On the draft and the #2 pick

I certainly agreee expiring contracts are highly overrated.
But even if there is a grace clause exempting portions of pre-existing contracts from lower Tax threshhold or hard cap,there still will be incentive to move a player w/2+ yrs on his deal for a player who's contract expires at end of season.

My guts tell me that the Rockets are targeting Cousins if they obtain one of the top 3 draft picks. However, with that said, I believe that Evan Turner will be a Brandon Roy clone (albeit with more limited shooting range) and he fits in with the current makeup of the team much better. I do not think that his athleticism or lack thereof will limit him too much. His game is very fundamentally sound and above all, he is a playmaker.
1). Evan Turner, like Roy, stayed in school after their freshman seasons so I foresee him having instant impact.
2). Evan has great feel for the game and he is a playmaker. In a lineup that features gunners like Brooks and Ariza, Evan is a much better fit than Kevin Martin. Evan will be a great facilitator in the Adelman free flowing offense where Martin is more inclined to shoot rather than distribute. I am not knocking Martin down, he draws fouls like few others and scores like a machine, but I see Evan Turner as the better fit.
3). Although Kevin Martin had a tremendous offensive effective on the game, he is a liability against bigger and stronger guards on defense. Evan Turner has the size and weight to be a factor in the quick but thin trio of brooks-martin- ariza.
In the end, it all comes down if Evan Turner is worth the $18M plus that Elton Brand is getting in the last year of his contract. I think Rahat said it before that the opportunity of getting a superstar is very limited in this league. I consider Martin and Brooks to be stars, maybe even all-stars but Evan Turner will join Brandon Roy in the superstar category so yes he is worth swallowing the bitter pill that is Elton Brand's contract

Agreed. If he is Brandon Roy, I think you do it.

But I would be careful on the "Brand as an expiring angle" - Larry Coon has hinted that expiring contracts may not have as much value as there are rumors of the new CBA having some sort of grace clause.

Cousins may well be extremely talented but he has some personality issues and a huge red flag in over 16% body fat after getting into the "best shape" of his life.

At #2,assuming no miracle and Walls not going first,Turner would be the Rockets choice.
Playmaking SG/SF who is a pretty good defender,has the desire both to win and improve and is a pretty decent scorer. At 6'6" the Rockets would rather have a taller SG than a shorter SF,which makes Martin's roster spot uncertain.
The essentials of such a trade would prob be Martin,Andersen,cash,perhaps the #12 for the #2 and Brand.
Philly saves several million a yr and gets a scoring machine,and unloads Brand.
Houston gets their SG for the next decade and has to carry Brand for at least 2 yrs and Brand plus Turner would cost several mil a yr more than Martin and the #12.

If the Rockets feel Turner will be a better passing and defending,slightly less athletic Brandon Roy,then taking Brand is worth it. Otherwise,no.
If Brand would accept being the hub of the second unit(which he didn't in Philly),there are some positives to him. A second unit of Lowry,Bud,Battier/Taylor,Brand and Hill is pretty darn good on paper. and if as likely there will be a lockout next yr,there's a chunk of his salary that won't have to be paid. The following yr he becomes the "Elton Brand Expiring Contract" just as the new CBA kicks in and some teams will prob be desperate to reduce long-term payroll.
Me,I would hesitantly do it,the only concern being Brand turning cancerous.

on paper

On second thought, the Rockets might want to at least take a look at this. Brand showed signs of life this year and provided similar production to Scola (worse offense, better defense), and might just continue to improve as his achilles gets better. And the deal would also depend on what else the 76ers wanted. If they wanted 2 first rounders, no way. If they wanted Battier and Jeffries, you at least have to listen.

http://www.sbnation.com/2010/5/23/1483227/2010-...

There's lots of opinions and going to be lots of opinion about lottery players. Look at last year, Thabeet was supposed to be a no-brainer. Evans and Curry were the two rookies that stood out at the end. Look at Gortat, the back-up center Rockets made a big play for. None of these players, if obtained by the Rockets, would have changed the Rockets record much. In fact the Rockets benefited as much as possible from the development of Evans by getting Martin on the 'cheap.' Looking at the lottery picks from the draft last year you'll see many more busts than success stories.

Morey gets into the middle of trades and it's not a bad idea because the funny thing about trades is that the more teams you get involved in trading, the easier (and more likely) you'll end up with pieces you want. Whoever gets Bosh or James, though via a sign-and-trade, will pay through the nose in talent (and then in money) because of the competition in bidding. I think Morey threw this out there not because he thinks he can (or want?) to get Bosh in a sign-and-trade, but he wants to make sure the teams that gets him in a s&t won't be competitive for years to come. A big-ticketed free-agent

When a S&T is taking place, or trading for #2 pick, there's bound to be pieces that no-one wants but has to be part of the trade. This is where Morey shines. Morey is smart and he ought to be smart enough to know that he's not that good that he's able to spot a Superstar in the lottery. (like Hill for San Antonio this past year). There's maybe 1-2 Superstars per year. The downside in not finding that superstar with the number 2 pick would be horrible. Look what happened to Portland with the last Center they drafted with #1!

I don't know how to put together a good team but no move the Rockets make in the off-season will be as big as getting Yao Ming back and playing 30 minutes a night. Morey would do well to count on the development of the cast he already has (#8 pick from last year plus Budinger & Taylor) with Yao returning, healthy, this could be a formidable team.

