Huq’s Pen: On a lot of things

If you hadn’t yet noticed, notes are filed under ‘Huq’s Pen’ simply when having no particular topic.  Much is on the agenda for today.

  • There are, ostensibly, two new members of the Houston Rockets as we speak.  Rookie forwards Marcus Morris and Greg Smith were each called up to the big leagues in the past week.  I chatted at length with Smith on Sunday and will catch up with Morris sometime tomorrow.  I’ll say this: that’s one young lockerroom.  Teammates ribbed the 20-year-old Smith on Sunday when first, he mistakenly sat in Courtney Lee’s chair, and then, sat in Jonny Flynn’s.  Remarked Flynn, while waiting patiently, “one good game and he’s taking our seats.”

  • Smith spoke much of strategy: that he only had to, as they say, “come out and play hard.”  I spoke at length about opportunity just last week, citing the case of Jeremy Lin.  Smith’s the latest case for my thesis.  It’s nearly impossible to break through as a point guard.  If you’re a big, or even a wing, court time allows a chance to fight, scrap, defend, and be noticed.  Success is effort-oriented.  But for a point guard, there’s no way to try harder.  The one talent which you hope to display, for which you will be rewarded further time, is precision.  That same precision is dependent upon outside trust.  For a point guard, you have to be handed the keys to show your stuff, truth which makes the Jeremy Lin story all-the-more remarkable.  Perhaps we should all be investing in some form of deity rather than common stock?
  • Speaking of Smith, as I said Sunday night, I’m excited.  The two–scratch that–three things that stand out are his solid base, the mentions of his ‘smarts’, and his overall enthusiasm.  Jordan Hill may not ever have NBA-level lower body strength.  (We won’t touch on his IQ.)  But Smith, at just 20, is already full grown.  Observers noted in the preseason his ability to hold ground against defenders, a trait rarely seen from a player so young.  We’ve seen what both Chuck Hayes and Patrick Patterson can do, the effect they can have on this team using basketball IQ and foundational strength.  But neither has/had Smith’s natural size (he’s 6’10.)  The team doesn’t need him to score in the post or hit jumpshots.  What they need is the energy Hill has brought on occasion but without the mental lapses.  If Smith can stay active and play within the system, not getting lost in rotations, he should take Hill’s job.  It’s time now to start developing players for the future, and in this case, in replacement of Hill, the team’s present picture won’t be sacrificed.
  • Did anyone see Tracy McGrady’s comments in the paper the other day?  It seems the old chap is upset over playing time having gotten just four minutes the other night.  Like it or not, like Grant Hill, Mac’s a bonafide success story.  He’s one of the few cases of a former star accepting his current plight and adapting, making the most of other abilities to fill a different niche.  The way he’s handled himself since returning from microfracture should be commended not mocked.  How’s this for a fun thought exercise: the Rockets trade Scola, Martin, and Dragic to the Lakers for Pau Gasol.  They then trade Williams to the Hawks for McGrady, making the latter their backup point guard.  Why not?  Williams isn’t coming back and McGrady has proven dependable at running an offense.  It’d never happen–there was too much bad blood after the breakup–but it sure would be interesting.
  • Speaking of trades, we’re inching closer to the deadline and Luis Scola has looked increasingly out of place.  Notice he didn’t play a minute of crunch time last night and has seen less time overall in the 4th, in general?  Perhaps a sign my prayers have been answered.  Patterson just gives the team a better chance to win when on the floor, now that he’s healthy.  He isn’t the post presence, but the defensive disparity is sufficient.  So what to do with Scola?  With his talents, he’s a nice piece, but at 31, a drastically depreciating asset.  You almost fear they’ve waited too late to deal him and darker days lay ahead.  I, for one, have been advocating a trade of the Argentinian since ’09 much to the chagrin of many readers.  I just hope it’s not too late.  Outside of a Gasol deal, I don’t know what value Luis would have to other teams.
  • It appears Kyle Lowry ‘got his groove back’ sometime over the weekend, fueling the Rockets to impressive victories over key opponents.  A pity it hadn’t come earlier or the team might have had a representative in the midseason classic.  How embarrassing would it be for the local guys to not have a host next season?  Think Stern will step in and help out for his past sins?  Speaking of which, I think someone at the NBA office messed up the inter-office memo: Bud was supposed to be in the ‘shooting stars’ contest while the guy shooting 40% was inked in for the dunk contest.  Respectfully, Commissioner Stern.
  • We’re nearing the midway mark and the Rockets sit at 6th in the West with a chance to move higher.  Thoughts?  Reactions?  They’ll make the playoffs.  Oh, they’ll make the playoffs.  But was this what you defined as success?  The team will, if things hold, sacrifice it’s first-round draft pick to the Nets and get back something middle-of-the-pack from the Knicks…..or, or, let me put it all another way: the Rockets have no surefire route to improve the roster heading into next offseason.  Perhaps they can swing a trade or a miraculous signing.  But I’m having trouble seeing the steps that will take this team to the next shelf.  Either way, what they’ve done on the court, playing under a new coach, is to be commended.  I don’t think many outside of Houston were predicting a finish any higher than 9th.
  • Since I’ve been watching–1994–it’s the worst the West has ever looked.  Oh, there’s parity.  There’s parity.  But gone are those super-legend squads from yesterday against whom the Rockets just had no chance.  The Kemp-Payton Sonics; the HOF Jazz; The classic Spurs; The Kobe-Shaq Lakers; the Webber Kings; the Mavs in their hey-day.  Down the line, there’s no team, including the Thunder, whom one can point to and say, “the Rockets don’t stand a chance against this team in a series.”  And that’s precisely what makes this so frustrating.  It’s there for the taking.  Let’s hope Daryl Morey can bring in the talent to help get it done.
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I have long disagreed about your view of tanking. I do think you are right that Scola no longer allows us the best chance to win, and it is time to trade him. I can see the logic of your point had we traded him 2 years ago we would have gotten more for him, but we won several games the past 2 seasons because of his scoring (certainly not his defense). Regarding what the right decision for the management to make 2 years ago given those facts maybe it comes down to who is there most important constituency (not the best word, but I couldn't think of another)

