If you had to select one NBA team most associated with advanced statistical analysis, Billy Beane, the Oakland Athletics, and the transcendental phenomenon that is “Moneyball”, it’d be the Houston Rockets. From their forward thinking general manager to being the subject of an enthralling, Michael Lewis branded work of narrative non-fiction, the Rockets are as “groundbreaking” in NBA circles as Oakland was to MLB. This is both kind of cool (it makes the Rockets feel ahead of the curve—at least they were—and trendsetters in a profession crawling with copy cats), and very unfortunate.
Things didn’t work for Oakland; they’ve won just one playoff series since 2000, never coming out on top in the proverbial (and literal) final game of the season. However, it did work for the Boston Red Sox, but they had Manny Ramirez, Curt Schilling, David Ortiz, Pedro Martinez, and Johnny Damon. At the time of their first championship in 2004, only one of them (Ortiz) could safely fall under the bargain hunting philosophy. And so it seems that the best way to win a World Series is to combine yacht loads of money with statistical gym rats who’re all but content locked in a basement somewhere, scribbling new formulas and calculating which players fit where, and why. (Although baseball’s a spin of the roulette wheel in that even when you have both those factors working in your favor—ie the 2008 Red Sox—it’s possible for a team whose entire payroll barely matches your middle infield’s annual salary to take you out back and beat you like something was inadvertently stolen.)
So just how “Moneyball” are the Houston Rockets? And is frugal free agent shopping as much a winning formula in basketball as it was in baseball? Oakland may not have won in the postseason but they did accrue a couple 100 win seasons. Their strategy didn’t win a ring, but it did work.
Since joining Red94 as a regular contributor I’ve written approximately 263,684 words on the hopeful sum of Houston’s collectively undervalued roster. Almost every guy on the team was left for dead by another organization, and combining them all together could create a pack of wild underdogs who just might defy the odds by thriving in their own specialized role someday. In recent history, nobody in the league defined the new age way of thinking more than guys like Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, and Chase Budinger. Unfortunately this still doesn’t solve the obvious and exhausting “no-superstar” dilemma which has plagued the team since Yao Ming began his dark decent into an early retirement. In basketball—and baseball and football and soccer—a superstar(s) is still needed to win championships. Stats are great for deciding who belongs along the fringe, who can contribute the most towards having the city’s mayor plan a parade, but at basketball’s premier level of competition these players can only go so far with their abilities, and no matter how well they work together, when facing off against a supremely talented group in a playoff series they’ll almost always lose. They can get you 43 wins, but if you don’t have that central figure there’s only so far before the road crumbles off a cliff.
Houston is a muddled mess of those players. Forget about superstars, the Rockets haven’t had a single member of their team legitimately make an All-Star team since Yao in 2009. Right now their slew of forwards are scrappy enough to go undefeated in a league wide fight club, but they have no true center to back them up. Almost all of them are either understated or just not very good, and any could be dealt on a dime. The one part of the team that stands championship worthy today is the starting back court: Kyle Lowry and Kevin Martin. Two players who are Moneyball, and two players who define underdog mentality.
Just a few words on them both. A few years ago the Rockets acquired Kyle Lowry in a three-team trade. The only player they lost in the deal was Rafer Alston. The move was seen as minor, two backup point guards who wore out their welcome and needed to start anew in a different city. With Mike Conley Jr. set to be their point guard of the future, Memphis figured trading a 22-year-old Kyle Lowry was more than manageable. They effectively decided Conley Jr., the fourth overall draft pick in 2007, was a better player than the 24th overall draft pick in 2006. That makes enough sense, right?
A lot of factors go into winning basketball games, and who’s your starting point guard is a major one. Since February 19th, 2009, the day of the trade, Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Lowry have squared off nine times (four of them with Lowry as Houston’s starter). Houston is 8-1 in those nine games. As I said, a lot of factors go into winning basketball games, and it’d be silly to equate a Lowry vs. Conley Jr. match-up with the complex struggle that goes on between two whole teams, but still, that record is pretty interesting.
Moving onto Kevin Martin—otherwise known as the most underrated player of his generation—his ability to get to the free-throw line and then hit almost every one he’s awarded makes him comparable to MLB’s “Greek God of Walks”, Kevin Youkilis. Next season he’ll shoulder his way beside the league’s well known faces, finish in the top 10 in several statistical categories associated with putting the ball in the basket, and, most likely, remain known as that shadowy figure who looks funny shooting. Of course, that last point doesn’t matter.
If Martin can equal what he did in 2011 in 2012, and Lowry can continue his undeterred ascension towards the point guard elite, two/fifths of the Rockets starting five will officially be cemented as extremely dangerous. Both were acquired through the Moneyball principles of worth and usefulness, and both might someday be the cornerstone pieces helping Houston battle for a championship. In turn making the Moneyball philosophy a proven winner in a sport that’s yet to have a true contrarian end as the victor.
Still, in the end, is that what we believe? Isn’t that serious wishful thinking? Yes. Yes, it is. In the end they’re in the same boat as over half the league. All they need is a superstar.
