We learned last night that the Houston Rockets met with Chris Bosh in Dallas and are rumored to have interest in Amare Stoudemire as a fallback (in the event that they lose out on Bosh.)
Update 8:54PM 07/01:
The most comforting development was this tidbit from the Chronicle:
Bosh, however, indicated through third-party intermediaries he “definitely” would consider the Rockets and specifically cited an interest in playing with Yao Ming and the chance to play on “a world stage,” a person with knowledge of his planning said.
indicating that the team will at the least, have something of a chance.
ESPN offered more details on the Rockets’ pitch to Bosh:
The Rockets will also stress that if Bosh joins the Rockets, they’re likely a 60-win team. If he forms a triumvirate with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, the Rockets believe the team won’t have enough supporting talent to support a championship team. The Rockets believe such a pairing would produce a 45-win team.
Morey clearly has to play that angle to give himself a chance but I personally don’t think such a Heat team would fare so poorly. It’s true that they likely would not win the title next year, but their chances would be no less in my opinion than those of a Rockets team with Bosh, just simply due to the natural adjustment/learning process it takes for teams to get over the hump. After that first year, the Heat would have an MLE and another draft pick, which, in combination to having two of the three best players in basketball, you would have to think would give them enough.
And then of course we have the Bulls where, with the existing talent, Bosh and James could step in immediately and win. But naturally, Morey has no choice but to play that angle.
In terms of winning, while I don’t think Houston is the best fit for Bosh, as you all know, I have felt for some time that Bosh is a disgustingly perfect fit for Houston.
Our best chance is if he wants individual glory because, as I explained in the link above, we can build this offense around him, tailored to his talents, and offer him teammates complementary to his needs. No doubt Morey is playing this angle, likely with statistical evidence. Bosh can go to work all night on the right elbow with Aaron Brooks and Kevin Martin locked and loaded for 3′s to keep defenders at bay. He would be something of an afterthought in Miami or Chicago.
While a longshot, Bosh may even be leaning towards the Rockets, only declaring such heavy interest in the Heat and Bulls to gain leverage into forcing a S&T to Houston. We can only speculate for now.
The other news of the night, first broken by a Phoenix local area radio personality via Twitter, was that the Rockets would also inquire about Suns forward Amare Stoudemire. We knew there was interest, so this doesn’t come as too great of a shocker, especially if the team strikes out on Bosh.
The report alleged that the team would offer forwards Luis Scola and Shane Battier – probably stemming from the host’s own confusion and lack of familiarity with Houston’s players. While it’s completely conceivable that Houston would desire Amare, I can’t see Phoenix wasting its time with Battier or Scola, not to mention that Scola would need to agree to the trade. I would think that at least one of the Arizona Wildcats would need to be included. I’m lukewarm on Stoudemire but you could do far worse. At the least, he would give the Rockets possibly the most enviable offensive quartet in the league.
Among other good news: the Hawks appear intent to retain the services of Joe Johnson, offering up the full maximum amount. Great to hear, not just because it keeps him from New York, but because I feared there may have been truth to the report of the Rockets having interest – I greatly prefer Kevin Martin.
The Wolves are after Grizzles forward Rudy Gay. If they get him, the Knicks could be completely shut out of free agency. Best case scenario this summer sees the Rockets landing Bosh without sacrificing either of the Knicks picks. Unlikely, but with Morey, nothing can be ruled out.
Until an actual signing or significant report, all updates and discussion go here.
Update 11:08AM 07/01:
Nothing new since the last update. Nice piece on TrueHoop outlining some of what went on during the meeting between Bosh and Morey. I hope all of this doesn’t drag on too long because the suspense is painful now that it seems we’ve re-emerged in having a chance.
Right now, if all else equal (meaning money), signing in Houston stands as Bosh’s second best chance at winning. His best chance is if he and Lebron join forces in Chicago. Second would have been the ‘dream triumvirate’ in Miami, but its clear that they don’t want to make the financial sacrifices necessary to make that happen. I think Bosh is smart enough to know that Houston, with an entrenched core of Yao, Scola, Ariza, Martin, Brooks, and Lowry offers him a much better chance at winning than Miami with just Wade.
Daryl Morey stressed what he needed to and now we have to wait. The first domino will be Lebron. Interesting that just a few days ago, had you asked me, I would have hoped he bolted to Chicago just for interest’s sake. But now that it appears we may once more have a shot at Bosh, here’s to hoping that Cleveland can lure Lebron back.
