33 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: For Rockets, trading for Josh Smith might make sense

[timetodienow1234567]

We wouldn't trade for Josh Smith just to let him go. If we went after Josh Smith, it would be to lure Dwight with the promise of playing alongside Josh Smith. According to reports, I've read, they're really close friends. We would have to give up Asik in a sign and trade with the Lakers along with a few other pieces to get Dwight, but we could do it. Our starting 5 would be Lin/Harden/Parsons/Smith/Howard. I understand your thinking, but I don't think Dwight comes unless we have Josh Smith agreeing to sign long term. A trio of Harden/Smith/Howard would entice him.

[Rahat Huq]

To be able to have the money to absorb Howard, the Rockets would have to renounce Smith's rights, clearing his cap hold. They'd then lose his bird rights. So after signing and trading for Howard, they wouldn't have enough money left over to sign Smith.

If I'm not mistaken.

[timetodienow1234567]

Asik/Delfino/Ppat/Morris should be enough to get Dwight if he takes a slight pay cut like the Heat trio did. I might be wrong, but our 2 big player contracts are Harden/Lin. We can go over the cap to re-sign a player can't we? So we could theoretically go over the cap to re-sgin Josh Smith? I'm not too familiar with the CBA.

[Steven]

Asik/Delfino/Ppat/Morris should be enough to get Dwight if he takes a slight pay cut like the Heat trio did. I might be wrong, but our 2 big player contracts are Harden/Lin. We can go over the cap to re-sign a player can't we? So we could theoretically go over the cap to re-sgin Josh Smith? I'm not too familiar with the CBA.

Howard is not the Heat trio. The money matters to him. It might be too hard for him to turn down the extra $30M the Lakers are going to be able to offer him.

You can go over the salary cap to sign your own players as long as you control their "bird rights". You have to be under the cap to sign free agents, unless you are offering the mid-level exception or the veterans minimum.

[thejohnnygold]

I just don't think the Hawks want our scraps for Smith. In dealing Smith they lose the one ace in the hole they have to try and lure Dwight their way. As Huq points out, that has a lot of value. Unless we throw all our best prospects in the pot--D-Mo included--I cannot envision the Hawks taking a combination of Delfino, Aldrich, Douglas, Morris, Smith, Jones. They already have our draft picks.

If I understand correctly, the idea is to "rent" Smith to try and get past one of the West's top 4 and prove to Dwight we are a desirable team. Smith won't be here with Dwight should he choose Houston. Am I the only one that thinks this is weird? Ultimately, we give up assets and depth for a chance to show off and pursue Dwight...who is already leaning this way in my estimation. We become a less desirable destination in our desperation to be desirable. I think trading for Smith is counter-intuitive. I say bring Dwight in, let Smith see what he could be a part of and see if he still wants that max deal. Having Dwight recruit Smith makes more sense. Suddenly, we are the Heat of the West with a group of players agreeing to take less money with the goal of championships. I would rather have Horford than Smith if we're going after an Atlanta player. He can be our answer at the 4.

It wasn't long ago it was decided that Parsons is actually a similar player--statistics-wise--and is still growing into the NBA. Parsons is a better glue/chemistry guy and doesn't want/need a max deal. I always respect your opinions, Rahat, but I think this is a bad, bad plan of action.

[thejohnnygold]

Regarding money, haven't these guys figured out that winning begets more money yet? Play-off games get you more money. Winning play-off games and getting to the finals gets you more endorsements. Winning championships sets you up for life. Surely someone is telling them this if they can't see it for themselves. $30 million dollars is nothing next to the riches of a dynasty....you can take that to the bank! (pun intended)

[rockets best fan]

terrible outcome for the rockets. 1st smith might be worth chasing at the end of the year, but to give away assets for him is stupid. what if we give away our assets and neither smith nor howard sign? we will have traded pieces that could help us and got nothing for them. that's not good team building. 2nd even if we have smith beating OKC, the clippers or the spurs is still a long shot at best. 3rd smith wants max money which will kill our cap space and he is not........NOT a top 15 player in the league. to wrap up trading for smith is like selling your soul for a jelly roll . we are better off without smith if it means giving up tradable assets. some seem to think so little of t jones, but remember what you thought about mm last year? now he's a contributor to what we are doing this year. the grass always looks greener in the neighbors yard. some seem to forget that smith comes with his own set of problems. sorry rahut but 10% better chance to sign howard is not enough to let jones go (IMO)

[Rahat Huq]

I think that at times we tend to overvalue our young players. Look at how we all felt about Greg Smith just a few months ago.

[rockets best fan]

I still like g smith and have not given up on him. considering what we pay him he is still a nice player to continue developing. j smith will not be a cure all for us. whether we get him or not we will still find ourselfs at home at the end of the 1st round. smith will not get us close enough to upsetting one of these teams to warrent bringing him in during this season. howard is the better option and we don't need smith to do it. if we bring in smith and renounce his rights trying to sign howard it may offend both him and howard. don't forget they are best friends. would you work for a man paying less money than your current job that just fired your best friend?

[Rahat Huq]

^offending howard by renouncing smith is a good point - that thought came to my mind originally.

as for smith not being enough, i think i disagree. i think with smith in the lineup, the rockets still wouldnt be upper echelon, but i think theyde could very realistically climb to 6 and knock off #3.

