The Morey Fallacy

I would have been much better served writing this post back in July when the topic was fresh and relevant.  But I didn’t, so now will have to do.

In the days following the apex of Houston’s disastrous summer, when the team lost Chandler Parsons after striking out on every major free agent, the critics came out in waves, celebrating Morey’s plight.  Some of the assertions made were true.  Many were regurgitated, the same things that had been said before the Rockets’ coup of James Harden and Dwight Howard in subsequent summers.  One critique of Morey, in particular, has consistently been levied throughout his tenure.

It’s said often that the Rockets’ general manager does not value, or does not understand the importance of chemistry.  This charge usually is made in hand with the one that claims he is far too active on the trade front.  Not only is this premise inaccurate, it is based on an unwarranted assumption.

The thinking goes like this: because Morey makes so many deals, he must necessarily be overlooking the importance of team chemistry.  If Morey gave proper worth to chemistry, and just let his teams grow, he’d see that they’d improve on their own.  ”How can these teams ever grow if he just keeps making moves every year?”

What the critics are overlooking is the ceiling analysis.  I’ve used this analogy before and its more apt than ever: if I and four of my readers formed a team, just by staying together, we’d inherently improve over time.  We’d learn each other’s tendencies, we’d gain cohesion.  We’d ‘build chemistry,’ as they say it.  But that doesn’t mean this Red94 team would ever win an NBA title.  Why?  Because the ceiling is limited.  The five of us don’t have the size and talent to compete in the NBA.  What’s the lesson here?  Just because something can or will improve doesn’t mean it’s a goal worth pursuing.  You have to look at the probability of achieving the end result.

For the Rockets, Morey keeps blowing up his roster because he doesn’t see championship upside in any of them.  That Kyle Lowry-Chuck Hayes-Luis Scola team would probably be better this year than it was back then, had we kept it together.  But what would be the point?  They weren’t winning the title.

Now the question of whether a team of Howard/Harden/Parsons could ever win the title is subject for debate.  But if Morey has made that determination that that team can’t ever win it all, then it only logically follows that he blow it up.  If he keeps it together, he’s only wasting time.  Several of you will possibly misconstrue this point, so I’ll reiterate: the Howard/Harden/Parsons trio very well might be good enough to win a title.  But in Morey’s opinion, it is not.  Because he chose to blow that team up doesn’t mean he doesn’t value chemistry.  He blew it up because he made the determination that team’s ceiling wasn’t high enough.

The goal for Houston was to put together a team that had a championship ceiling.  Had they gotten Bosh, they would’ve stopped tinkering.  But Houston’s current course is not about an improper appraisal of chemistry.  To say otherwise is incorrect and a misunderstanding of Morey’s thinking.

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Total comments: 49
  • rockets best fan says 3 weeks ago

    @rocketrick

    I agree JVG is unlikely to move midseason and looks like we are stuck with Charlie Brown for the rest of the year unless the Rockets have a sudden change of heart, but if they made such a move I would be behind it 100%

  • rocketrick says 3 weeks ago

    @Willk
    we flash the MONEY :lol:


    Since the Rockets have lost 0 games to date in the new season, I would rate Coach McHales job security as pretty solid for the time being. May need to revisit if the Rockets start out too slowly this season although it is a lot to expect the Rockets to improve on last season's start with all the lineup and rotation changes in my opinion.

    This is McHales final year of his contract, so unless the bottom falls out, I expect McHale will be given the benefit of the doubt through the end of this season.

    Very doubtful Van Gundy would sign on mid-season, his TV contract, I bet, probably forbids it anyway.
  • rockets best fan says 3 weeks ago

    @txtdo1411

    we're in agreement on what to offer, but I disagree that Phoenix won't accept that. even though Papa is an unknown to us he was big overseas. so he does have value here. how much I don't know. the Pelicans pick is a jewel. even though Phoenix has some other first rounder's whenever you get a chance at one in the lottery you have to take a serious look at it. if they can't settle with Bledsoe it's unlikely they find something better than our offer on the market. however if I needed to sweeten the pot it would be someone like Covington. I would not trade either T-Jones or D-Mo in the deal. it leaves us too short on bigs

  • txtdo1411 says 3 weeks ago

    @txtdo1411

    correct I would rather have Dragic, however I would take either one Phoenix is willing to part with.Bledsoe will at least give us another facilitator removing some of the burden from Harden. I have looked at Phoenix's stats with and without Bledsoe in the lineup and agree with you he was more secondary option. however we don't need him to be the primary option here. that's Harden. we don't even need him to be the secondary option. that D-12. I think Bledsoe is fully capable of handling third option on a team and that's all we need. I agree we shouldn't pay Bledsoe MAX, but even if we did it will not cap us out. do you realize that before we sign Papa we had to use the Lin trade exemption to stay above the cap. if we send Phoenix Papa some expiring contracts and the Pelicans pick we will still only be about 6 mil above the cap. if the cap rises in two years by 15 mil as is being proposed by some pundits with a little house cleaning we could have near Max money to spend again. so the idea it will trap us in overblown. Yes it will hinder us some, but we still have resources to upgrade the team. Bledsoe will improve our overall defense, especially if we still have Beverly coming off the bench, but he will also create enough of a diversion offensively to loosen the defense allowing Harden and D-12more room to operatewhile limiting double teams on either.

