21 replies to this topic

[thejohnnygold]

A quote from Jacob Frankel, HoopChalk


"X factor: Patrick Patterson is the perfect power forward for Houston, and he's criminally underrated. He hits corner 3-pointers and is the best big man running the floor in the NBA this side of Nikola Pekovic (1.43 points per play in transition, ninth in the NBA, per Synergy). He knows exactly how and when to cut in the Rockets' complex pick-and-roll. He torched David Lee all night to the tune of 12 points on 6-of-9 shooting."

As much as we have lamented our PF position we might be better off than we think. These guys are still maturing and people are starting to take notice. They don't have to be stars--just studs--for us to succeed.

[bboley24]

i don't care how many boards Asik pulls down. A starting PF in this league with as many shots as we jack up should be averaging more than 5 rpg... It's great to have a stretch 4 but honestly, id love that extra 3 -5 rebounds for that extra 12-15 points. I love the guy to death but I honestly believe he's just incredible trade bait.

http://www.facebook....&type=3

[thejohnnygold]

I hear ya...not sure about your math there...3-5 more rebounds might net +8 points...tops. Remember, our 4's play outside the arc mostly in order to give Harden, Lin, and Parsons better driving lanes. Once they drive, instead of crashing the boards their responsibilities are to get back on D. It's a philosophy thing--not an ability thing.

I'm not implying he is so valuable as to not consider trading him. I am saying, within the context of the Rockets, he has a lot of value as he fits our system very, very well. Plus, as I said before he is still getting better...

Consider the Miami Heat. They have Udonis Haslem. Among other PF's in this league he is an afterthought, but they consider him invaluable.

[thejohnnygold]

I will also add this...

We have noted before, in other threads, that our PF's pretty much split the time 50/50. If PPat were played like a "top" PF we'll assume he gets 39 minutes (which, luckily enough, is excactly 50% more than the 26 he gets now) we can pretty much (I know it's a slippery slope) extrapolate these numbers for him:

PTS: 17.4
RBS: 7.0
AST: 1.7
BLK: .9
STL: .6

All this while shooting +50% from the field and taking 70% of his shots from range. Also, he is listed in ALL 20 of our top 5-man units. ALL 20! Not even Mr. Harden has that distinction. More Patterson love to come...

[thejohnnygold]

Found some actual numbers for PPat from basketball-reference where he plays "starter" minutes.

In 14 games, Patterson averaged 34 minutes. In those games he posted these actual numbers:

.505 FG% .417 3FG% 16.6 PTS 5.9 RBS 1.5 AST

Here are some player comparisons with the same splits:

JOSH SMITH
.470 FG% .369 3FG% 17.6 PTS 8.9 RBS 4.6 AST

Blake Griffin
.521 FG% .200 3FG% 19.3 PTS 9.1 RBS 3.4 AST

Paul Millsap
.481 FG% .316 3FG% 16.6 PTS 8.7 RBS 2.7 AST

Lamarcus Aldridge
.478 FG% .000 3FG% 20.2 PTS 8.8 RBS 2.5 AST

Kevin Love (Note: went with year 3 (same as PPAT) due to injury)
.470 FG% .419 3FG% 19.2 PTS 14.7 RBS 2.8 AST

Zach Randolph
.476 FG% .143 3FG% 15.7 PTS 11.5 RBS 1.4 AST

Tim Duncan
.510 FG% 1.00 3FG% 19.6 PTS 12.2 RBS 2.7 AST

Pau Gasol (Note: I went with his 3rd year stats as this year is a clusterF&*% for him)
.482 FG% .267 3FG% 17.7 PTS 7.7 RBS 2.5 AST

David West
.497 FG% .273 3FG% 17.8 PTS 7.5 RBS 3.1 AST

Ryan Anderson
.457 FG% .429 3FG% 18.6 PTS 6.5 RBS 1.4 AST


OK, only 3 players are more, or as, efficient inside and out as PPAT: Duncan, K. Love, and Ryan Anderson. Yes, some players rebounding numbers are superior, but they play inside vs. outside. All in all, that comparison list is compelling given the Rockets' penchant for efficiency in a stretch 4. Besides Love and Anderson (not known for their defense) is there another player who could fare better for us in that role while supplying sound defense? Not sure....oh, and don't forget that nice $2.1 million contract.

Apparently I'm making Patterson my Valentine this year...

[phaketrash]

I've warmed up to 2Pat while cooling off to MM (though neither have wooed me sufficiently). I like 2Pat for our team right now. Do we still need a star interior presence? I think so, but 2Pat would be great off the bench or something. Imagine if we actually landed D12 this summer and decided to do a combination of Twin Towers and separating Asik and Howard's minutes.

Lin/Harden/Parsons/Howard/Asik starting, with a bench of Beverly/Anderson/some new filler or let's be crazy and say MM/2Pat/Howard or Asik. That's not even counting Tjones or White or DMo who we'd have (and prob some of the above would be moved to get the role players we actually need instead of just a bunch of tweener 4's lol). Wow, the potential there is making me salivate.

