Houston Rockets Trade Possibilities

I am loath to do this.  Trade speculation is the nadir of analysis.  It’s also fun and logic would dictate that the Houston Rockets hope to make a major acquisition before the deadline.

Update at 12:15PM

Last week’s slew of signings pushed the club nose-deep into tax territory, leaving them with $80million of guaranteed salaries.  After awarding 34-year-old backup center Brad Miller almost all of the mid-level, it would be safe to assume they’re going “all in.”

Armed with the sizable expiring contracts of forwards Shane Battier and Jared Jeffries, two attractive New York draft picks, and cheap young talent in the persons of Jordan Hill, Chase Budinger, and Jermaine Taylor, the Rockets would seem to hold the chips to strike a deal.

While a blockbuster would crush flexibility expected next summer and leave the club hopelessly above the tax line for the foreseeable future, I personally believe, given recent developments, these will not be concerns.  Daryl Morey has spoken at length of the need for an elite talent; I’m confident management will not simply opt to let Battier and Jeffries expire.

Trades require planning and more importantly, “the perfect storm.”  Last winter’s blockbuster was only possible because it contained the necessary ingredients.  Houston and Sacramento had established relations.  Kevin Martin was deemed expendable because of the emergence of a cheaper replacement at his position in Tyreke Evans and because of financial problems faced by that organization.  Houston was deemed an acceptable trade partner because they could offer financial relief and a blossoming young talent.

This season, with the aforementioned assets, the Rockets can again offer teams those two conditions.  So whom might they target?  When could they hope to get a deal done?

While Morey probably hopes to strike now–the Knicks picks could lose value with time and a mid-season trade would disrupt chemistry–it’s a safe bet that any deal would be closer to the deadline.  Trading a star now would signal forfeit, hurting gate receipts and acting counterintuitive to the cause.  A team also would not have to pay a full season for dead-weight in Jared Jeffries and cash could be included to help cover the balance.

The Rockets stand in a precarious position.  They’re too good everywhere to make obvious upgrades but have no true elite players.  In fact, it can be argued that only an elite acquisition would serve as an upgrade at one of the spots.

They’re entrenched at the ‘2′ and ‘5.’  You can’t get better than Yao and Martin unless making a deal for a future hall-of-famer.  Having struck out on Bosh, there’s probably no player available in the league better at the ‘4′ than Scola – the Argentinian averaged 22 and 9 upon the trading of his backup.

That leaves the ‘3′ and the ‘1′ open for improvement with possible targets better than what we currently have.

Chris Paul is the only point guard–the league’s best–who could be available and would serve as an upgrade over the Brooks and Lowry tandem.  Could a deal be had?  After some draft day maneuvering, the Hornets squeezed below the tax line and no longer have a pressing need to deal their franchise icon.  Even if they did, would the Rockets bite?  Attaching Emeka Okafor would surely be a requirement for any deal and its doubtful whether the Rockets could swallow such a pill–despite his talents–after having committed $50 million to Scola.  There is also the issue of Adelman’s offense and whether it truly requires a ball-dominating point guard.

Danny Granger has been mentioned but that seems to be a pipe-dream.  After striking a deal with the city, the Pacers are no longer under financial duress, and thus, no longer under pressure to deal their star small forward.

Nuggets star Carmelo Anthony could be on the move after refusing to sign an extension and the Rockets would seem to have a package that could make that work.  But would they be interested?  If Anthony won’t re-sign in Denver, what desire would he have to stay here?  I don’t think that’s a risk worth taking.  Having said that, I wonder–speculating blindly–might Morey hear rumblings of some new stipulation in the upcoming CBA that would make it even more painful for players to leave their current teams (perhaps an even greater difference in annual raises), he could decide to take a chance.  Anthony would give the team a true superstar whose penchant for drawing fouls would fit right in with their philosophy.

Lastly there is Andre Iguodala who the club had desired last year even when needing to swallow the pill that was Samuel Dalembert.  Evan Turner could make him expendable, just as Tyreke Evans did Kevin Martin last year for the Kings, and the Sixers are in a bind to cut losses.  While not a superstar, with his intensity and playing style, Iguodala would fit impeccably with this team’s culture and approach.  But with Kevin Martin now aboard, would the Rockets still consider Iguodala worth the difference between he and Trevor Ariza’s salaries?  The guard is due $16million in 2014, and as one reader noted, has slipped quite noticeably defensively.

Update: A reader, ty185, writes:

assuming the next CBA reduces the CAP by around 10% reduction, that makes the CAP around $52-$53M. A quick glance of the team’s salary situation next summer suggests that only the Cavs and Kings could possibly make a close-to-max FA offer under that figure. Assume we are able to trade for Melo mid-season, is he REALLY going to bolt for either of those team instead of staying?

What’s most frustrating is that the new collective bargaining agreement is central to any trade considerations but so little regarding the negotiations is publically available. We could see some drastic changes to the current structure, all which would dictate the Rockets’ short and long term plans.

Re: Anthony, you would need the Nuggets deciding to not bother with the risk with Morey taking a swing while betting on a lower cap or something else of that nature.  But if there were rumblings about a possible reduction, why wouldn’t the Nuggets just keep Anthony themselves?  They’d need to be in a completely risk-averse state of mind for this to work.

Re: Iguodala, I share the same sentiment as those expressed in the comments.  He doesn’t put us on par with the Lakers, but would make things very interesting.  Still with no elite player, you would just be hoping to overwhelm teams with a balanced Yao-Scola-Iggy-Martin-Brooks attack.  Here’s a question: if he can be had now, do you take the bird in the hand or wait till the Melo/Paul situations have been resolved?

On the new CBA: it’s critical to compile news of any possible stipulations or related rumblings, just for the sake of intelligent discussion.  Going forward, please do pass along, either via email or in the comments, anything of that nature which you may come across which I have not yet made mention of.