    So what would you be comfortable giving up in a S&T to Phoenix for him? I wouldn't be comfortable giving more than a 1st, Kostas, ad expiring contracts. There is no way Phoenix accepts that. What more would you offer to sweeten the pot? I think what it is going to cost us (have heard D-MO and even Jones to be rumored) is too much considering the risks associated with Bledsoe.

  • rockets best fan says 3 weeks ago

    @txtdo1411

    correct I would rather have Dragic, however I would take either one Phoenix is willing to part with.Bledsoe will at least give us another facilitator removing some of the burden from Harden. I have looked at Phoenix's stats with and without Bledsoe in the lineup and agree with you he was more secondary option. however we don't need him to be the primary option here. that's Harden. we don't even need him to be the secondary option. that D-12. I think Bledsoe is fully capable of handling third option on a team and that's all we need. I agree we shouldn't pay Bledsoe MAX, but even if we did it will not cap us out. do you realize that before we sign Papa we had to use the Lin trade exemption to stay above the cap. if we send Phoenix Papa some expiring contracts and the Pelicans pick we will still only be about 6 mil above the cap. if the cap rises in two years by 15 mil as is being proposed by some pundits with a little house cleaning we could have near Max money to spend again. so the idea it will trap us in overblown. Yes it will hinder us some, but we still have resources to upgrade the team. Bledsoe will improve our overall defense, especially if we still have Beverly coming off the bench, but he will also create enough of a diversion offensively to loosen the defense allowing Harden and D-12more room to operatewhile limiting double teams on either.

  • txtdo1411 says 3 weeks ago

    @RBF I believe it would be a mistake for Morey to do a S&T with Phoenix and give away anything more than Pellies pick, Kostas, and non guaranteed contracts. If that happens then we are paying him max money for 4 years, and are pretty much locked in. If he stays healthy, which has been discussed very much on here, I still am not sold on him being a piece that puts us over the top.

    I remember you and I had a discussion a couple weeks ago about needing a facilitator to help out Harden. I said I wanted a combo guard type that can help but not be the primary facilitator. You wanted a PG that was an elite facilitator to take the ball out of Harden's hands more. I'm assuming that you're stance has changed because Bledsoe is far from an elite facilitator and more of a combo guard. Per basketballreference.com Bledsoe's career per 36 numbers are 5.6 assists, and 3.6 turnovers. Maybe he could develop into an elite passer, but going into his 5th season it does not seem likely. Even last season in his best year yet, he averaged 5.5 assists to 3.3 turnovers.

    Read this article SI did on Bledsoe http://www.si.com/nba/2014/08/19/eric-bledsoe-phoenix-suns-free-agency

    When he and Dragic were both on the court the Suns scored 108.4 points per 100 possesions. When Bledsoe sat, their offensive efficiency stayed fairly consistent at 108 points. When Dragic sat, and Bledsoe was in the game their offensive efficiency dipped to 100.4 points. That is a huge drop-off. To me it shows that Dragic is the one making plays, and elevating every other players game... not Bledsoe. He is a beneficiary of Dragic's play. I'm not saying Bledsoe wasn't good for them last year, but I believe Dragic is the heart of that offense, and Bledsoe is more of a secondary option.

    All this being said, I do think Bledsoe is a solid player. He is a hell of a defender, and has some things to like about his offensive game. He is just simply not worth the money he is wanting. There are too many question marks, not only about his durability, but about his game in general. His sample size of "ELITE"... not elite even, but "GOOD" play is extremely small. I don't think Morey wants any part of giving up our starting PF, and our bench depth for a player of Bledsoe's quality. I know he has potential, but as deep as the PG position is now a days it makes zero sense to overpay for one that has yet to prove much in the NBA. Now Dragic on the other hand... :P

  • rockets best fan says 3 weeks ago

    @Willk

    we flash the MONEY :lol:

  • Willk says 3 weeks ago

    @rocketrick
    JEFF VAN GUNDY. the man is a great coach.

    And when he says he does not want to coach then what?
  • rockets best fan says 3 weeks ago

    @rocketrick

    JEFF VAN GUNDY. the man is a great coach.