[Sir Thursday]

What we really need to settle the "Does PPat's lack of rebounds hurt the team?" question is to have a look at overall rebounding performance of the team when he's on the floor. What percentage of available rebounds are successfully corralled by the Rockets when he is on the court, and how does that compare to the league/team average? At the end of the day, his personal rebounding totals are irrelevant if the team is good overall - it's perfectly possible to have a positive impact on team rebounding without necessarily putting up great stat totals. See Hayes, Chuck for example number one. Unfortunately I don't know where you would find such statistics on the web - I'm sure someone has them somewhere, but they might be hidden away in a team's database or on Synergy or something like that.

Another avenue for investigation - if the hypothesis is that someone else (eg. Asik) is grabbing all of his boards, then it should be possible to prove by looking at the Patterson's rebounding performance with and without Asik on the court. Does he grab more boards when he's not playing alongside Asik? How about when he's occasionally put at Centre in a smallball lineup? Finally, I think it's better to use the Rebounding Percentage statistic when answering these questions, as it is a fairer measure of performance than the raw numbers (which are quite dependent on the number of shots your opponents miss).

ST

[thejohnnygold]

The information is scattered, but there is lots.

82games has lots of stuff here (mid-way down is a chart titled "Player 48-Minute Production by Position"...the numbers are staggering, but I have no context for who they were against.

basketball reference has tons of data and is what I used for the above info.

Here are some on/off the court splits from basketball reference

It's all a bit much. Maybe you can digest all this and give us your take, ST? At a glance, I did not see much difference....but I may be looking in the wrong places...

Also, this must all be weighed with opportunity cost in mind. Are the extra rebounds he could grab worth what we give up in using him that way instead of how we currently use him? I still hold that if we want a glass cleaner then we should get one. Patterson is not that guy, but this thread is predicated on that notion. Ppat is a floor spacer for the rockets that can efficiently shoot outside, mid-range, and at the rim. If we played him in the post he would still be able to do certain things and his rebounds would increase, but what does that do to the offense as a whole?

[Ostrow]

It looked to me like the Rockets were marginally better rebounding w/ him on the floor although it was confusing. It's close either way.

[phaketrash]

It looked to me like the Rockets were marginally better rebounding w/ him on the floor although it was confusing. It's close either way.

Probably is rather convoluted, but if rebounding is about the same or only marginally better with him on the floor, that's a negative for 2Pat right? Means his presence essentially does not affect our rebounding numbers, i.e., he does not contribute?

[Cooper]

I know he plays outside a lot but it'd be nice if he was closer to 7-8 boards, but I like his shooting and he plays solid on ball defense. could certainly do worse than him at pf

[Ostrow]

Probably is rather convoluted, but if rebounding is about the same or only marginally better with him on the floor, that's a negative for 2Pat right? Means his presence essentially does not affect our rebounding numbers, i.e., he does not contribute?

People are arguing that he has a negative effect on rebounding. The numbers show that he doesn't. While I'd like him to rebound more, I think his number would look better if he played full time starter minutes.

[thejohnnygold]

He is essentially a "strong small forward" in our offensive system....we just don't have power forwards...it is a misnomer in my opinion to use the term on PPAT or MM. If we view them through this new lens the rebound numbers are more in-line with the SF position. PF's get rebounds because they hang out by the rim. That's how it works. Our guys are wing players that get back on D to prevent fast break points rather than fight for an extra possession. I really don't fault them for this. They weren't drafted to be rebounders. I get that rebounds help out immensely, but if you look at our overall numbers we are 10th in the league in rebounding. I realize that our higher pace of play affects this, but think about it. We shoot lay-ups and threes. The plan is for the lay-ups to go in or draw a foul and threes often have long rebounds that clear the interior players anyways. The only addition that makes sense at the four is a springy, highly athletic jumper that can grab those missed lay-ups and put them in. Problem is, those guys tend to be inferior shooters so that would be about all they bring to the table...and some blocked shots. I think Morey is quietly trying to re-invent the position....Shhhhhhhh

[Sir Thursday]

He is essentially a "strong small forward" in our offensive system....we just don't have power forwards...it is a misnomer in my opinion to use the term on PPAT or MM. If we view them through this new lens the rebound numbers are more in-line with the SF position. PF's get rebounds because they hang out by the rim. That's how it works. Our guys are wing players that get back on D to prevent fast break points rather than fight for an extra possession. I really don't fault them for this. They weren't drafted to be rebounders. I get that rebounds help out immensely, but if you look at our overall numbers we are 10th in the league in rebounding. I realize that our higher pace of play affects this, but think about it. We shoot lay-ups and threes. The plan is for the lay-ups to go in or draw a foul and threes often have long rebounds that clear the interior players anyways. The only addition that makes sense at the four is a springy, highly athletic jumper that can grab those missed lay-ups and put them in. Problem is, those guys tend to be inferior shooters so that would be about all they bring to the table...and some blocked shots. I think Morey is quietly trying to re-invent the position....Shhhhhhhh

I disagree with your assertion that we don't have Power Forwards. In the offense, it may be true that Patterson and Morris are further away from the basket in order to spread the floor, but defensively they quite clearly fall into the 4 slot - they are the ones who are asked to alternate with the Centre on picking up defensive assignments on the big men. And although they do it sometimes they are generally slightly out of their comfort zone trying to guard a wing player out at the three point line.