I am a season ticket holder and unabashedly will say that I would have been angered had we traded Scola for potential 2 years ago. I pay a significant amount of money to come watch basketball and want to see a competitive team. For me watching basketball is in itself enjoyable I need competent games not some greater significance of a championship run. Nice to have certainly but not essential. In general many personal season ticket holders (not corporate seats) view it the same way. Unless the basketball gets terrible they are in.

I have long been told that season ticket holders are the only people NBA franchises care about. I think with regional TV contracts growing that this may change and really the goal is to maximize your local viewership? If that is the case then I think they should tank, because TV viewers I feel will be much more fickle. If you are mediocre you don't exist. If you suck you don't exist. If you are above average you may get a little traction and then if you are a competitor you will be rolling in ratings.

I think it will be curious to see if managements approach changes as the teams financial drivers fluctuate.

Personally I still hope they don't tank, and if I think they do I will not get season tickets the following year. I actually don't have them this year, but that was because of the lock out. I felt the owners didn't deserve my money.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

this is really interesting. what percentage of season ticket holders would you say feel the same way?

andrewmoccasin 6 pts

rahathuq As a fellow season ticket I feel the same way.

"I pay a significant amount of money to come watch basketball and want to see a competitive team. For me watching basketball is in itself enjoyable. I need competent games not some greater significance of a championship run."

Pretty much sums it up for me right there. Were this a legitimate tanking team I probably wouldn't pay to see them in person. I'd wish them the best and abstain from watching games for my own personal health.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

andrewmoccasin would you guys come back next year though if they had a top lottery pick on the roster?

Please start another sentence with "I" and forget to use commas.

