offers as much bang for the buck as any role player in the league.

Snooze – Bill Simmons and Jalen Rose are in the middle of their Playoffs Preview, and while a lot of it has been silly back and forth, they have covered some interesting topics.  One of the items up for discussion today was their pick for sleepers outside of the top-5 (Miami, San Antonio, OKC, LAC and Indiana).  [read more…]

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On the year, LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 23.2 points and 11.1 boards while shooting 45.8% from the floor.  Against the Houston Rockets, in four games this year, Aldridge put up 26.8 points and pulled down 15.5 boards, shooting 44.7%.  He averaged 36.2 minutes per game against the entire league but played 39.1 minutes per contest against Houston.

Glancing at Aldridge’s shot distribution, against the league, he really likes the midrange elbow area.  Spanning from just beyond the free throw line over left towards the corner, Aldridge hoisted about 33% of his overall attempts.  That far left spot is also his most lethal area – Aldridge hit on 48% of his attempts from that zone.

Aldridge against the league

Against Houston, Aldridge is putting up just 27% of his shots from that free throw line to corner area, but more interestingly, in his favorite zone, the dead elbow area, his attempts are down from 12% of total attempts against the entire league to 4% against the Rockets.  For whatever reason, Aldridge wasn’t shooting as much from one of his pet spots against the Rockets this year.  When he did get a look from those areas, he was pretty lethal.  100% (4/4) from that same zone, and 46% from the zone just inside the 3 point line on the left.



In this series, Rockets fans will be grateful Daryl Morey didn’t look ahead and sell off Omer Asik for some draft picks because Aldridge is going to be seeing a ton of the Turkish center.  While I expect Terrence Jones to start Game 1, there is no doubt in my mind that Kevin McHale will be quick with the hook to relieve Jones with Asik if Aldridge gets going early.

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Huq’s Pen: And so it begins

  • Despite not really being a true contender, Houston was among just a handful of teams whose season didn’t really matter.  All they would be judged upon would be their postseason play.  And now we’re here.  After an 82-game rollercoaster, the boys in red will be opening up at home this weekend against the Portland TrailBlazers.  
  • The topic merits more than just a paragraph, but you can divide Houston’s 2013-2014 campaign roughly into four parts.  They opened up awkwardly, struggling to find their identity and struggling to find a suitable power forward – it cost them in the standings.  Upon the insertion of Terrence Jones into the starting lineup, the team took off but at the cost of Omer Asik.  Then, they got Asik back, roles were defined, and for a certain stretch, looked like the best team in the entire league.  After that, nothing mattered but getting to the postseason healthy, leading to the fourth segment when they lost Beverley and Howard and skittered to the finish line.  Despite the joy of last night’s victory, we still don’t really know who this team is.  Are they the defiant group that stomped the Pacers and Heat or are they the lazy cast that got steamrolled by the Bulls and tormented successively by Oklahoma City and the Clippers?
  • You have to really be grateful because the scheme by which things fell into place is the one that outlines Houston’s highest likelihood of a Western Conference Finals berth.  The stage is set for the Rockets to face the two teams in the West against whom they matchup best.  Despite the series sweep of the Spurs, I don’t think necessarily that Houston should be favored to topple their cross-state rivals.  But if given the choice between facing the Spurs, Clippers, and Thunder, the answer there is pretty clear.
  • The interesting thing about the Spurs is that they are the one “good” West team that simply cannot handle Howard and Jones.  As I said last night during the game, it almost feels like it did back in the 90’s when an aging Olajuwon, Drexler, and Elie simply could not keep pace with Payton, Kemp, and the Sonics.

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There are many reasons to believe the Rockets might have a legitimate shot at this year’s title. They went 4-0 against the team with the best record in the league. They have two of the top 10 players. They have one of the best records in the league since January. They are recovering from a host of injuries. They have a favorable draw. They have Patrick Beverley, who will eat you for an afternoon snack.

But what are their chances really? How do they compare to teams like the Spurs, Heat, Thunder, Clippers, or Pacers? To find out, I looked at the projections from three reputable sources: Vegas Futures, Hollinger Playoff Odds, and Sports Club Stats.

According to these sources, only 4-6 teams are more likely to win the 2014 NBA Title than the Rockets. That’s the good news. The bad? The Rockets’ actual chances are about 4-6%.

Put another way, the Rockets are about as likely to win this year’s championship as Dwight Howard is to sink a half-court shot. That’s the plain and painful truth.

The chart below shows the estimated championship probabilities from the three aforementioned sources (Vegas Futures, Hollinger Playoff Odds, and Sports Club Stats). As you can see, the championship is very likely to be awarded to one of five teams: San Antonio, Miami, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers, or Indiana. The Rockets are next in line, but effectively out of reach.

The bottom line: The Rockets have a very good team, good enough to challenge the best teams in the league, but in all likelihood not good enough to win 4 out of 7 games in four straight series.

2014 NBA championship odds

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