18 replies to this topic

[Red94]

New post: Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets on 1/26/2013

[timetodienow1234567]

Spot on analysis. I like your point about the difference in Harden and Lin. While I believe Harden has the potential to be a superstar, until he cuts down on his turnovers he won't lead a team to a chip. But he's young and he'll learn. Lin was highly criticized for his turnovers. The only difference I can see that can explain this difference in treatment is that Lin is Asian while Harden is African American. I think we should let them both play through them and then show them how to fix their mistakes in film sessions. While Harden has a ton of upside, letting him get away with all of those turnovers isn't "coaching." You can't have one standard for Lin and another for Harden and expect to be successful. The Spurs won chips, the Pistons won one, the Celtics won one, and even the Lakers/Bulls were all held accountable by Phil. All of those teams were held to the same standard. The coach did not give a "pass" to the star.

[thenit]

I agree on the assumption that Lin being Asian was the reason people love to point out about his turnovers. His 3.6 last year during the Linsanity was high, but in no way extreme so that every commentator would say, " yea his numbers doens't mean anything look at his high turnover" whereas e.g Derrick Rose last 2 season had a 3.1 and 3.4 TO rate but no one ever say that he turned the ball over a lot it's just part of job like Harden is doing at the moment. It's the same with Lin's quick first step being describe as deceptively fast or that some would describe white players as well. You are either fast or not, there is no such thing as deceptively fast, just a pet peeve of mine when commentators says that.

[Cooper]

Harden doesn't take as big a rap from his turnovers because he scores a lot, also Lin is the pg and expected to take care of ball more plus recently he hasn't had that many assists. I think in most cases his race plays a only small role in his turnover scrutiny.

[thejohnnygold]

I agree that Harden needs to be held accountable for his abysmal turnover rate. As for Lin, I would say it is the "quality" of his turnovers. A lot of them just look like amateur mistakes and are subsequently more readily noted and criticized by observers. I don't think race has anything to do with it....if anything, it is celebrity that is attracting the negative attention. In America we like a lot of things....one of those is putting people on pedestals and then sadistically bludgeoning them with judgment over every little thing they say and do. D. Rose gets a pass because 1) his assist to turnover rate is close to 3-1 (unlike Lin's 2-1) and 2) he consistently wins.

a slight side note, if anyone hasn't seen Dave Chappelle's "Inside The Actor's Studio" interview it is a must see. Not only is Dave entertaining as always, but he offers great insights into the business of celebrity.

If it is racism then that makes it easy to dismiss....who cares what racists think? Their opinions are irrelevant. Just my 2 cents.

[Dan G]

Harden doesn't take as big a rap from his turnovers because he scores a lot, also Lin is the pg and expected to take care of ball more plus recently he hasn't had that many assists. I think in most cases his race plays a only small role in his turnover scrutiny.

During the Linsanity days, Lin scored alot as well but still got scrutinized for every turnover. Also, it is hard to get an assist these days if you rarely have the ball in your hands. It takes having the ball in your hands, passing and the other person to make the shot in order to get an assist, which Lin has not had as many opportunities to do so but is still averaging more assists than Harden despite having a much lower usage rate. Finally, I think we all know Harden pretty much is playing the point guard position more often than not. He may not be guarding the PG but he definitely has the ball in his hands and controls playmaking more than Lin does.

Having said that all of that, I agree with Johnny that race to me has very little to do with it. Lin was probably more scrutnized because of the celebrity factor, playing in New York and that sample size was all everyone had to go on. For Harden, he has been in the league for 3 1/2 years now and turnovers have not really been his problem until he became "the man" for the Rockets. Still, he should be held more accountable for his turnovers and I agree until he can cut down on them, the Rockets won't go as far as they could.

