A little over one month ago, the city of Houston sat wide-eyed and speechless beside the rest of the world’s basketball watching community as David Stern overruled a league-altering trade that the Rockets were heavy participants in. You know the details, and so do I. Revisiting what might have been and tinkering the pieces has been beaten to death more times than Steven Spielberg’s beloved War Horse, but what I’m about to touch on is different in that it is as much theoretical as it is literal. I find this deal interesting due to the polarity it’s sure to arouse, and the ideological foxholes those on each side of the argument will find themselves digging into.
Here’s the question: Rating each player purely on their value in the here and now, in today’s NBA—excluding salary restrictions, contract longevity, and age (as difficult as that may be) as possible factors—would you trade Kyle Lowry for Pau Gasol?
There are several things one can conclude based on whether the response is yes or no. If you say yes—replacing Lowry with Gasol will make Houston a better basketball team—then clearly you value the traditional winning metrics of size and “superstar” power as a prerequisite to contending relevance. The importance of deploying a towering Haitian/Spanish monster on opponents is far more serious of a weapon than the league’s most destructive 6-footer.
On the contrary (and this is ignoring the obvious in believing Kyle Lowry is superior to Pau Gasol), by saying no you probably recognize one of the following two things as fact: 1) Lowry is either on the cusp of “superstar” status or has already been baptized as one. He’s far and away the best rebounder at his position; makes opposing point guards hysterical with his defense; conducts the offense with brilliant decisions; bangs the three with unlimited range; and gets everyone involved with elusive passes that would make a cat burglar blush. It should be a foregone conclusion that come February he’ll make his first All-Star team.
2) You believe the league’s ever-shifting tendency to favor those who initiate the action over those who finish it has an increasing role regarding wins and losses. Lowry’s value as someone who enables those around him is insanely high right now, and his absolute limitations as a basketball player have yet to be realized. Watching him improve by the possession is like playing tether ball with an immeasurable amount of rope—who knows when he’ll max out?
When this question is looked at on a macro-level, what this supposed deal also discusses is how you define the word “superstar” in today’s NBA.
Here’s what I believe to be the simplest measurement: ask yourself, “Can Player X be the leading performer on a legitimate championship contender?” This is Dwight Howard, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose, LeBron James, Dirk Nowitzki, and possibly LaMarcus Aldridge. (There are two “sidekicks” who also qualify as “superstars”: Dwyane Wade and Russell Westbrook.)
Is Gasol a superstar right now? And for what it’s worth, is Lowry?
Can either take a group of lesser parts and make each and every one of them come together to form purpose-filled unit, just by existing on the court? Right now it’s tough to say either has that ability, but Lowry is certainly closer.
Comparing their stats would be silly and out of context, but who cares, let’s go for it anyway. (We won’t compare assists because that’d make things EXTRA ridiculous, but for the record Lowry sits fourth in the entire league with 8.7 per game.)
Kyle Lowry: 16.5 PPG, 56.4 TS%, 22.1 PER, 22.5 USG%, 10.6 TRB%, 3.7 shots attempted at the rim (SAATR)
Pau Gasol: 15.8 PPG, 55.1 TS%, 19.4 PER, 20.0 USG%, 13.9 TRB%, 3.3 SAATR
I mean, this data is scary. Kyle Lowry is nearly a foot shorter than Pau Gasol, yet he takes more shots at the rim, is nearly rebounding the ball at the same rate, and has a higher true shooting percentage.
In the original deal involving Kevin Martin, Luis Scola, and Goran Dragic, the Rockets would’ve had Gasol and Lowry at their disposal. There was no debate as to whether or not it was a smart deal to make. This hypothetical one for one swap, however, is a different beast. It’s size for speed; an operator of decisions against the machine who acts them out. Maybe it’s a little unfair to pose this question while one player is scorching the league and the other appears to be undergoing natural regression, but the principles still apply.
Who’s it going to be? Kyle Lowry or Pau Gasol?