TwistedNematic 5 pts

I'm probably the only person in the world who feels this way, but I'm unbelievably excited to see Budinger in the dunk contest. Who was the last rocket that participated? There's a great video going around where he supposedly jumps over a cardboard cut out of yao ming. I think Chase knows he cant win on pure athleticism so he's going to have get creative. I really hope the majestic one makes a cameo...

Rockets making the playoff is a small success ie; we need some national recognition if we're gonna draw in a star.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

TwistedNematic yeah im excited too. i think he can win it.

I am beginning to subscribe to the theory of motion in the NBA. If you're team isn't moving, then your team is just standing still. Even if we don't get the better side of a trade. Then the Rockets get worse and draft picks improve. I actually think that the future isn't too far away. That could certainly be dillusional, but I don't think the required superstar thing is true. I know people say you have to have a superstar to win. But I would have been happy seeing the Rockets work like the Pistons did. For some time, people thought the combo needed to be a big man and a guard a la Shaq and Kobe, but that isn't the thought anymore.

I am a sucker for PER. I know its faults, but I continue to see we don't have a PF in the top 40 of PER rankings for PF. Someone recently said that Scola was a top 50 player? I am not sure he is top 50 at his position. PER doesn't take into account defense, and I watched Scola try to defend the high pick and roll against Golden State and it was scary bad. If I was actually trying to be honest about who we could obtain within reason, I wouldn't be against seeing a PF combo of Patterson and Kris Humphries. He is in the last year of a one year deal, and nobody gives him much love, but the kid could be good. I know that doesn't light anybody up, but interested to hear thoughts.

Frogs07 5 pts

The key difference between the current Rockets and 2004 Pistons is that Detroit had a formidable front court. They had multiple players they could rely on. Their low post presence was athletic, mobile, and committed to defense.

2004 Figures

B. Wallace - 10 pts, 12 reb

R. Wallace - 14 pts, 7 reb

M. Okur - 10 pts, 6 reb

Totals: 34 pts, 25 reb

The Rockets low post is much weaker in defense and production:

2012 Figures

S. Dalembert - 7 pts, 8 reb

L. Scola - 15 pts, 6 reb

P. Patterson - 7 pts, 4 reb

Totals: 29 pts, 18 reb.

Morey tried to address this issue by securing Nene and Pau to bolster low post presence and help on offense, while also securing Chuck Wagon's defensive prowess.

2012 Figures

P. Gasol - 17 pts, 11 reb

Nene - 13 pts, 8 reb

C. Hayes- 3pts, 5 reb

Totals: 33 pts, 25 reb

The numbers of the proposed frontcourt would be different as their current figures reflect their performance on seperate teams, but you can see that Morey correctly identified the front court as the single most important issue to improve the Rockets. Any plans to get better go through re-tooling the low post. But this will involve securing multiple players as a unit.

Unfortunately, there are very few teams, if any, who are willing to deal their big men today.

Let's see what Morey can architect next (without league interference).

.

Frogs07

The re-tooling might take a few yrs to pay off,but it's begun.

There's Motie coming over next season. There are several fairly raw/young tall big men who might be coming out this yr,in which case I'd expect the Rockets to go after one w/the Knick's pick. Patterson is starting to come along nicely. Smith is rather iffy,but in a best case turns into a jumping Hayes-lite.

My random prediction,the Rockets end up making a three-team deal w/Lakers and Minn and end up w/ Gasol.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

no way is he top 50

GabrielBarbieri 5 pts

Great post and I follow this forum quite religiously at this point.

I think looking towards the future the question needs to be asked (not that this forum has whiffed on the phenomena in the past):

What is it about this city that superstar free agents don't like?

There's a solid core of personnel, an extensively above average management system, a HOFer as head coach, no state taxes, 3rd or 4th biggest market in the country AND excellent cuisine/strip club options. I've been in the H for almost a decade now and the only thing I've found disagreeable (and is in no way relevant to basketball) is the hipsteriffic Austinite/New Yorker/Los Angelino crowd that's arrived in the past few years (aka WASHINGTON AVE).