This wasn't an actual rumor, just message board theorycrafting. It was also actually a complex three team trade. As for why Houston would be involved, I guess I can't answer that for the same reason I can't answer why Sacramento wasn't able to extract a deal from the Knicks for McGrady after acquiring him from us (that was the original trade, was it not?). All I know is that Morey seems fairly adept at the finer points of negotiation and has a knack for making himself integral to the execution of trades.

Brand stays hurt, so with all the injuries to Yao and McGrady , why would we add him. Scola is more dependable and a better player then Brand at this point of there careers. Turner wont bring us a championship next year.

Interesting take. I agree on the so-called "big swing"...Martin was a blockbuster, but was still a "perfect deal"; we have yet to see Morey take that "big swing" where significant risk is involved (absorption of long-term chaffe.)

So I think yes, if they did a deal like this, I would be salivating to get a glimpse at the target of the deal picked at #2.

Why wouldn't Minnesota directly offer Philadelphia Rubio + their #4? (Especially if they want a player *now*, for the coming season, instead of 2011.) I don't see where we enter the equation unless there's something PHI wants from us. And would we really want Rubio? He seems like a bankable talent, but not an outsize superstar playing with a value beyond the limits of his capped salary, considering his price would be Brand's contract + Rubio's contract. No sale.

True franchise players are almost always drafted. It's still a crapshoot, but that's an unavoidable facet of the draft. The risk/reward variance is HUGE. Landing a player like that for absorbing Brand would still be worthwhile, but you lose the hedge from only owing a rookie scale contract. The value from pursuing a high pick via trade diminishes when the salary at stake is so high -- think of future trades, etc. We'd be in a really deep hole.

I think the most important metrics are: 1) how consistently, and at what level would a player like Cousins (or Other Secret Prospect) transition from college to the NBA, 2) those odds weighed against other possible deals still being negotiated or contemplated, and 3) whether the math works out in favor of the trade. Prudence demands that we eke out marginal advantages at every opportunity, and only take a big swing when the odds are stacked in our favor.

But, if Morey announces that we're picking up Brand + the #2, I would immediately become very interested in the player we draft. I believe in Daryl Morey as much as the next Houston fan, but I personally feel like this is not the best course of action. Also, the most obvious/expected trades have almost never been the ones that Morey pursues... at least not exactly. I hope to see another big, perfect deal from out of left field.

I think one of the commenters posted an article here where Hollinger ranked Cousins as one of the top prospects ever, highest in the draft.

Hypothetical: let's say morey feels cousins has "that" kind of potential...(which I think is entirely possible considering portland of all people is also trying to move up, surprise surprise)...the $20million bullet is worth it in that case isn't it?

You don't really get many shots to acquire superstar talents. So if he's identified, don't you have to bite that bullet? I don't know.

We've seen, and you've pointed out that Morey is willing to "bite the bullet" on an albatross contract to get an asset. In Brand's case, I think that is too great a risk to get the second pick. Evan Turner is a great player, but his lack of explosive athletecism will keep him from being a transcendent superstar.

Trading for the 2nd pick of the draft now is to buy high. Can't buy high and sell low like Knicks (Jordan Hill). The only way for the 2nd pick to make sense is to find a guy like Durant, Bryant, if you know how to identify them. Last I checked, NBA draft is still a crap-shoot. It would make more sense to trade down, pick up a few more second round picks at better value for trade later-on. Gotta get value. High draft pick is not value.

i forget who, but someone on clutchfans suggested taking the 2 pick and brand, then trading away the 2 pick to minnesota (theyre high on turner apparently) for rights to rubio and the 4 pick. it was actually more complicated than that, but you get the general idea.

I think the price is considerable, if for no other reason than it would make the team less likely to retain Scola. Once you commit 16 mil to a PF, do you really want to add 8 mil more?

If they were to bite the bullet, I'd have to know what assets would remain. Could they move for the #2, flip it for Cousins and Rubio, and still hang on to Jordan Hill?

Would gaining Evan Turner endanger Martin?

All of those questions aside, it may be time for Rockets fans to realize that we have a far greater likelihood of adding talent at the draft than in free agency, when so many other teams will be jockeying for position.

My sense is the price is too high. The draft is indeed a path to greatness, but only if you make the right pick, and there is a lot of inherent risk with injury, team chemistry, etc. The Rocket's would have to be absolutely convinced that whoever they draft at #2 would not only be an immediate contributor, but more or less a star in their rookie season, and that's a hard thing to achieve. I like Cousins, but if Cousins turns out to be, say, another Bynum or Oden, the Rockets would be in bad shape for years to come.

I think it would obviously be dependent on the terms of the deal, and the inclinations of Chris Bosh. If Bosh indeed is not considering Houston, then you definitely have to take a hard look at it.

I think Cousins or Favors both have ceilings that would warrant it. I'm not as sold on Turner, but then again I don't watch college BB.

You also have to consider how Brand would feel about being a bench player. Because going forward, I think thats eventually what he will be.

51 million dollars is alot to take back for the 2nd pick....I mean, you trade Battier/Jefferies and you dont add all 51 million, but still its too much. I dont think Evan Turner is worth 20 million a year (add Brand and #2 pick salary). For certain players it would be (LeBron/Wade/etc.) but not Evan Turner or Cousins.