For NBA fans all across the country, this summer—a two to three month period that normally sprints forward like a roller coaster’s free fall—has felt really, really long. Not to make matters worse, but if no progress is made at the NBA’s next Board of Governors meeting, reportedly slated for September 15, the immediate months ahead figure to resemble a sloth making his molasses sandwich; the situation is stagnant, boring, and beyond the point where words like frustration are able to describe the collective feeling.
The article you’re about to read is my brazen attempt at turning things around—at least while you’re engrossed for the next five minutes. Much like the labor negotiations this is more bullet pointed occurrences than neatly formed narrative. I’ll be taking a look at some interesting team stats that the Houston Rockets put together last season, and analyzing them in an attempt to see what we’ll have moving forward, in a hypothetically complete 2011-12 regular season. All stats are supplied by some usual invaluable NBA resources: Basketball-Reference, 82 games, Hoopdata, and Basketball Value. Some of this you may already know, and some may be new. Regardless, here’s to hoping these five arbitrary facts temporarily turn your frown into a creased brow.
1) Probably the most important intangible people bring up when discussing successful basketball teams—apart from talent—is chemistry. Do the five teammates on the court know each other’s natural instincts? Is Player A aware Player C likes the ball when he’s trailing on the left wing and isn’t as comfortable getting fed on the right? Do player’s D and E know the precise moment to help and switch after Player B is beat off the dribble?
Last season the Rockets produced 14 different starting lineups in 82 games. They didn’t make the playoffs, and all that turnover might be a good reason why. The Los Angeles Lakers, one of the more consistent “good” teams in basketball produced just two starting lineups last season. Their consistency shows two things: They didn’t have many injuries, and their best players weren’t screwing up alongside one another.
So there you have it. Whoever throws the same five guys on the court the most times wins the championship. Done and d…wait a minute. It looks like the Miami Heat had 14 different starting lineups last year—same as Houston! Hold up, this can’t be right. According to official documentation, the Dallas Mavericks, hoister of the 2011 Larry O’Brien Trophy, had a whopping 22 different combinations. Talk about skewing the numbers; that’s what you call dropping atom bombs on a theory.
2) Rockets offensive rating leapt from 16th in 2009-10 to fourth in 2010-11. Points per game also took a noticeable step up, from eighth to third.
Several things were in play here: Their point guard became more efficient and consistent (because it was a different person), and their midseason transactions favoring youth made them a faster and more dynamic. Throw in a healthy Kevin Martin teetering on his induction into the Underrated Hall of Fame and a more-than-steady Luis Scola, and what you have is a balanced, relentless offensive attack. The roster was flooded with unselfish guys who know how to score, a scary combination and one that should only evolve for the better as the guys grow and gel together in the coming season or two.
Points per game is hardly a valued metric in judging who has the most potent offense, but making their mark at fourth in offensive rating is a truer and more valid statement. When Houston is viewed through a national prism most everyone doesn’t see them as a run and gun carefree offense, which makes their points per 100 possession numbers all the more impressive. With no All-Stars on the team last season, the Rockets showed their offense is a serious beast to reckon with.
3) The Rockets were 17-8 after the All-Star break. This you probably already knew. And if you didn’t then you probably don’t care. What you might find interesting, however, is the records both Dallas and Miami shared during that same post-All-Star break time frame: 17-9.
4) Houston’s lineup of Kyle Lowry, Kevin Martin, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, and Chuck Hayes scored the second most points of any five man group in the entire league, behind only the Laker’s Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, and Ron Artest.
This tidbit is like a bad Wednesday Night Dollar Beer Trivia Question. It might be had on someone’s 3457273 guess, but by then the game’s ended and all the lights have gone dim over the bar. Seriously, how is this true? How does a lineup with Shane Battier and Chuck Hayes score more than ANY with LeBron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwyane Wade? Best not to think about it.
5) The team ranks in the top 10 (on the offensive end) in all of the major four factors (TOV% 2nd , ORB% 10th, eFG% 10th, FT/FGA 6th)
Apart from final score these four statistics are widely accepted as being the most vital in deciding who wins and loses the most basketball games over an extended stretch of time. To rank in the top 10 in all four is obviously a good thing, and a proven recipe for creating a winning brand, but in the end there’s only so far these statistics can take you when that unquestioned superstar is missing. The Dallas Mavericks ranked in the bottom half of the entire league for three of the four stats (they were third in eFG%) but they have Dirk Nowitzki. Numbers on a computer mean very little when you have a player good enough to create his own orbit.
Also, keep in mind that this is strictly on the offensive end. Keeping your opponents four factors at poor rates is equally, if not more, important, but the team’s offensive efficiency is there, which is something to build on.
Bonus: Aaron Brooks had a plus/minus of -106. Kyle Lowry was +312. If simple physics allowed it, Jonny Flynn would be a +∞ next season. I’m sure of it.
Follow Michael Pina on Twitter @ShakyAnkles