Why are/were we not considered serious contenders in the D12/Deron/CP3/Amaré/Melo/etc etc etc sweepstakes? Because if you think we are, I suspect you're delusional.

GabrielBarbieri

To be fair,Melo only wanted to go to a NY team,so everybody else was out of contension.

The Rockets looked at Amare three times and each time ultimately said no because of health concerns.

When T-Mac forced his trade out of Orlando,he preferred Houston because of Yao.(In other words,get the first star and you suddenly become very attractive to others.)

Dwight appears to want to team up w/another star,and the one he's picked is Deron Williams.

Deron Williams can make more money staying in NJ and is from Dallas,so if he's going to leave NJ,Dallas would be his top choice. Hence Dwight lists NJ and Dallas as two of his three top destinations,w/LA being third because of it being LA and still having Kobe.

Now there have been claims that the Rockets have been in touch w/Deron's people and he hasn't blown them off,and expressed some interest.(How accurate or even if true it was just Williams being polite,don't know.)

And there's the curious case of the Magic accusing Houston of being one of the teams tampering w/Dwight earlier this season. It could have just been Orlando misunderstanding Lee's calls to Howard where he was talking up Houston to Howard. Or it could have been Houston touching bases w/Howard's agent asking if Deron was in Houston would Dwight want to come over.

While I doubt it happens,there's a tiniest slimmer of hope.

In the larger scheme,the best FAs in recent yrs have:

Re-Signed w/their teams. Wade,Gay,Johnson,Marc Gasol,Nene.

Teamed up together. LeBron,Bosh,Davis thinking he was going to team w/Brand.

Went to biggest market that had Cap Room. Amare.

Moved to get closer to family.Brand.

And in the WTF department,the Golden State Warriors have thus far refused to trade Steph Curry for:

Amare

CP3

Dwight

GabrielBarbieri 5 pts

GabrielBarbieri Great insight here. So in your estimation, the negative perception that I'm projecting onto NBA superstars RE: CityofHouston is, at best considerably unfounded or at worst, utter conjecture?

GabrielBarbieri

My personal opinion is that there isn't a negative perception of Houston. But I doubt there's much of a positive perception either.

Top FAs usually stay where they are,want to team w/another,want to go home or want the bright lights of NYC or LA.

Should Houston get a top player,it wll become very attractive to other top players. The big-A catch is getting the first top player.

Re McGrady, He's doing pretty much what Adelman said he should/could do.

I think Martin gets moved instead of Scola. He's got at least one team that wants him and there's no way the Rockets can pay Lee a peer equivalent salary(@ $7mil) and Martin a combined $19mil+,that's superstar pay w/out superstar production. What really bites is Minn would have been happy to trade Pekovic and one of Wes Johnson/Beasley/Webster/Randolph for Martin at beginning of season.

Of course Lee is a complementary SG,who should be teamed w/a scoring SF,or a dominant big. Unless Parsons takes a huge jump offensively next yr,I question whether a Lee/Parsons pairing can consistently score enough.

The Rockets returned the same roster as the 43 win team last yr,except for essentially swapping Dalembert for Chuck. Anyone predicting anything lower than a similar 12-14 range was/is basically saying McHale was/is that much of a downgrade from Adelman.

The problem w/people wanting the Rockets to tank was they forgot there are some dreadful teams in the NBA. Charlotte,Detroit,NJ,Washington,Sac were going to be very bad. No way the Rockets could have gotten into top 5,much less top 3.

In some ways,the Rockets losing their First because they make the Play-Offs is a good thing this yr. Primarily because they can then trade away the 2013 pick if needed as soon as the Draft ends(aside from making the Play-Offs :) .) As a consolation prize,the Rockets should be getting Motie,which is in effect getting their pick after all.

And speaking of trades,the Philly owner just gave an interview where it was clear he is itching to make a trade. I would love to try and pry Turner Evans away from them.

