On tax neutrality

via NBA Salary Cap FAQ:

65. Are teams really competing on a level playing field? Since the tax rate is different in the different states and Canada, don’t the teams in a more “tax friendly” state have an advantage over the other teams?

Yes they do. For example, since Florida has no state income tax, an offer from Orlando will offer a higher net income than the same offer from Los Angeles. However, the league added a regulation to help neutralize the tax disadvantage of Canadian teams. All teams are permitted to offer a signing bonus of up to 20% (see question number 64). For U.S. residents in Canada, this bonus is taxed at just 15%. Using this bonus, Canadian teams can nearly achieve tax neutrality.

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On the issue of incentives

I was just now reading this in Coon:

Performance incentives are classified as either “likely to be achieved” or “not likely to be achieved,” and are only included in team salary if they are “likely to be achieved.” The league office determines what is likely and what is not. Their guideline is whether the criterion was achieved in the previous season. For example, if a player had seven assists per game the previous season, then an incentive based on seven assists per game would probably be classified as “likely to be achieved,” but an incentive based on eight assists per game would probably be classified as “not likely to be achieved.”

Incentives must be structured so that they provide an incentive for positive achievement by the player or team, and are based upon numerical benchmarks (such as points per game or team wins) or generally recognized league honors (such as MVP or all-NBA first team). The numerical benchmarks must be specific — e.g., a bonus may be based on the player’s free throw percentage exceeds 80%, but may not be based on the player’s free throw percentage improving over his previous season’s percentage.

…which brought to mind the following:

When I ask Morey if he can think of any basketball statistic that can’t benefit a player at the expense of his team, he has to think hard. “Offensive rebounding,” he says, then reverses himself. “But even that can be counterproductive to the team if your job is to get back on defense.” It turns out there is no statistic that a basketball player accumulates that cannot be amassed selfishly. “We think about this deeply whenever we’re talking about contractual incentives,” he says. “We don’t want to incent a guy to do things that hurt the team” — and the amazing thing about basketball is how easy this is to do. “They all maximize what they think they’re being paid for,” he says. He laughs. “It’s a tough environment for a player now because you have a lot of teams starting to think differently. They’ve got to rethink how they’re getting paid.”

The issue of these contractual incentives is not a trivial one as they bear cap implications.  (I did not include the text of that part for the sake of simplicity, but click the link to read more.)  But I wonder – if the Rockets most likely do not base incentives upon conventional measures, and are also tight-lipped about their proprietary metrics – how does the league determine the likelihood of their incentives?

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Random Salary Cap Fact of the Day

This was interesting.  From Coon:

52. Can existing contracts be renegotiated?

A contract for four or more seasons can be renegotiated after the third anniversary of its signing, extension, or renegotiation that increased any seasons salary by more than 8%. Contracts for fewer than four seasons cannot be renegotiated. A contract cannot be renegotiated between March 1 and June 30 of any year. Only teams under the cap can renegotiate a contract, and the salary in the then-current season can be increased only to the extent that the team has room under the cap. Raises in subsequent years are limited to 10.5% of the salary in the first renegotiated season. The renegotiation may not contain a signing bonus. Contracts cannot be renegotiated downward players cant take a “pay cut” in order to create salary cap room for the team or to contain fewer seasons.

Again, a team over the salary cap cannot renegotiate a contract. An interesting case of this was Shawn Kemp with the Sonics. Kemp, who was unhappy with his contract and wanted to renegotiate, could not get a larger contract from the Sonics because they were over the cap. Kemp forced a trade to Cleveland, who was far enough under the cap at the time to give him the large contract he wanted. Kemp’s contract was renegotiated soon after the trade.

Fourteen years later, the Kemp saga is even more mind-blowing in retrospect - Jim McIlvaine was responsible for destroying a mainstay Western Conference powerhouse of the 90′s.  Recall that fresh off a finals defeat to the Bulls, Sonics management, looking for an interior presence to help push them over the top, signed McIlvaine to a 7-year, $33.6million contract, coming off a year in which he averaged a gaudy 2.3ppg and 2.9rpg (to go along with 2bpg).  Kemp, of the feeling that he had been underpaid, naturally was livid, and the rest, as they say, is history.

It’s interesting because I was not aware that it had been Cleveland’s ability to renegotiate Kemp’s contract which had facilitated the deal.  I’ve been of the opinion for some time that actual cap space is overrated (as top tier free agents do not switch teams outright) and that it is flexibility (ie: length of contract, cheap assets) which is critical for smart management.  But this example would seem to present one overlooked template through which cap space can be a boon.  Though of course, the circumstances would be rare (ie: a disgruntled star making less than the max, but eligible for renegotiation), but the possibility does exist.

