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On the outside looking in

via NBA.com

After last night’s loss, the Rockets moved back down to 9th in the Western Conference, a familiar spot in recent weeks.  There’s no point in trying to diagnose the team’s problems.  It’s simple: they’re playing without their starting backcourt.  One could argue that Dragic and Lee have been better than Lowry and Martin, but the fact still remains that losing two critical pieces takes a huge chunk out from a team’s overall depth.  In fact, I think it’s remarkable that they’re even still in this thing.

2. If you joined me on Twitter during last night’s game, I dove into NBA.com’s new media stats tool which has basically every statistic conceivable.  One interesting thing I found is that opponents shoot the same percentage (~45%) against the Dragic-Lee backcourt as they did against the Lowry-Martin backcourt.  I would not have expected this.  I’ll go back in when I have more time and refine some parameters; the sheer glut of info in there even got a bit overwhelming last night.

3. Not to go off on a tangent, but if I have access to this, one can only imagine what kind of stuff the Rockets have at their fingertips.  My guess would be that rather than just running different sequences based on the same stuff (ie: providing more statistics), they’re actually physically identifying and charting additional things.  So whereas the league is charting things like rebounds, shots, assists etc. and then manipulating that data, the Rockets are probably charting other things in the game like ‘hockey assists’, ‘deflections.’

4. When you watch this team, you notice that they struggle when the ball/players stop moving.  There’s only one guy on the team (Scola) who can score one-on-one.  Everything else has to come off high screen and roll or misdirection.  When they’re tired, they struggle, because it’s harder to keep moving.  With Budinger struggling, I’d propose that they give Marcus Morris a real shot.  He’s the only other guy on the roster after Luis who can get his own shot.  And his defense has seemed acceptable.  During those stretches when the offense stagnates, I think McHale needs to throw in Morris and let him work in the post.  I really don’t think it can hurt.

5. I predicted that the team would make the playoffs after the Dalembert signing and maintained that position after the deadline.  I still maintain that position, but with the news on Lowry (he’s likely to miss the remainder of the season), there’s a strong chance now that they fall out altogether.  What would that mean?  If they make the playoffs, they’d have probably the #15 (via New York), possibly the #21ish (via Dallas), and some good experience for their probably core of Parsons, Dragic, and Lee.  On the other hand, if they miss out, they’d have the #15, the #14, and then the same chances on the Dallas pick.  Which is preferable?

-I prefer to make the playoffs just because I think this franchise could really use some ‘good feelings’ and national spotlight.

-Whatever combination of picks they end up with, I’m almost positive they’ll keep only one, either moving up or moving off in a separate package.  With Motiejunas already coming over, the team won’t want to pay three high priced rookies, especially when they already have youth on the roster.

-Re: experience – the problem there is that this isn’t akin to another young team like the Wolves getting playoff experience for their core.  With Parsons, Lee, and Dragic, or anyone else on this roster, we’re not even sure how long they’ll be around.  No one on this team right now is untouchable.

-How high could you climb with a package of Lowry and the #15?  How about Lowry, the #15, and the #14?  That’s a young fringe-All Star point guard with two lottoish picks.  That should get you squarely into the top 5, I’d think.  Could you break the top 3?  I’m leaning towards yes.  If the Knicks somehow drop out, netting you the 9th or 10th, I’m thinking it’s almost a lock that you could move up into the top tier picks by using Lowry.  #15 and Lowry wouldn’t be enough.  But #14, #15, and Lowry almost has to get you something special, right?  Maybe it would just be best for this franchise to miss the playoffs…






About the author: Rahat Huq is a lawyer in real life and the founder and editor-in-chief of www.Red94.net.

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