  • rocketrick says 3 weeks ago

    That was sarcasm. Could you calm down? I know you love mchale, but come on. This is a forum where everybody has their own opinion. No need to CONTINUE to denigrate everybody who doesn't agree with you.


    My comment was full of much more sarcasm that you clearly did not understand. I get it, no problem.
  • timetodienow1234567 says 3 weeks ago That was sarcasm. Could you calm down? I know you love mchale, but come on. This is a forum where everybody has their own opinion. No need to CONTINUE to denigrate everybody who doesn't agree with you.
  • rocketrick says 3 weeks ago That's just utterly pathetic. So should the Rockets move to the WNBA, is that what you are implying?
  • timetodienow1234567 says 3 weeks ago Becky hammon
  • rocketrick says 3 weeks ago Who should the Rockets hire as the Head Coach RIGHT NOW or MIDSEASON or after the conclusion of the In Your Apparent Opinion, the disaster to come the 2014-15 Season?

    College coach, right?
  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    to expand on that last post a little more..............I would say we had enough to win if we had a coach who was capable of using the pieces we have acquired properly. however we don't. McHale needs a team that can withstand his bumbling ways. his lack of knowhow must be compensated for with talent. we need a team that is Charlie Brown proof. I have absolutely NO confidence in his abilities. since the Rockets have not yet fired him and run him out of town or even brought in someone to hold his hand, talent upgrade is the only realisticway we can expect different results from last year. I don't agree that the maturation process of our young players is enough. other teams in our conference are maturing at varied degreestoo. we have a couple of obvious places wecan use additional help. shoring up those areas can make a huge difference. adding talent to those positions ( PG and PF) may take us to next level........your trying to tell me that's a bad thing?

  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    @RollingWave

    I'm assuming you are referring to the Rockets and standing pat on the present roster? if that be the case my answer would be.......I love the fact that Morey has kept us flexible and prime to strike deals to improve the team. however flexibility can't score points or grab rebounds. at some point we are going to have to cash in at least some of that flexibility to improve this team. the only question is on which player. I like a bunch of the youngsters we have acquired. I also agree they should play, but acquiring additional talent can only enhance the possibility of us reaching the ultimate goal. I don't see how adding more good players to the mix is a step backward. Yes we are a 54 win team, howeverwe plays in the most competitive conference among teams very close to us in overall talent. we must always be looking for opportunity toget a stepahead of these teams. I like the present team, but are they good enough to beat the Clippers, OKC or even Portland in a seven game series? NO they aren't. we need improvement. at some point we must go all in if a championship is what we are truly chasing.

  • RollingWave says 4 weeks ago

    it's a 54 win team with a bunch of injury and generally very young, what exactly would be your standard of being good enough that it would be worth potentially wasting what you already have on hand? The freaking Miami Heat won 58 games in year 1 with the big 3s combined missed the same amount of games as Dwight Howard did last year.

    I don't disagree with the argument when the team's best player was Dragic or Lowry, I do question that if this wasn't good enough of a team to gamble on then there may never be a better one again in Morey's tenure.

  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    @JG

    I didn't say you were speaking from an uninformed position. I just told Buckko to do the research for himself instead of taking in bad information on the subject. at the time I looked it up it wasn't for Bledsoe, it was for Beverly. I'm not trying to win the argument because ultimately the Rockets will do what they want to do regardless of what we think so there is nothing to be gained. I'm simply stating my case for Bledsoe's acquisition. Iknow we differ on opinions regarding the subject and I'm not at all upset at yours. however I think the injury argument is overblown and is the poster child of those who are against his acquisition. even the worse case scenario has Bledsoe playing for a number of years so treating his situation like he is an accident looking for a place to happen is unwarranted. as I told Buckko if you guys dislike him that's a fair argument, but attempting to somehow label him as defective is taking his injury out of context

  • thejohnnygold says 4 weeks ago

    @Buckko

    define chronic...........by chronic you mean any player who has had 2 or more surgeries? Bledsoe has had 2.....both on the same knee and both on the same spot which probably means they didn't get it right the first time and hadtocorrect the first procedure by just removing the meniscus all together. I'd hardly call that chronic. to really understand his injury you have to research it. this type of injury is not as career altering as some who have not research the effect would have you believe. do the research for yourself and answer the question in your own mind. don't accept the opinion of those who haven't done the research. type meniscus into your browser and see what happens. I'm not trying to minimize Bledsoe's injury, just view it in the proper context. this kid is 24 years old with a lot of basketball yearsleft. if you don't like him for other reasons say that, but holding his injury history up as the main negative is judging him unfairly base on misinformation.

