Yao Ming – Part 2

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This post is Part 2 of ‘Yao Ming’.

Yao Ming is victim to the most unrealistic of expectations.

As the league’s “best offensive center”—a title holding more rhetorical impact than actual significance—it is concluded he should be capable of carrying a team by his lonesome.  In light of his weaknesses, such an assumption is wholly impractical.

First, Yao is a poor passer and prone to turnovers.  He does not read defenses well and is slow to react against double teams, often stripped by guards from the weakside.  Based on a few spectacular passes his rookie year, it was believed that Yao would blossom into an elite passing big man.  It has not happened.

In addition, despite his magnificent touch, Yao is also a poor shooter outside of the paint.  The team attempted to position him at the high post, like other Adelman 5’s, to start the ’08 season, and the results were disastrous.

Most troubling of all, though, is that Yao is easily neutralized.  He struggles mightily in the pick and roll and does not fare well against smaller centers.

If fronted, Yao is completely taken out of games.  Under normal circumstances, teams can counter a fronting defense by lobbing the ball over the top of the defender.  However, due to Yao’s slow reaction time and poor hands, he is incapable of gathering himself off the high catch, leaving him prone to weak-side blocks.

Yao can also be fronted by just one player.  As Jeff Van Gundy noted during the broadcast of one playoff game last spring, it is not necessary to sandwich Yao with two players as was done by the Blazers throughout the series.  I would argue that it was this faulty strategy that lost Portland the series.

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So this naturally begs the question, if flawed and not truly a franchise player, is Yao worth the max?

In Part 2 of the ‘Discerning Morey’s Philosophy’ series, I had argued that the club should have looked to trade the big man in years past, prior to this latest injury.  However, going forward, the team stands nothing to gain from cutting its ties.

In his current state, Yao’s trade value pales in comparison to his potential real value.

Keeping him (and risking further injury) is justified by the mere possibility of what he could provide in the postseason, if healthy.  In the next few years, any title will undoubtedly have to come through the Los Angeles Lakers.  A healthy Yao would help counter Lakers center Andrew Bynum, forcing him to the bench or rendering him ineffective, making L.A.’s twin-center attack much more manageable to contain.

In addition, for whatever reason, the upper echelon teams in our league typically avoid fronting, preferring more conventional defenses.  Having a low post option such as Yao in the playoffs would be a serious boon.

Letting him walk in free agency would also serve little purpose.  Assuming this summer transpires as expected, renouncing Yao in 2011 would not push the club far enough under the cap to make a splash in free agency.¹  (Yao will undoubtedly exercise his player option this summer.²  If still hurt by the summer of 2011, the issue of re-signing him will be a moot point.)

Finally, the business partnerships enabled by Yao’s presence on the roster allow owner Les Alexander to exceed the luxury tax threshold–as he has announced he will do next year–and to also purchase draft picks as he has done every summer.

Thus, we can conclude that there is probably no better use of the cap space allotted to Yao Ming.

The discussion should be about maximizing the return on and protecting him.  If they are going to pay Yao Ming, the Rockets must have him healthy and effective.  They cannot succeed with idle salary.

Going forward, Yao’s playing time absolutely must be reduced.  His feet can no longer take the pounding of prolonged minutes.  Moreover, rather than as a hub, he must be used as a weapon, milked repeatedly against favorable matchups, but sat when ineffective.

Reducing Yao’s minutes would have the added benefit of forcing the team to diversify its attack.  One of the Rockets’ biggest problems last season was their total dependence upon Yao.  The team would force-feed the post and predictably, the offense would stagnate, grinding to a halt.  When he was shut down, everything would unravel.  And far too often, Yao was shut down.

That leads us to the silver lining in this season:  Yao’s absence has enabled the development of some critical elements.  Aaron Brooks has grown into a lethal scoring threat.  The void in the post allowed Carl Landry to blossom to the point of having trade value sufficient to land Kevin Martin, a legit scorer, Jordan Hill, a mobile ‘big’ who could potentially cover some of Yao’s weaknesses, and two draft picks that could bring in even more help via a trade.  Mediocrity will also bring the team’s highest draft pick since Rudy Gay.

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For nearly a decade, Yao Ming has been the face of the Houston Rockets.  Throughout his time, the organization has been unwavering in its support.  Steve Francis was traded in some part due to his inability to share the ball with Yao; Tracy McGrady after assuming the lion’s share of the blame for the duo’s failures.  When he returns next winter, it will be the third era during Yao’s tenure of which he will be the centerpiece.

At age 30, for Yao, time is running out.  But there remains hope for a happy ending.  Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskus underwent the same reconstructive surgery and returned for a long and productive career.  The same can happen for Yao.

While he may return to a diminished role, Yao remains the key to the team’s future success.  He is still the foundation; the backbone; the anchor of their trademark defense.  Time will tell how Yao’s story ends.  After this latest setback, most would have hung it up; called it a career.  But Yao had the valor to undergo yet another grueling rehabilitation.    After what he had already overcome, it only made sense to return and try again.