Re: the on/off court data - it looks as though the Rockets rebound slightly better with Patterson on the floor than with someone else in his spot. Sounds like good news, but there are two main caveats - who he spends most of his time on the court with and whether Morris is helping out the rebounding cause either. I'll have a dig through 82games.com (thanks for pointing that site out, by the way JG - I use basketball-reference.com a fair amount but haven't used 82games.com before) over the weekend and see if I can find any data that might help qualify the on/off court split numbers.

ST

[thejohnnygold]

Yeah, I'm not saying they do not fulfill certain power forward duties--especially on defense where the opponent more than likely is a more traditional player for that position. I just feel like we are trying to fit a peg into a hole that doesn't quite correlate. I think it might aid in our thought processes if we step away from the stigmas and pre-defined ideals of the position. I'm guessing, like me, you grew up watching power forwards like Karl Malone, McHale, Barkley, Otis Thorpe, Charles Oakley, Rodman, etc. All of those guys liked to mix it up inside whether on offense, or defense, or both. I don't feel that PPAt or MM fit in that mold and that it is by design on Morey/McHale's part. I also think it is that kind of player we are sorely lacking moreso than any other. Not necessarily a star...more of a Thorpe/Oakley...rebounding and defensive monsters. Like Dwight Howard without the reality show that comes with him.

Remember when Barkley was with the Rockets and got tired of hearing about Rodman's rebounding prowess? Chuck said, I'll lead the league in rebounding just to prove that I can. He came up just short, but still managed to score and maintain his other on-court activities. It was impressive.

[rocketrick]

Don't forget with Asik's offensive limitations, the Rockets don't need a traditional 4 as that would only resull in having your 4 and 5 clog the lane preventing Harden, Lin and Parsons from driving to the hole and kicking out to the open guy or finish at the hole. With 2Pat and MM, the Rockets always have 2 players to put in the 4 (sometimes Parsons even moves over to the 4 spot depending on matchups) giving Coach McHale the opportunity to play the hot guy or the guy that is getting the job done game by game. If 2Pat could ever develop a more consistent 3 point shot from around the free throw line out, that would create even more openings for the Rockets players driving to the hole to exploit.

[thejohnnygold]

Don't forget with Asik's offensive limitations, the Rockets don't need a traditional 4 as that would only resull in having your 4 and 5 clog the lane preventing Harden, Lin and Parsons from driving to the hole and kicking out to the open guy or finish at the hole. With 2Pat and MM, the Rockets always have 2 players to put in the 4 (sometimes Parsons even moves over to the 4 spot depending on matchups) giving Coach McHale the opportunity to play the hot guy or the guy that is getting the job done game by game. If 2Pat could ever develop a more consistent 3 point shot from around the free throw line out, that would create even more openings for the Rockets players driving to the hole to exploit.

Patterson is already an above average 3 pt shooter...not sure what you mean by, "from the free throw line out"...could you elaborate on this plan?

[rocketrick]

2Pat is definitely an above average 3 point shooter but he is pretty much constrained to doing so only from the corners whereas MM has a wider range from the 3 point line. If 2Pat could develop a more consistent 3 point shot from the wing area or perhaps that shot Scola was so good at shooting from at the top of the key between the circle and free throw line, that would help create even better spacing as the guy driving to the hole would have an option to go to the corner where 2Pat usually is at.

[thejohnnygold]

PATRICK PATTERSON

MARCUS MORRIS

Check out these shot charts for PPAT and MM. Seems to confirm your assertion that Patterson is only effective from the corners (on threes) and Morris is much more effective from the wings and top of the key--but not the corners. The problem for Morris is those are the only areas he shoots well from (excluding lay-ups/dunks).

As far as Patterson shooting from the FT line area I'd say he is doing pretty well overall according to this chart.

All in all, pretty solid numbers shooting 61.7 % in the paint, 49.1% on jumpers, and 37.2% on threes.

Looking at the last 30 days it seems the Coaches have figured out his limitations as well. His efficiency numbers are increasing and he barely shoots from his weakest spots.

[ale11]

It would be nice that PPat gets more rebounds, but it's obvious that he is not traditionally placed as a 4 on offense. What I would like to know, and it would be the most important thing for me to know is how much rebounds does the opposing power forward gets with PPat on the court? I don't really mind him not getting 7-8 rebounds a game as long as the guy he is guarding/being guarded by doesn't make him pay for not rebounding.