    I have done the research myself as well and posted it in a different thread a while back with links to articles. Yes, there are those who recover....and those who don't. Bledsoe, based on what I've read, is headed towards the shorter career path most likely. It's not definite--I'm not Nostradamus--but the risk is high with him. RBF, You know I don't need to misinform nor would I choose to do so--that's not what we're about. It's not about winning internet arguments around here. In my estimation, he is high risk. It's an opinion, based on an educated guess after having done my own research. You shouldn't presume that just because I don't agree with you I haven't informed myself on the matter. :P :)

    I will also say I do not like someone who stubbornly demands a max contract he has in no way earned. His injury history is a big reason, but there are others which I have gone into before.

  • Buckko says 4 weeks ago

    Exactly, he is young and yet to play an 82 game season healthy even with backup minutes.

  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    @Buckko

    define chronic...........by chronic you mean any player who has had 2 or more surgeries? Bledsoe has had 2.....both on the same knee and both on the same spot which probably means they didn't get it right the first time and hadtocorrect the first procedure by just removing the meniscus all together. I'd hardly call that chronic. to really understand his injury you have to research it. this type of injury is not as career altering as some who have not research the effect would have you believe. do the research for yourself and answer the question in your own mind. don't accept the opinion of those who haven't done the research. type meniscus into your browser and see what happens. I'm not trying to minimize Bledsoe's injury, just view it in the proper context. this kid is 24 years old with a lot of basketball yearsleft. if you don't like him for other reasons say that, but holding his injury history up as the main negative is judging him unfairly base on misinformation.

  • thejohnnygold says 4 weeks ago

    @RBF--We are at an impasse. You make a lot of good points. Ultimately, I'm against making the move. Rumors are circulating that the Rockets are still interested so we'll see what happens.

  • Buckko says 4 weeks ago

    RBF, we agree on most things, but you simply cannot build around players with chronic knee injuries. Statistically, harden is already a better facilitator than bledsoe, so I don't know where you get this idea of taking the ball out of harden's hands and putting it into a worst player's hands will make us better. Especially after harden has been showing his new nifty passes at team USA. Dragic I could understand, bledsoe makes zero sense.

  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    @rocketrick

    "the Rockets are at their best with the ball in Harden's hands" I disagree. we need a better primary facilitator. that's part of our problem

  • rockets best fan says 4 weeks ago

    @JG

    first off I didn't say Bledsoe is worth a max. I said I would go as high as 14 milper. second Phoenix's desire to sign Bledsoe to a lower contract are tied to more than just their evaluation of he talent. they are looking at the big picture when they must sign Dragic next year. third they value him highly or they wouldn't have 48 mil dollars on the table in the first place.

    I understand you don't believe this is a good move for the Rockets. true we could have him next summer IF he is still available which is HIGHLY unlikely. however his cost to us will be lower than the going rate for several factors.

    1. the PG market is flooded right now. I have discussed this in another thread. so I'm sure your familiar with my thinking in this area

    2. Phoenix is caught between a rock and a hard place with Bledsoe.......an impasse. Bledsoe signing his qualifying sheet favors neither party

    3. Phoenix has begun shopping Bledsoe, but because of the flooded market for PG's haven't found any offers remotely in the ball park for what they think Bledsoe is worth. the fact that they haven't moved him for chicken feed indicates they know what it is they have in Bledsoe, but as the suitors disappear that Pelican pick we own will start to look like gold to Phoenix

    4. it's likely we can get Bledsoe for under 14 mil per by just increasing our offer over Phoenix's by a few mil over the life of the contract. we don't have to sign him for four years.......we can sign him for three with the last year a team option to protect us some against his injury history. just because the cap will increase in a couple of years doesn't mean NBA teams will start using money likeit's monopoly money. most teams are run much more efficiently now. Yes there are still fools, but they are the exception now and not the rule. Phoenix is in a much different position with Bledsoe than Houston was with Asik last year after his trade market seem to dry up. Houston had time as an advantage......Phoenix doesn't. they must settle this problem before the season starts. losing Bledsoe for nothing ain't gonna happen. even if they must take less than they had hoped to recover it would still beat getting nothing. it only seems that Phoenix has the upper hand..........in reality they are scrambling to salvage the situation. that's why they haven't found a team willing to meet their demand. other GM's smell blood in the water.