Update 11:53AM 07/01:
I’m starting to feel sick just dreaming again how ridiculous this team would be with Bosh. More on that later.
“The agents are focusing on the teams with room. That’s to leverage their original teams so they can go through sign-and-trade where they maximize their money. The free agents will make $30 million more through sign-and-trade.”
We know this is the thinking, but I’m pretty surprised Morey would come out and say this. Doesn’t it hurt their leverage if he comes out and states the plan? Then again, he probably feels its so entrenched in the national conscience that Miami and Chicago are the front-runners that no comment he made would make any difference, making it worthwhile to reassure his own fans. Who knows, but I’m sure he knows what he’s doing.
Back to Bosh: adding him to a healthy Yao with a re-signed Scola gives you the best big-man rotation in basketball, not even mentioning Chuck Hayes and Patrick Patterson. It’s debatable, but I felt at the end of last season that the perimeter trio of Ariza, Martin, and Brooks was the most enviable in the league given their youth, versatility, and complementary skillsets.
Adding Bosh just gives this team a wealth of riches. Longtime readers of Red94 know I’m notoriously conservative but you could almost pencil in such a lineup for 60 wins. Given their ages, the only thing that could get in the way of a long run of dominance (similar to the stretch enjoyed by the Sacramento Kings of last decade) would be Yao’s feet.
You could pound teams inside with Yao and Bosh or win games like last year letting Brooks and Martin bomb away from deep. You could go big and slow it down or slide Bosh to the ’5′ next to Scola and run teams off the court with Brooks and Lowry playing in tandem.
Ok enough of this for now. Too depressing if it doesn’t happen.
Update 1:16PM 07/01:
Couple of points on Amare: First, if we acquired him, considering that his max is $20million (given that a player’s ‘max’ is 105% of his previous salary), there’s no way we would give him the max. Just a technical point, but wanted to clear that up.
Secondly, it should be noted that after the Shaq trade, for the second half of that season, Amare averaged 30ppg. He doesn’t just play well with lane-clogging big men – he seems to play better. I’m sure that has factored into Morey’s analysis driving this pursuit. Amare’s numbers seem to also have rebounded across the board (FG% etc.) from a year ago as he continues to build strength in the leg. Still, like the commenters, I’m weary of Stoudemire – have never liked his attitude or the fact that he’s on par with Mo freaking Taylor (of Krispy Kreme fame) in the rebounding department.
On Darko – I think people are giving Kahn an unfair rap. $5million/year isn’t too outlandish for a skilled 7 footer. Milicic is great for jokes, but he’s actually fairly decent. Don’t let the fact that he was such a colossal bust cloud his real value.
Final note: there’s some serious confusion going around regarding what it might take to land Bosh in a deal. It’s stemming from the wording here:
To land Bosh, the Rockets would have to work a sign-and-trade with the Raptors. The team could offer a players like Jordan Hill, Aaron Brooks and the expiring contracts of Jared Jeffries and David Andersen for Bosh. The also have restricted free agent Luis Scola that they could offer in a sign-and-trade. The Rockets also have the right to swap picks w/Knicks in 2011 and own a protected Knicks pick in 2012. In other words, they have a ton of assets
Ford is just listing what all assets we have available at our disposal; he’s not saying that all of those entities would go in the deal. I think the only sure bet to be included would be Jordan Hill. After that, any combination of assets would be fair game, but I do not think it would take Aaron Brooks.
Update 2:05PM 07/01:
From the ‘why bad teams stay bad’ files: Memphis re-signs guard/forward Rudy Gay to a 5 year, $82million deal. Psuedo-stars are what kill franchises. The Michael Redds, Allan Houstons, Rudy Gays, etc. – the guys who aren’t even All-Stars but command outrageous sums….there needs to be some sort of safeguard against these situations but I don’t know the solution. A team can’t just let its talent get away for nothing, but at the same time, these contracts are suicidal.
Among other news, Lebron James’ itinerary has him scheduled to complete meetings on Saturday. Could we have a decision that early? Will Bosh wait on James’ decision?
This was humorous. Via Mike Wells on Twitter:
The Pacers are wisely on a quest to find a point guard, but Lowry isn’t the kind of pass-first setup man that they need. We think they’d be better off going with Jordan Farmar, even if Farmar is significantly more expensive.
