Update: Added minutes played and per-minute scoring stats at the end of the post.
During the Lakers-Cavs Christmas Day game, Mike Breen asked his broadcasting partners to comment on how underrated Andersen Varaejo has been as a 6th-man of the year candidate. Jeff Van Gundy, as usual in the Houston Rockets’ corner, used the opportunity to speak up about the amazing year Carl Landry has been having off the Rockets bench. According to him, Landry has been the league’s best reserve so far, and it isn’t close. Such a claim may have come as a surprise to a large portion of the audience who haven’t seen the Rockets play due to their absence on the national television stage. Rockets fans know Landry has been really good, but even they may not fully appreciate how effective he’s been. Allow me to put it more concretely. So far this season (up through 12/24, that is), 136 players have played at least 10 minutes in at least 10 games coming off the bench. Amongst this pool of players, Landry ranks 1st in points scored per minute and 1st in TS% (points scored per shot attempt, including free throws). Moreover, he ranks 1st in PER (a per-minute, pace-adjusted player rating based on the boxscore) and 1st in Win Shares (total contribution towards a team’s wins, based on the boxscore). The chart below illustrates his dominance amongst reserves by these metrics, and I’ve highlighted the other 6th-man of the year candidates mentioned in the most recent ESPN.com Awards Watch (and Kyle Lowry also, who’s worthy of being in the discussion).Win Shares, PER Scatter Plot. Landry dominates both per-minute and in total contribution, by the boxscore.
That, I think, makes for a pretty good case in support of Jeff Van Gundy’s contention. But I would like to make still one more point. Would you believe that, for games through 12/24, Carl Landry leads the league in 4th quarter scoring? Here are the top 20 players so far this season in points scored per game in the 4th quarter:
rnk Player TS% pts/4th 1 Carl Landry 69.7% 6.8 2 Carmelo Anthony 60.8% 6.6 3 J.R. Smith 58.7% 6.4 4 Dwyane Wade 56.9% 6.3 5 Brandon Roy 57.8% 6.1 6 Dirk Nowitzki 54.8% 6.0 7 LeBron James 55.2% 6.0 8 Jason Terry 61.5% 6.0 9 Danny Granger 55.1% 5.8 10 Kevin Durant 52.8% 5.8 11 Brandon Jennings 52.1% 5.7 12 Kobe Bryant 55.7% 5.5 13 Monta Ellis 58.1% 5.5 14 Will Bynum 53.9% 5.3 15 Earl Boykins 69.3% 5.3 16 Russell Westbrook 56.7% 5.0 17 Tyreke Evans 50.5% 4.9 18 Al Harrington 59.9% 4.8 19 Chris Paul 60.0% 4.8 20 Mo Williams 54.7% 4.8
Notice also that Landry not only tops this list in 4th quarter scoring, he’s also been the most efficient scorer amongst the top 20. And its not as if the Rockets have played a ton of blowouts and Landry has just been padding his stats in garbage time. In the second half, when the Rockets need buckets, Carl Landry has been their goto player. Below, I show another scatter plot, indicating both points scored and efficiency, for the top 100 players in 4th quarter scoring. I’ve grayed out players who have started at least 40% of their games so as to highlight the reserves. I’ve also adjusted the label size based on total minutes played to focus on the “important” players for our consideration.
4th Quarter Scoring — Landry stands out as a 4th quarter scorer, whether amongst reserves or the entire league.
What’s interesting is that not only does Landry’s fourth quarter proficiency set him apart from other players, he’s the only “big” who operates primarily in the post who is even close to the top as a top 4th quarter scorer. What makes him so good? Landry possesses elite quickness when operating in the post or facing up, and he makes up for his relatively short stature by having incredible strength and coordination in the air. He has also expanded his post moves to include an accurate jump hook or fallaway in the lane. Perhaps most importantly, Landry has become a dead-eye free throw shooter. With Yao, the Rockets had a big man who they could depend on to shoot 85% from the line. Its quite a luxury to have an option in the post who’s both adept at drawing fouls and will convert at a high percentage, and Landry has continued the tradition in Yao’s absence.
Update Upon reading the 4th quarter scoring stats above, readers may have been surprised to see players such as Kobe Bryant falling outside the top 10. While I do believe, for this discussion, minutes played in the 4th quarter is relevant, a more accurate portrayal of the best 4th quarter scorers would be to look at it per-minute. I’ve updated the table above to show 4th quarter minutes played per game and also scoring per 36-minutes.rnk Player 4th_min pts/36min TS% pts/4th 1 Carl Landry 9.9 24.7 69.7% 6.8 2 Carmelo Anthony 7.5 31.6 60.8% 6.6 3 J.R. Smith 9.5 24.0 58.7% 6.4 4 Dwyane Wade 7.7 29.6 56.9% 6.3 5 Brandon Roy 8.4 26.1 57.8% 6.1 6 Dirk Nowitzki 8.4 26.0 54.8% 6.0 7 LeBron James 7.3 29.7 55.2% 6.0 8 Jason Terry 10.4 20.8 61.5% 6.0 9 Danny Granger 8.8 23.7 55.1% 5.8 10 Kevin Durant 8.8 23.4 52.8% 5.8 11 Brandon Jennings 8.4 24.6 52.1% 5.7 12 Kobe Bryant 6.2 31.8 55.7% 5.5 13 Monta Ellis 8.1 24.2 58.1% 5.5 14 Will Bynum 9.5 20.0 53.9% 5.3 15 Earl Boykins 8.6 21.9 69.3% 5.3 16 Russell Westbrook 7.5 23.8 56.7% 5.0 17 Tyreke Evans 8.2 21.4 50.5% 4.9 18 Al Harrington 8.5 20.4 59.9% 4.8 19 Chris Paul 6.8 25.5 60.0% 4.8 20 Mo Williams 9.2 18.7 54.7% 4.8
And below I’ve included another scatter plot, this time showing top 100 players in 4th quarter scoring per 36 minutes.
Fourth Quarter Scoring Per 36 minute; Landry still excels.