Evan and Nocioni for Martin and Flynn going to Lakers. A second unit of Dragic(acting as SG),Turner(acting as PG),Bud/Morris,Patterson and Smith/Hill looks well balanced. The starting five would have to rely on D,fast breaks and Scola in half court,but it would be fun if Lowry,Lee,Parsons and Scola could get the running game going.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

How has Evan Turner looked? I know he was dreadful to start his rookie year but haven't been paying attention since. Is he worth losing Martin?

mikepina 5 pts

rahathuq I'd say that's a veeeerry interesting hypothetical.

rahathuq

Still can't shoot,adequate defender,nothing special,but gets 4+ assists,8.5 rebounds per 36,has a tad better than 2-1 assist to turnover ratio.

A playmaking SG,rather than a scoring one.

Would you trade Martin for him? Not normally,but if you want enough cap room to go after a max contract it's a big start.

And the Rockets pretty much have to choose between Martin and Lee.

Lee at $7mil and Evans comes to a bit less than Martin's salary. W/a stretch buy-out of Dalembert the Rockets would have some $20mil+ in cap room.

Or a bit less than $20mil by renouncing Lee and Stretching out Dalembert.

In the hypothetical trade,it boils down to Lee and Turner vs Martin. For right now,probably not,for the future,I'd rather gamble on youth over re-signing a 30 yr-old Martin,who has been very inconsistent.

Almost_witty 11 pts

No to T-Mac coming back here. And this is from someone who became a Rockets follower thanks to Tracy. T-Mac should never return to the scene of the crime and his years here were downright criminal. The injuries, the high expectations, the sub-par teams surrounding our stars at first, the rift between him and the organization; all of it is just too much.

Had T-Mac left on better grounds and conducted himself in a way that would lean to a more positive light then a return would be nice. Hell, if done right, it would have been great story. In a picture perfect world, T-mac is traded away from the Rockets. There is no ill feelings. Tracy accepts that his body failed him and his attitude was eating at the team. He welcomes a change but knows that he can't help the team now. Then years later he returns to fill a bench role, to add a spark and give a different veteran voice as he helps this new Rockets team win a ring. Cue Disney music and end scene.

But that didn't happen and while T-Mac is performing well, I don't think him returning to this team would help him or us whatsoever. Especially since I believe he harbors some mental scars due to how things fell into place over the course of his career.

As for the Rockets being 6th. It pains me greatly to actually see our record. For one, the West is wide open which causes the whole veteoed trade to linger around. The whole 'what if'. What if a team of Lowry/Lee/Parsons/Pau/Nene with Flynn/Lin, Bud/Morris, Patterson/Hill and Hayes would have clicked and became a dominant team? I'm not picturing 72-10 dominant but what if we could have over 20 wins and less than ten losses right now. It hurts a bit.

Getting back to reality, our record would be much better if we actually won the games we should have won. Let's not forget that stretch of games where the team was being drop kicked in the third quarter. If you follow me on twitter, you know damn well I can't forget those collapses because I constantly worry about it happening in every game. Plus, the whole turn around with the Wolves is slightly depressing. 1-3 for the season was not what I imagined. If the team can get to 20 wins before hitting 15 losses then I consider it a minor victory but otherwise, I won't have too much hope. Seems like every time you think the Rockets have it figured out they drop two bad games in the same week.

As for trades, yes please. I just hope it is a trade of value and impact. If Morey somehow ends up with nothing or a pu pu platter, I can't help but see people wanting his head. Even if it is no fault of his own, at some point people will look at all the strike outs for stars that he has had. Bosh? Nope. Amar'e? Feasible but passed (rightly so). Melo? Nope. CP3? Nope. Pau/Nene (in theory) YES! Wait, nope. Howard? Doesn't seem possible. Deron? (Can't remember if we were in the midst of this) but nope. Do I blame Morey for this? No but I'm sure there are a few who would.

rahathuq 29 pts moderator

Almost_witty Yeah, I agree on T-Mac. Not happening.


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