- The difference last night was Jeremy Lin. I don’t think it takes too much analysis to arrive at that conclusion. Howard and Parsons, for the most part, repeated their series production; Harden too, while his point outputs have fluctuated, his overall efficiency (or lack thereof), has remained relatively consistent. Jeremy Lin is the one other big gun on this team and aside from some stellar play in Game 1, he’s been relatively awful this series, before last night, with that point punctuated by some critical mental errors late in games. The Rockets must have Mr. Lin active and engaged, especially when the other team is guarding him with a lesser defender. He can get to the rim almost at will, against most defenders, but as are most things with Lin, the matter seems purely mental. And that last point has become increasingly clear with each passing game pushing through a larger sample size. When he messes up, the errors are the sort that come as a function of anxiety and timidity: he doesn’t just miss shots; he dribbles the ball too high and loses it or airs wide open looks. And when he’s rolling, he’s absolutely rolling, as he was last night. In fact, in twenty years of following this team, I don’t think I can remember seeing a more emotionally volatile player wear its uniform. No one does more off adrenaline, becomes more self-destructive from an over-awareness of the self. As for the panic attacks, little can be done. But going forward, even if the Rockets survive this series and proceed to the next, the Rockets must look to establish Lin early in games so that he isn’t rendered completely useless by the end of them. We saw the 1-2 Lin/Harden pick and roll in spurts in Game 1 only to, as is the case for this McHale-led team with most plays that actually work, never see it again the rest of the series. If defenders plan to key in completely on Harden, the Rockets must make them pay with other dribble-drive threats. Lin, unlike Chandler Parsons–who the team curiously fed late in the Game 4 loss, is just too big and athletic for most point guards and too quick for most wings. Yes, yes, yes, “he sucks”, I know; he is not without flaw and if unleashed, is prone to the shot over the backboard (or something similar) at least once a game. He’s not Goran Dragic, yes, I get that too; you, my friend, are preaching to the choir. But there’s no way Mr. Lin should ever be getting shut out. He’s just far too talented to not give you at least 10 points while putting pressure on the opposition’s interior defense.
- I made the point earlier that the Rockets were the more talented team, a statement which drew some disagreement. Lets assume Aldridge and Howard are peer equals on the NBA landscape. Before this series, I don’t think anyone ranked Lillard higher than Harden. Parsons and Batum are mirror images. That leaves Asik-Lin-Beverley vs. Lopez-Mathews…andd…Mo Williams? Terrence Jones is also superior to any big man off the Blazers’ bench. This is a pointless debate but I think Houston is the better team, based on talent. Let’s put it this way: before the season began, just based on paper, what were the expectations? Unanimously, everyone picked Houston to finish in the Top 4 out West while it was in question whether the Blazers could even make the playoffs. Obviously, there’s a factor at play that has had quite an impact for both teams and that same factor has also been the difference so far this series. I’ll let you guess what that is.
- While Aldridge coming back down to earth was expected, I didn’t foresee a clunker like his performance last night when he turned in just 8 points on 3-12 shooting. Unless the Longhorn is putting up his usual production, the Blazers don’t stand a chance. To wit, Aldridge is terrific, but he isn’t quite as good as some of the hyperbole following the series’ first 2 games made him out to be. Having one of Asik or Dwight Howard, or at times even both, on him at all times, of course, helps.
- After I embarrassingly predicted ‘Houston in 5′ before play began, I amended that forecast to Blazers in 6. After the first two losses, I thought the Rockets were far too talented to be swept and picked the Rockets to take Games 3 and 5. I also picked the Blazers to close things out at home, in Game 6. So that’s where we are. Houston just has to approach this one game at a time, as I’m sure they’ve done, and let the chips fall. I don’t really buy into the tropes about “all of the pressure being on [insert team who actually has the series lead]”, but hey, whatever helps. (But let’s be serious here. I don’t think a team that choked away homecourt is actually more loose than their opponent because of the fact they’ve underperformed and, as the thinking goes, have nothing to lose. They have everything to lose!)
- So we’ll see. Game 6 is on Friday. If they pull it out, anything can happen.
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