[thenit]

I'm not saying that people are rascist but as your point in regards of D. Rose
his assist was 7.7 to 3.4 in 2010-11 season and 7.9 to 3.1 which is about 2.5 to 1 assist per turnover, which is slightly better than Lin's. Its just stereotyping a player. Rose is an all-star and he has won a lot of games. Just saying there are a lot of other players for example K. Irving, Lilliard Chalmers who are all hoovering around the 2-1 ratio and they don't get the label turn over prone. Nevertheless Lin needs to be more assertive to show that he should have more ball in his hands

[thenit]

Also I believe lin will get smoked defensively by Williams due to him always going under the screen and williams is a good 3 point shooter. Also Linsanity started against him

[Red94]

New post: Houston Rockets 119, Brooklyn Nets 106 - Deron Williams Can't Stop the Clicking Rockets

[Cooper]

They played really well tonight

[datruth]

this a better team with lin handling the ball. Harden is treated differently than the rest of the team and that must stop.

[thenit]

I was right about Lin not being able to guard D williams. I only saw the first quarter and the rockets looked good in sharing the ball and Lin initiated the offense. He did have 3 turnovers the first quarter when I left at the break.

Based on the box score and recap on various places, it seems like Lin was allowed to continue to handle the more as the last two games despite the poor start. I believe that this is the way to go, so Harden don't have to spend too much energy on doing everything which will lead him to be a lot more efficient once we hand him the ball in the 4th quarter to lead the team. Sounds like it was an unselfish team tonight with harden 7 assist, parson with 11 and lin with 9. Thats Rockets BALL

[hubeijames]

D Williams was just hot the first quarter. He was contained for the rest of the game. Lin did fine on defense. In fact, the whole team has been playing uncharacteristically good defense the last two games. We won while only scoring 100 last night and tonight the Nets were completely dominated in the paint and only kept up thanks to having an outlier 3-pt shooting night.

Multiple dunks by Asik in a single game. Couldn't help but smile for the guy. Just amazing how quickly he's improving.

[feelingsupersonic]

I doubt Harden "gets treated differently" but I am pretty sure he has more trust from the coaches than anyone else on the roster. He has that trust because he is an elite player and no one else on the roster is near elite, no one else is even an all star or has that potential though a few might be close. One reason there are many turnovers on this team is just because this is a young team with little on court experience and furthermore these rotation players have come together from different teams for the most part. It is actually astonishing how well these Rockets have played when they are rolling and that is a testament to the roster assembled ( from big pieces to small pieces, Harden to Delfino, and everything in between, Asik), the coaching staff and Harden's leadership.

[Alituro]

@feelingsupersonic, you're spot on. Not only that, but when a team is constantly pushing the tempo like our Rockets like to do, the passes in transition are way more risky than passes in a half court set. It was mentioned somewhere that perhaps a high turnover rate was a red herring, that there is no direct correlation to a teams' success and their turnover rate. Some notable teams in the top half of the most turnover prone in the league thus far:
1. Rockets
2. Thunder
3. Spurs
4. Nuggets
5. Lakers
6. Warriors
7. Pacers
9. Hawks
13. Clippers
Harden wouldn't get passes on his turnovers either if he was only putting up 14 pts per game. So if he puts up 30 points but has about 4 more turnovers than you would like to see and the opposition is shooting 50%, then those turnovers countered about 4 pts out of the 30. Big Whoop.

[thejohnnygold]

@feelingsupersonic, you're spot on. Not only that, but when a team is constantly pushing the tempo like our Rockets like to do, the passes in transition are way more risky than passes in a half court set. It was mentioned somewhere that perhaps a high turnover rate was a red herring, that there is no direct correlation to a teams' success and their turnover rate. Some notable teams in the top half of the most turnover prone in the league thus far:
1. Rockets
2. Thunder
3. Spurs
4. Nuggets
5. Lakers
6. Warriors
7. Pacers
9. Hawks
13. Clippers
Harden wouldn't get passes on his turnovers either if he was only putting up 14 pts per game. So if he puts up 30 points but has about 4 more turnovers than you would like to see and the opposition is shooting 50%, then those turnovers countered about 4 pts out of the 30. Big Whoop.

Now you've got me thinking....

I am not sure TO's are a red herring. To isolate them ignores other factors such as rebounds, # of possessions, and opp TO's, etc. Ultimately, basketball comes down to execution of field goals. It doesn't matter too much what else you do if that function is lacking. Having said that, certain things can adjust your margin of error +/-.