    5. Bledsoe's injury history. I think we can use this to our advantage. while I believe this reward is worth the risk on Bledsoe, we can use his history with injury as a bargaining tool.

    as for Bledsoe's overall talent.........this kid is on the cusp of stardom.........Yes I believe he is that good. he does have an injury history on one knee with the same operation. the meniscus. the first time he had the meniscus repaired when it tore. the second time he had it removed. this is the same operation D-Wade had many years ago, yet look how long he played at a top level before it started to catch up with him. this is the same injury Beverly suffered last year to a lesser degree. Yes it's worth consideration, but based on Bledsoe's response to the surgery in his play for Phoenix last year I would say the gamble is not as troublesome as some would seem to make it. I have done a little research on the meniscus and have looked at the prognosis of athletes with this condition. many play for years with little or no effectbefore the degeneration catches up with them in later years. that's why I think it's a good gamble. if his injury history had to do with areas thatcontrol the stability of the knee I would be worried, but the meniscus is more a cushion for the knee. yes it will shorten his career, but 6 -7 years down the line. as for a 3-4 year contract with us that is probably a safe bet.

  • rocketrick says 4 weeks ago

    they could make a sign and trade deal. they've amassed a pretty sizable figure in nonguaranteed contracts, in addition to Papa's essentially expiring $4.8million deal.


    I'm sorry, I didn't see your response earlier.

    Anyway, so you think the Rockets should simply push all the chips over to the Eric Bledsoe side of the table?

    I can see why, in the short-term, you like the deal.

    However, it absolutely makes 0 sense for the Rockets, D12, Harden and our hopes for Rings in my opinion.

    Why?

    Bledsoe simply cannot stay healthy for the entire season.

    Secondly, Bledsoe CLEARLY is not worth (an average) of $16 million per year the next 4 seasons AFTER this season.

    Is Bledsoe a spot up shooter or does he perform better with the ball in his hands (ala Harden)? If the latter, who do you trust in Game 6 of the Playoffs, Bledsoe or Harden?

    Third and final, PG's continue to come into the NBA each and every season.

    When was the last time a top notch SG like Harden joined the NBA?

    Supply and Demand, but simple economics is always troubling as I know from experience.

    I asked a simple question 30+ year ago-------------if the World's population continues to grow, will we eventually run out of resources? Shockingly back then, most people I knew said no.
  • rocketrick says 4 weeks ago Not to mention the obvious which is that the Rockets are at their best with the ball in Harden's hands.

    I get it, you absolutely despise Harden so anybody but Harden at this point makes you giddy like a ............

    You get the point, I hope. If not, I am clearly on the wrong Rockets site.
  • rocketrick says 4 weeks ago

    they could make a sign and trade deal. they've amassed a pretty sizable figure in nonguaranteed contracts, in addition to Papa's essentially expiring $4.8million deal.


    OK Cool, so we trade Beverley, TJones, Motiejunas and who knows the other couple of players simply for Bledsoe who keeps coming up hobbled/

    Just exactly how many seasons has Bledsoe played the full 82?

    Simple Answer is.............

    0
  • thejohnnygold says 4 weeks ago

    @JG

    you make it seem as if I'm throwing Beverly under the bus. I like Beverly. I don't need to be convinced he is a good player. I agree with that. if we get Bledsoe it doesn't mean Beverly will stop playing. this team needs an upgrade at PG. that's not trashing Beverly, that's saying he's NOT ENOUGH without other upgrades

    Didn't mean to imply that. I think you are over-valuing Bledsoe in relation to Beverley is all. I can't reconcile your belief that Bledsoe is a big upgrade for us and worth a max contract, but can be had for peanuts in a trade. I have heard and understand your reasoning for it--but I simply do not agree and think that you can't have it both ways.

    If he is as good as you say, then it will cost more to get him. If not, then trading for him and signing him to a max contract is a bad move. It doesn't add up. That's why I posted that quote from the GM earlier--it speaks to this issue. Phoenix has him valued highly and teams are reluctant to deal the necessary assets to get him given the question marks surrounding his future. He can be had straight up after this season. It's just not a good move.

    Plus, doesn't anyone question why Phoenix isn't stepping up to the plate to sign this guy outright if he is such a stud? Locking him up to a 5 year, $16M deal heading into the larger cap era seems like a no-brainer for a stud PG. The fact that they won't do it is a big red flag.

    Regarding our cap situation--I think we're fine. Plenty of room and flexibility to make just about any move we want. The only super-max level player for 2015 (not counting LeBron/Love) is Aldridge and I think he is very likely to stay in Portland. Everyone else we might want is easily within our grasp.

  • Red94 says 4 weeks ago

    The Rockets don't even have CAP room were they willing to pay Bledsoe. The door has been slammed, actually was slammed a couple of months ago in my opinion...........

    they could make a sign and trade deal. they've amassed a pretty sizable figure in nonguaranteed contracts, in addition to Papa's essentially expiring $4.8million deal.

