Goran Dragic vs. Kyle Lowry: Surveying the field

Much was made late in the year of the Portland Trail Blazers’ alleged interest in Goran Dragic.  For more insight, I reached out to Ben Golliver, contributor to CBSSports.com’s Eye on Basketball NBA Blog and author of Blazersedge.

Huq: Can you confirm the rumblings that Portland will make Goran Dragic their top priority this summer?  Is that what you’ve also heard?

Golliver: Blazers Acting GM Chad Buchanan has repeatedly stated that the starting point guard position is the team’s No.1 priority. All indications are that after a truly awful season incumbent Raymond Felton won’t be anything but an absolute last, last, last resort to fill that role, if that. Heading into a rebuilding cycle, Dragic would fit Portland’s plans better than a number of the free agents that are coming available this summer because of his age and his proven skill level. You can find the logic behind Portland’s interest by simple process of elimination. He’s not too old (Nash, he’s not a retread (Miller), he’s not a 2 trying to play 1 (Bayless), he’s not a midget (Augustin), he’s not totally out of their league (Williams), he’s not a Felton clone (Nelson). Dragic has stated he wants his own team, Portland has been desperately searching for someone capable of handling that role on a long-term basis for years, he’s unrestricted and Portland has substantial cap space.

The only caveat is that this all is acting under the current operating protocol which could change at any moment. A new GM would potentially bring a new philosophy.

Huq: How much are the Blazers expected to have under the cap?

Golliver: At this point they are only expected to have two contracts that aren’t minimum or rookie deals on the books for next year: LaMarcus Aldridge and Wesley Matthews (totaling $20.5 million). They’ll need to re-sign or match on Nicolas Batum and make a decision on J.J. Hickson. Various estimates have put them in the $15-$20 million range which we all know can change quickly. Buchanan has said the team’s goal is to add veteran pieces at the point guard and center positions using that space (via trade or outright signings) before going above the cap line to sign Batum. Whether they are able to accomplish that or not (or whether they are bluffing to appease fans and will actually proceed with a draft-oriented youth movement), who knows. But that’s the stated plan.

Huq: Do you think management would be open to trading for Kyle Lowry instead?  What would they be willing to offer?

Golliver: There’s only one reason I can see Portland not having interest in Lowry: his no contest plea to the incident in Las Vegas. This organization holds an incredibly high character standard for its players and views them as community ambassadors. I’m not sure that’s a serious enough red flag to prevent interest but that’s the lens they have operated through for years now.

As a player, though, Lowry would be very intriguing of course. To provide context, you have to realize what Portland just went through during the Raymond Felton Era. He showed up out of shape, melted down in fourth quarters time and again, called out his coach publicly, invited fans and critics to his home (broadcasting the name of the condo in which he lived) for a personal confrontation, put up the worst shooting numbers of his career (which got inflated a little during meaningless end of season games) and turned the ball over like crazy. Competency would be a luxury compared to Felton so of course Lowry’s skill level and reasonable contract would be very attractive to a team in this situation. Remember also that Portland does not have another option at point guard right now. Rookie guard Nolan Smith didn’t particularly look like an NBA player this season and he’s almost 24 years old. Whoever is brought in as the starter will be asked to play heavy minutes.

In terms of trades for Lowry, I’m not sure I see an obvious package. Portland is asset-deficient after executing a number of 3-for-1 or 2-1 deals over the previous couple of years and the younger guys have yet to break out and/or stay healthy. Portland’s best trade assets currently are its two lottery picks (assuming New Jersey’s transfers per the top-3 protection this season) and they’ve made it clear those picks are very available. Aldridge and Batum are guys they want long-term. Matthews is not untouchable but I doubt he would be of much interest. Portland would have trouble parting with him, anyway, because of the anticipated departure of Jamal Crawford and the health problems to Elliot Williams. I think to boil this down: unless Houston really wants a lottery pick this year there’s not a great deal to be found.

Huq: If the Magic do indeed deal Dwight Howard, would the Blazers be open to trading Aldridge for him or is that too great of a risk (without an extension)? Would they be able to manuever far enough beneath the cap to trade for Howard and also sign Deron Williams?

Golliver: I don’t foresee any situation in which Dwight Howard has interest in playing for Portland. I also don’t foresee any situation in which Deron Williams has interest in playing for Portland. That’s the major factor in almost all superstar moves these days unless a genius like Kevin O’Connor is involved. I don’t see that type of executive in either New Jersey or Orlando.

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About the author: Rahat Huq is a lawyer in real life and the founder and editor-in-chief of www.Red94.net.

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