(for ease of math we will ignore 3 pt shots and free throws...they are important though)

Say Team A shoots 50% from the field. Given 100 possessions in a game it stands to reason they will score 100 points. Easy enough.

So, we can discern that points ( X ) are a function of possessions ( Y ) times fg% ( A ). Stated mathematically that is X=AY.

So, using basic algebra it is easy to see that in order to increase points you would want to increase possessions (offensive rebounds and steals) and efficiency (assists, shot selection, free throws and 3 pointers come into play here).

Conversely, things like turnovers, personal fouls, and bad shots tend to decrease these things.

So, say that team A shoots 50% still. They play team B that shoots 40%, but team B wins the offensive rebound battle by 12, has 6 fewer turnovers and 8 fewer personal fouls. Assuming 100 possessions Team a scores 100 points - 6 points for the 50% conversion rate on the 6 extra turnovers which equals 94. Team B gets 100 possessions, plus 12 extra for rebounds plus 6 extra for the turnovers. that is 118 possessions at 40% which equals 94 points. Now, the game is won at the free throw line. Assuming each team shoots 70% the 5 extra points from the free throw line for team B are the difference in the game--all other things held equal.

So what does all this mean?

It means Morey is looking at the right things. He dissects the game into it's components to find the highest efficiency factors and then seeks out players that excel at those things. (kevin martin was amazing at drawing fouls and converting free throws - the most efficient play in basketball aside from a break-away dunk--and now look at Mr. Harden among league leaders in free throws taken.) Asik is a rebounding monster (currently #3 in the league). Three point shots give you a 50% increase in points with only a 15% drop in efficiency. Hence, Houston drives to the basket, shoots threes, and tries to get fouled. If we can limit our turnovers and increase our rebounding from the PF position (although part of that lack of production is by design) we will be a force in this league plain and simple.

All that being said, none of this exists in a vacuum. Execution and consistency are crucial factors as well. We are applying percentages which are symbols of average performance over the course of time. Player X might average 16 points, but on any given night may score 26 or may only score 6....it averages out to 16.

OK, that is a lot to chew on....for me, this is a more thorough examination of the effect of turnovers plus other crucial game factors as a whole in the context of affecting win/loss totals.

[Sir Thursday]

I suspect that Morey, as is his wont, will not use the 'Turnovers' statistic by itself, but will instead break it down into Live-Ball turnovers and Dead-Ball turnovers. He has said many times that he believes the key to gaining a competitive advantage is not analysing existing statistics better, but having your own proprietary stats. And it stands to reason that live-ball turnovers are much more crippling to a team than dead-ball turnovers, since the latter gives the team a chance to set its defence. My impression of the Rockets' turnover issues is that while they give away a lot of them, they are mostly in situations where it is difficult for the opposing team to run-out, and as such Morey is less worried about them. You don't see cross-court passes picked off for the easy slam that often, for example.

ST

[thejohnnygold]

Interestingly enough, Houston leads the league in turnovers committed and is 6th in differential (as in 6th worst) with +1.56

Houston is almost dead even in personal fouls with only a +.05 differential

Houston is 13th with a +1 rebounding advantage

we are -2.3 in blocks per game (that is roughly equal to 4.6 points since blocks are usually on lay-ups and short, high percentage shots)

we are +.19 in steals per game...negligible

we are 10th in total assists and +.54 in differential (not much)

we shoot free throws 14th best at 75%

we shoot 45.6% fg, but our opponents shoot 45.7%

and we shoot 35.9% on 3's but opponents shoot 36.9%

What does all that say? It says we don't do anything particularly well...we are average across the board.

So how are we above average? Looky here....

1. We have shot 486-1,352 three pointers versus only 391-1,060 for our opponents.
2. We have shot 925-1,227 free throws versus only 783-1,016 for our opponents.
3. we average 18.7 fast break points per game 2nd only to Denver.
4. we average 100 possessions per game and rank 1st in that category.

These are the four most efficient scoring possibilities in basketball.

It isn't magic..it's just math.

[thejohnnygold]

Sir Thursday you are very correct. I would love to see Morey's stats....I only have access to what's on the old interweb.