Just a quick look at Houston Rockets guard Trevor Ariza’s scoring efficiency (in terms of true shooting%) over the course of this season:
The red line represents league average true shooting% (about 54%). It is rare indeed when Ariza is able to match this number; he has done it only 9 times this season.
And here we show the distribution over these games:
The “norm” curve represents the expected distribution of TS% for 45 games, the number of games Ariza has played thus far, based on season average TS% (about 46%) and the standard deviation (about 13%). The green curve represents the corresponding expected distribution for the following 6 comparable players: Richard Hamilton, Rudy Gay, Luol Deng, O.J. Mayo, Andre Iguodala, and Caron Butler. They were chosen because they are the 6 wing players who’ve played at least 1000 minutes this season that get the closest number of scoring attempts per game to Ariza (about 17). Over the games for these 6 comparable players, the mean TS% for them was 52% and the standard deviation was 13%. You can think of the green curve as representing the distribution of TS% we should expect from Ariza considering how often he shoots.
-ESPN Houston Rockets Affiliate- Rahat Huq - founder, editor email: rahathuq@red94.net
Given the frequency of his scoring attempts? Yes. If he was just slightly below average efficiency-wise, his scoring rate would be on par with those players. That is he very clearly not in their class as an offensive player should tell us that he is getting way too many shots in our offense.
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