A local Houston media personality wrote some years ago, on draft night, after Daryl Morey had come up empty yet again in his quest for a splash, that “flexibility doesn’t win championships”, mocking the Houston GM’s statement that despite the inaction, the team still had flexibility. Such was the sentiment in these parts regarding Houston’s top boss, save for a cadre of few who probably didn’t even go to their Proms.
With last night’s trade, the Rockets set off the first domino in their pursuit of free agents Lebron James and Carmelo Anthony. With the asset they got back, a pick they will acquire if falling between #4 and #19, the Rockets strengthen their war chest in the Kevin Love race. In essence, Houston has options, and Houston has flexibility. There isn’t much mockery any more these days.
When I got home yesterday, I recorded Episode 45 of The Red94 Podcast, shortly after realizing that the clip had been compiled incorrectly. I re-compiled it, re-published it, and sent it back out to iTunes. A few minutes later the Rockets traded Omer Asik, rendering 95% of what I said obsolete.
Asik was one of the soundest financial decisions the Rockets ever made, acquired at $8million annually in a move that at the time, locally, was widely mocked. Sense a theme? The punchline that he had averaged just something like 3 points and 2 rebounds a game was quickly discarded after his productivity skyrocketed with an increased workload. One could have easily made the argument that two seasons ago, Asik’s rim protection was just as important as James Harden’s offense. Statistically speaking, the Turk was at the least the second most valuable player on this team.
Last year, things took a turn for the worse with Asik putting on a shocking display of selfishness of which I would have never imagined he’d be capable. Upon his return from injury, however, and prior to Patrick Beverley’s ailment, I and others thought the team looked the best it had all season.
Now Asik goes to New Orleans where, in pairing with Anthony Davis, he’ll form a frontcourt tandem which alone should propel the Pelicans into the thick of the playoff chase. Good luck trying to score on that team in the paint. That kind of rim protection gives New Orleans all sorts of flexibility with its perimeter defense schemes, so it will be interesting to see how they clean up that mess they have going. While he already repaired much of the damage his reputation had suffered earlier in the year in the playoffs against the Blazers, next season will really put Omer back on the map for a payday. If he stays healthy, no one will blink an eye when he receives the amount of cash Andrew Bogut did last summer.
Asik’s one of the most interesting cases of the Morey era. The definition of an unearthed gem, he epitomizes the enormous chasm between casual and geek fandom. A remark such as the one I made last night that “Asik is a better defender than Dwight Howard at this point, and it’s not really even a question” would be taken as obvious and trite by most serious followers; there is the group who would respond with “lolwut u r kidding me rite??” Asik doesn’t block shots emphatically into the third row.
As of today, June 26 (setting aside the legal trivialities of the deal not yet being complete), the New Orleans Pelicans have a superior frontcourt to the Houston Rockets. While the hope is that that changes in the coming week, the other implication is that the Rockets will likely move the pick they will be getting back as soon as possible. Like the pick received in the Lowry deal, this one too typifies the concept of a speculative instrument. Its value is not intrinsic but rather, goes only as so far as the belief of the purchaser in its worth. If the Pelicans rush out of the gates quickly, the stock in the pick plummets. At present, that pick’s value is highest when deemed with uncertainty.
There is the belief tossed around by some that the deal strengthens Houston’s war chest for a Kevin Love trade. While acquiring an asset of this type certainly makes that true, I don’t think at all that last night’s deal indicates Morey’s target is Love. As it would require giving up even more to get Love, I don’t think Morey would jump prematurely on a deal when he has the opportunity to sign Carmelo Anthony or Lebron James outright. But this flexibility gives Morey options. If he strikes out on the top free agents, and Love is still on the table, with the type of asset he’s just acquired, he can go back to Minnesota with a puncher’s chance.
Make no mistake, this move was a risk, albeit one Houston absolutely had to make. If the Rockets strike out on James and Anthony, and use the reclaimed cap space from this deal to shore up their bench, it is my belief that minus Asik, even with the prospective signees, the Rockets will be an inferior team in 2015. A healthy Asik backing up Howard was this team’s biggest strength, for the short stretch we saw it. But again, unlike a Lin deal, this trade absolutely had to be made. In the case of Lin, Morey will wait until he has a commitment, or at least a strong indication, from one of the two free agents. This is because unlike this Asik trade, dealing Lin would entail a net loss as result of the deal with the Rockets undoubtedly needing to attach a sweetener. Here, they actually got an asset back that, regardless of what happens these next two weeks, can help them going forward.
Three last points:
-What will be the Lin sweetener? Would it be this pick? I asked on Twitter last night whether you would prefer to use this pick as the Lin sweetener or our own #25 along with Motiejunas. I don’t think the #25 alone would be enough. Most of you responded that you’d prefer to give up the #25 and Motiejunas, and I think that is reasonable and also reasonably likely to be the eventual transaction. While in reality, the pick will likely land somewhere in the 15-18 range, its value lies in the speculative chance of high lottery probability. But I’d counter: if Motiejunas were in this draft, would he not be slotted somewhere in the high 20′s? Is, say #20 and #25, worth more than, say, #18? Another twist: While I might be in the minority here, I’d greatly prefer to give up Terrence Jones rather than Motiejunas. I’m not at all a fan of low-IQ basketball players.
-As noted by many last night, the Rockets realized absolute max value from the Asik contract, extracting full worth from the player at his first two seasons’ ~$8million salary, then dealing him just prior to his $15million payout. Houston has really cornered the market on creative financing, in that they only got Asik as a result of the backloading maneuvers, of which they won’t now even have to pay. But they’ll pay the price for such tactics on this Jeremy Lin deal that is about to come up. A sidenote here: Daryl Morey wins again by not dealing Asik last winter.
-Final note: the Asik contract stands as one of the most fascinating moments of the Morey era, not just for its creative construction, but for its representation of the merits of per-minute productivity extrapolation. In the past, value was weighted solely upon the basis of per-game productivity, hence the mockery surrounding the signing. We’re all much smarter now and the critics, for the most part, are under a rock.
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