[phaketrash]

I liked the idea at first glance, but the more I thought about it ,the more I became uncertain. It isn't really what we are giving up -- I agree w/ Rahat that we overvalue young prospects just like how, imo. the nba overvalues nba draft picks even in a weak draft. Then again, I'm rather risk averse so Morey's "gambles" have always been my style.

My problem is I don't even think it gives us an extra 10% at landing Howard. As long as we overachieve, it shows our potential. Doing better w/ Smith with no plans to keep Smith doesn't showcase what Howard would be signing up for accurately. It'd be even worse if we traded for Smith and then UNDERachieved. We'd then lower our chances at landing D12. It is close enough of a wash for me that I feel hesitant about giving up TJones.

On a side note, I am a bit confused -- I often seen the $30M that D12 is giving up bandied about. I assume this is both the extra % LAL can give him + a 5th yr right? If so, why in reality would it even come close to $30M? It isn't like by magic D12's 5th yr disappears -- he will still turn 32 lol. He will still most likely sign another K. The only issues I can see is that signing for a 5th yr at 32 means you are probably valued less and will receive less money; or a late injury might screw you over even more. But it is pretty simple math to find the expected value of what that 5th yr might be once risk and lower value is calculated in, and the result will undoubtedly be less than $30M...but not $30M less haha. Maybe it is $15M, so he is just leaving $15M on the table (shave off a few more million due to half the games in TX = no income tax), etc.

[Stephen]

Phaketrash,
Part of the $30mil comes from the larger annual raise allowed for signing your own FA. You get an extra 3% if you re-sign w/your old team.
If Howard started out at $20mil,he would get an extra $600,000 his second yr,an extra $1.2mil his third and an extra $1.8mil in his fourth yr.
That's an extra $3.6mil over four yrs.
Plus it's hard to imagine someone giving Howard a $26mil deal when he's 32. His contract after this one will be a severe paycut,something like KG and his $18mil,then $12mil deals.

[thejohnnygold]

Did no one even read my previous comment???

It's not over-valuing the assets. It's the weird combination of giving up said assets for a player that you want to use to recruit another player that won't actually be here when the other player is so that at the end you have given up your assets, the player you traded those assets for, and now you want this other guy, Dwight, to look at your squad and say, yeah, that looks great...no best friend, no depth, no financial flexibility, nothing to trade, no more up-and-coming youngsters. Let's do this!

Remember, Atlanta doesn't do this trade for our scraps. They are taking the nice pieces. T-Jones. D-Mo. One of PPat or MM. Toney Douglas. Delfino. It all goes. Then, once Smith is gone. We have a starting 5....and Royce White.

I would much rather go with one of the two options from the JJ redick thread....preferably OJ Mayo. I think that is a realistic opportunity and much cheaper, with retained assets. If that goes down you're looking at Lin, Harden, Parsons, PF-X, Howard, with a bench group of Beverley, Mayo, Morris, PF-X, and Asik.....plus any combination in between. Is the PF Jones? D-Mo? Ppat? who cares? That is awesome awesome awesome!

[thejohnnygold]

....and another thing. The bidding war is getting ridiculous. Hard to say what's real and what's not, but if the Rox are to make any serious offer it would have to be a big one....it is entirely possible it would include Asik which kills our play-off dreams for this year and locks down our first round draft pick again. Please, Mr. Morey, just walk away from this one.

[rockets best fan]

thejohnnygold:
i'm with you on this one. we can not lose sight of our long term goals. in the morey contract extension thread i made a point of morey having great long term vision.we can not sell off valued assets on short term fixes. that's exactly what is being purposed here. the players we will be loosing may very well become good long term players and we will have sold them off on a cheap thrill. i'm not on board with that at all. NO TRADE AT ALL THIS DEADLINE...THAT'S WHAT THE ROCKETS SHOULD AND WILL DO. if we make one it will be minor... just renting cap room till summer. morey has given us a clear path to follow for team improvement. we need to be patient. fools jump in where a wise man will pause. we have everything going for us right now. don't mess it up on chasing other people's castoffs. sorry had to rant on that for a minutes

[thejohnnygold]

Yeah, it's not that I wouldn't love to see J. Smith play for the rox....just not at that cost....no way. I think he should be the second-third highest paid player on a team....no max deal for you, sir.

[rockets best fan]

i'm not saying I wouldn't chase josh in FA. if we are unable to land howard he's not a bad backup plan, but taking the risk he may walk and giving up assets at the same time........that does not compute we have a hold host of options if we just wait. I have been saying it all year that the way teams tossed money around last year would come back to haunt them. we are starting to see the effects of that. you have more teams trying to dump money than not, but don't mistake this little leak in the dam for the dam bursting event. in july the new cba starts. the teams who have been over the tax threshold will become desparate. the days of playing with monopoly money are over. all you hear now is how important cap room is. being under the salary cap in this new landscape will afford us a crack at much better deals than you see now ..........just wait please

[Ostrow]

Mark Stein is reporting that it is more likely that the Rockets are going to use their cap room to try to acquire another first round draft pick from a team looking to get under the luxury tax.

[rockets best fan]

if I know morey that means he has spotted someone he thinks we can aquire below market value