  • rocketrick says 4 weeks ago The Rockets don't even have CAP room were they willing to pay Bledsoe. The door has been slammed, actually was slammed a couple of months ago in my opinion...........
  • rocketrick says 4 weeks ago

    I'm torn on Bledsoe. On the one hand, I'm not too thrilled at the prospect of paying someone over $12million to play a position where we already have a very capable player in Beverley. Not just capable, but someone who is clearly impacting the outcome of games, given his advanced stats. But despite the advanced metrics, you can't shake the feeling that he's giving you nothing as an offensive threat late in games.


    YAWN...........OK, so Bledsoe won't re-sign with any team he's traded to unless they agree to 4 years, $64 million which averages out to $16 million per season.

    So........ if you're not "thrilled at the prospect of paying someone over $12 million to play a position where we already have a very capable player in Beverley"...........how do you feel about playing same player 25% over that "hopeful" figure?

    Oh well, like I said, chasing Bledsoe this summer was useless............turns out to be ABSOLUTELY useless.

    NEXT--------------
  • rockets best fan says 1 month ago

    @JG

    you make it seem as if I'm throwing Beverly under the bus. I like Beverly. I don't need to be convinced he is a good player. I agree with that. if we get Bledsoe it doesn't mean Beverly will stop playing. this team needs an upgrade at PG. that's not trashing Beverly, that's saying he's NOT ENOUGH without other upgrades

  • thejohnnygold says 1 month ago

    Here is an article citing an anonymous league GM regarding the Bledsoe/Greg Monroe free agency. LINK

    Here is the meat of the article:

    But, as one league general manager told Sporting News this week, their potential free agency next summer has cooled the market for each. “I think any one of us would be wary of getting involved in a trade for either player,” the GM said. “Their teams overvalue them in terms of making trades, they don’t want to give them away for nothing. There’s no reason to give up significant assets for players who probably will be available next summer. That doesn't mean a deal can’t get done, but it is complicated.”

  • clydesmoustache says 1 month ago Great article Rahat! I was one of the ones upset about the lowry, scola, hayes breakup but in my defense it seemed like he was a crazed stalker after the prom queen (Dwightamite!). I am full on humble pie these days. I don't try to understand morey these days just strap myself in for the ride! :)

    I am so conflicted on bledsoe my brain hurts thinking about it.
  • thejohnnygold says 1 month ago

    @JG

    interesting point of view. I totally disagree but interesting. on one hand you say Bledsoe is aninjury prone, J-Lin caliber, transient who has been giving away for next to nothing each time he moved. and on the other you say he is a MAX PG andto obtain him will cost a bundle. which is it? we can't sign Bledsoe to a five year contract because we have already used theoption on Harden. Bledsoe has had two meniscus surgeries true and probably will develop chronic knee problems in the later years of his career, however that will take several years to catch up with him and won't affect him during the life of this contract. Bledsoe is a star talent and what he produced for Phoenix last year when healthy is no fluke.

    That's not what I said. Look back at my post--those quotation marks around "Max PG" are there for a reason--because those aren't my words. The perception by most is that Bledsoe is some kind of huge upgrade. People seem to think someone is going to get him...he's available....why not us?

    I do not think Bledsoe is a max-level PG. I think his ceiling is likely around Kyle Lowry's....but only if Lowry spent most of his time rehabbing his knees.

    I forgot about the 5 yr. contract limitation. Good. Maybe that keeps him away from us.

    Dudley is an all right player--he had spent years in the league mostly riding the pine before finally cracking the starting rotation in Phoenix by becoming a 3&D guy. Given that the entire league had been drooling over Bledsoe for a solid year+ by then I still contend that the Clippers got very little return in that trade.

    Again, we've already got a guy who is going to give us close to whatever Bledsoe brings who is also still improving. Does Bev's offense make you say, "WOW"? Not very often. However, I do think people are selling him short on that end of the court. We'll find out. We don't need him to be Kyrie Irving, Russell Westbrook, or John Wall. His usg% from last season was just under 15%--how many starting caliber PG's are going to be cool with that?

    Oooooh, look. An 11 minute highlight video :) . Surely this is 100% conclusive proof of Beverley's offensive mastery :unsure:. All kidding aside, the guy can score every way you can think of (except maybe posting up). He's not elite, but he is capable.

  • feelingsupersonic says 1 month ago

    Unless Beverley makes a jump this year I stand by my opinion that Beverley would be best as a defensive specialist game changer off the bench and of course versus second units he may maintain more consistent offensive success over his career.

    As far as Eric Bledsoe goes, i mentioned him over a month ago when the possibility of roping him in seemed like a pipe dream but now that looks much more realistic though still not probable. One thing I mentioned then and I will repeat now is that by acquiring Bledsoe (hopefully short term) one also makes inroads with Rich Paul which could come in handy in the right situation at some later date. Anyroad, at this point I believe they should take a chance on Bledsoe because he may get overpaid next summer and if he doesn't work I am sure Morey could dump him one way or another. I don't know but I lean towards swinging for the fences on this one.

