This post is the latest in a series entitled ‘Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry.’ All previous and future installments can be found via the ‘Dragic vs. Lowry’ tag below.’
This year, in 16 games started, Goran Dragic has averaged 17.6 points and 8.7 assists in 36.6 minutes. He has shot 53% from the field and 44% from downtown. In the 38 games this year in which he came off the bench, Dragic shot 42% overall from the field and 26% on 3′s.
Overall in his career, Dragic has now started 24 games, averaging 15.8 points and 8.1 assists in 36.7 minutes played. He’s shot 51% overall and 41% on 3′s in these games. In the 235 games in his career in which he has come off the bench, Dragic has shot 43% overall and 36% on 3′s. These career starting numbers are obviously inflated by the 16 games this season. Let’s break things down further.
In his rookie season, 2008-2009, Dragic started one game. In that game, he played 30 minutes, scored 5 points, dished 4 assists and shot 29% (2/7) overall. He missed both of his 3 point attempts. In his 54 games as a reserve that season, Dragic shot 40% overall and 39% from ’3′.
In 2009-2010, Dragic started 2 games. In those games, he averaged 12.5 points and 6 assists, shooting 56% overall and 50% on 3′s. In his 78 games as a reserve that year, Dragic shot 45% overall and 39% on 3′s.
In 2010-2011, Dragic started 5 games and came off the bench in 65. In the starts, he averaged 13.4 points and 7.8 assists in 40.3 minutes, shooting 42% overall and 33% on 3′s. In his appearances as a reserve, he shot 44% overall and 37% on 3′s.
Discussion:
It’s no secret that Dragic’s numbers as a starter, this season, have been off the charts. He also fared extremely well in the two or three games he started for the Rockets last year. (I can’t seem to find those numbers.) I wanted to look back at his numbers in each individual season of his career to see if there was a trend. Perhaps he’s just better suited as a starter?
As expected, these rudimentary numbers don’t tell us much of anything. He fared well in the 2 starts of his sophomore year, but that’s far too small a sample size to prove confirmatory. He was awful as a rookie but….was a rookie. He was pretty much consistent overall last season (in his games as a Sun.)
Why is all of this important? To determine, or predict, whether this season will be the norm, we need to understand whether some part of ‘starting’ suits Dragic better, improving his play. That will help us understand if this year’s production is a fluke. Obviously, if it’s a fluke, and not close to the norm, it would not be a wise decision to trade Kyle Lowry.
Many NBA players play better off the bench. In shorter minutes, they can expend more energy and produce more for their team. The opposite effect is taking place with Dragic. I noted last season that while intense, he often seemed completely out of control. Now as a starter, as he said, he’s been able to calm down and pace himself. This has seemingly affected his shooting.
If we want to be thorough, we should also explore Dragic’s respective turnover percentages. That examination will come in a later installment.
We could also break things down even further by number of minutes played. How did Dragic play in games when, while coming off the bench, he played for 30+ minutes? How did he play in games when he played 20+ minutes? I can assure you that the Rockets have probably run that analysis. How much would it tell us? I’m not sure. Is the impact on shooting the number of minutes or the a priori knowledge that one will play major minutes in that game (ie: starting.)? I think it’s the latter.