Update 2:23PM 07/01:
A reader, Patrick Lee, quantifies Daryl Morey’s motivations:
i think the pursuit of amare makes sense if you think about morey’s interest in building a super ft team.
check this link:
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/player/_/stat/free-throws/sort/avgFreeThrowsAttemptedkevin martin was basically tied for the second most FTA among SG (after wade and tied with kobe) AND he had a much better FT% than either.
if yao ming were healthy, going by his career average he would have tied for the second most FTA among C (after howard and tied with brook lopez) AND he would have had a better FT% than either.
among PF, bosh had the most FTA (8.4) and shot a good FT% (79.7%). second was amare at 7.7FTA and 77.1 FT%.
so if judging only by this, it kind of makes sense. either one would make us a scary FTA team. we’d have 2 top 10 guys (martin and bosh/amare) and another top 20 guy (yao). only two other teams had even 2 guys in the top 20: denver with melo and billups, and the warriors with maggette and ellis.
Daryl Morey and his staff have identified free throw shooting as one of the key factors having impact upon winning. Essentially, they want guys who will draw fouls at a high rate and then will hit free throws at a high percentage. This has a compounding effect of also putting the team much earlier in the penalty, forcing the opponent to readjust its strategy.
It’s basketball’s equivalent to loading up on guys who draw a ton of walks.
Update 2:41PM 07/01:
A reader, DowJones, writes:
On a separate note, Rahat, I would be very interested to see your opinion on the Battier-Gay trade, I find your assertion that this was a Dawkins move quite intriguing.
My theory for some time now, in retrospect, has been that while it was Morey-inspired, it was Dawson who coordinated the move. The first part, that it was Morey-inspired, is pretty obvious – no one else valued Shane and we know now why Morey did. However, I’ve felt that it was Dawson who coordinated the trade itself for a few reasons. 1) in terms of value, it was pretty close to an even swap. We know that Morey valued Battier highly, but his market value was actually much lower. Since Morey took over, we’ve never seen him make deals that were even swaps in terms of market value. Had he negotiated the Gay trade, I think we would have come out with something more, perhaps the #24 pick in addition to Battier. Even value-swapping was pretty much a core characteristic of every Carrol Dawson trade. 2) more pointedly, Morey was just an assistant at that point, recently hired. Draft day is the most important night of the year. It’s unlikely that Dawson would have allowed his apprentice to coordinate the biggest trade of the year.
My theory is that Morey identified Battier and then presented his data to Dawson. Dawson then put in the call to Jerry West and put the deal together.
Update 3:52PM 07/01:
From Chad Ford:
According to the source, the Blazers got close to a deal with the Hornets last week that would’ve sent Andre Miller, Joel Przybilla, Nicolas Batum, Jerryd Bayless and the 22nd pick to New Orelans for Paul and Emeka Okafor before Hornets GM Jeff Bower pulled out of the deal claiming that their owner wasn’t ready to trade Paul.
If that’s all it takes to land one of the five best players in basketball, then I don’t know what to say. Nicolas Batum has now reached unprecedented levels of overratedness.
Update 4:29PM 07/01:
More on the curious case of Nicolas Batum: He’s by far the most overrated player in basketball right now. Nothing I’ve seen from him even remotely justifies his purported ‘trade value’ or the hyperbole used in assessing his potential. Good athleticism, good size, but apart from that, nothing extraordinary. Certainly doesn’t have anywhere near the ball-handling abilities that would indicate any-type of significant upside. He’s Ariza without the sense of entitlement. A dime a dozen wing.
I think it’s brilliant actually how the Blazers have managed to inflate this kid’s value to the levels its reached. Every month or so, a rumor is leaked of the Blazers balking at some deal that would have sent some superstar to Portland for a package centered around Batum. Just last week it was the Blazers turning down the #4 pick. Absolutely hilarious yet so wittingly brilliant on the part of Portland’s brass. The sad thing is that its reached the point now where the public actually takes this stuff at face value and now buys into the Batum hype. Unfortunate.
Update 8:54PM 07/01:
Foxsports.com reports that the Lakers have offered Mike Miller a 5 year $30million deal. Now that would be a great pickup for the defending champs. Miller would give them the size that Phil Jackson likes on the perimeter (Ron Harper, Brian Shaw) and the shooting they could have sorely used against Phoenix. He’s not a good defender but that’s not really too important with a strong system and trees protecting the basket. Forget McGrady, if the Lakers land Mike Miller, they are going to be even tougher.
