One argument which is often trotted out against Moreyball is that a reliance on free throws will not work in the more physical postseason. Referees will call fewer fouls and thus it will be more important to hit that mid-range jump shot. But the reality is there is no evidence that the refs swallow their whistles more in the postseason. For example, the 2013-14 Rockets shot 31 free throws a game in the regular season. Against Portland, that dropped all the way to 30.
And as tonight showed, you don’t need to wait until the postseason for the referees to swallow their whistles. Zach Randolph hacked Harden on Houston’s final drive, Marc Gasol made a tough jumper over Terrence Jones, and the Rockets lost a chance to come within half a game of second place in the West. The game was not lost just by the fact that Houston grabbed only 5 free throw attempts tonight (the same amount as during that other badly-reffed game of the season against Chicago), but it did not help.
So what were the other reasons for tonight’s loss? The big problem, especially during the second half, was that Houston just does not have the size to fight Randolph-Gasol without Dwight Howard. The Rockets entered the second half with a 59-54 lead, but then those two scored or assisted on every Memphis bucket for the first 10 minutes of the third quarter. Terrence Jones played well, Josh Smith was okay, and Donatas Motiejunas was awful. But none of them could stop Gasol and Randolph from getting into the paint and causing havoc.
As noted above, Motiejunas in particular struggled throughout the game. Part of that could be attributed to another poor call. With 8:21 left in the second quarter, Motiejunas was called for a blocking foul, his third of the game, despite being clearly set. This forced him out for the rest of the half, and the Rockets resorted to playing (gulp) Dorsey.
However, Motiejunas’s 4-12 shooting performance is his worst scoring game efficiency-wise in almost two months. Instead, Terrence Jones had an All-Star caliber performance tonight. He scored 21 points, grabbed 9 rebounds, and hit several key shots down the final stretch. But as long as Howard is out, the Rockets need Jones and Motiejunas to not just play well, but to fill in for Howard’s role as a rim protector. And it would be nice if both of them could play well at the same time.
The Rockets have three fundamental weaknesses. If they lose in the playoffs, it will be due to an inability to overcome said weaknesses. They do not have enough size without Howard. Even when he returns, Houston will need to figure out what to do when he sits. They rely too much on Harden to create their entire offense, which is the reason for their horrendous turnover rate. Prigioni could help with this, but McHale did not play him tonight. And for as much as people talk about Moreyball, the Rockets are not a good three-point shooting team. Tonight, the first mistake did them in.
Also, a shout-out to Patrick Beverley, who seems to be getting out of that horrible slump of the past few weeks. Since returning from his flu-like symptoms, he is shooting 44% from long-range in the past four games. The Rockets need Beverley to make his shots and not be the next Rafer Alston. Trevor Ariza shot extremely well – from mid-range. He missed all four of his three-pointers.
The Rockets can point to a lot of positives tonight. Despite a major size disadvantage, they managed to battle the third-best NBA team to what should have been an overtime game. And while the ending sucked, Houston is still 13-3 in games decided by 5 points or less. A great deal of what we call “clutch” comes down to mere luck. Houston will win some and lose some in that situation, and things just went badly for them tonight. They need to figure out how to tangle with big teams without Howard, Donatas Motiejunas needs to regain his play from earlier in the season, and it will be nice to see Houston get the call and the free throw for a change.
But these are things which can be fixed or improved upon. And with a little over a month left until the Playoffs, the Rockets must work to iron out the last few kinks – kinks which cost them tonight just as much as one stupid call.
