Red94 | essays and musings on the nba and houston rockets

Earlier this month, SB Nation launched regional projects in 20 different markets, with Houston being one of them.  It’s an innovative approach to local coverage, aggregating onto one page editorialized content for each team from the market.  SB Nation Houston is managed by thedreamshake’s Tom Martin.

On behalf of SB Nation Houston, 1560 The Game’s David Nuño sat down with Indiana Pacer’s guard T.J Ford to discuss a variety of topics, including Toronto Raptors forward Chris Bosh:

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• The world as we knew it just fourteen hours ago will never again be the same.  Ron Artest (of ‘Malice at the Palace’ infamy) won the LA Lakers the NBA championship.  It still has not completely sunk in.  First, let me preemptively preface by saying that no, this outcome does not bear Rockets regret.  Of this, I can convey complete assurance.  But this was a script that could never have been written, almost as bizarre as the forward himself.  Artest carried the Lakers through long stretches, imposing his will upon the game, and sealing it with an open ‘3’.  A shout-out to his shrink and one of the most raw post-game pressers in recent memory capped off the most surreal viewing experience in playoff history.  I don’t even really remember what I saw, and only recall that when he hit the ‘3’ to win it, I could only shake my head in disbelief over the absurdity – of course – it had to end this way.  How else could we be forced to disavow every shred of normality and sense in the world but with an Artest Game 7 epic?  In an evolving game where 7 foot men handle like guards and 6 footers rebound amongst the trees, this was just how it had to be.  We’ve officially cemented the post-modern stage.  We know nothing, there is no absolute truth and the mercurial Ron Artest has won the title for the LA Lakers.  This was the only way. Read More »

I will go ahead and pick Lakers by 9.  I had picked the Celtics to win this series, but I can’t see them beating LA without Perkins as he is such an integral part of what they want to do defensively.  I don’t trust Rasheed to stop hoisting 3′s and give them anything positive, and I don’t know that we can expect Big Baby to deliver in a Game 7 on the road.

My prediction: I think the Lakers will remain comfortably in control until early in the 4th when a ferocious Celtics push will cut the lead down to 3.  Someone random like Jordan Farmar or Vujacic will hit back to back 3′s and the Lakers will pull away and hang on for the win.

I’m most curious to see how Kobe Bryant comes out to start the game.  It’s the biggest game of his career to this point and he is well aware that with this win, he can enter the discussion with Magic Johnson as the greatest Laker of all-time (please spare me the Jordan stuff; no).  Does he come out looking to get Pau involved or is he more forceful as he was in his younger years?

Update: To quantify my claim on Perkins, here’s Neil Paine of basketballreference:

We can really illustrate Perkins’ hidden importance by looking at the Plus/Minus numbers. When Perkins was on the court for Boston this season, the Celtics outscored their opponents by 7.2 points per 100 possessions; when he wasn’t playing, that number was only +0.2, a difference of -7 pts/100 poss. The same story has been true since Perkins became a regular starter in 2006-07: putting together a rudimentary game-by-game “with or without you” regression (similar to what I did in this post) between team HCA-adjusted PPG differential and whether or not a player played 17 minutes in the game (the MPG that usually indicates a “contributor”), Perkins shows up as adding +2.18 PPG to Boston’s differential when he’s a contributor vs. when he plays limited minutes or less.

Meanwhile, Perkins’ Game 7 replacements, Rasheed Wallace and Glen Davis, don’t fare nearly as well by the WOWOY metrics. Despite Davis’ heroics in Game 4, he and Wallace have been Boston’s two worst players by net on/off rating during the playoffs. Wallace has been particularly toxic for the Celtics all season — the team played 5 pts/100 poss. worse when he was on the floor, as evidenced by his recurring appearance in the Celts’ worst lineup combinations. Davis & Wallace look better by the 4-year WOWOY regression (Davis is +1.36, Wallace is +0.47), but neither has the ability to positively impact the game the way Perkins does. Without his presence, and playing on the road (home teams win Game 7 80% of the time), the Celtics appear to be in dire straits tonight.

• Kobe Bryant scored 38 on 13-27 from the floor, dazzling the crowd at various moments.  The Laker guard went 7-8 in the first eight minutes of the third, dropping in 19, but scored just five points on 0-3 shooting in the last eight of the fourth.  Had this been Lebron James, the discussion this morning would undoubtedly have been about a lack of “clutchness” and various other character flaws.  Can we just give the Celtics their credit where its due?
• Bryant hit a series of impossible shots throughout the third, but in this one, it was the Celtics’ ‘d’ that stood out.  Every time the Laker guard drove to the hoop, he was swarmed by 3 white jerseys.  Nothing came easy.  Defensive exhibitions like this one make it easy to understand why so many are excited at the prospect of Lebron James joining Tom Thibodeau in Chicago.  The latter is not a household name among casual fans but is respected as arguably the preeminent defensive genius in basketball today.  James, apart from his known offensive prowess, is recognized by most smart people I trust as one of the two or three best defensive wings in basketball.  With a mobile big like Joakim Noah manning the middle, the league could be in trouble if James bolts to the Bulls, and I for one am really hoping it happens.
• Interesting to note that the Lakers actually fared well on the boards, grabbing 16 on the offensive glass to the Celtics’ 7.  From watching the game, I would have assumed the complete opposite.
• Ron Artest went 2-9 from the floor and had great trouble containing Paul Pierce on the pick&roll.  I had said that the Lakers would regret the essential ‘swap’ of Ariza for Artest, not because Artest would disturb chemistry (Ron has a very clear sense of hierarchy), but because he just wasn’t very good at this point.  He surprised me this year with his play, dropping weight and regaining the defensive form for which he gained notoriety.  But I wonder now if the Lakers regret the swap?  For the most part in these playoffs, offensively, Artest has been atrocious (39%-28%3’s) but that was to be expected.  At the other end, he was perhaps the star of the Thunder series, making life miserable for OKC forward Kevin Durant, and had kept Pierce a non-factor in the Finals until last night.  If the Lakers fail to win the title, with multiple years remaining on his contract, I wonder how the transaction will be viewed.  With Pierce and the Celtics seeming to have figured out Artest’s mobility issues with navigating picks, Los Angeles could probably at least use some of the deadeye spot-up shooting that Trevor Ariza provided in last year’s run.  I for one could not be happier with the swap.