Sidenote on Kemp: He’s the one guy from the 90′s, moreso than anyone else, whom, due to the suddenness of his tragic downfall, we view through a revisionist lens and romanticize as greater than what was reality.  To be clear, Shawn Kemp was incredible – elite defensively and the quintessential athletic specimen of his era.  But he’s spoken of today, in reminiscence, as the premiere forward of that age, and in truth, he was far from it.  Just check the numbers, hovering around 18ppg on a fast-paced Sonics bunch.

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Notes on the Finals

Update: 11:41 AM – more randomness of little relevance to anything
  • By far the most maddening aspect of the Lebron James – Kobe Bryant debate (which has inexplicably reared its head once more) is that the bearing of relevant proofs such as PER is lost on proponents of the latter.  Mere recognition would be a start.  It is true that of the two, Bryant is invariably the more skilled, and thus by extension, better equipped to close games.  But it has been a source of great amusement that this fact, put on full display in last week’s series clincher vs. Phoenix, has been pushed as validation of the flawed claim of Bryant’s overall superiority.  Kobe’s pathological impulse for greatness is perhaps unrivaled in this sport, and as mentioned, the rare skillset allows for dominance in close games.  But the Laker guard can’t do the heavy lifting done by James at a historic level over the course of games and entire seasons.  Forget about Pau Gasol; has James ever paired with anyone even on par with former Laker Eddie Jones?
  • Remember that sad ten year period when it was oft-quipped that the NBA Finals was actually the Western Conference Finals?  Thank God for Celtics-Lakers.  I see the 2008 champs emerging victoriously from what will undoubtedly be a bloodbath.  With as much that is being said about the difference in this year’s Lakers being Artest and the physicality he brings, and Ron always being one to relish and hope to please, look for some antics or forced machismo from the former-Rocket.
  • Over-under on the probability of a Vujacic-Rondo altercation?  Who doesn’t see this all too predictable plot unfolding at some point: the Celtics guard torches Lakers guard Derek Fisher from the opening tip, summoning Vujacic from the bench; Sasha, somehow being of the belief in the superiority in his defensive powers gets a little too close and things get testy.
  • While we’re at it, shall we take bets on likely altercation pairings?  Surely Artest-Perkins at some point.  Gasol and Garnett in a redux?  Sasha Vujacic and reality?
  • I know it has come to the annoyance of most, but I’m really digging the “Kobe Bryant must now do what every Laker great must do…*music plays*…beat the Celtics” plotline that all the major networks are pushing.  I suppose I should be embarrassed by such admission, but I’m into that sort of thing.
  • So the fight theme seems to have gained early traction, which I think speaks to the sad state of affairs of the Houston Rockets news cycle (google news “Houston Rockets” and I think some trash piece I excreted out on Yao-Artest 2 weeks ago still makes Page 1)…anyhow…Artest-Garnett: please God.  If there is a God, this will happen.  But I don’t really see how it could – neither would instigate, surely Garnett wouldn’t, seeing as how Artest is neither European nor under 6’3.  But the more overlooked part at play here, which I think is misunderstood, is that Ron won’t ever maliciously start a fight.  He’s not Kenyon Martin – people don’t quite understand that.  For Ron, it’s more of a tribal, hierarchical/territorial dynamic with layers pertaining to manhood and patriarchy that would be more commonly found in the Middle East (I’m allowed to say that).  And it took me watching him up close last year to understand that.  Because honestly, after the “brawl”, like you, I just dismissed the whole incident as thuggery and scoffed at the notion by some wiser sociology types that the incident truly did stem from issues pertaining to “respect”.  But that really is the case.  So he won’t ever just start it just for the sake of it.
  • Artest – Pierce: this will never happen, which will surely come as odd as it seems so obvious.  But as I mused in the comments, the two have a very strange “mutual respect” dynamic at play as evidenced by their passive-aggressive scuffle in one of the earlier meetings this year.  It’s territorial.  They won’t do it.
  • And of course I’m embarrassed that I’ve devoted today’s space to possible Finals altercations, but this informal voice is quite the outlet.

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Assessing Ariza – Part 3

In the seven games between March 13th and March 24th, spanning from the point Trevor Ariza returned from injury and joined Kevin Martin in the Houston Rockets’ starting lineup, up until the day Martin went down with an injury, Ariza shot 47% from the field and 34% from deep in averaging 13.1ppg.  Overall on the year, Ariza shot just 39% and 33% on 3’s in averaging 14.9ppg.

While primitive and unadjusted, these measures, in combination with observation, allow us to confidently posit that the presence of Kevin Martin significantly impacts the production of Trevor Ariza.

In addition, because Ariza’s 3pt% remained roughly the same, we can attribute the improved production to, rather than open looks on the perimeter, a shift in the manner in which he took his 2’s.

Read More »

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