    And to the original topic, I don't have a problem with the way Morey does business. If anything he has been ahead of the curve and the options both teams and players have now is an entirely different landscape from what we came up with as fans in the 80's and 90's (70's for you rockets best fan right?).

  • Red94 says 1 month ago

    I'm torn on Bledsoe. On the one hand, I'm not too thrilled at the prospect of paying someone over $12million to play a position where we already have a very capable player in Beverley. Not just capable, but someone who is clearly impacting the outcome of games, given his advanced stats. But despite the advanced metrics, you can't shake the feeling that he's giving you nothing as an offensive threat late in games.

  • Dayak says 1 month ago Beverley is best fit next to Harden. As long as Harden is a Rockets, i want Beverley to stay.
  • Buckko says 1 month ago

    Dudley just fell off a cliff.

  • Cooper says 1 month ago

    Dudley was perceived as a good player when the clips dealt for him and Reddick so given away is a little harsh. Not completely sold on bledsoe as the answer at pg with the obvious stated issues, No one has put in an offer and there hasn't even been much buzz about teams interested so maybe a likely lotto pick and cap fodder is enough maybe not. Between Bledsoe and Beverly, Bev has similar injury issues and will be in line for 10mill a year if he plays well so the money difference won't be too extreme, I do think bledsoe is better but not sure if he is a early-mid first better even with out mediocre recent 1st round draft history.

    The bev situation is one to watch either way, if he plays well and we can pull in a pf upgrade and/or high quality depth with cap space then resign bev to a big deal its worth paying him but if he gets presented a quality offer early ala CP it could be another awkward situation.

  • rockets best fan says 1 month ago

    @JG

    interesting point of view. I totally disagree but interesting. on one hand you say Bledsoe is aninjury prone, J-Lin caliber, transient who has been giving away for next to nothing each time he moved. and on the other you say he is a MAX PG andto obtain him will cost a bundle. which is it? we can't sign Bledsoe to a five year contract because we have already used theoption on Harden. Bledsoe has had two meniscus surgeries true and probably will develop chronic knee problems in the later years of his career, however that will take several years to catch up with him and won't affect him during the life of this contract. Bledsoe is a star talent and what he produced for Phoenix last year when healthy is no fluke.

  • thejohnnygold says 1 month ago

    I agree. Bev is better than Bledsoe.

    I can only assume you are being sarcastic. (Yay!) Not at all what I was saying. That being said--I wouldn't bet against it. He is one more knee injury from joining the Brandon Roy All Stars. It's not hard to be better than someone who can't play.

    saw a rumor that the Suns are shopping bledsoe. his O is better than Bevs and his D is about as good. if we can get up for a first and one of the PF's do we do it if we still have around 8MM left for another FA? My guess is probably not, but otherwise who is going to be a FA to sign with us. I don't see us having the assets at this point to trade for a top player. Our picks are going to be high #/low value and unless a PF takes a big step, no one really as trade bait

    This his been discussed thoroughly and repeatedly. Trades must work for BOTH teams. What on Earth do we give Phoenix that they want besides a slew of assets. From what I have seen, 1 person around here believes Bledsoe can be had for the Pellies pick and D-Mo. He has his logic, but I do not agree at all. What are we going to give up that could even crack their starting 5 rotation? Yet, they are going to hand over Bledsoe out of the goodness of their hearts? Even in a down market you don't give away "max PG's" for a scrub and a non-guaranteed lotto pick. Maybe if Steve Kerr was still the GM....

    Meanwhile, the grim reality that Bledsoe is about to be on his 4th roster in 4 years (OKC, LAC, PHO, and ???), was given away for next to nothing every time he has been moved, has had two meniscus surgeries on the same knee (one of them the bad kind), has yet to prove much more than Jeremy Lin did during Linsanity (40 games as a starter: 18 ppg, 5 ast, 5 reb), and is demanding a 5 year max deal (which he has in no way earned) doesn't seem to scare anyone off (at least in this forum--GM's seem to see it). I wouldn't take him for more than the Pellies pick, personally. The guy is over-rated and is trying to get paid before his knee cartilage disintegrates completely.

    Getting back on topic, this trade won't go down because of Morey. He weighs all sides including contingencies like everything I mentioned above. The odds of Bledsoe being worth the risk are so very, very low. That is a 5 year commitment--you feeling lucky? This is especially true when you consider we have a PG who, entering his third year, is ahead of Bledsoe at the same stage of his career. Remember, Bev's going into year 3 while Bledsoe is entering year 5.

    Think that doesn't matter? Compare James Harden's first two years to his 4th/5th year's production. LINK :P

  • John P says 1 month ago

    saw a rumor that the Suns are shopping bledsoe. his O is better than Bevs and his D is about as good. if we can get up for a first and one of the PF's do we do it if we still have around 8MM left for another FA? My guess is probably not, but otherwise who is going to be a FA to sign with us. I don't see us having the assets at this point to trade for a top player. Our picks are going to be high #/low value and unless a PF takes a big step, no one really as trade bait

  • timetodienow1234567 says 1 month ago I agree. Bev is better than Bledsoe.
  • thejohnnygold says 1 month ago

    Well said, Rahat.

    John P- We have Beverley's bird rights. His situation is very dependent on this season's performance and which, if any, free agent we bring in between now and then. Way too soon to predict his future with the team. I agree with those who see him as a starting caliber PG on a championship team. Now, you never know. He may go into Morey's office after this season and demand a max deal. I highly doubt it, but you never know....it hasn't stopped Eric Bledsoe.

    Just for fun--Patrick Beverley's first year per36 numbers are better than Bledsoe's 1st and 2nd year per 36 numbers. He had better points, rebounds, assists, and steals with a much better 3p%. In year 2 his assists/rebs dropped due to his role.

    Bledsoe's year 3 per36 numbers are about what I'm expecting from Bev: 15 pts, 5 ast, 5 reb, 2 stl, 39% 3p%. If Bev hits those numbers he will be in position to reasonably ask for some major moolah.

  • rockets best fan says 1 month ago

    Morey is in a situation where you're damned if you do and DAMNED if you don't. I have consistently said the man is in the top 5 in GM's in the league. I don't always agree with him, but understand his logic in just about everymove he has done. until he wins a championship he will never get the recognition he deserves. some of his ideas have changed the way teams in the NBA do business.

    Morey really begin to shine in my eyes about 2 years before this new CBA was signed. while some teams were struggling to conform to the new rules. Morey had us positioned perfectly to take advantage of the new rules. we had the cap flexibility that allowed us to be predators in this new environment. it took a minute to catch our prey, but some teams are still trying to gain thatadvantage. I could probably talk for an hour on how his analytical approach has changed the way players are viewed. his poison pill contracts to Lin and Asik have changed how teams sign second round picks. there are so many fronts he has the Rockets positioned at the cutting edge on..........look how teams are starting to use the D-league now. when Morey took over this team we were in the Yao and T-Mac years and he did a nice job filling in around them, but the fact neither could stay healthy never allowed that team to get off the ground. the job he did in the transition years (years between Yao/T-Mac and Harden) he manage to keep uswinning while accumulating assets. that's a big knock on Morey.........he sees players as assets not humans. that's the biggest plate of doo doo you will ever hear. all teams see their players as assets. why do you think they pay them so much?what players do you know left Houston sorry for having ever been here? think of how many young players in the league owe their big break to Morey. he saw talent in them when others were looking the other way. if you hold up thesuccessof his draft picks, his % in getting it right considering where he was picking from would probably be among the top %'s for all GM's. they may not all make it here, but many have caught on in other spots and craved out a spot on other teams. now he has us positioned with two stars in our backpocket and the FLEXIBILITY to chase a third. just because he hasn't hit another home run doesn't mean he won't hit another one. the man is smart. he didn't lead us to this position by accident. yeah there is a little luck involved, but lucklend itself to the prepared. I don't care how many stars hit the market, unless you have the tools to make moves your efforts are futile. it amazes meother front offices are critical ofhim then turn around an emulate his actions. Houston is lucky we have a excellent GM

  • Johnny Rocket says 1 month ago

    Are there any data that compare roster turnover on the Rox to the rest of the league? If I had to bet, I'd say that the Rox had more roster turnover than average, but not nearly to the degree it is made out, but that is just a guess.

  • John P says 1 month ago

    Agreed....and it seems pretty obvious but most people making the chemistry argument are probably casual observers of the NBA/Rockets and so don't realize the potential/lack there of, of certain players/teams/combinations.

    What I want to know is, what is next? I think I saw that with some minor moves (keeping Harden, Howard, Ariza and Beverley) we could add at ~15MM or so player. Is that true? It seems to me that we will have to pay Beverley next year so probably it is only a core of Harden, Howard and Ariza as a starting point. Any ideas? I don't see that we have that much to trade unless people like Ariza's declining contract as the cap rises, and DMo or Jones makes enough strides to be tradeable. With us being good enough to make the playoffs in the next 2 to 3 years automatically, we will have to probably sign free agents to build up, rather than trade for a big piece (like Bosh could have been).

    Thoughts?